2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

People want money. Offer more money they’ll sign here. Lorenzen isn’t chasing a championship. 99% of the players in this league will take the highest contract that is offered to them. It’s the only the 1% of players that have already gotten their huge contracts that can afford to pick and choose. If you think lack of innings isn’t going to be a problem you’re out of your mind. It already is a problem.

You're just wrong on the money thing. Justin turner turned down more money just last year. This franchise is toxic, and until they display consistent winning it will remain so. Overpaying by a lot to overcompensate for that fact is a truly terrible way to run a franchise.

he just got what is essentially a 1 year 7 million deal. the incentives according to reports are easy to reach. he is also in texas which also has no state income tax just like florida. you want us to spend 10 million to eat innings? He's not that good. spending money to spend money is idiotic. They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, but throwing stupid money at a mediocre pitcher like lorenzon now isnt the answer.

They will be fine for opening day. They can go get a cheap innings eater at the deadline for a fringe prospect, just like the phillies gave up for lorenzon last year.

For opening day we have Luzardo, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Soriano, with Meyer, Sixto, Gutierrez, Soriano, and Hoeing also there. Garrett and Cabrera shouldnt be long, and Eury may well be fine. They are fine for right now. They will need innings in august and september. That doesnt mean you spend stupid money now and overpay now.

[Nick]

You're just wrong on the money thing. Justin turner turned down more money just last year. This franchise is toxic, and until they display consistent winning it will remain so. Overpaying by a lot to overcompensate for that fact is a truly terrible way to run a franchise.

he just got what is essentially a 1 year 7 million deal. the incentives according to reports are easy to reach. he is also in texas which also has no state income tax just like florida. you want us to spend 10 million to eat innings? He's not that good. spending money to spend money is idiotic. They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, but throwing stupid money at a mediocre pitcher like lorenzon now isnt the answer.

They will be fine for opening day. They can go get a cheap innings eater at the deadline for a fringe prospect, just like the phillies gave up for lorenzon last year.

For opening day we have Luzardo, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Soriano, with Meyer, Sixto, Gutierrez, Soriano, and Hoeing also there. Garrett and Cabrera shouldnt be long, and Eury may well be fine. They are fine for right now. They will need innings in august and september. That doesnt mean you spend stupid money now and overpay now.

Justin Turner was a 38-year old man who had already made $80+ million over the course of his career. I would say that falls into the category I listed above.

None of Sixto, Gutierrez, Hoeing and Soriano have pitched 9 innings total in Spring Training. Meyer will be in AAA. I don't see how they're prepared to give you 4-5 innings. We're going to need guys that give us 4-5 innings. Having a guy who gives us 4-5 innings is a need right now, and it'll be a bigger need in August and September.

[rmc523]

You're just wrong on the money thing. Justin turner turned down more money just last year. This franchise is toxic, and until they display consistent winning it will remain so. Overpaying by a lot to overcompensate for that fact is a truly terrible way to run a franchise.

he just got what is essentially a 1 year 7 million deal. the incentives according to reports are easy to reach. he is also in texas which also has no state income tax just like florida. you want us to spend 10 million to eat innings? He's not that good. spending money to spend money is idiotic. They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, but throwing stupid money at a mediocre pitcher like lorenzon now isnt the answer.

They will be fine for opening day. They can go get a cheap innings eater at the deadline for a fringe prospect, just like the phillies gave up for lorenzon last year.

For opening day we have Luzardo, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Soriano, with Meyer, Sixto, Gutierrez, Soriano, and Hoeing also there. Garrett and Cabrera shouldnt be long, and Eury may well be fine. They are fine for right now. They will need innings in august and september. That doesnt mean you spend stupid money now and overpay now.

At the deadline? Dude you have to make it to the deadline to make acquiring a starter necessary. I see us having major pitching issues because of questionable depth.
also as pointed out, turner has made a good chunk of money so he’s more likely to pick where he wants vs most money available .

[lou]

You're just wrong on the money thing. Justin turner turned down more money just last year. This franchise is toxic, and until they display consistent winning it will remain so. Overpaying by a lot to overcompensate for that fact is a truly terrible way to run a franchise.

he just got what is essentially a 1 year 7 million deal. the incentives according to reports are easy to reach. he is also in texas which also has no state income tax just like florida. you want us to spend 10 million to eat innings? He's not that good. spending money to spend money is idiotic. They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, but throwing stupid money at a mediocre pitcher like lorenzon now isnt the answer.

They will be fine for opening day. They can go get a cheap innings eater at the deadline for a fringe prospect, just like the phillies gave up for lorenzon last year.

For opening day we have Luzardo, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Soriano, with Meyer, Sixto, Gutierrez, Soriano, and Hoeing also there. Garrett and Cabrera shouldnt be long, and Eury may well be fine. They are fine for right now. They will need innings in august and september. That doesnt mean you spend stupid money now and overpay now.

The Marlins also were bad in 2022, and then made the playoffs in 2023. If the Marlins offer money, these guys will sign. Some of these small deals - Rosario, Duvall, Lorenzen, Davis, Urshela, Taylor - are so cheap even throwing .5-$1m on top to raise amounts to "still nothing" would get that done as the Marlins have ample playing time open. All of them would sign. Turner isn't a good comparable here.

They could probably have signed Rosario for $3m, JD Davis for $4m, and Lorenzen (who is fine 1-2 times through lineup as I've mentioned numerous times) for $5m with incentives over:

Avisail Garcia
DLC/Brujan going to AAA or DFA'ing Brujan as he is whatever (with Edwards and Dane in AAA getting everyday AB)
Hoeing/Guitterez (in AAA).

This would raise team payroll in 2024 to below 2023.

There is no argument you can make that that Garcia + Marlins AAA depth will out perform Rosario, Davis, and Lorenzen. None. It would pay for itself in the extra 3+ wins. As RMC says, you have to get to the deadline. The deadline is a terrible plan A.

[lou]

They will need innings in august and september. That doesnt mean you spend stupid money now and overpay now.

Also we need to bump this one out as it is especially puzzling with what is happening. They need the innings in APRIL.

What is happening here is Garret and Cabrera are going to have a little longer leashes the rest of the season because they are presumably missing 2-3 starts each in April, plus Eury who who knows, but he's probably not pitching April. If is going to pitch the last few months, he's going to have a longer leash too per outing to make up the innings (assuming he's cruising, and he'll be cruising). The net impact of starting later is the average starts may be a 5.2 in August/September versus 5 IP scenario and frankly, that helps "A LOT" if we're talking about the SP cumulatively throwing an extra 3 IP per week over the span of 6+ weeks. That's an entire reliever workload for a week to not trickle down to Hoeing'sville. The silver lining side effect of these injuries is the theoretical arm maintenance/shut downs won't be as severe and they won't have to in April/May pull guys after 4/5 innings just to make sure there is gas in the tank in late August and September. They have to survive April. Later in the season out look is frankly improving is all I mean here. This burden is shifting to April.

So what they do need is innings now. If Lorenzen only costs that, they should sign Clevinger as a 1 time the lineup guy and throw him very hard April/May and then reassess.

That being said, I think the situation with the bats is more dire and it's literally insane to be sticking with Garcia when upgrades were available for under $3m for the entire season.
I look forward to the egg on my face when Brujan turns into an immediate longterm 3B starter hitting .270/.340/.440 w/ solid defense and top 50 base running which negates everything however. I do think they get a benefit of the doubt with the arms as the old FO + Mel is still around enough, and the Rays certainly have an excellent track record. Maybe you are right Soriano, Guitterez, or someone else absorbs this load so they don't need to sign a Lorenzen/Clevinger. But for $4m bucks why the fuck wouldn't you raise the floor and your odds someone is throwing better innings then Hoeing or Yonny or whoever as someone else is also going to be throwing real innings past those guys? Its not like this is a 1/$11m deal. It's really crazy that exactly what they needed/wanted to happen happened with some outrageous solid veterans taking barely over the minimum deals within the Bruce budget, and then they ignored it all for Garcia and Hoeing?

I will eat all the crow however if Garcia, DLC, and the brotherhood of traveling optionable bench bats and bulk relievers are solid enough though. I think we all know how annoyed we are all going to be when Rosario is at a 2+ WAR pace again immediately for the Rays, JD Davis is JD Davis (or pick M. Taylor/Pham/Duvall/Urshela. You name it), and Lorenzen is a whatever 5th starter that the Marlins do not have.

Too apologetic for them for me. They get no slack for not doing this. Maybe the idea is it's a 79 win team so why be an 82 win team, and 2025 is in fact circled. That's what it says to me.

[fish16]

Justin Turner was a 38-year old man who had already made $80+ million over the course of his career. I would say that falls into the category I listed above.

None of Sixto, Gutierrez, Hoeing and Soriano have pitched 9 innings total in Spring Training. Meyer will be in AAA. I don't see how they're prepared to give you 4-5 innings. We're going to need guys that give us 4-5 innings. Having a guy who gives us 4-5 innings is a need right now, and it'll be a bigger need in August and September.

Again, we are a week away from opening day and michael lorenzon just signed. he is even less likely to give you 4-5 innings than any one of those guys. he's also thoroughly mediocre. I'm not saying they shouldnt have signed a guy who can eat innings this year. i'm saying not signing michael lorenzon for 7+ million a week before the season is not a big deal as he's not that good and isnt stretched out at all. you dont overpay mediocrity because you failed to act earlier in the offseason.

[fish16]

At the deadline? Dude you have to make it to the deadline to make acquiring a starter necessary. I see us having major pitching issues because of questionable depth.
also as pointed out, turner has made a good chunk of money so he’s more likely to pick where he wants vs most money available .

again, im not saying they shouldnt have signed someone, my argument is that giving michael lorenzon 10 million a week before the season when he's not that good nor will he even be ready in the next few weeks is not the end of the world. 2 things can exist simultaneously- they should have signed someone for the back end of the rotation, and overpaying michael lorenzon a week before opening day is a dumb fucking idea.

[fish16]

The Marlins also were bad in 2022, and then made the playoffs in 2023. If the Marlins offer money, these guys will sign. Some of these small deals - Rosario, Duvall, Lorenzen, Davis, Urshela, Taylor - are so cheap even throwing .5-$1m on top to raise amounts to "still nothing" would get that done as the Marlins have ample playing time open. All of them would sign. Turner isn't a good comparable here.

They could probably have signed Rosario for $3m, JD Davis for $4m, and Lorenzen (who is fine 1-2 times through lineup as I've mentioned numerous times) for $5m with incentives over:

Avisail Garcia
DLC/Brujan going to AAA or DFA'ing Brujan as he is whatever (with Edwards and Dane in AAA getting everyday AB)
Hoeing/Guitterez (in AAA).

This would raise team payroll in 2024 to below 2023.

There is no argument you can make that that Garcia + Marlins AAA depth will out perform Rosario, Davis, and Lorenzen. None. It would pay for itself in the extra 3+ wins. As RMC says, you have to get to the deadline. The deadline is a terrible plan A.

Amed rosario was a .2 WAR player over 545 AB's last year and is bad both offensively and not good defensively. I like JD davis but he is not the difference between this team being in or out of it at the deadline. They need an OF more than they need another IF option. Michael lorenzon was terrible for the phillies and is just a guy. None of those guys are making a difference between contention and non-contention. This season will hinge on the pitchers staying healthy, jazz staying healthy, and tim anderson bouncing back or not. If those things happen, they will be in it at the deadline and can add some innings at little cost.

My only argument is that adding lorenzon now on a big overpay because they didnt act earlier in the offseason is a terrible way to run a baseball team.

[Nick]

A more terrible way to run a baseball team is to do nothing and not fill your team needs because you're cheap AF.

[fish16]

A more terrible way to run a baseball team is to do nothing and not fill your team needs because you're cheap AF.

why not sign clevinger to a 20 million a year deal then? Because filling the team needs is more important than making smart decisions right? They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, everyone agrees. that doesnt make paying lorenzon way too much is a good idea, 1 week before spring when he isnt even ready to pitch.

[Nick]

why not sign clevinger to a 20 million a year deal then? Because filling the team needs is more important than making smart decisions right? They should have signed someone earlier in the offseason, everyone agrees. that doesnt make paying lorenzon way too much is a good idea, 1 week before spring when he isnt even ready to pitch.

Lorenzon for 4.5 million going up to 7 million is fucking nothing in the current landscape of the league.

[fish16]

Lorenzon for 4.5 million going up to 7 million is fucking nothing in the current landscape of the league.

He's getting 7 million. The inventives are easy to reach. You said overpay him to make him come here, so now we are talking probably at least a million or 2 more than 7 million. he's not that good. He is an average middle reliever who can give you some innings. He was terrible to end last year, he doesnt strike guys out, and he walks a lot of guys. His velocity has gone down every year for 5 straight years. Also, again, he does nothing to help you opening day,. he just signed. he wont be ready for multiple weeks. how does this help now?

You can complain about them not getting someone earlier while also not trying to act like lorenzon is anything more than a thoroughly mediocre pitcher. He's not worth that much money. He's a career 4.33 XFIP when the vast majority of his innings are out of the bullpen where his stuff should play up. If you look at his career numbers, every time he has been asked to start his K rate plummets, his walk rate goes up, and he puts up middling XFIP numbers. He's a decent righty middle reliever, that's about it.

[lou]

Lorenzon for 4.5 million going up to 7 million is fucking nothing in the current landscape of the league.

And keeps Marlins payroll under $100m for opening day 2024 unless he hits nearly all the incentives.


Without any other signings, this is roughly current status:

Royals +$11m payroll
Twins and White Sox +$21m
Mariners +$34m
Diamondbacks +$35m
Rockies - the Rockies!!!!!! - +$37m (15th overall in payroll)
League Median +$56m


Marlins are going to be 21-23rd in overall payroll, and that would rocket to 18th if they spent $1 more than the Twins and White Sox. The Royals, White Sox, and Rockies have no chance on the season here but are doing things. Especially the Royals who signed a lot of guys which is nice for their fans to have some hope.

The only teams that have a bigger gripe are Baltimore and Tampa, as Baltimore is about the same as Miami and Tampa is less, and they are both better on paper. Their ownership sucks too, but Baltimore is going through a sale in their defense and will likely be ludicrous next year.

Bare minimum, they should be spending $21-35m more on 1 year deals to replace the bottom 2-4 guys on the roster, which is Garcia and Hoeing right now, and what's infuriating is, they could do that for probably $7-8m given what Rosario/Davis/Lorenzen are signing for. There is a good chance adding $30m in payroll would make the Marlins a wild card favorite, much how SD and SF have risen to the top with their larger moves.

It's pathetic Fish16. Don't make excuses for these dingbats. This offseason is a big and bold F grade and it's basically all financially motivated.

[lou]

Amed rosario was a .2 WAR player over 545 AB's last year and is bad both offensively and not good defensively. I like JD davis but he is not the difference between this team being in or out of it at the deadline. They need an OF more than they need another IF option. Michael lorenzon was terrible for the phillies and is just a guy. None of those guys are making a difference between contention and non-contention. This season will hinge on the pitchers staying healthy, jazz staying healthy, and tim anderson bouncing back or not. If those things happen, they will be in it at the deadline and can add some innings at little cost.

My only argument is that adding lorenzon now on a big overpay because they didnt act earlier in the offseason is a terrible way to run a baseball team.

It kind of is, because it's getting 3 of those types of guys. And you know damn well guys have down years and Rosario will likely hit again. And if you don't like him, Tommy Pham. Adam Duvall. Pick your poison here. There were options. Brandon Belt is still out there if you want to play Burger at 3B. Lorenzen/Clevinger will be built up in 2 weeks. That's a nothing burger.


But we're getting Garcia, DLC/Edwards/Dane/Mancini or Brujan, and Hoeing/Guitterez/Faucher/McCaughan versus spending about $10-12m for three solid veterans all projecting around a 1.5 WAR average.

[Nick]

Not signing Michael Lorenzen is not a huge failure in the whole scope of the offseason, but he was the best option left at a reasonable price, so it's notable. /endofdiscussion.