2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

that team looks thoroughly unimpressive even if you add 3 unproven top prospects, which you are not going to get mayer and teel for 1 year of arraez and free agent to be scott and mayo is likely untouchable. 25 million per year on a long term deal for the early to mid 30's for Adames also sounds like a pretty awful idea as well.

Completely disagree across the board (could be best pitching staff in baseball my dude which is what they are obviously angling for), but that's fine. You be you. The names will be there when they trade the guys, that's not even a debate it's just who is it going to be. Granularly worrying about this guy or that guy is going to get you anywhere. The league is going to freak out if they'd move Luzardo and Arraez at the deadline. These are non-rental difference makers who can each be extended ala Pablo or Reynolds. Luzardo is a top 50 valuable player in baseball. They will do fine and get tremendous players.

What is thoroughly unimpressive is signing Anderson, the worst/most expensive financial decision of all the fringe guys like Davis and Pham and Duvall, and Rosario, all of whom would have been better ideas and they have the positional versatility to cover this so the SS angle doesn't matter. As well as, operating a bottom 24th payroll after making the playoffs, where if you just scaled to 18th (which is still $30-40m below league median) you'd probably be in good shape for a WC spot even without Sandy. Culture? Fans? None of it matters. It's saving Bruce's money. He's too poor to own a team.

This offseason is a disaster, but the silver lining is, they can kick the can a year down the road for sure. They have a lot of great parts and projectable guys for sure. They'll have a phenomenal roster on paper around $60-65m needing 3-4 players if they do it right so I see that vision. It just sucks right now because this shouldn't be happening. They should be playing to win, and could still do that longterm vision and trade guys like the Rays move Glasnow and don't miss a beat if it doesn't work out. What they are doing is the most awful idea. Jack shit.

[lou]

lou other than Bezos relocating to Miami for tax purposes has there been any rumblings of him buying the team?

Nothing, Bruce says he won't sell either. He's just the guy to do it as he could buy the Marlins with 1 good stock market day at a valuation Bruce would shit himself for. Hopefully he drives that bum out of town.

[Nick]

J.D. Martinez to the Mets 1 year / $12 Million

Unrelated News: Avisail Garcia still a Marlin.

[fish16]

Completely disagree across the board (could be best pitching staff in baseball my dude which is what they are obviously angling for), but that's fine. You be you. The names will be there when they trade the guys, that's not even a debate it's just who is it going to be. Granularly worrying about this guy or that guy is going to get you anywhere. The league is going to freak out if they'd move Luzardo and Arraez at the deadline. These are non-rental difference makers who can each be extended ala Pablo or Reynolds. Luzardo is a top 50 valuable player in baseball. They will do fine and get tremendous players.

What is thoroughly unimpressive is signing Anderson, the worst/most expensive financial decision of all the fringe guys like Davis and Pham and Duvall, and Rosario, all of whom would have been better ideas and they have the positional versatility to cover this so the SS angle doesn't matter. As well as, operating a bottom 24th payroll after making the playoffs, where if you just scaled to 18th (which is still $30-40m below league median) you'd probably be in good shape for a WC spot even without Sandy. Culture? Fans? None of it matters. It's saving Bruce's money. He's too poor to own a team.

This offseason is a disaster, but the silver lining is, they can kick the can a year down the road for sure. They have a lot of great parts and projectable guys for sure. They'll have a phenomenal roster on paper around $60-65m needing 3-4 players if they do it right so I see that vision. It just sucks right now because this shouldn't be happening. They should be playing to win, and could still do that longterm vision and trade guys like the Rays move Glasnow and don't miss a beat if it doesn't work out. What they are doing is the most awful idea. Jack shit.

The best pitching staff with a truly terrible lineup and multiple holes that will be filled yet again by unproven prospects that we parade around on paper as a great lineup that have a high likelihood of not panning out. Very similar to a few years ago, except we're not doing it with brinson, harrison, anderson, isan diaz, etc. they need to sign arraez long term. it's enough already. Luzardo they can afford to move because they have the pitching depth, but you dont trade arraez.

It's the same thing rinse and repeat. First it was hanley, uggla, jacobs, willingham, etc. with no pitching/injured pitching. Then we paraded around JJ, anibal, Olson, Nolasco as this dynamic young rotation. Then we moved onto Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton with even worse pitching. Then we moved onto Sandy, Sixto, etc. and the "waves of pitching" with no hitting. It's enough already. They need to lock up their young guys early, deal from the fringes, and actually try to compete. This constant trying to trade the stars instead of operating intelligently and locking them up early is infuriating. There is no reason why they have not locked up Eury, Jazz, Arraez, or Cabrera. This team has 0 vision.

Also, anderson has the highest ceiling out of any of those guys and plays the position we needed most desperately, and he signed for a cheap 1 year deal. I've already said i think he's going to produce higher war than Soler for less than half the cost..

[fish16]

J.D. Martinez to the Mets 1 year / $12 Million

Unrelated News: Avisail Garcia still a Marlin.

Now that's a great price they should be ripped for not being in on. It would have been a lot of DH types but they desperately need 1 more right handed power bat to replace soler. The dude had an ops of .893, 33 homers, over 100 rbu's, in just 113 games last year.

I cant wait for the opening day spin of garcia being on the roster. Dane Myers has earned his spot.

[rmc523]

Well, first off, with Sandy out, they probably should be looking forward to next year. Next year and 2026 is realistically the window for contention the second sandy had surgery. And again, i'm not disagreeing with you that they should be spending money, but they should be spending it from within. it is inexcusable that they have not locked up a single guy on this roster. They are costing themselves millions down the line, or costing themselves the player itself once they get too far past the point of no return. That is the big issue with the payroll, not that they are not making moves that don't move the needle.

Also, lorenzon wont be ready until the 2nd or 3rd week of the year, at which point we should have cabrera, garrett, and possibly even eury back, making our rotation one of the best in the league even without sandy. We're talking about maybe 1 start, and you keep saying it's Hoeing for some reason, when it's likely going to be Soriano who has impressed. Is 1, maybe 2 starts worth 8-9 million for a mediocre pitcher who isnt stretched out? He's not worth the money. He's just not that good, which is my major point. And he's not a major improvement over what we have. You act like lorenzon is a major innings eater when he himself has never pitched more than 113 innings prior to last year, and he completely broke down down the stretch.

With all that said, this opening day roster is better than last years. We have Bell over Cooper, Betancourt over Stallings which is sadly a pretty decent upgrade, Anderson over wendle which could turn out to be an enormous upgrade, Burger over Segura, and Nick Gordon hopefully over Garcia. I think this roster is deeper than last years was, and as long as the injuries to the pitchers arent apocalyptic, they should at least hang around for a while if not till the end of the year, Losing Soler obviously hurts, but he was only 1.9 WAR himself because of his negative defensive value. i like the pitching depth more than last years provided they go out and get some cheap innings from someone at the deadline. Plus you have some legitimate wild cards with Meyer, Sixto, and Weathers. Granted, they were also incredibly lucky last year, so it's unlikely they are going to see that repeat itself.

Yea, since all the “competitive windows” that have come and gone have worked out. They follow up a playoff appearance by acting like they’re going out of business. It’s absurd.

we are absolutely going to have pitching problems and they’re absolute morons for not addressing it.

[lou]

Yea, since all the “competitive windows” that have come and gone have worked out. They follow up a playoff appearance by acting like they’re going out of business. It’s absurd.

we are absolutely going to have pitching problems and they’re absolute morons for not addressing it.

Yes

[lou]

Now that's a great price they should be ripped for not being in on. It would have been a lot of DH types but they desperately need 1 more right handed power bat to replace soler. The dude had an ops of .893, 33 homers, over 100 rbu's, in just 113 games last year.

I cant wait for the opening day spin of garcia being on the roster. Dane Myers has earned his spot.

No. It's the same problem as last year of having so many DH only types who can't play defense. This is a definition of insanity. You aren't wrong they need a bat, but this isn't it.

But I remind, if they have $12m (which they do)..... they should have signed say.... JD Davis, Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, AND Michael Taylor for collectively $12m. This kicks Garcia to the curb, DLC to AAA, Hoeing/whoever to AAA, and you sneak Brujan through waivers the first week of the season and don't care at all if you lose him. Those four have a 4.7 WAR projection with Steamer where Martinez and the four guys were kicking to the curb (so one extra player) is a 1.2. This is how a smart and efficient franchise operates and spends money. You rail on efficiency. So let's strive for efficiency and not DH slugs who have a nice triple slash, but it doesn't really matter compared to the multiple other roster spots that could use an upgrade and are killing you. If they didn't have Burger, Bell, DLC, and Arraez it would make 100% sense, but they have those guys. It's why they didn't sign him.

Ultimately, they could have easily added 3-4 wins to this team for around $12m bucks. They didn't do it. So the question is why? Bruce is cheap comes to mind, but even Bruce is not this cheap. We are under 2023 salary for a playoff team. So the answer is clearly, this can is being kicked yet again to 2025 when they have more arm inventory (theoretically) with all the guys built up more + Sandy. And then when Luzardo and Arraez get traded (they will), they'll have a very cohesive roster 23+ guys deep at around $65m so that is a lot of money to potentially spend in free agency if Bruce is generally ok with spending what he spent in 2023. Don't need to overthink it. They are TANKING in a way they can save face by not moving Luzardo and Arraez now and betting they'll make it to July to trade them then. And in their defense, that's not a bad plan as the arm situation obviously will be vastly improved in 2025. But that swings back to none of this should be a thing because Bruce should just be spending $120-130m and they should just contend to put out a product for their fans for fucking once.

And if you disagree, I'd follow that with, imagine if they did sign those 4 role players who are all ripe to being deadline trades if you fall out. Who wouldn't want a JD Davis rental for $1m? Why not spend that nominal money to try and contend and if not, aim for another Cooper for Weathers move or get a bunch of FV40 Maldonados. That improves your overall farm picture right? We like that Weathers move? But they are so fucking scared that the team might actually be pretty OK if they do obtain those extra 3-4 wins, they won't be able to trade Luzardo and Arraez and save face in July.

They want to struggle while the new FO sorts it out and they get Sandy's innings back + Max up to speed + the Puk SP conversion innings + Rogers back off injury so they don't have to push him + Cabrera getting to a 150 IP milestone this sure, etc. No rational human being thinks they have enough hitting or pitching, even if there are great parts all around that.

2025 is circled.

[lou]

The best pitching staff with a truly terrible lineup and multiple holes that will be filled yet again by unproven prospects that we parade around on paper as a great lineup that have a high likelihood of not panning out. Very similar to a few years ago, except we're not doing it with brinson, harrison, anderson, isan diaz, etc. they need to sign arraez long term. it's enough already. Luzardo they can afford to move because they have the pitching depth, but you dont trade arraez.

It's the same thing rinse and repeat. First it was hanley, uggla, jacobs, willingham, etc. with no pitching/injured pitching. Then we paraded around JJ, anibal, Olson, Nolasco as this dynamic young rotation. Then we moved onto Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton with even worse pitching. Then we moved onto Sandy, Sixto, etc. and the "waves of pitching" with no hitting. It's enough already. They need to lock up their young guys early, deal from the fringes, and actually try to compete. This constant trying to trade the stars instead of operating intelligently and locking them up early is infuriating. There is no reason why they have not locked up Eury, Jazz, Arraez, or Cabrera. This team has 0 vision.

Also, anderson has the highest ceiling out of any of those guys and plays the position we needed most desperately, and he signed for a cheap 1 year deal. I've already said i think he's going to produce higher war than Soler for less than half the cost..

The bold is correct (but I will quib here Fernandez did die which was a franchise altering moment for that "core" and does have to be mentioned. I do often wonder what Jeff would have done if that never happened as Fernandez still might be the best SP in baseball today. Sigh.)

Arraez is never getting extended a year from free agency. This had to happen when they signed him or last October. Enjoy him while he lasts. I hope Boston gets him to see what he can do in that home park. Luzardo is a now or never moment. I bet never and he's in Minnesota, Texas, or Baltimore August 1.

As I've positioned they can wait on the other guys a year (Eury, Cabrera, Jazz, I guess Puk is really awesome now.... all very far from FA, or they can do it during the year for the later two if they blossom and prove health). Or some you don't need to extend and just go through arb (Burger and Garrett, older and soft tosser). I do think that is what is happening as it's not crucial, but I would concur is is extremely crucial mid/post 2024 for anyone who shows they are worth it.

But the expensive guys are getting kicked to the curb for huge prospects (Luzardo will easily get two top 100 guys and Arraez 1) absent a radical change in what we think Bruce will do ($130-140m payroll land).

It's not a bad plan if we accept Bruce is a cheapskate. I do commend Bendix for that. One step back to go 3 steps forward next year against a juggernaut Atlanta team does make sense over a 5 year plan. But I also am just mad/sad that this is happening again when we finally got some good luck last year and all it would take is Bruce spending $30m more to likely project the Marlins as the 5th/6th best team in the NL. Let's have a nice thing for once.

[Nick]

No. It's the same problem as last year of having so many DH only types who can't play defense. This is a definition of insanity. You aren't wrong they need a bat, but this isn't it.

But I remind, if they have $12m (which they do)..... they should have signed say.... JD Davis, Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, AND Michael Taylor for collectively $12m. This kicks Garcia to the curb, DLC to AAA, Hoeing/whoever to AAA, and you sneak Brujan through waivers the first week of the season and don't care at all if you lose him. Those four have a 4.7 WAR projection with Steamer where Martinez and the four guys were kicking to the curb (so one extra player) is a 1.2. This is how a smart and efficient franchise operates and spends money. You rail on efficiency. So let's strive for efficiency and not DH slugs who have a nice triple slash, but it doesn't really matter compared to the multiple other roster spots that could use an upgrade and are killing you. If they didn't have Burger, Bell, DLC, and Arraez it would make 100% sense, but they have those guys. It's why they didn't sign him.

Ultimately, they could have easily added 3-4 wins to this team for around $12m bucks. They didn't do it. So the question is why? Bruce is cheap comes to mind, but even Bruce is not this cheap. We are under 2023 salary for a playoff team. So the answer is clearly, this can is being kicked yet again to 2025 when they have more arm inventory (theoretically) with all the guys built up more + Sandy. And then when Luzardo and Arraez get traded (they will), they'll have a very cohesive roster 23+ guys deep at around $65m so that is a lot of money to potentially spend in free agency if Bruce is generally ok with spending what he spent in 2023. Don't need to overthink it. They are TANKING in a way they can save face by not moving Luzardo and Arraez now and betting they'll make it to July to trade them then. And in their defense, that's not a bad plan as the arm situation obviously will be vastly improved in 2025. But that swings back to none of this should be a thing because Bruce should just be spending $120-130m and they should just contend to put out a product for their fans for fucking once.

And if you disagree, I'd follow that with, imagine if they did sign those 4 role players who are all ripe to being deadline trades if you fall out. Who wouldn't want a JD Davis rental for $1m? Why not spend that nominal money to try and contend and if not, aim for another Cooper for Weathers move or get a bunch of FV40 Maldonados. That improves your overall farm picture right? We like that Weathers move? But they are so fucking scared that the team might actually be pretty OK if they do obtain those extra 3-4 wins, they won't be able to trade Luzardo and Arraez and save face in July.

They want to struggle while the new FO sorts it out and they get Sandy's innings back + Max up to speed + the Puk SP conversion innings + Rogers back off injury so they don't have to push him + Cabrera getting to a 150 IP milestone this sure, etc. No rational human being thinks they have enough hitting or pitching, even if there are great parts all around that.

2025 is circled.

A year being circled should mean nothing to us at this point, we've had lots of years circled since Sherman took over. Nothing's changed we've never operated differently it's the same shit every year.

[fish16]

The bold is correct (but I will quib here Fernandez did die which was a franchise altering moment for that "core" and does have to be mentioned. I do often wonder what Jeff would have done if that never happened as Fernandez still might be the best SP in baseball today. Sigh.)

Arraez is never getting extended a year from free agency. This had to happen when they signed him or last October. Enjoy him while he lasts. I hope Boston gets him to see what he can do in that home park. Luzardo is a now or never moment. I bet never and he's in Minnesota, Texas, or Baltimore August 1.

As I've positioned they can wait on the other guys a year (Eury, Cabrera, Jazz, I guess Puk is really awesome now.... all very far from FA, or they can do it during the year for the later two if they blossom and prove health). Or some you don't need to extend and just go through arb (Burger and Garrett, older and soft tosser). I do think that is what is happening as it's not crucial, but I would concur is is extremely crucial mid/post 2024 for anyone who shows they are worth it.

But the expensive guys are getting kicked to the curb for huge prospects (Luzardo will easily get two top 100 guys and Arraez 1) absent a radical change in what we think Bruce will do ($130-140m payroll land).

It's not a bad plan if we accept Bruce is a cheapskate. I do commend Bendix for that. One step back to go 3 steps forward next year against a juggernaut Atlanta team does make sense over a 5 year plan. But I also am just mad/sad that this is happening again when we finally got some good luck last year and all it would take is Bruce spending $30m more to likely project the Marlins as the 5th/6th best team in the NL. Let's have a nice thing for once.

Yes Fernandez dying made an impact, but they didnt have enough pitching even with him. and they constantly traded from the farm for guys that weren't upgrades to even further deplete the depth- see Heaney and Paddack and Luis castillo and to a lesser extent trevor williams for an executive they promptly fired, not to mention drafting a guy who rarely gets talked about in Tyler Kolek who might be the single worst draft pick in team history, which says a lot.

My overall point is this team has no vision, and it dates back to loria's tenure as well. Loria and Samson refused to invest anything in the draft and IFA because they couldnt see the forest through the trees and realize that if they planned on running the team cheaply, that they needed to find cheap talent that they could cost control for 6 years. Add that to the fact that they continued to look for guys they could trade for immediate impact who sucked- See Rodney, Straily, Jacob Turner, Jarred Cosart, Mat Latos, Andrew Cashner.

This current regime displays the same exact lack of vision, just in different ways. They shouldnt run the team this cheaply, but if they are going to, they should invest in the draft and IFA. they do that. Check. Awesome. But that model is only sustainable if you take those guys you develop in the draft and IFA and then sign them long term early. You need to have vision, see that you can sign guys like Eury, Cabrera, etc early and save millions in the future. They refuse to do it. Seemingly every other team in baseball can recognize the benefits of doing that, except for the marlins. Theyd rather save a little now and cost themselves millions if not the actual player down the line. They can't wait a year or 2 on those guys. Get it done now. All you do by waiting is cost yourself more money down the line.

There is 0 excuse to not have signed Arraez a year ago. They not only cost themselves millions, but they have likely cost themselves the best pure hitter in baseball in the next 2 years. And the dude is fucking 26 years old. There is no argument that you would be paying for past performance as if he was a 30 year old and you were extending him until he is 35. It's just pathetic.


You cannot run a team this way and ever be legitimately successful. How can every single fan recognize this and no one in the ownership of the team recognize it? And they wonder why no one shows up. You couldnt pay me to go to the ballpark and support this ineptitude.

[lou]

Yes Fernandez dying made an impact, but they didnt have enough pitching even with him. and they constantly traded from the farm for guys that weren't upgrades to even further deplete the depth- see Heaney and Paddack and Luis castillo and to a lesser extent trevor williams for an executive they promptly fired, not to mention drafting a guy who rarely gets talked about in Tyler Kolek who might be the single worst draft pick in team history, which says a lot.

My overall point is this team has no vision, and it dates back to loria's tenure as well. Loria and Samson refused to invest anything in the draft and IFA because they couldnt see the forest through the trees and realize that if they planned on running the team cheaply, that they needed to find cheap talent that they could cost control for 6 years. Add that to the fact that they continued to look for guys they could trade for immediate impact who sucked- See Rodney, Straily, Jacob Turner, Jarred Cosart, Mat Latos, Andrew Cashner.

This current regime displays the same exact lack of vision, just in different ways. They shouldnt run the team this cheaply, but if they are going to, they should invest in the draft and IFA. they do that. Check. Awesome. But that model is only sustainable if you take those guys you develop in the draft and IFA and then sign them long term early. You need to have vision, see that you can sign guys like Eury, Cabrera, etc early and save millions in the future. They refuse to do it. Seemingly every other team in baseball can recognize the benefits of doing that, except for the marlins. Theyd rather save a little now and cost themselves millions if not the actual player down the line. They can't wait a year or 2 on those guys. Get it done now. All you do by waiting is cost yourself more money down the line.

There is 0 excuse to not have signed Arraez a year ago. They not only cost themselves millions, but they have likely cost themselves the best pure hitter in baseball in the next 2 years. And the dude is fucking 26 years old. There is no argument that you would be paying for past performance as if he was a 30 year old and you were extending him until he is 35. It's just pathetic.


You cannot run a team this way and ever be legitimately successful. How can every single fan recognize this and no one in the ownership of the team recognize it? And they wonder why no one shows up. You couldnt pay me to go to the ballpark and support this ineptitude.

There is vision.

It's this in 2025 at under $65m, where they can half-ass contend in 2024 to save face (i.e. not trade today), with an eye at a banger deadline of Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Berti, Bell, and hopefully some of Anderson, one of DLC/Gordon will be expendable, Chargois, and maybe even a 2nd major P will be available to move.

Because this is the sub $65m team with Garcia dead $$$ accounted for.

____, Fortes
Burger, ______/Johnston/Berry
Edwards
_____, _____/Amaya
______, ____/Brujan/Cappe/Bride
Gordon or DLC
Jazz, ______/Mesa Jr./Myers
Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Puk/Rogers
SP/BULKS Puk/Rogers, Max, Weathers, Soriano
RP Nardi, Bender Sixto, ______/Many optionable potentials

With pick your favorite 3 lines as the primary Luzardo/Arraez/Scott pieces coming back who yes may be young, but it's likely all Jazz/Puk quality play immediate guys.

Brooks Lee primary for Luzardo? They'll do that today. M. Mayer primary for Arraez and Scott, since he's very expendable with Story, Grissom, and Rafaella especially getting 2B locked up as they will sign him? They will also do that as it's not a rental and Boston has young talent all over. So they'll have $50m to spend on 3-5 players(!!!) if Bruce is OK with $110m. You can fit in Adames, Hoskins/Bell/Something similar, and D. Jansen into that easily, and round it out with M. Taylor level backup OF signing sort of thing.

This can very easily happen for $110m in 2025:

D. Jansen, Fortes
Burger, "Hoskins/Bell type"
M. Mayer (Arraez+Scott), Edwards
Adames
B. Lee (Luzardo), Brujan/Cappe/Bride/JD Davis type signing
Gordon/DLC
Jazz, "M. Taylor/Duvall/Pham" type
Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Puk/Rogers
SP/BULKS Puk/Rogers, Max, Weathers, Soriano
RP Nardi, Bender Sixto, ____/Controlled guys



This is a vision - it's just not the 2024 vision we want....... but TBH, that team fucks in 2025. Something like Adames, Jansen, Mayer, Lee, and an upside 1B/DH type is going to project to 8-10+ WAR, and that's on top of the 8-10+ WAR you're getting with Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and the bench guys, and then the staff is plopping 20 WAR on that easily as a floor, and now you're like the 4th-5th best team in the NL and that's before getting a true breakout from Mayer, Lee, Jazz, Eury, Cabrera, Max, Puk, Weathers, and Rogers who could literally all blow past expectations by a collective 10+ WAR easily. So we're close to a 50 WAR team projection now at maybe an 80th percentile scenario??? It's one of he highest upside teams in the league that quickly and this isn't a fan rose colored glasses scenario. This just is what it is as that SP is intense as FUCK, and Jazz/Sanchez/Burger/Pen/Edwards/Fortes and others aren't liabilities. Turn Luzardo and Arraez into some assets + money, and you don't need those guys even if we love them.



But we can't have nice things now for this. Something like this is going to happen. Luzardo + Arraez + the whatever guys turn into 3 major pieces and they save $40m doing that combined with what Luzardo and Arraez would make in 2025 which they can use to replace them. This is rational in a $110m payroll world. We shouldn't be here, but let's not criticize a vision we don't like. We are all going to be very happy August 1st once we slog through the start of the year, assuming no more major arm injuries that will knock guys out significant portions of 2025.



Per the extensions, they can wait a year. We can agree to disagree there. The money they save will be negligible over 5-7 year deals versus the risk in missing up a deal Scott Kingery style. But the ship has sailed with Arraez. Luzardo is now or never, but it's a never. See above. That is what they are going to do, and I don't think anyone necessarily disagrees cashing in the two of them + getting money and banking on the SP all getting healthy isn't a genuine plan.

[fish16]

Again, you're doing the same exact thing we've all done for years, and that is to just type out a team on paper and think it looks good despite having 3 gaping holes, and a few other spots taken by guys who havent proven anything at the big league level. It's the same team we've had for like 3-4 years now- a team with a great pitching staff on paper, and a thoroughly mediocre lineup that you are hoping projects to eventually be good because they havent actually played in the big leagues, plus not 1 but 2 enormous free agent signings that we all know they won't do, and you're looking at it with rose colored glasses.

Most prospects dont pan out, and even further, most dont contribute significantly right away at the big league level. Meyer is 21 until December coming off a bad year. Brooks lee is 23. So that team that "Fucks" in 2025 is likely either a bad lineup with a bunch of your best players who cant seem to hit lefties, or in a good case just too young in their career, and you're going to end up missing the window for the rotation. Jesus Sanchez has a .559 OPS against lefties for his career. Jazz has a .603 OPS against lefties for his career. I even like Edwards, but he has 78 major league at bats. I also like Gordon, but he is 28 with a career .685 OPS coming off a major injury. DLC sucks. Fortes isnt a starting catcher. Burger is ideally a DH.

Losing arraez is inexcusable. No amount of typing out the same depth chart over and over again will excuse that. He's one of if not the best pure hitter in baseball. Trading him for prospects is a joke. If they actually hope to contend next year, you dont trade him.

Scott kingery signed a fucking 6 year, 24 million contract. IF you cant afford that kind of swing and a miss, you should fold your franchise. The upside far outweighs the downside.

[Nick]

There is vision.

It's this in 2025 at under $65m, where they can half-ass contend in 2024 to save face (i.e. not trade today), with an eye at a banger deadline of Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Berti, Bell, and hopefully some of Anderson, one of DLC/Gordon will be expendable, Chargois, and maybe even a 2nd major P will be available to move.

Because this is the sub $65m team with Garcia dead $$$ accounted for.

____, Fortes
Burger, ______/Johnston/Berry
Edwards
_____, _____/Amaya
______, ____/Brujan/Cappe/Bride
Gordon or DLC
Jazz, ______/Mesa Jr./Myers
Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Puk/Rogers
SP/BULKS Puk/Rogers, Max, Weathers, Soriano
RP Nardi, Bender Sixto, ______/Many optionable potentials

With pick your favorite 3 lines as the primary Luzardo/Arraez/Scott pieces coming back who yes may be young, but it's likely all Jazz/Puk quality play immediate guys.

Brooks Lee primary for Luzardo? They'll do that today. M. Mayer primary for Arraez and Scott, since he's very expendable with Story, Grissom, and Rafaella especially getting 2B locked up as they will sign him? They will also do that as it's not a rental and Boston has young talent all over. So they'll have $50m to spend on 3-5 players(!!!) if Bruce is OK with $110m. You can fit in Adames, Hoskins/Bell/Something similar, and D. Jansen into that easily, and round it out with M. Taylor level backup OF signing sort of thing.

This can very easily happen for $110m in 2025:

D. Jansen, Fortes
Burger, "Hoskins/Bell type"
M. Mayer (Arraez+Scott), Edwards
Adames
B. Lee (Luzardo), Brujan/Cappe/Bride/JD Davis type signing
Gordon/DLC
Jazz, "M. Taylor/Duvall/Pham" type
Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Puk/Rogers
SP/BULKS Puk/Rogers, Max, Weathers, Soriano
RP Nardi, Bender Sixto, ____/Controlled guys



This is a vision - it's just not the 2024 vision we want....... but TBH, that team fucks in 2025. Something like Adames, Jansen, Mayer, Lee, and an upside 1B/DH type is going to project to 8-10+ WAR, and that's on top of the 8-10+ WAR you're getting with Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and the bench guys, and then the staff is plopping 20 WAR on that easily as a floor, and now you're like the 4th-5th best team in the NL and that's before getting a true breakout from Mayer, Lee, Jazz, Eury, Cabrera, Max, Puk, Weathers, and Rogers who could literally all blow past expectations by a collective 10+ WAR easily. So we're close to a 50 WAR team projection now at maybe an 80th percentile scenario??? It's one of he highest upside teams in the league that quickly and this isn't a fan rose colored glasses scenario. This just is what it is as that SP is intense as FUCK, and Jazz/Sanchez/Burger/Pen/Edwards/Fortes and others aren't liabilities. Turn Luzardo and Arraez into some assets + money, and you don't need those guys even if we love them.



But we can't have nice things now for this. Something like this is going to happen. Luzardo + Arraez + the whatever guys turn into 3 major pieces and they save $40m doing that combined with what Luzardo and Arraez would make in 2025 which they can use to replace them. This is rational in a $110m payroll world. We shouldn't be here, but let's not criticize a vision we don't like. We are all going to be very happy August 1st once we slog through the start of the year, assuming no more major arm injuries that will knock guys out significant portions of 2025.



Per the extensions, they can wait a year. We can agree to disagree there. The money they save will be negligible over 5-7 year deals versus the risk in missing up a deal Scott Kingery style. But the ship has sailed with Arraez. Luzardo is now or never, but it's a never. See above. That is what they are going to do, and I don't think anyone necessarily disagrees cashing in the two of them + getting money and banking on the SP all getting healthy isn't a genuine plan.

Say we're 50-50 near the deadline, which I don't think is too unrealistic. How do you trade away Arraez, Luzardo and Scott, and not alienate what little fanbase you have left?

[lou]

Again, you're doing the same exact thing we've all done for years, and that is to just type out a team on paper and think it looks good despite having 3 gaping holes, and a few other spots taken by guys who havent proven anything at the big league level. It's the same team we've had for like 3-4 years now- a team with a great pitching staff on paper, and a thoroughly mediocre lineup that you are hoping projects to eventually be good because they havent actually played in the big leagues, plus not 1 but 2 enormous free agent signings that we all know they won't do, and you're looking at it with rose colored glasses.

Most prospects dont pan out, and even further, most dont contribute significantly right away at the big league level. Meyer is 21 until December coming off a bad year. Brooks lee is 23. So that team that "Fucks" in 2025 is likely either a bad lineup with a bunch of your best players who cant seem to hit lefties, or in a good case just too young in their career, and you're going to end up missing the window for the rotation. Jesus Sanchez has a .559 OPS against lefties for his career. Jazz has a .603 OPS against lefties for his career. I even like Edwards, but he has 78 major league at bats. I also like Gordon, but he is 28 with a career .685 OPS coming off a major injury. DLC sucks. Fortes isnt a starting catcher. Burger is ideally a DH.

Losing arraez is inexcusable. No amount of typing out the same depth chart over and over again will excuse that. He's one of if not the best pure hitter in baseball. Trading him for prospects is a joke. If they actually hope to contend next year, you dont trade him.

Scott kingery signed a fucking 6 year, 24 million contract. IF you cant afford that kind of swing and a miss, you should fold your franchise. The upside far outweighs the downside.

That is their plan in bold whether you see it or not and Arraez is not resigning here for a $125-150m contract as a non-defender destined to 1B. You'll see, and you will be pumped for getting those prospects August 1st the same way you have cheerleaded this offseason that you really like the Burger, Gordon, and Weathers moves and think they will be longterm pieces. Which you probably aren't wrong on as those were smart moves, but you can't on the one hand applaud moves for finding young assets, and then on the other hand suggest anyone they trade for is unproven and likely won't be a contributor. And if you don't believe me, what happened to Glasnow this year? This is what this FO is going to do.

Maybe you are a little jaded because you loved the Yelich deal the most and Brinson/Harrison/Diaz certainly happened, but at the same time this team is *HEAVILY* built via trade - Sandy, Luzardo, Puk, Weathers, Sixto(?), Jazz(Gallen), Arraez, Burger, Edwards, Sanchez, Brujan, DLC and Gordon. Turning expensive guys into more younger guys with explosive upside and money is what is going to happen, it's just a question of what names they get back and yes, will they spend some of that money. And notably there, the plant the flag Jayson Werth level deal which will be the turning point for the organization when Bruce finally lets them do it. I predict it will happen next year if the team and namley the SP is healthy because you can easily triangulate payroll for years so low not extending Luzardo and Arraez and getting multiple young guys to take their places, but we shall see if they can get there as that hasn't happened for a few years now as Rogers, Max, Sandy, and maybe now Eury maybe keep getting hurt. But maybe this is the magic year and upcoming offseason that might convince Bruce to do something as they'll have a healthy staff come the winter meetings?

My prediction is 2024 is going to fucking suck W/L wise, but the team is going to be better than 2023 overall despite a worse record in the standings, and this is all being set up for the magical pitching staff in 2025 where they don't even need Luzardo to have a projectable top 3 staff in baseball. Eyes on the longevity contending prize here. And yes, many dudes will need arbitration buyout extensions this summer/offseason for this to work. But they have some time but really only 1 more year here. And to mention, I am hope I am wrong and the sign Luzardo and Arrarez, I just don't think this is the plan. If it was, they'd have Davis, Rosario, Lorenzen, etc. to plug these holes and help them for nothing.