2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

What a weird and premature victory lap. If you send me your address I can give you a “didn’t give up on the guy who hasn’t pitched in 3.5 years” trophy. I hope I’m wrong. Hes pitched 5 spring innings. That’s 2 more innings than full seasons he’s missed consecutively. Can you name a single player in major league history who has missed three consecutive years due to injury and come back? Him coming back would be a massive achievement.

also, it takes literally 2 clicks to click on your name and then type in sixto and find all your posts about the guy

Definitely a premature victory lap. Guilty as charged.

But keep thinking you know more about the Marlins players (and their ability to recover from injury, how much rest relievers need etc) than the organization does. It makes for some fun -and occasionally eye rollling- reading material.

[fish16]

Definitely a premature victory lap. Guilty as charged.

But keep thinking you know more about the Marlins players (and their ability to recover from injury, how much rest relievers need etc) than the organization does. It makes for some fun -and occasionally eye rollling- reading material.

This is not an "ability to recover from injury" situation. This is a guy who has missed 3 full seasons, showed up consistently fatter and fatter outside of last spring, and was throwing less than 90 mph for 3 full seasons. Everyone in baseball gave up on him. The only reason the marlins still have him around is because they optioned him to AAA way back in the spring of 2021 so he has not been accruing service time whatsoever. If you thought this organization was confident that his 4th year back from injury was going to be the one where he really gets back healthy, youre lying to yourself. It's a great story, i hope he comes back and can succeed. he was electric in 2020.

Do me a favor and name another pitcher who came back after 3 full seasons injured?

Also, skip's bullpen decisions in the 2nd half last year were horrific. Just because we overachieved doesnt mean he is above reproach. He consistently threw the towel in games that he did not need to. That doesnt mean i know more than the organization, but that also doesnt mean they are above criticism for decisions.

He also did not pitch our best arm all year last year until the last inning of our season and the phillies series when we were down 1-0 in the series and 7-1 in the game. In the first game of that series, he threw Soriano, Brazoban, and Okert for the last 3 innings in a close game instead of Nardi and scott. He's a good manager, but he needs to make better decisions with his bullpen.

[Nick]

I'm worried about the bullpen, especially if Scott and Nardi have a regression. Scott was fucking electric last year one of the best relievers in baseball, but it also wasn't that long ago that most of us were saying get this guy off the team. The way it's set up, again I see Bryan Hoeing pitching a lot of innings for us, and while I think he's a solid AAAA long reliever spot starter, we're definitely going to be asking more than that from him this year with the way I'm seeing things set up.

[lou]

This is not an "ability to recover from injury" situation. This is a guy who has missed 3 full seasons, showed up consistently fatter and fatter outside of last spring, and was throwing less than 90 mph for 3 full seasons. Everyone in baseball gave up on him. The only reason the marlins still have him around is because they optioned him to AAA way back in the spring of 2021 so he has not been accruing service time whatsoever. If you thought this organization was confident that his 4th year back from injury was going to be the one where he really gets back healthy, youre lying to yourself. It's a great story, i hope he comes back and can succeed. he was electric in 2020.

Do me a favor and name another pitcher who came back after 3 full seasons injured?

Also, skip's bullpen decisions in the 2nd half last year were horrific. Just because we overachieved doesnt mean he is above reproach. He consistently threw the towel in games that he did not need to. That doesnt mean i know more than the organization, but that also doesnt mean they are above criticism for decisions.

He also did not pitch our best arm all year last year until the last inning of our season and the phillies series when we were down 1-0 in the series and 7-1 in the game. In the first game of that series, he threw Soriano, Brazoban, and Okert for the last 3 innings in a close game instead of Nardi and scott. He's a good manager, but he needs to make better decisions with his bullpen.

Or were guys just overworked too heavily early on, some guys needed recovery days we don't know about as they aren't machines, the Kim-lytics department was calling down moves (which I think Bendix will do even more TBH but he may be better at it because "look at what Tampa does"), or maybe some of the guys were just not that great and the underlying analytics are wrong (Okert, etc.)? Just saying here, I didn't really have massive problems with usage but at the same time it could have been better. I think horrific is a bit much which is the only point I'm making here. I don't blame them at all for not using Scott in the Phillies series. The pitchers who lost that series were Luzardo, Robertson, and Nardi and frankly, that's the ship you go down with as those were the best guys.

[lou]

I'm worried about the bullpen, especially if Scott and Nardi have a regression. Scott was fucking electric last year one of the best relievers in baseball, but it also wasn't that long ago that most of us were saying get this guy off the team. The way it's set up, again I see Bryan Hoeing pitching a lot of innings for us, and while I think he's a solid AAAA long reliever spot starter, we're definitely going to be asking more than that from him this year with the way I'm seeing things set up.

I'm not too worried, and it's because of this. 350 innings of Okert, Brazoban, Floro, Cueto, Hoeing, Barnes, Lopez, Smeltzer, Bradley etc. last year. I mean seriously. Nolin, Lindgren, Castano, Hartlieb, De Jesus, and Chi Chi Gonzalez threw over 27 innings of that. That's beyond replacement innings and just insane they had to dip that far. This is generally well over a 5 ERA for this group and that's a lot of innings. Only Hoeing from this group is likely getting notable time if Brzaoban does have the visa issue.

The pool of these 350 innings this year are.... Weathers, Max, Bender, yes Hoeing is in here still for sure at the moment, additional Soriano innings who seems pretty alright, Sixto(!), and then some of these new relievers like Cronin, Maldonado. Others like Faucher, McCaughan, Guitterez, Yonny, etc. are here too. Guitterez and Yonny are especially interesting if they are fully healthy IMO. I think this is going to be an overall tremendous improvement. I really like Weathers and that's before spring training, and I have a lot of confidence in Max/Bender/Soriano/and maybe even Sixto with what's going on right now.

So overall, if some dings are coming with Scott and Nardi regressing a little (as well as Rogers/Puk not being as good as Sandy as their extra innings likely are close to a 1-1 swap with what Sandy did), this back end group should make it up. Perhaps drastically. There is also the potential Cabrera walks a little less guys and has a complete breakout into a top 20 MLB SP, Eury goes full Fernandez even if its 140 innings, Garrett goes full Glavine-lite, etc.

I think they are about 125 IP short right now (and that includes a reasonable injury estimation on my end). So that 350 clump is kind of cut into a third with their arm depth right now. And that's where we're talking frankly Hoeing, Cronin, Maldonado, Faucher, McCaughan, Guitterez, Yonny, throw in Monteverde, and all those guys come in. So yea, Hoeing is going to throw half of those innings for sure at the moment, hence we go back to this every day - just fucking sign Lorenzen or Clevinger. But this really isn't a major concern. I'd say moderate. That's a lot of innings, but over half of that will be garbage time for sure so those innings aren't hurting you too much. But these guys are going to have to throw competitive innings every week absent a move. They should make a move even if its just Clevinger or attacking waivers for some incredibly boring 5th SP that gets cut loose. Hence, why I think the Garcia-Corbin salary dump makes a ton of sense, etc.

[Nick]

I'm surprised we didn't see more of Monteverde this spring. Wonder if he's dealing with something.

[fish16]

Or were guys just overworked too heavily early on, some guys needed recovery days we don't know about as they aren't machines, the Kim-lytics department was calling down moves (which I think Bendix will do even more TBH but he may be better at it because "look at what Tampa does"), or maybe some of the guys were just not that great and the underlying analytics are wrong (Okert, etc.)? Just saying here, I didn't really have massive problems with usage but at the same time it could have been better. I think horrific is a bit much which is the only point I'm making here. I don't blame them at all for not using Scott in the Phillies series. The pitchers who lost that series were Luzardo, Robertson, and Nardi and frankly, that's the ship you go down with as those were the best guys.

i really dont care to discuss it because it's 6 months ago, but david robertson was in no way part of "the best guys." The dude made jorge julio and heath bell look good in his time here. The guy who was easily the "best guy" in the bullpen all year, was Tanner scott and his absurd 2.8 WAR out of the bullpen all year. And he pitched a single garbage inning when the series was already over.

[fish16]

I'm surprised we didn't see more of Monteverde this spring. Wonder if he's dealing with something.

he got torched in AAA. He needs a lot of work there before he becomes an mlb option. he cant rely on pure stuff to get by like some guys.

[Namaste]

Marlins went 4 for 29 yesterday vs the mighty Nationals weeeeeeee

[Nick]

he got torched in AAA. He needs a lot of work there before he becomes an mlb option. he cant rely on pure stuff to get by like some guys.

Seemed to me like he ran out of gas or was dealing with something more than anything. His numbers right before getting called up to AAA and then after weren't great either. I'll still be interested to see how he does this year in AAA. If he does well, he'll get at least a cup of coffee in the big leagues this year, because we'll need him.

[fish16]

on a positive note garrett seems to be progressing without setbacks, albeit a little slowly. Good sign. they desperately need him. Because we have the off day puk was throwing a minor league game today to stay on schedule

[fish16]

the braves just signed duvall for 3 million. so they are going to have a pretty great platoon between him and kelenic, and it will have cost them 3 million plus eating the salary for a mariners player to get kelenic. Annoying to see how much better this team could make itself with a competent, non cheap owner.

[lou]

the braves just signed duvall for 3 million. so they are going to have a pretty great platoon between him and kelenic, and it will have cost them 3 million plus eating the salary for a mariners player to get kelenic. Annoying to see how much better this team could make itself with a competent, non cheap owner.

To be fair in this instance, it is ring chasing. That being said, the Marlins offering $7.5m to make it worth his while to not take the lower deal, or a $5-7m for Rosario to beat the Yankees alleged offer, both fall well into the "cheap owner" category. The Marlins should be in on $5-7m free agents that improve the team.

If Duvall is signing this, I suppose that mean Pham, M. Taylor, and J. Davis are similar, so where the F is that deal?

Why not sign Davis and Taylor (I imagine Pham goes back to San Diego with the Cease move???), option DLC and his .444 spring OPS to AAA, and run this out:

Fortes, Bethancourt
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Brujan
Anderson, Berti
Davis
Gordon
Jazz, M. Taylor
Sanchez

And maybe Brujan you can just DFA and keep in AAA if he sucks for a month as that'll convince an Oakland/Chicago to not claim him, etc. DLC/Edwards/maybe Mancini rebounds are likely really good AAA depth call ups who would each carve out time. These guys aren't all staying healthy.


But Atlanta is just stacked. $3m bucks for Duvall would be huge for the Marlins.

[fish16]

the guy they should be after is Tommy Pham. I'm not sure if i've mentioned it before but i think DLC sucks. He just doesnt give much. Tommy Pham is a legitimate proven bat. His baseball savant page from last year was really good. He can slot in LF right away and provide an immediate pretty sizable upgrade. I would love the outfield of Jazz, Sanchez, Pham, Gordon, and then DLC i guess as a 5th OF. We need lefty killers in the OF, and pham mashes lefties for his career. .834 OPS lifetime. He would be the perfect addition. And his defense isnt anything special but it's not an albatross. Good arm and just about average OAA last year. Cant imagine he would cost much either.

[lou]

the guy they should be after is Tommy Pham. I'm not sure if i've mentioned it before but i think DLC sucks. He just doesnt give much. Tommy Pham is a legitimate proven bat. His baseball savant page from last year was really good. He can slot in LF right away and provide an immediate pretty sizable upgrade. I would love the outfield of Jazz, Sanchez, Pham, Gordon, and then DLC i guess as a 5th OF. We need lefty killers in the OF, and pham mashes lefties for his career. .834 OPS lifetime. He would be the perfect addition. And his defense isnt anything special but it's not an albatross. Good arm and just about average OAA last year. Cant imagine he would cost much either.

Sure, but he will be a tougher sign. San Diego is a good landing place for him right now IMO, but sign me up. Michael Taylor is from Fort Lauderdale, I think if you're going to get a 1 year hometown discount, it's right there. CF defense + hits lefties, he too is perfect as discussed by all of us all offseason.


If they weren't assholes, they'd do this over 3 moves and this can't be more than $110m (i.e. last year)

JD Davis ----> DFA Garcia

Taylor/Pham -----> Option DLC to AAA (Edwards already in AAA). Or DFA Brujan and keep one of them.

Lorenzen/Clevinger ----> At full strength, this is optioning Soriano or Bender to AAA (or Sixto ends up a DFA as he is not cutting it), but with Cabrera/Garrett/Eury/Chargois all banged up, this is optioning Hoeing/Cronin/Munoz to AAA right now. Plus if Chargois is out 2-3 months with the back like you mentioned, this is just that spot. Frankly, I think there is plenty of room here for everyone. Pitchers 14-17 on the depth chart are going to throw 100-200 innings even with Lorenzen as everyone is always hurt.
(Or do a salary dump trade and get Patrick Corbin here for Garcia, Nasim rights, + a whatever FV40, same effective money move)


Fortes, Bethancourt
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Brujan
Anderson, Berti
Davis
Gordon
Jazz, Taylor/Pham
Sanchez

(AAA - Casali, Johnston, Edwards, Amaya, Gray, DLC, Mesa Jr., Myers, Mancini w/ Bride super utility.... which is kind of a good AAA lineup). Marlins bats 14+ on the roster last year after the main 13 got roughly 850 PA last year (closer to 1,000 PA in 2022). Nearly all of that can probably go to DLC and Edwards ultimately you know? And we are OK with those guys getting 400+ PA each as-is right now so Davis + Taylor create a massive floor production here?


Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers (140+ IP each)
Puk, Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin, Rogers (110+ IP each as bulk RP)
Scott, Nardi, Bender, Chargois, Sixto

(AAA - Max, Soriano, Hoeing, Yonny, Guitterez, McCaughan, Monteverde, Faucher, Cronin, Munoz, Simpson, Smeltzer, and Brazoban(?)... which is also kind of good as if we're anticipating 200+ injury innings, Max and Soriano are easily half of this and we'd be fine with them day # 1 on the team, and someone has gotta be alright from the rest of them for garbage innings. Someone is going to work out from Yonny/Guitterez/Hoeing in spurts/Monteverde/whoever).


The team still needs a major positional (offensive) upgrade at C, SS, or LF, but maybe you get 2022 Bethancourt (1.8 WAR), 2022 Anderson (2 WAR), and 2022 Gordon (1.6 WAR). That's a very quick 5+ WAR you know, and JD Davis has 2+ last year, M. Taylor 1.5+ last year, and you're going to get 1+ WAR out of an arm like Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin over 100+ innings. Serious floor raising here and sets them up IMO to survive until July 20th and seek an upgrade if need be.


This is so cheap and so obvious. Davis, Pham/Taylor, and Lorenzen/Clevinger. Just sitting there and gets Namaste to that 82 win W/L vegas projection he wants. Which gets them into a margin of error on 1 run bullpen luck again. I really hate Bruce Sherman.