2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

From last year's team, we lost the following players who had more than 100 ab's- Stallings, Soler, Wendle, Cooper, Segura, Gurriel, Hampson, and Berti. 2 of those guys had an OPS above .723. Stallings, Wendle, Gurriel, and Segura all had negative WAR and combined for -3.4 WAR. The other 4 combined for 4.9 WAR. So we're talking a net loss of 1.5 WAR and 2556 ab's.

Stallings is Betancourt.
Wendle is anderson.
Cooper is pretty much Bell's ab's
Segura is pretty much Burger's ab's.
Hampson is pretty much Gordon/Brujan.
Edwards i'd like to see what he can do in berti's spot.

Soler will be a mission to replace, but I'm not worried about replacing that type of production in the aggregate. Those guys were all thoroughly replacable last year outside of Soler and to a lesser extent berti. Give me the young guys

[lou]

Im completely fine giving that many PA to that group of players plus adding the 2 prospects they just added for a 34 year old utility man in berti. I would take amaya and VMJR out of there but ya i would be fine seeing what they have in those young guys.

I'd like to see a lot of Edwards, Myers, and Johnston eventually specifically. Especially when the alternative is a 32 year old Gio Urshela, 34 year old Jon Berti, Amed Rosario who is not a good player, and JD davis who i actually like and think is the only real guy that intrigues me that they could have gotten but hasnt graded well defensively for his career.

We can agree to disagree here. It's insane they are penciling in 2,000 PA for those guys IMO. They should have signed 1,000 more (to replace Berti and Garcia), targeted Brujan for around 350 of those at the MLB level (with room to grow if better than DLC/Gordon/etc.), and aimed for Edwards to be the next huge batch if anyone gets hurt with fleeting time for Bride/Dane/whoever. It's a huge depth failure unless you're thinking Brujan, Edwards, and at least one of Bride/Dane/whoever are 1.2 WAR players over 400 PA. Gonna need to hit on 3 of them to have a chance at .500.

[fish16]

We can agree to disagree here. It's insane they are penciling in 2,000 PA for those guys IMO. They should have signed 1,000 more (to replace Berti and Garcia), targeted Brujan for around 350 of those at the MLB level (with room to grow if better than DLC/Gordon/etc.), and aimed for Edwards to be the next huge batch if anyone gets hurt with fleeting time for Bride/Dane/whoever. It's a huge depth failure unless you're thinking Brujan, Edwards, and at least one of Bride/Dane/whoever are 1.2 WAR players over 400 PA. Gonna need to hit on 3 of them to have a chance at .500.

I have no earthly idea where you are getting 2000 PA. They lost 8 guys with more than 100 PA's for us last year. They accounted for a little over 2500 ab's. Anderson, Betancourt, and Gordon should take a lot of those, as should Bell and Burger playing full years and getting the first half ab's in those spots. Then you have Jazz staying healthy hopefully, plus brujan and edwards and dane and Johnston and i guess garcia if they refuse to cut bait.

Obviously if there are injuries there will be more, but i think you are wildly overestimating how many PA's that crop of guys will get. On top of that, the ab's they are replacing were wildly mediocre in the aggregate.

[lou]

From last year's team, we lost the following players who had more than 100 ab's- Stallings, Soler, Wendle, Cooper, Segura, Gurriel, Hampson, and Berti. 2 of those guys had an OPS above .723. Stallings, Wendle, Gurriel, and Segura all had negative WAR and combined for -3.4 WAR. The other 4 combined for 4.9 WAR. So we're talking a net loss of 1.5 WAR and 2556 ab's.

Stallings is Betancourt.
Wendle is anderson.
Cooper is pretty much Bell's ab's
Segura is pretty much Burger's ab's.
Hampson is pretty much Gordon/Brujan.
Edwards i'd like to see what he can do in berti's spot.

Soler will be a mission to replace, but I'm not worried about replacing that type of production in the aggregate. Those guys were all thoroughly replacable last year outside of Soler and to a lesser extent berti. Give me the young guys

None of this matters. They had a -57 run differential last year and were 33-14 in one run games. We're not doing A-B replacements here. The team needed to get 8-10 wins better and the team is not close to that (especially without Sandy). I'm not sure if they improved at all (probably didn't), hence why the projection is likely a mid 70s win team that wins some close games on SP strength, but the one run luck regresses to the mean.

It's a resounding F grade offseason. One of the worst in Marlins history. Maybe second worst after 1997.

[lou]

I have no earthly idea where you are getting 2000 PA. They lost 8 guys with more than 100 PA's for us last year. They accounted for a little over 2500 ab's. Anderson, Betancourt, and Gordon should take a lot of those, as should Bell and Burger playing full years and getting the first half ab's in those spots. Then you have Jazz staying healthy hopefully, plus brujan and edwards and dane and Johnston and i guess garcia if they refuse to cut bait.

Because it's three active roster spots (Garcia, Brujan, Edwards/Bride). That grouping is their entire bench effectively + injury replacements who will get many PA throughout the season off and on while guys are banged up. Those guys are getting 2,000 PA.

[fish16]

Because it's three active roster spots (Garcia, Brujan, Edwards/Bride). That grouping is their entire bench effectively + injury replacements who will get many PA throughout the season off and on while guys are banged up. Those guys are getting 2,000 PA.

Again, do the math of who they lost from last years roster and how many ab's they got. Out of the guys that had 100 ab's or more, it adds up to about 2500. That number will now go in part to Bell, Burger, Betancourt, Anderson, Gordon, and then the rest to those group of players you named. It's not nearly as many as you're making it out to be. The math is not all that complicated.

And i'd gladly see Edwards, Myers, Johnston, and Brujan get a chance to prove themselves with the remainder of the ab's

And again, they lost a net WAR of 1.4 across like 8 players. Not exactly losing Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, and JT here. It's not that huge of a loss, and if they start doing rays stuff and taking advantage of platoon splits more often, they might even out or even better in the aggregate. Hell, Burger or Bell themselves might replace that entirely with a good first half.

[Nick]

If we were truly looking towards the future. Looking to give young guys playing time, Garcia would be gone. Make no mistake, this Berti move was motivated first and foremost by cutting costs. Reducing the payroll.

[Namaste]

It's a resounding F grade offseason. One of the worst in Marlins history. Maybe second worst after 1997.

F is maybe a tad harsh but it was terrible no doubt. I'd bump it up to D-

It was intentional, though. There is no other explanation.

I'll be at Opening Day tomorrow. My expectations for 2024 are substantially lower than 2023.

[fish16]

None of this matters. They had a -57 run differential last year and were 33-14 in one run games. We're not doing A-B replacements here. The team needed to get 8-10 wins better and the team is not close to that (especially without Sandy). I'm not sure if they improved at all (probably didn't), hence why the projection is likely a mid 70s win team that wins some close games on SP strength, but the one run luck regresses to the mean.

It's a resounding F grade offseason. One of the worst in Marlins history. Maybe second worst after 1997.

now you're conflating 2 different arguments. They didnt spend again predictably. maybe you will finally stop projecting moving forward as if they will make any kind of major signing. That's separate from the fact that you are talking as if there is this enormous amount of productive ab's they have to replace when in reality the ab's are being replaced by solid vets like Burger, Bell, Betancourt, Anderson, and to a lesser extent gordon, plus the young guys you mentioned, In addition, those 2500 ab's were not remotely productive last year in the aggregate. It isnt this overwhelming production they have to replace.

[fish16]

F is maybe a tad harsh but it was terrible no doubt. I'd bump it up to D-

It was intentional, though. There is no other explanation.

I'll be at Opening Day tomorrow. My expectations for 2024 are substantially lower than 2023.

and yet you keep giving them your money and attending games. stop giving them your money. and no that doesnt make me a bad fan. I havent been to a game since ohtani came here 2 years ago. They dont deserve a single fans money. Couldnt pay me to go spend my money on that type of team.

[lou]

Again, do the math of who they lost from last years roster and how many ab's they got. Out of the guys that had 100 ab's or more, it adds up to about 2500. That number will now go in part to Bell, Burger, Betancourt, Anderson, Gordon, and then the rest to those group of players you named. It's not nearly as many as you're making it out to be. The math is not all that complicated.

And i'd gladly see Edwards, Myers, Johnston, and Brujan get a chance to prove themselves with the remainder of the ab's

And again, they lost a net WAR of 1.4 across like 8 players. Not exactly losing Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, and JT here. It's not that huge of a loss, and if they start doing rays stuff and taking advantage of platoon splits more often, they might even out or even better in the aggregate.

You're telling me to do the math? They'll need extremely abnormal low injuries to not have those guys get that time.

I think you're in for a big reality check with what this team looks like and does. They probably have 250 IF starts up for grabs from Brujan, Edwards, Bride, and Amaya right now. That's at least 1,000 PA. Arraez, Bell, Burger, and Anderson can play only so many games and will need off days.

[Namaste]

and yet you keep giving them your money and attending games. stop giving them your money. and no that doesnt make me a bad fan. I havent been to a game since ohtani came here 2 years ago. They dont deserve a single fans money. Couldnt pay me to go spend my money on that type of team.

It's not about the money.

It's about the experience with my sons.

They made the playoffs last year. It was exciting. You were excited.

I'll continue to share fun experiences with my children. Alligator arms Bruce Sherman can have my money. I'll make more.

[lou]

And then Jazz, Sanchez, and Gordon can't play against lefties. That is 100+ games and DLC can't play for all of them at once. There's a ton of time for Garcia/OF replacements coming. This is at least 300-400PA.

So then anyone, and I mean anyone, gets hurt and there is the rest of the time.


It does add up fast. So yes, I have done the math.

[lou]

now you're conflating 2 different arguments. They didnt spend again predictably. maybe you will finally stop projecting moving forward as if they will make any kind of major signing. That's separate from the fact that you are talking as if there is this enormous amount of productive ab's they have to replace when in reality the ab's are being replaced by solid vets like Burger, Bell, Betancourt, Anderson, and to a lesser extent gordon, plus the young guys you mentioned, In addition, those 2500 ab's were not remotely productive last year in the aggregate. It isnt this overwhelming production they have to replace.

What? I wanted them to sign $1.5-4.5m free agents and match what they spent last year? Rosario? Davis? Lorenzen? All 3 fit in under 2023 budget by over $10 million. You don't understand payroll. That's what I am seeing here.

Already answered the playing time question.

[fish16]

It's not about the money.

It's about the experience with my sons.

They made the playoffs last year. It was exciting. You were excited.

I'll continue to share fun experiences with my children. Alligator arms Bruce Sherman can have my money. I'll make more.

very fair. that has a value