2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Loren zen is apparently looking for a 2 year deal

[lou]

Bruce has had the opportunity to spend to offset some of these unexpected bumps in the road and refuses to. Why should we believe he’d spend in a “perfect” scenario that will NEVER happen. There’s always going to be an unexpected injury to a key guy. The never ending excuse of “wait until x year, then we’ll be ready” is ridiculous and inexcusable IMO.

Because the cheap guys only want to spend money when they can get as close to guarantees as possible, and if we're talking they have a 1600-1800 quality MLB arm inventory in 2025 (i.e. they can really trade Luzardo and not miss a beat) + spend to "just" $110-120m range, I think he'd do it to an extent. This is may not be a "Werth" move we want (I imagine for 2025 purposes, this would be signing Adames or Gleyber but that's more difficult to expect a $125-150m contract, or hell just extending Arraez), but I think they'd scale to an opening day $110-120m if they look like a top 3-4 team in the NL which they frankly would with some modest improvements. The staff might be really really intense with top 1 upside in baseball - and that's potentially without Luzardo.

Basically, this is like moving out Luzardo for say Coby Mayo/Another big Orioles name further away (Bradfield?), signing Danny Jansen in FA, signing say Anthony Santander to a Soler kind of deal to balance out all the lefty OF, keeping Berti as a bench luxury, and then dipping into the farm with a Noble/White trade as you have the arms longterm and for the love of god, you need a SS (this is the reverse Yelich trade and they finally do a prospect/plant the flag move which just costs people not money, but that's OK as you got youth back for moving Luzardo and presumably Scott/Bell/others at the deadline). Easily $120m team in 2025:

C Jansen, Fortes/Bethancourt/Banfield
1B Arraez, Burger
2B Edwards, Brujan/Gordon/Amaya
SS "Dude for Noble/White and more that is club controlled", Berti
3B Mayo
LF Santander, DLC/Gordon
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
Bulk - Puk, Max, Weathers
HL RP - Nardi, Bender
RP - Pick three of Sixto/Faucher/Soriano/Hoeing/Maldonado/Simpson/literally anyone. They'll have some good enough guys for last 3 spots here and as mentioned, Scott is going to get traded when they don't contend and he could turn into a young RP too, etc. Not worried about this clump. This is where "the Rays" thrive.


That team is awesome on paper and isn't breaking the bank longterm. Call me optimistic as I said, but I think Bruce would do this "if everything goes right" (i.e. all the arms are healthy at the end of 2024, and I mean all of them), but I am with you, that may never happen as someone like Sandy or Max always blows out an arm. So that's why Bruce sucks in that he won't operate as a real owner and help the team.

[lou]

Loren zen is apparently looking for a 2 year deal

I saw that too, and I would do it within reason. I think he'd be a really solid 4+ inning SP/Bulk guy over 120+ innings/30+ appearances. His numbers are pretty good first time through the order, and he'd be perfect to match with Rogers/Puk/Weathers as a combo SP and everyone gets max 15-18 batters depending on how they look/game situations. It's frankly, what they thought Cueto would be last year, but I can't imagine any signing would go that poorly again.

They are going to win/lose on the arms in 2024 as no major bat upgrade is coming in 2024 so someone like him would be the most impactful addition to me, and that also increases the potential arm inventory in 2025 so you can more easily trade presumably Luzardo (2nd most expensive after Sandy) for the huge club controlled bats they need. It makes sense, unless they are supremely confident with someone in the Faucher, Soriano McCaughan, Guitterez, Hoeing, etc. camp of arms who could fill this 100+ inning spot they do need. I'm hesitant there, but also I don't know much about those guys besides Soriano/Hoeing so maybe they are going to pull another Thompson/Garrett out of their ass from this group.

[fish16]

skip says Burger and Bell will split DH this year and Burger will play some 1b. I hope to see a lot of creativity getting the rest of the guys on the roster like Edwards, Gordon, and Brujan close to every day at bats.

[Nick]

skip says Burger and Bell will split DH this year and Burger will play some 1b. I hope to see a lot of creativity getting the rest of the guys on the roster like Edwards, Gordon, and Brujan close to every day at bats.

Hopefully a sign that Avi is gone.

[fish16]

Hopefully a sign that Avi is gone.

i just cant imagine him still being here opening day. last year there was at least an argument that it was 1 down year and they were expecting a bounce back. there is 0 way you can spin him being on the roster still.

[lou]

skip says Burger and Bell will split DH this year and Burger will play some 1b. I hope to see a lot of creativity getting the rest of the guys on the roster like Edwards, Gordon, and Brujan close to every day at bats.

Good, and agree with Nick, this is a big sign Avi is about to be cut.


A start permutation based on a DH split and Burger at 1B sometimes brings us to this. The bold is the big one to me which frankly has to happen with this info:

1B Bell 60 / Burger 21 ---> Which means Arraez 81 games at 1B as no one else would make sense here (!!!)
2B Arraez 60 / _________ (100 more to go)
SS Anderson 130 / Berti 32
3B Berti 70 / Burger 30 / ________ (60 more to go)
DH - Bell 81 / Burger 81

These are full season loads for Arraez, Bell, Burger, Anderson, and Berti. I'll get to the blank lines:

On top of this, if there are 486 OF starts and Jazz and Sanchez are going to eat call it 236 of them (as they get sit for lefties a lot)...


That brings us to they have 4 non-catcher roster spots and these starts needed, so roughly 100+ per guy.

100 2B
60 3B
250 OF spots

This is DLC, Gordon, Brujan, and without Garcia -----> Edwards.

It's frankly Edwards/Brujan combining for 160 IF and 50 OF starts, and Gordon/DLC getting 200+ OF starts. All of that makes sense, and cannot be possible with Garcia on the roster unless they are OK playing N. Gordon at 2B a considerable amount of time, and I don't think they are going to do that but I could be wrong.

Free Edwards. Get Arrarez to 1B half the time against RHP, get Edwards those 2B starts, Brujan the 3B ones w/ some OF time against lefties, and just pray DLC/Gordon hit enough. I love them telegraphing Bell/Burger are going to DH. They get it. This is setting up to be a good defensive team with only DLC in the OF, Burger limited time at 3B, Arraez limited time at 2B, and whoever is playing CF when Jazz isn't starting as the only major underwhelming spots. That's pretty good, especially if DLC/Gordon/Brujan can improve defensively in the OF.

[rmc523]

I saw that too, and I would do it within reason. I think he'd be a really solid 4+ inning SP/Bulk guy over 120+ innings/30+ appearances. His numbers are pretty good first time through the order, and he'd be perfect to match with Rogers/Puk/Weathers as a combo SP and everyone gets max 15-18 batters depending on how they look/game situations. It's frankly, what they thought Cueto would be last year, but I can't imagine any signing would go that poorly again.

They are going to win/lose on the arms in 2024 as no major bat upgrade is coming in 2024 so someone like him would be the most impactful addition to me, and that also increases the potential arm inventory in 2025 so you can more easily trade presumably Luzardo (2nd most expensive after Sandy) for the huge club controlled bats they need. It makes sense, unless they are supremely confident with someone in the Faucher, Soriano McCaughan, Guitterez, Hoeing, etc. camp of arms who could fill this 100+ inning spot they do need. I'm hesitant there, but also I don't know much about those guys besides Soriano/Hoeing so maybe they are going to pull another Thompson/Garrett out of their ass from this group.

At this point if his offers have been limited, why not throw a 1 + option year deal (maybe with some incentives to sweeten the pot for him) his way and hope Mel works some magic for improvements?

then if we’re out of it, you can trade him at the deadline for some prospects and, if we’re in it, keep him…. and if he opts out, oh well you got that performance for this year when you had a lot of innings question marks, and Sandy will “replace” him next year.

[lou]

At this point if his offers have been limited, why not throw a 1 + option year deal (maybe with some incentives to sweeten the pot for him) his way and hope Mel works some magic for improvements?

then if we’re out of it, you can trade him at the deadline for some prospects and, if we’re in it, keep him…. and if he opts out, oh well you got that performance for this year when you had a lot of innings question marks, and Sandy will “replace” him next year.

Yep totally. They made their bed with the bats, so the way to help them is prevent runs at this point. Create a real strength in depth. Lorenzen would be a big addition and then we can pray Gordon/Brujan hit their prospect status, Edwards becomes Arraez-lite offensively, and the bombs rain from Burger, Sanchez, Jazz, DLC, and Bell who all 5 are in arbitration/free agency years so there is the get paid incentive. It would all work out.

If every arm does stay healthy and Lorenzen is on a 2 year deal, it's not going to be hard to move say, Jesus Luzardo and Trevor Rogers next year. Imagine what those two in a combo gets from someone like the Orioles or Red Sox, and the Marlins could still roll this out internally:

SP - Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera
SP/Bulk - Max, Puk, Lorenzen, Weathers
HL RP - Nardi, Bender
RP - They will have CC options + maybe Sixto becomes a big piece again. Not worried here at all about last few pen arms.

That's without Luzardo and Rogers, and having a top 5 SP prospect in baseball with Noble and maybe White, Fulton, Monteverde, Millbrandt, or whoever takes a step forward.

I just don't see any downside on Lorenzen, unless they think he just sucks and Faucher/Soriano/Others can just match him (which they might?????). The FIP and whiffs aren't good, but I think it's usage and you just play him 15+ batters per appearance but get 30+ appearances out of him so it's over 100+ innings. That's all they need here to really open up some arm options. Cleavinger could also be a cheaper option here for just 2024. He is probably fine as a 1+ time through the lineup guy with quick hooks too.

[fish16]

id wait till closer to the deadline to reevaluate the need for another P who can eat innings. Like i said, we're in a weird position where we have a lot of pitching depth but a ton of innings limits. let the kids loose until the deadline and then see what you need if we're still in it. I'd much rather see a guy like Meyer or sixto pitching out of the bullpen to see what we have than a veteran average innings eater. You can find those for pretty cheap when the time comes.

[Nick]

id wait till closer to the deadline to reevaluate the need for another P who can eat innings. Like i said, we're in a weird position where we have a lot of pitching depth but a ton of innings limits. let the kids loose until the deadline and then see what you need if we're still in it. I'd much rather see a guy like Meyer or sixto pitching out of the bullpen to see what we have than a veteran average innings eater. You can find those for pretty cheap when the time comes.

Lorenzen would take Bryan Hoeing's spot most likely. He probably wouldn't be ready by opening day anyway. A spot will inevitably open up shortly, it's a desperate need for the longhaul of the season. Spend money now instead of prospects at the deadline.

[fish16]

Lorenzen would take Bryan Hoeing's spot most likely. He probably wouldn't be ready by opening day anyway. A spot will inevitably open up shortly, it's a desperate need for the longhaul of the season. Spend money now instead of prospects at the deadline.

I dont think Hoeing is making the roster absent a few more injuries. And if he does, he will be back down shortly once garrett gets healthy and Brazoban figures out his visa issue for the 3rd straight year.

Staff will include- Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Chargois, Scott, Nardi, Soriano, Bender. That's 11. Then you have Garrett when he comes back, Brazoban when he gets cleared at the border, Meyer, Chirinos, maybe Sixto, then the likes of Simpson, Maldonado, Faucher, Cronin who are all on the 40 man. They have a lot of options. you can find a guy for dirt cheap at the deadline to eat some innings. I wouldnt be upset if they got lorenzon but it's not a dire need right now. they have arms.

[fish16]

This is where i would have the roster as of today-

C- Fortes/Betancourt
1b- Bell
2b- Arraez
SS- Anderson
3b- Burger
LF- Gordon
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- DLC
Bench- Backup C, Berti, Brujan, Edwards

SP- Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Puk, Rogers
RP- Nardi, Scott, Weathers, Chargois, Meyer, Soriano, Bender, Maldonado

This is what i would do, not necessarily what i think the final roster would be.

[lou]

Lorenzen would take Bryan Hoeing's spot most likely. He probably wouldn't be ready by opening day anyway. A spot will inevitably open up shortly, it's a desperate need for the longhaul of the season. Spend money now instead of prospects at the deadline.

This. 100%.

I'm frankly not sure they can upgrade any bat via FA at this point if we assume Bell/Burger are a split DH. It would basically be a dedicated platoon 1B (with Arraez more at 2B, and Edwards in AAA... so it's upgrading Edwards). Brandon Belt? Maybe this is what they were thinking with Mancini TBH and the plan was to always kick Garcia and Trey was the cheap version of finding this platoon 1B if Edwards is desired in AAA. But he looks like a bust. Or, they could get a platoon 2B/3B so Berti/Brujan gets moved around. This is where I scream why is Rosario or Urshela not on this team for $1.5m??? So it's maybe Brandon Belt and no one else in free agency at this point to genuinely upgrade the offense. (I think they like DLC enough to not option him to AAA, but maybe he'd be an option to do that and get Taylor/Pham/Duvall.)

Which gets to, assuming health, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Puk, Weathers, Scott, Nardi, Bender, and Chargois are locks, with Sixto and Soriano/Faucher/Hoeing as the 12th and 13th. So yes agree completely, a new arm is replacing a "Hoeing" longman spot and at least four guys - Snell, Montgomery, Lorenzen, and Clevinger - are either clear as day epic upgrades or probable upgrades for cheap. Those last two are obviously the names here to be considered.

Spend the money now. Come out strong. Build in depth. Add injury protection for whatever is up with Garrett. Deadline is a different monster. Sign me up for Belt (.891 OPS vs RHP last year) for 100+ games at 1B and kicking Edwards to AAA as the "14th" bat (I still think he gets 300+ MLB PA in this role) and Lorenzen to kick all of Soriano/Faucher/Hoeing to AAA (and those guys too will still get 100+ innings), or Sixto is a pumpkin and he gets replaced. Belt and Lorenzen had a combined 4 WAR last year, and if the Marlins get 60% of that over 350-400 PA and 100+ innings, that is a win in my book and increases the team floor even if that scales payroll to the ludicrous amount of $110m, or aka, what they spent last year.

[sports24/7]

I love the idea of screwing the Red Sox as they have perfect longterm pieces for the Marlins, but the Marlins don't have anywhere near the arm inventory to trade IMO.

In a best case scenario, they might get this for MLB innings:

180 - Luzardo
150 - Garrett (knocking him down a few missing part of April)
140 - Eury, Cabrera, Rogers
110 - Puk
70 - Scott
60 - Nardi, Bender, Chargois
50 - Sixto(?)
---
11 Roster spots - 1160 innings. Full season is 1440.


So for those last two roster spots which are the wild cards of course:

160 - Weathers. He has this arm inventory if they let him loose and he can actually do it
110 - Max, but I have no idea how many of these will be at the MLB level


That basically gets them to 1440 day 1, and then Faucher/Soriano/McCaughan/Guitterez/Brazoban/Hoeing can be the replacement innings, which I think is objectively pretty good depth. Boy would Sandy change this dynamic big time. Sigh.

However practically, someone is going to get hurt, Weathers isn't going to throw those innings IMO (I can see closer to 110 and is used as a 3-4 IP bulk guy like Puk. They said earlier this offseason they view Weathers as a longman FWIW), half of Max is probably going to be in the minors, and some of those other numbers are optimistic. You can see a 200-300 inning scale back quickly where our Faucher/Gang grouping above is legitimately throwing those innings as-is. If they were to move the Red Sox even Rogers or Puk on top of this, that number shoots over 300-400 innings needed for those guys, and it's obviously more if Luzardo. That's frankly A LOT to be trusting that Faucher/gang to be throwing those kinds of innings.


In a perfect world, I think they ADD a SP (Lorenzen, Cleavinger as a bulk, etc.) and have that guy and Weathers penciled in for 240+ innings, so we're talking Max gets them over 1440, and maybe Faucher/gang and then pencil'd in for a max 200 innings. Which isn't a bad number spread out in short bursts over the course of the season with an aggressive call up strategy.


Long story long, they don't have the arm inventory..... but in 2025, add Sandy, Max, and an ordinary RP, and kick Scott and Chargois off the team, and this number rockets past 1600 MLB innings. That's when they can trade IMO.

Haven’t you been advocating for a Luzardo trade all offseason? We know the Marlins are at least listening to offers on arms, so they must have some sort of plan if they trade one.