2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

An offensive starved team that is in the middle of a regime change when it comes to baseball personnel, with a history of inept decisions when it comes to offensive personnel. Max Muncy was just as much of a middling prospect in AAA at Age 26 as Troy Johnston is, if not moreso. I'd argue Johnston is a more consistent performer at this stage. Muncy had a little bit of Major League Experience at that time, which Johnston doesn't, but was very unproductive in his MLB stints at that point.

The existing Marlins brass beyond Kim is mostly relatively intact and they passed to keep him just to be clear here. I mean organizations do make mistakes (see Uggla and Canha of course), but I have a hard time seeing this one being a mistake. If he makes it, he’s going to be a worse Ty France sort of guy who spikes a little vs RHP. Maybe survives as a bench bat a few years.

Max Muncy is a different animal. We can’t look at minor league slashes and compare guys. It’s like saying Yusmiero Petit in AA is Eury Perez. They both killed it.

[Nick]

The existing Marlins brass beyond Kim is mostly relatively intact and they passed to keep him just to be clear here. I mean organizations do make mistakes (see Uggla and Canha of course), but I have a hard time seeing this one being a mistake. If he makes it, he’s going to be a worse Ty France sort of guy who spikes a little vs RHP. Maybe survives as a bench bat a few years.

Max Muncy is a different animal. We can’t look at minor league slashes and compare guys. It’s like saying Yusmiero Petit in AA is Eury Perez. They both killed it.

He's a different animal, we're unsure how-so, but he is, ok. Max Muncy was released by the Athletics and signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers. There are a ton of similarities. Now, like I said Max Muncy is a very rare unicorn of an instance, but their circumstances and the types of players they are at 26 years old are damn similar.

Plus let's remember, the Troy Johnston's of the world missed an entire year of playing competitive baseball due to Covid. There are going to be more late bloomers around the league.

[fish16]

Max muncy was not this kind of power hitter in the minors. The only similarity is that max muncy bloomed at an older age. That's really it. He was not a power hitter in the minors until he got to the dodgers organization. The only year he showed power in the minors was in the A+ california league which is the best hitters league in the minors. other than that, by year he hit 4, 7, 4, 8, and 12 hr's by year in the minors. Muncy is more of a testament to the dodgers scouting and player development system.

Muncy is the exception and the outlier, not the rule.

[Nick]

And Johnston jumped being a 15 HR to a 26 HR hitter in his age 25-26 season. I'm just saying there are similarities.

[fish16]

One trade that just makes too much sense is tanner scott and Rogers to Baltimore for 2 of their young hitters. Bautista is going to be out all of next year so they need a closer, they are obviously familiar with tanner scott, and they need young pitching so even if rogers stock is low, it makes too much sense. Given they are a "small market team", going to get a hader type guy who is super cheap makes all the sense in the world for them, and scott would have a ton of value for us combined with rogers potential to get us 2 long term lineup pieces.

According to mlb pipeline, "there is no question Ortiz will be able to handle shortstop in the big leagues." He can be slotted in opening day and you have a long term SS, and then trust bendix to find the 2nd piece that he and his team like as the 2nd player in that deal. Samuel Basallo makes a ton of sense. Not big league ready but if you go get a stop gap catcher, maybe he is ready 2025 and with sandy back that year, you have a real contender that year with him back, Cabrera hopefully getting the control a little more manageable, and more development from Luzardo and Eury.

I love Tanner scott and what he did last year, but given his contract status and how cheap he is for next year, he is appealing to every single team in the league, and we can really capitalize on his value. the rays really dont pay relievers, they have completely mastered the idea of selling high, so i think it's likely he gets dealt. We have too many holes elsewhere, specifically in the lineup long term, not to capitalize on his value. We have Puk and Nardi behind him, and quality relievers are not hard to find. If his value is as high as we think it might be, you have to move him and try to get some long term lineup pieces. Signing guys isnt the answer with our payroll constraints, trading for guys with team control on the periphery of the big leagues is the answer.

I highly doubt it, but what if you throw them Cabrera or Max Meyer instead of rogers and try to go get Mayo and Ortiz. I highly doubt they do that, but that slingshots us forward with our long term lineup so much more than what we have right now. You slot Ortiz into SS, Mayo at 1b, Bell at DH, sign a C like Garver, and maybe you can compete this upcoming year and take a huge leap in 2025.

[fish16]

as much as it sucks to say, i dont think you necessarily punt this upcoming year, but you're building with an eye towards 2025 when sandy comes back. It's not out of the realm of possibility for us to make the playoffs again next year, but it's an extremely tall task with how young the starters are and without sandy's ability to eat 220 innings. Im not saying you do nothing this offseason, but you make moves with an eye towards the future moreso than going all in to winning this upcoming year. This year will be about developing whatever we get in terms of long term position players as well as stretching out the starting pitchers like Garrett, Luzardo, Eury, and Cabrera, and even Meyer coming back, so that they have limited innings restrictions or no innings restrictions at all in 2025. I think that's our year to really take the next step. Last year was awesome, but we all understand it was a lot of smoke and mirrors, so i think Bendix recognizes that and will build this team with a long term plan in mind.

[lou]

He's a different animal, we're unsure how-so, but he is, ok. Max Muncy was released by the Athletics and signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers. There are a ton of similarities. Now, like I said Max Muncy is a very rare unicorn of an instance, but their circumstances and the types of players they are at 26 years old are damn similar.

Plus let's remember, the Troy Johnston's of the world missed an entire year of playing competitive baseball due to Covid. There are going to be more late bloomers around the league.

We’re not unsure how. Johnston has 40-45 grade power and he’s not going to improve on that. End of story. That’s not going to play at 1B/DH absent an at minimum Ty France hit profile. If you want to pick some random late bloomer like Muncy and base it on low HR output in the minors, it’s someone like McIntosh who may figure it out. McIntosh is going to have larger power grades than Johnston so if he clicks, he could get real interesting fast like Muncy did.

Just want to mention here too I’d have protected him because they have space right now and there are more puzzling names on the 40 man right now, but I don’t think this is a big deal. Hes probably a bench bat and he’d be behind Dane and Burdick for that spot when there are injuries.

[rmc523]

as much as it sucks to say, i dont think you necessarily punt this upcoming year, but you're building with an eye towards 2025 when sandy comes back. It's not out of the realm of possibility for us to make the playoffs again next year, but it's an extremely tall task with how young the starters are and without sandy's ability to eat 220 innings. Im not saying you do nothing this offseason, but you make moves with an eye towards the future moreso than going all in to winning this upcoming year. This year will be about developing whatever we get in terms of long term position players as well as stretching out the starting pitchers like Garrett, Luzardo, Eury, and Cabrera, and even Meyer coming back, so that they have limited innings restrictions or no innings restrictions at all in 2025. I think that's our year to really take the next step. Last year was awesome, but we all understand it was a lot of smoke and mirrors, so i think Bendix recognizes that and will build this team with a long term plan in mind.

Yeah, I agree this year will be a sort of retool/coast year unless Bendix is able to make some big moves and maybe Bruce opens the purse strings a bit.

I hate the shifting goalposts thing, but 2025 will be the "real" target with Sandy returning, and hopefully all innings limits gone for the younger guys.

[lou]

One trade that just makes too much sense is tanner scott and Rogers to Baltimore for 2 of their young hitters. Bautista is going to be out all of next year so they need a closer, they are obviously familiar with tanner scott, and they need young pitching so even if rogers stock is low, it makes too much sense. Given they are a "small market team", going to get a hader type guy who is super cheap makes all the sense in the world for them, and scott would have a ton of value for us combined with rogers potential to get us 2 long term lineup pieces.

According to mlb pipeline, "there is no question Ortiz will be able to handle shortstop in the big leagues." He can be slotted in opening day and you have a long term SS, and then trust bendix to find the 2nd piece that he and his team like as the 2nd player in that deal. Samuel Basallo makes a ton of sense. Not big league ready but if you go get a stop gap catcher, maybe he is ready 2025 and with sandy back that year, you have a real contender that year with him back, Cabrera hopefully getting the control a little more manageable, and more development from Luzardo and Eury.

I love Tanner scott and what he did last year, but given his contract status and how cheap he is for next year, he is appealing to every single team in the league, and we can really capitalize on his value. the rays really dont pay relievers, they have completely mastered the idea of selling high, so i think it's likely he gets dealt. We have too many holes elsewhere, specifically in the lineup long term, not to capitalize on his value. We have Puk and Nardi behind him, and quality relievers are not hard to find. If his value is as high as we think it might be, you have to move him and try to get some long term lineup pieces. Signing guys isnt the answer with our payroll constraints, trading for guys with team control on the periphery of the big leagues is the answer.

I highly doubt it, but what if you throw them Cabrera or Max Meyer instead of rogers and try to go get Mayo and Ortiz. I highly doubt they do that, but that slingshots us forward with our long term lineup so much more than what we have right now. You slot Ortiz into SS, Mayo at 1b, Bell at DH, sign a C like Garver, and maybe you can compete this upcoming year and take a huge leap in 2025.

Yes. I’ve been saying this for awhile now - their lefty relievers are a major trade asset. One of the three good ones needs to go, and it’s probably Scott.

I think they should sign two SP in free agency and open themselves up to moving something like Cabrera. It seems like the best idea to sign into a strength and trade from it. Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, FA, and FA works with say Weathers and Max as the 6/7 SP. The offense gets fixed fast if Scott, Cabrera, and Rogers are shot out for effectively three bats. And you don’t need any FA SP in 25 with Sandy coming back. That’s how they should do it.

I’m not sure how Baltimore says no to Scott, Rogers, and Cabrera in 1 stop shopping for say Kjerstad, Ortiz, Basallo, and Norby. They’d have Aldy, Mountcastle, Westburg, Holliday, Gunnar, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, and Mayo, with other bats around and plenty of money for 2-3 huge studs. Baltimore will spend when contending.

[fish16]

gabe kapler now joins the front office as well as the assistant GM.

[Lee Stone]

Why would Trevor Rogers and E Cabrera be the guys you would trade? Rodgers is coming off significant injury and Cabrera is trying to clean up control issues. Their value is at the lowest for those reasons. Both are vital to the Marlins potential success in 2024 and beyond. Max Meyer is a no trade candidate for the same reasons.

Miami's SS and C issues could have been handled by "trading" Berry and Noble Meyer for Brooks Lee and Kyle Freel on their respective draft days.

[lou]

Why would Trevor Rogers and E Cabrera be the guys you would trade? Rodgers is coming off significant injury and Cabrera is trying to clean up control issues. Their value is at the lowest for those reasons. Both are vital to the Marlins potential success in 2024 and beyond. Max Meyer is a no trade candidate for the same reasons.

Miami's SS and C issues could have been handled by "trading" Berry and Noble Meyer for Brooks Lee and Kyle Freel on their respective draft days.

I think they would do fine in trades. I think many teams need pitching let alone club controlled pitching. Say what you will about Kim, but it’s the gold of the land.

Im with you on Lee (and McClain for Watson). If they had McClain and Lee right now, world of difference for this organization. It’s why she was effectively fired via a demotion.

[rmc523]

Why would Trevor Rogers and E Cabrera be the guys you would trade? Rodgers is coming off significant injury and Cabrera is trying to clean up control issues. Their value is at the lowest for those reasons. Both are vital to the Marlins potential success in 2024 and beyond. Max Meyer is a no trade candidate for the same reasons.

Miami's SS and C issues could have been handled by "trading" Berry and Noble Meyer for Brooks Lee and Kyle Freel on their respective draft days.

They are controlled SPs - sure, their value may not be at their top level, they're still valuable.

[Lee Stone]

Im not under rating him. Hes a fringe MLB player an offensive starved team opted to keep off their 40 man roster. There isn’t much more to say here. Max Muncy is a ludicrously different player profile.

Fringe MLB player? He has never even played a game at the major league level! Is Groshans better than Johnston? He's on the forty man.

[Nick]

We’re not unsure how. Johnston has 40-45 grade power and he’s not going to improve on that. End of story. That’s not going to play at 1B/DH absent an at minimum Ty France hit profile. If you want to pick some random late bloomer like Muncy and base it on low HR output in the minors, it’s someone like McIntosh who may figure it out. McIntosh is going to have larger power grades than Johnston so if he clicks, he could get real interesting fast like Muncy did.

Just want to mention here too I’d have protected him because they have space right now and there are more puzzling names on the 40 man right now, but I don’t think this is a big deal. Hes probably a bench bat and he’d be behind Dane and Burdick for that spot when there are injuries.

He fucking did improve on it. He hit 26 home runs last year. The fences aren't moved back when you get to the majors. 26 Home Runs in the majors is a 60 on the scale. Will he be able to match that against major league pitching, maybe not, maybe he adds even more power like Muncy did, we don't know.

At some point you have to deviate from the one off scouting report you read a year ago, and look at what he actually did on the field.