Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

[rmc523]

Does anyone think us having the All-Star game this year will be a factor in Loria's willingness to spend? In other words, does anyone think he'd be willing to open the pocketbook more than usual to look good for the All-Star game? Obviously it didn't work out in 2012, but that showed he might be willing to spend when the spotlight is going to be on him.

[thatnewguy]

I think, if anything, the Marlins at least have a big opportunity to do away a lot of the ill will that exists between them and the fanbase with how they handle the offseason.

They were uncharacteristically professional and first-class regarding the Jose situation and I think a lot of people because of that are willing to return to this team if they don't let the worst-case scenario happen, which is continue to do the same shit and remain irrelevant before going into another rebuild.

If there was a year to go back to that $100m payroll figure, or even $90-95m, this would be the year, no? Wouldn't being competitive, in a year where you lost your franchise face, in a year where you have the ASG, and in a year where it will likely be the same teams in the mix (including them, I feel like) help the long-term viability of this franchise? Why wouldn't you want to go for it? 2017 might just be the most important year the Marlins have ever had, and this offseason is no exception. They better not fuck it up.

[nny]

Don't necessarily think it should happen (especially with the ASG), but the further removed I am from the tragedy the further the understanding of just how much better long term it would be to blow this up.

They need to add a lot just to get back to a .500 team, and there really isn't any avenues from them to even add those pieces. There's no #1 to be had, so basically the hope is that you can some how get a #2 without any net loss positionally, Chen goes back to being a #3, Conley improves to a #2, you get some other guy to come in to be a #2/#3 (or hope Phelps is that but then you need his replacement in the pen [Capps would sure be nice right about now...]), and Koehler can do Koehler things at #5. And all that going right and everyone stays relatively healthy (Since our #6 is still Nicolino), that really just gets us back to being a .500 team trying to claw it's way into the #2 wild card spot.

The decisions the FO made the past few years have just killed the rotation now. You can almost run out a full rotation with what they gave up in a two year span (Disco/Martes/Heaney/Rodon) with only the Heaney trade showing any kind of value. It gets beaten into the ground but for good reason.

Go for it this year fine but if you're not a 85+ win team, dumpster it

[tjfla]

Does anyone think us having the All-Star game this year will be a factor in Loria's willingness to spend? In other words, does anyone think he'd be willing to open the pocketbook more than usual to look good for the All-Star game? Obviously it didn't work out in 2012, but that showed he might be willing to spend when the spotlight is going to be on him.

He might but sounds more like if we didn't have the ASG he would be blowing it up this offseason. If Jose was still around I would say 100 million payroll easily and blown up in 2017-18 if they didn't make the playoffs. There is NO direction right now but don't look for them to get to crazy besides Hech and Ozuna because of the ASG

[emkayseven]

I imagine that he sells after 2017 or in 2018 anyway. He's getting old, the ASG is what provides the value, and he'll be out of his contractual obligation to owe the city money with a sale after the ballpark construction. And yeah, usually before a sale you blow things up so a new owner has no major debts. I think that's why the Stanton opt out clauses are where they are too, since he can opt out after 2020 the new owner knows he might be rid of that salary if Stanton is good, and if he's not, well, at least Loria isn't on the hook for it.

I happen to think this team is around .500 as is with health, the thing that solidifies it as a .500 team is the depth. And I happen to think that it isn't actually hard to make this team competitive. I don't think you need dominant starting pitching anymore to compete, the offense is the strength but it still sucks because of injuries and lack of depth and a few black holes. It just takes a little money but I actually think that with this FA class and some movable pieces you can make it happen.

Here's a list of guys who are FAs who are 32 or younger and hit more than 20 home runs last year: Wilson Ramos, Mitch Moreland, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Desmond, Neil Walker, Jonathan Lucroy, Michael Saunders, Justin Turner, Mark Trumbo. A lot of those guys don't work because of positions and contract demands. But a few do: Desmond (still think even after his monster season he'll be undervalued on the market) and Saunders jump out. Saunders in particular is going to be undervalued because of his awful second half. He might only get a 2 year deal.

Then guys like Sean Rodriguez hit 18 home runs (I happen to think he's a great fit for us given positional flexibility and from Miami). He's the kind of guy you sign to a 2 or 3 year deal at 4 or 5 million per to be your first guy off the bench. Let him pinch hit, and if anyone anywhere on the diamond gets injured he's a capable enough starter that you don't cringe when he comes to the plate. These are the kinds of guys who make teams like the Cubs, because when there's an injury there's someone capable behind them.

You sign Saunders and Rodriguez, trade Ozuna and Hech for a starter, and maybe you can squeeze another lower end starter or solid reliever out of the FA market. As down as you want to be on this team, in this division right now, and with a bunch of NL teams also in either questionable mode or rebuild mode, it's a team that competes. Wasting money on SP isn't productive. I actually agree with Samson when he says SP contracts are almost never worth it. You can get by with 2-3-5-5-5 if the bullpen is deep enough and the offense is strong enough, especially when despite the changes to the dimensions we're STILL one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league.

[tjfla]

Rosenthal says we are trying to trade Rodney instead of keeping him around

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I imagine that he sells after 2017 or in 2018 anyway. He's getting old, the ASG is what provides the value, and he'll be out of his contractual obligation to owe the city money with a sale after the ballpark construction. And yeah, usually before a sale you blow things up so a new owner has no major debts. I think that's why the Stanton opt out clauses are where they are too, since he can opt out after 2020 the new owner knows he might be rid of that salary if Stanton is good, and if he's not, well, at least Loria isn't on the hook for it.

I happen to think this team is around .500 as is with health, the thing that solidifies it as a .500 team is the depth. And I happen to think that it isn't actually hard to make this team competitive. I don't think you need dominant starting pitching anymore to compete, the offense is the strength but it still sucks because of injuries and lack of depth and a few black holes. It just takes a little money but I actually think that with this FA class and some movable pieces you can make it happen.

Here's a list of guys who are FAs who are 32 or younger and hit more than 20 home runs last year: Wilson Ramos, Mitch Moreland, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Desmond, Neil Walker, Jonathan Lucroy, Michael Saunders, Justin Turner, Mark Trumbo. A lot of those guys don't work because of positions and contract demands. But a few do: Desmond (still think even after his monster season he'll be undervalued on the market) and Saunders jump out. Saunders in particular is going to be undervalued because of his awful second half. He might only get a 2 year deal.

Then guys like Sean Rodriguez hit 18 home runs (I happen to think he's a great fit for us given positional flexibility and from Miami). He's the kind of guy you sign to a 2 or 3 year deal at 4 or 5 million per to be your first guy off the bench. Let him pinch hit, and if anyone anywhere on the diamond gets injured he's a capable enough starter that you don't cringe when he comes to the plate. These are the kinds of guys who make teams like the Cubs, because when there's an injury there's someone capable behind them.

You sign Saunders and Rodriguez, trade Ozuna and Hech for a starter, and maybe you can squeeze another lower end starter or solid reliever out of the FA market. As down as you want to be on this team, in this division right now, and with a bunch of NL teams also in either questionable mode or rebuild mode, it's a team that competes. Wasting money on SP isn't productive. I actually agree with Samson when he says SP contracts are almost never worth it. You can get by with 2-3-5-5-5 if the bullpen is deep enough and the offense is strong enough, especially when despite the changes to the dimensions we're STILL one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league.

The problem is some of those guys will get a QO which means 1 yr 17 million.

Rodriguez could be Rojas. Get rid of Hech,Rojas to SS and Rodriguez becomes the UT guy

Ya before the Jose thing the "plan" mentioned was go for it this year and next year blow it up. Jeff wants his ASG and free pub before he goes

[emkayseven]

Rumors are after his second half Saunders won't be tendered a QO which is why I think he makes sense.

To me Rodriguez makes so much sense as a super utility guy it's going to be painful to watch a smart team sign him.

[rmc523]

I wasn't sure if this deserved it's own thread, but there's talk that the next CBA could significantly reduce revenue sharing, which would obviously affect us.

Putting a postive spin on that, I wonder if that would encourage Loria to finally sell.

[tjfla]

I wasn't sure if this deserved it's own thread, but there's talk that the next CBA could significantly reduce revenue sharing, which would obviously affect us.

Putting a postive spin on that, I wonder if that would encourage Loria to finally sell.

Not really sure it would affect us since the millions just goes into Jeff's pocket instead of the budget. Like Oakland/TB-instead of using it on salary,a few clubs are putting into the owners pocket and then trying to say they need it for daily operations/stadiums which is why alot of the big market teams are complaining

When they came up with revenue sharing,it was about giving the smaller markets more cash to increase the team's budget(salary). However these owners are so cheap they are using it for other purposes then crying that they can't compete because the Cubs/Red Sox/Dodgers spend so much.

[rmc523]

Well it could potentially affect us because he could divert what would be payroll I to his funds to account for the loss of revenue sharing. And so my point is that without the free money going into his pockets, would he want to hang onto the team?

[fish16]

it's so ridiculous that it's 2016, we've been in this stadium for 5 years, and we are still talking about this piece of shit not spending money.

[lou]

Don't necessarily think it should happen (especially with the ASG), but the further removed I am from the tragedy the further the understanding of just how much better long term it would be to blow this up.

They need to add a lot just to get back to a .500 team, and there really isn't any avenues from them to even add those pieces. There's no #1 to be had, so basically the hope is that you can some how get a #2 without any net loss positionally, Chen goes back to being a #3, Conley improves to a #2, you get some other guy to come in to be a #2/#3 (or hope Phelps is that but then you need his replacement in the pen [Capps would sure be nice right about now...]), and Koehler can do Koehler things at #5. And all that going right and everyone stays relatively healthy (Since our #6 is still Nicolino), that really just gets us back to being a .500 team trying to claw it's way into the #2 wild card spot.

The decisions the FO made the past few years have just killed the rotation now. You can almost run out a full rotation with what they gave up in a two year span (Disco/Martes/Heaney/Rodon) with only the Heaney trade showing any kind of value. It gets beaten into the ground but for good reason.

Go for it this year fine but if you're not a 85+ win team, dumpster it

Naylor was rated Padres # 26 prospect by fangraphs. Just dropping that footnote of what is in the farm (i.e. not much).

[dim]

MLB.com currently has him listed at #4 (don't know how outdated that is). That's a pretty significant difference. I can't imagine Naylor being below a top 20 prospect in a farm.

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Just checked the article and Fangraphs has a ton of rookie ball players in the top 15 including a 16 year old. Not saying it's wrong but it seems projected potential is getting far more weight with Fangraphs than actual production.

[HUGG]

Naylor hit .252/.264/.353 post trade, and has a career .720 OPS, production isn't making much of a case for him either.

[nny]

In the California league, too. Place is worse than the PCL and he barely broke a 600 OPS