Marlins 2013 Off-season Thread

[Bobbob1313]

Maybe. I think it's probably a perception thing. I think you could absolutely convince some team that Phil Hughes has figured it out, vs. a Kevin Slowey.

We also don't know how much Phil Hughes is going to make, and I just pulled $8m out of my ass.

[lou]

I think when debating a Phil Hughes (or any "reclamation" project) contract, money is irrelevant for the Marlins this year. They are so under what a normal team spends and are nowhere near competing, it just doesn't matter as signing anyone doesn't prevent the team from making any other move. Loria prevents that move.

I think it all comes down if you think Phil Hughes (or anyone) turns into a tradeable asset in July. If you do, it's worth signing him.

Saying that, I think Hughes is a good gamble if it's a reasonable one year deal with a team option.
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I think there's a better chance of Hughes gaining more value as a buy-low candidate than any hypothetical hitter. Especially given the park the Marlins play in.

I agree with this and think if Loria is willing to spend on a few projects, they should defer to pitchers even if they have "emerging" SP depth. I like the idea in principal of trading out Turner/Alvarez/Eovaldi for a comparable bat. Maybe not Trumbo, but that's good in theory considering future rotation is likely Fernandez, Heaney, 2014 # 2 Pick, Nicolino, and whoever

[nny]

With how good our pitching is, I think we should be playing to start winning now. We should have an above average pitching staff next year with the starters and relievers we have penciled in. We need bats, a lot of them, but I think we should be working to acquire them rather than trying to acquire prospects.

I think if we can grab a SS and a C in a trade, we could sign one of the okay FA MIFers (Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante) to stopgap for Moran, and hope for the best out of Ozuna/Mars in CF, Lomo at 1b, and Dietrich at 2B/3B (and it's not THAT big of a stretch that they do well). I'd be feeling pretty good about that team going into 2014 competing if things go well and looking good for future if not.
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Also /r/nottheonion

According to FanGraphs, Hechavarria's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a minus-1.9. As an organization, Miami is curious as to why the analytical community has such low calculations on Hechavarria. The Marlins would like some answers, and they actually plan on having a team representative meet with some numbers people at the Winter Meetings in December.

http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/news/ar...&vkey=news_mia

[Bobbob1313]

oh my goodness

[Erick]

[NoNames7225]

If numbers don't lie, anyone who hasn't seen Adeiny Hechavarria play shortstop might think he uses a milk carton for a glove. The eyes say Hechavarria was worthy of Gold Glove consideration. His defensive metrics suggest otherwise.

"I know zone rating," President of Baseball Operations Michael Hill said. "I know range factor, and I know an above average defensive shortstop when I see one with my eyes and the numbers don't match. I wouldn't even say we're slanted because we see him every day. Ask anybody who played against us if they would take Hechavarria at shortstop."

Hill was befuddled as to how Hechavarria wasn't among the three finalists for the Gold Glove award, a prize that went to Braves' counterpart Andrelton Simmons over Ian Desmond and Troy Tulowitzki.

Managers and coaches determine Gold Glove winners in their respective leagues. Hechavarria's defensive skills weren't recognized in The 2013 Fielding Bible Awards either. A panel of 12 experts, including defensive metrics guru John Dewan, ranks the top 10 players at every position. Not surprisingly, Simmons received 12 first-place votes. He was one of 19 shortstops named on ballots.

Hechavarria wasn't among them.

Dewan, who established The Fielding Bible Awards in 2006, developed defensive runs saved (DRS). As the name suggests, the figure represents how many runs a player saved or cost his team compared to the average defender at his position. Simmons set a record for any position with a plus-41, well ahead of Clint Barmes and Pedro Florimon, who tied for second with a plus-12.

Hechavarria was a minus-3, tied for 18th among all regular shortstops.

"Minus-3 is below average, but not that far below average," Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) research and development associate Joe Rosales said. "It's the kind of guy you don't feel you're necessarily losing that much having him out there."

The Marlins certainly don't feel they're settling for adequate defense from Hechavarria. Nonetheless, several metrics beyond DRS suggest he's not an elite defender. Among 21 players who totaled 935 or more innings at the position, Hechavarria ranked second-to-last in both ultimate zone rating/150 and range runs.

UZR according to Fangraphs "looks at the trajectory and speed of every batted ball, and based on overall major league averages, assigns a probability that a certain position will field it. If a player at that position fields it, he gets credit above the overall major league average. If he doesn't, he gets negative credit." UZR is a counting stat. UZR/150 gives a value per 150 defensive games.

The same Fangraphs glossary defines range runs as, "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity."

BIS also tracks good defensive plays (a play made when it was not clear that it could have been made, and no one would have faulted the fielder for not making it) and defensive misplays (any play which is not scored an error on which the fielder loses the opportunity to make an out or allows a runner to advance).

This is where Hechavarria and Simmons are similar. They tied for the major league lead with 76 good fielding plays. BIS also calculates a net by subtracting misplays and errors from good fielding plays. Simmons' net (37) ranked first. Hechavarria (34) was second, and he totaled 55 fewer defensive innings that Simmons.

"On a physical level, [Hechavarria] matches up well with somebody like Simmons," Rosales said. "When you see him out there he does compare favorably to some of the best shortstops. His objective metrics aren't matching up and when we're able to dig through it, it looks like it's just a positioning thing."

Based on BIS research, no shortstop in baseball was better at fielding balls to his left than Hechavarria (plus-15). Among the 35 players with most innings at shortstop, Hechavarria ranked 32nd with a minus-16 on balls to his right.

"When it comes to where he sets up versus right-handed batters, he doesn't cheat over toward the hole as much as most shortstops do," Rosales said. "He's just not making those plays as much as other shortstops are on balls hit toward the hole. If he could focus on that one area of how he positions himself against right-handed batters, [objectively] he could be just as good as anybody else."

Added Marlins infield coach Perry Hill: "I guess the numbers don't lie. I need to do a better job getting him in the right place, bottom line. I saw a lot of good shortstops. I didn't see anyone that was any better than him."

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/m...,6122087.story

[Mainge]

Good read

[Bobbob1313]

I have no problem with them disagreeing with the metrics. But if they seriously need to bring in people to explain the 'why' of it to them, that's a problem.

[nny]

I have no problem with them disagreeing with the metrics. But if they seriously need to bring in people to explain the 'why' of it to them, that's a problem.

What I hate is that he's listing off Zone Rating and Range Factor as advanced metrics and they have been outdated for damn-near 10 years now.

It's definitely clear they know even less about advanced stats than I think most of us gave them credit for, and we didn't give them much.

[emkayseven]

mm21

sit in on that meeting if you can

[Namaste]

We knew they were boobs when we heard their dialogue during The Franchise on Showtime. Boob City.

[fauowls44]

I guess the Hughes debate can stop. He's signing with Minnesota for 3 years/$24 million. YIKES! A rotation led by Nolasco and Hughes...good luck!

[Big Z]

@ChrisCotillo: #Brewers expected to be among the teams interested in trading for Logan Morrison if the #Marlins are serious about trading him.

Twitter

[lou]

Added Marlins infield coach Perry Hill: "I guess the numbers don't lie. I need to do a better job getting him in the right place, bottom line. I saw a lot of good shortstops. I didn't see anyone that was any better than him."

This is kind of cool right? Making an adjustment based on the best available data? We can like Perry Hill at least?
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With how good our pitching is, I think we should be playing to start winning now. We should have an above average pitching staff next year with the starters and relievers we have penciled in. We need bats, a lot of them, but I think we should be working to acquire them rather than trying to acquire prospects.

I think if we can grab a SS and a C in a trade, we could sign one of the okay FA MIFers (Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante) to stopgap for Moran, and hope for the best out of Ozuna/Mars in CF, Lomo at 1b, and Dietrich at 2B/3B (and it's not THAT big of a stretch that they do well). I'd be feeling pretty good about that team going into 2014 competing if things go well and looking good for future if not.

The amount of bats you're talking about is acquiring at least 3 significant bats, and that's not including having at least two "breakouts" from Yelich, Marisnick/Ozuna(CF), Morrison/1B, and Hechavarria/Dietrich(MI). It's just a lot to ask for.

Tank for Wiggins

[Big Z]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #BlueJays in agreement with free-agent catcher on Dioner Navarro on two-year deal, pending physical.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Signing of Navarro likely will lead #BlueJays to trade Arencibia. Team needs Thole to catch Dickey. Navarro could grow into everyday role.

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