Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

[fish16]

As a low budget team you have to get value. You can pay a guy like Chapman top reliever money and hope his stuff translates into top starter material, which it will. He will proabbably be limited in his first year innings wise as you stretch his arm out, but as the contract goes on you will most likely have a value as you will be paying top closer money which is significantly lower than top starter money. Im all about value, which is why i supported trading Jose this offseason to begin with to the Red Sox for Moncada +, but that is besides the point. As a low budget team you need to do things to get the most out of your money. Even if they were to get injured, it is worth the risk of getting the most bang for your buck when you have Loria as your owner unwilling to pay more than 70-80 million in salary.

As it stands and due to the completely awful circumstances which i still cant wrap my head around for so many reasons, our rotation is complete and utter trash. Even if Chen and Conley are their best case scenario next year, which is far from a certainty, we have a flat out bad rotation. The SP market this offseason is awful and we need to take a risk, which isnt really a risk, if we want to be anything other than a ceiling of a .500 team next year.

And Chapman was a starter in Cuba, so its not out of the question that he can do so here.

[emkayseven]

Chapman hasn't started in 6 years. He's not a starter anymore.

I wish teams were more forward thinking to be honest. I know there's no chance we (or anyone) would do this but what's the point of starting pitchers/rotations anymore, really? In 30 years I don't even think the starting pitcher will exist. Carry a 12 or 13 man pitching staff and use it like you do in spring training, or like you see guys like Francona doing in the playoffs. Get 3-4 innings from your "starter" whose only job is to bridge the gap to the three to six out relievers throwing 96+. The opposing team never really sees the same pitcher twice in a game save for maybe the first pitcher. Force the opposing team to burn bench guys on matchups or just play the advantages yourself and bring in whoever you want. The game is moving that direction anyway, might as well take a jump and be the pioneers. Wouldn't we all feel way better about this team if we knew we were only trusting Conley, Urena, Cosart, Chen, Nicolino, Brice to get 9 outs a game and then pass it over to the bullpen?

[Swifty]

Chapman hasn't started in 6 years. He's not a starter anymore.

I wish teams were more forward thinking to be honest. I know there's no chance we (or anyone) would do this but what's the point of starting pitchers/rotations anymore, really? In 30 years I don't even think the starting pitcher will exist. Carry a 12 or 13 man pitching staff and use it like you do in spring training, or like you see guys like Francona doing in the playoffs. Get 3-4 innings from your "starter" whose only job is to bridge the gap to the three to six out relievers throwing 96+. The opposing team never really sees the same pitcher twice in a game save for maybe the first pitcher. Force the opposing team to burn bench guys on matchups or just play the advantages yourself and bring in whoever you want. The game is moving that direction anyway, might as well take a jump and be the pioneers. Wouldn't we all feel way better about this team if we knew we were only trusting Conley, Urena, Cosart, Chen, Nicolino, Brice to get 9 outs a game and then pass it over to the bullpen?

It'd never work being done daily for a full season. Those arms throwing 96+ would blow out. I think replacing the 5 starter with a "bullpen" day may be coming, especially to teams with deep pens.

[fish16]

Chapman hasn't started in 6 years. He's not a starter anymore.

I wish teams were more forward thinking to be honest. I know there's no chance we (or anyone) would do this but what's the point of starting pitchers/rotations anymore, really? In 30 years I don't even think the starting pitcher will exist. Carry a 12 or 13 man pitching staff and use it like you do in spring training, or like you see guys like Francona doing in the playoffs. Get 3-4 innings from your "starter" whose only job is to bridge the gap to the three to six out relievers throwing 96+. The opposing team never really sees the same pitcher twice in a game save for maybe the first pitcher. Force the opposing team to burn bench guys on matchups or just play the advantages yourself and bring in whoever you want. The game is moving that direction anyway, might as well take a jump and be the pioneers. Wouldn't we all feel way better about this team if we knew we were only trusting Conley, Urena, Cosart, Chen, Nicolino, Brice to get 9 outs a game and then pass it over to the bullpen?

You can stretch guys out. He would be limited the first year but he also would still be throwing high 90's if he even had to take a little off his top fastball as a closer. It's thinking outside the box and trying to squeeze the most out of every dollar you have as a team with limited salary. The price for top notch closers is significantly lower than top notch starters. And there is 0 doubt Miller or Chapman could be stretched out again.

[rmc523]

Miller wasn't a good starter, that's why he became a bullpen arm. I just don't see why you would take a guy out of a place he's been extremely successful.

With the talk of trading Ozuna for a starter, we'd obviously need a replacement - what does everyone think about Ian Desmond as an option?

[fish16]

Miller wasn't a good starter, that's why he became a bullpen arm. I just don't see why you would take a guy out of a place he's been extremely successful.

With the talk of trading Ozuna for a starter, we'd obviously need a replacement - what does everyone think about Ian Desmond as an option?

Miller pitching the way he did with the exact same stuff he had as a starter here in the bullpen would have had similar results. He's not the same pitcher he was when he was here as a starter. He figured something out delivery wise to drastically improve his control. That was his biggest downfall here. He had no control. Boston figured out something with him to get him to repeat his delivery. He showed flashes here, i specifically remember him pitching an unreal game against the Phillies back in Sunlife one time, but he just could never repeat his delivery, and he couldnt consistently throw strikes.. I completely understand the thought process of keeping him as a closer. He and Chapman are probably the best relievers in baseball and i totally understand the thought process of not taking them out of where they have proven to be successful. I just think they will both translate to being starters and i'm talking in a general sense of getting value for your dollar as a small market team. There really are no top starters on the market and I think rather than overpaying for a middle of the road starter I think it would be worth it to give a top closer who has a history of being a starter top closer money and trying to translate their results to the rotation. Obviously they wouldnt be nearly as dominant as starters but im of the opinion that their stuff is still good enough to translate into a #1/2 starter. Totally understand your guys' line of thinking that that would be a bad idea, though. Man, aside from the totally awful human side of the Jose tragedy, it has really crippled this franchise baseball wise.

We could also not trade away our SP prospects in recent years (See Heaney, Desclafani, Martes), but that is a sunk cost at this point.

[Namaste]

Desmond is like a 19 WAR player over the last 5 years so I'm a fan but I thought he was a SS

[thatnewguy]

Desmond played OF with Texas. No chance we sign him bc $$$.

Not as down on the future as some of you but there are obvious concerns. I say you role with Phelps as a SP because of how effective he was, even in small sample, last year. He could be a huge in-house option and if you get the bounce back from Chen I think we are all expecting and mostly more of the same from the likes of Koehler and Conley, then you're in the position of trying to get one front-line starter.

I'd wonder if Tampa Bay would still have any interest in moving Chris Archer, who would fill the Jose role at the front, and I would totally be in favor of moving guys like Hech, Ramos, and of course Ozuna to get him. I think you put Archer at the front of the rotation and then sign a good OF bat to replace Ozuna's production and we're still in good shape.

[HUGG]

Miller pitching the way he did with the exact same stuff he had as a starter here in the bullpen would have had similar results. He's not the same pitcher he was when he was here as a starter. He figured something out delivery wise to drastically improve his control. That was his biggest downfall here. He had no control. Boston figured out something with him to get him to repeat his delivery. He showed flashes here, i specifically remember him pitching an unreal game against the Phillies back in Sunlife one time, but he just could never repeat his delivery, and he couldnt consistently throw strikes.. I completely understand the thought process of keeping him as a closer. He and Chapman are probably the best relievers in baseball and i totally understand the thought process of not taking them out of where they have proven to be successful. I just think they will both translate to being starters and i'm talking in a general sense of getting value for your dollar as a small market team. There really are no top starters on the market and I think rather than overpaying for a middle of the road starter I think it would be worth it to give a top closer who has a history of being a starter top closer money and trying to translate their results to the rotation. Obviously they wouldnt be nearly as dominant as starters but im of the opinion that their stuff is still good enough to translate into a #1/2 starter. Totally understand your guys' line of thinking that that would be a bad idea, though. Man, aside from the totally awful human side of the Jose tragedy, it has really crippled this franchise baseball wise.

We could also not trade away our SP prospects in recent years (See Heaney, Desclafani, Martes), but that is a sunk cost at this point.

Pitchers don't have the exact same stuff as a starter as in the bullpen. There's a reason they're in the bullpen. Even control is easier to harness in short stints than it is as a starter. 99% of bullpen guys are moved there because they weren't effective enough as a starter, it's rarely because they don't have the stamina to do it. There's a reason bullpen to rotation transition is super rare.

Also, I would imagine you'd have a pretty tough sell telling this guy that's elite at his job that you want him to back to the job he sucked at. Maybe he'll want to do it, probably not. I guess if you're going to sign them to a contract long enough that they won't need to sign another one and potentially effect their future earnings.

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Also, hardest pass possible on Aroldis Chapman on this team, in any role, at any price. Fuck him.

[fish16]

Pitchers don't have the exact same stuff as a starter as in the bullpen. There's a reason they're in the bullpen. Even control is easier to harness in short stints than it is as a starter. 99% of bullpen guys are moved there because they weren't effective enough as a starter, it's rarely because they don't have the stamina to do it. There's a reason bullpen to rotation transition is super rare.

Also, I would imagine you'd have a pretty tough sell telling this guy that's elite at his job that you want him to back to the job he sucked at. Maybe he'll want to do it, probably not. I guess if you're going to sign them to a contract long enough that they won't need to sign another one and potentially effect their future earnings.

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Also, hardest pass possible on Aroldis Chapman on this team, in any role, at any price. Fuck him.

Agree to disagree. The stuff Chapman and Miller have would easily transfer to a rotation. And lots of guys have gone the route im proposing. Initially a starter, transferred to bullpen, then stretched out into rotation.

[lou]

Chapman hasn't started in 6 years. He's not a starter anymore.

I wish teams were more forward thinking to be honest. I know there's no chance we (or anyone) would do this but what's the point of starting pitchers/rotations anymore, really? In 30 years I don't even think the starting pitcher will exist. Carry a 12 or 13 man pitching staff and use it like you do in spring training, or like you see guys like Francona doing in the playoffs. Get 3-4 innings from your "starter" whose only job is to bridge the gap to the three to six out relievers throwing 96+. The opposing team never really sees the same pitcher twice in a game save for maybe the first pitcher. Force the opposing team to burn bench guys on matchups or just play the advantages yourself and bring in whoever you want. The game is moving that direction anyway, might as well take a jump and be the pioneers. Wouldn't we all feel way better about this team if we knew we were only trusting Conley, Urena, Cosart, Chen, Nicolino, Brice to get 9 outs a game and then pass it over to the bullpen?

It's an interesting idea, but I think you need to have some anchor SP to eat massive innings to give the bullpen rest days. Those stretches in the year with no off days will eventually kill the pen with 6+ relievers being used every night. In a typical year if a team throws 1450 innings, that's 120 innings each per 12 relievers. That's just going to be a lot because obviously they won't be able to ideally schedule 60 appearances for 2 innings each every 2.5 games for all of them, nor will the LOOGY be able to do that.

I think there is a chance to get away with something like this with a 3 man rotation / 9 reliever mix. You get three guys to eat 600 of those innings, and you're now in the realm of possibility of throwing 9 relievers at 95 innings each. Could run the staff Ace-BP-SP-SP-BP sort of thing.

It's basically what Urena and Phelps did this year. Uptick guys like Ramos/Barraclough/Ellington/Wittgren to average outings of 1.2 innings over 60 outings and you're in business. I feel an organization will need to radically prepare for this and have multiple extra relievers in AAA to routinely churn the last 2-3 guys in the pen to keep guys fresh.

Scanning stats real quick, if the team had 3 good starting pitchers, and then assembled a group like Erasmo Ramirez, Mike Montgomery, Chris Devenski, and Vance Worley behind them, that would be pretty cool. Doing this exercise I just saw Brad Hand's season line last year. Fucking christ. Why do all the relievers they let go become awesome somewhere else?

So if we're thinking of a Marlins distribution, if they did sign one of Chapman or Jansen, committed to 600 SP innings between Chen/Conley/Koehler/Nicolino and 90 innings each of Chapman/Jansen, Ramos, Phelps, Urena, McGowan, Barraclough, Wittgren, and churned Cervenka, Ellington, Brice, J. Garcia, L. Castillo, etc. as the mop up innings for those last 200 innings or so, you're in business.

I'm not opposed if they want to be pioneers, but it would be a lot easier to do if the SP they have are not of the #3/4 variety. This would work a bit easier with Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar or Arrieta, Lester, and Hendricks.

[rmc523]

Could we ship Hech to Seattle for anything of value?

[tjfla]

Could we ship Hech to Seattle for anything of value?

Doubtful all reports say they are going after Cozart again.

Issue we got is same as every offseason,teams have no desire to talk trade with us about arbitration guys because we will likely release them. Ozuna is the exception but why would a team trade for Hech,Koehler or a RP that is making 2.5 mil??

Likely is Ozuna dealt for stuff(ML Ready arm and prospect or 2) and FA signed for LF with Yelich in CF

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They don't need RP at all. They got a full pen already and AAA is stacked too

What they need to do is something that already has been mentioned. Sign a Josh Reddick or even Dexter Fowler and deal Ozuna and maybe even DD for SP. Seattle,Texas,Cleveland,NYY all would love to have him AND they all have ML Ready Arms

Call Cubs and see if have interest in DD for a Montogmery or even TB for Ramirez

The biggest thing with us is we need to increase the payroll!!!

[Namaste]

Aroldis Chapman can eat my ass. We don't need people like that on our team.

[tjfla]

Scruggs is gone. Elected FA