2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I can’t wait for Trevor Rogers to pitch 11 innings for the entire 2024 season.

Me too. Milwaukee or Baltimore or Toronto will be pissed!

[Lee Stone]

Add Barger to the Toronto deal there who can play LF and dabble in the IF. Marlins can get them pitching. They picked up Chad Greens option so they need to shed some money and Marlins can get them a slew of reasonable pitching to help them out.

We’re on the same page for the plan. Adames, Jansen, and a good FA Sp for a few years would be my ideal top 3 moves. Adames also gets a $150m extension there and Jansen a smaller $25-30m one. Luzardo, Arraez, and Eury all extended, and maybe Jazz and Scott too.

This team is good and call the parenthesis years of control if they did do those extensions which they should.

Jansen (4), Fortes (5) (Banfield 6)
Arraez (6)
Edwards (6) (Amaya 6, Cappe 6)
Adames (6), Berti (1)
Burger (5)
Barger (6), Hampson (1)
Jazz (3+)
Sanchez (4)
Bell (1), DLC (4)

Eury (8), Luzardo (5), Garrett (5), Cabrera (5), New Free Agent (4), Max (5), Weathers (5), DL - Sandy (4) (I’ll use Rogers here to get Adames, which is reasonable as Adames has 1 control year) (with Noble and White in pipeline. We’ll say Fulton going to Toronto)

Scott (3), Puk (3), Okert (3) (We’ll use Nardi in Tor deal too)
ton of club controlled right handers with 4-6 years of control but will likely need 1-2 high leverage ones. Sounds like deadline moves

I think we’d all be pumped and the team is literally set IMO. They can get Candelarios and Moores and Rosario’s at the deadline as needed.

$120m in 2024 and that includes the $25m in dead money to Sandy, Garcia, Barnes, and Cueto

The $10 million a year to Stanton isn't very lively money either. (Even though the Marlin payments don't kick in until 2026)

[rmc523]

MLBTR thinks Bellinger is going to get $250m and Montgomery $150m. I think those projections are absurd as Nimmo/Bryant got $70-90m less and Montgomery is not a $25m a year pitcher over 6 years. If they are right though, nothing in free agency is going to make sense for the Marlins until you get to 1-2 year guys like Rosario and Lorenzen which sounds a lot like Segura and Cueto.

If Bruce will spend money guys will come here. But frankly if those are the prices - and add in $100m to Castellanos which was too much - a lot of these guys are hard passes.

Eduardo they had around $90m in a new deal over 4+ years. I think that would make sense to open up a SP trade for young bats, etc. I think Bruce can afford two deals around that and maintain sub $120m payrolls. I’ll have to think about the prices for my own internal thoughts of what may be possible.

Weren't you all about trading for Rosario and giving him some big 100M extension last offseason?

[lou]

The $10 million a year to Stanton isn't very lively money either. (Even though the Marlin payments don't kick in until 2026)

Speaking of the Twins, they promoted a backup C to their 40 man so they may want to shed Vazquez money too (2/$20) as Jeffers is the guy now. I could easily live with Vazquez + Fortes next year while we see what happens to Fortes and Banfield. Frankly, Minnesota has a lot of good pieces beyond Royce to get some reasonably priced bats that won’t kill the SP/prospects. Vazquez and Polanco are legitimate upgrades to me and that gets $30.5m off the Twins books (over 2 years). Frankly, Okert, Stallings (probably a good backup for Jeffers for a year or until midseason), and another optionable arm (Maldonado?), could get that done with the Marlins absorbing all of that payroll which is huge for them. That saves them $25m which is a great FA SP for a year. Polanco and Vazquez had 2.5 WAR in 700 PA last year to mention. Stallings and Segura had -2.1 WAR in 600 PA. This all checks out if they get some relievers from the Marlins ultimately.

[lou]

Weren't you all about trading for Rosario and giving him some big 100M extension last offseason?

Sort of. More like $70m for 5 coming off back to back 2.5 and 2.7 WAR seasons at age 25/26, and then 2023 happened and his defense absolutely cratered at SS. Obviously that would have been a bad move, but I do think he will hit better than last year over the next few. If they can fix the SS defense, he’s a great reclamation project for them, but that ship probably sailed. If they go cheap Tim Anderson is probably a better idea as a higher floor fielder at SS.

At this point, I’d rather give 2B to Edwards and get a real SS. It’s Adames or Joey Ortiz or something like that in an ideal world.

[Todd]

I still don't see why you don't approach St. Louis for Herrera. He could lock down the catching position for years. Is too good to back up Contreras for 3 years. And St. Louis has 3 other C prospects in their top prospects.
And St. Louis needs pitching.

[lou]

I still don't see why you don't approach St. Louis for Herrera. He could lock down the catching position for years. Is too good to back up Contreras for 3 years. And St. Louis has 3 other C prospects in their top prospects.
And St. Louis needs pitching.

I mean sure? If I were them I’d trade Knizner and promote Herrera though. I don’t think he’s too good to backup Contreras. They can slow roll him for a few years for sure as a catcher. They can DH Contreras a bit and already talked about experimenting with him in the OF briefly. Knizner is in arbitration so save the money too. Not sure they can count on their prospects just yet but that Crooks guy looks interesting in a few years though.

I think they may shoot for something like this:

Contreras, Herrera
Goldschmidt, Baker
Gorman, Donovan
Winn
Arenado
Walker, Palacios
Edman
Nootbaar, Burleson

That lineup is awesome with how you can move around Donovan and Edman everywhere and Nootbaar can play CF too. Let’s Walker or Gorman DH a lot.

Knizner, Carlson, and O’Neill are the guys left off here. I do think those first two make a lot of sense for the Marlins as change of scenery guys if that’s the direction they choose.

[Todd]

Herrera is too good to be a backup. He is going to be a big trade piece.
They might move on from Knizner but it won't be for Herrera(who will likely be the centerpiece of a big trade).
Pedro Pages is 25 and Elite defensively and is likely the future #2 to Contreras.

[Namaste]

Our new PoBo was on 940 AM about 10 minutes ago

my takeaway:

Super stoked he’s in charge and not Kim but don’t expect Briuce to spend in 2024.

[fish16]

Herrera is too good to be a backup. He is going to be a big trade piece.
They might move on from Knizner but it won't be for Herrera(who will likely be the centerpiece of a big trade).
Pedro Pages is 25 and Elite defensively and is likely the future #2 to Contreras.

Catchers are rarely good right away. I would highly doubt he’s a starting caliber player next year. I wouldn’t mind getting Jansen for next year and then going after Herrera and O’Neill from the cardinals as a future catcher option and a power bat with a decent ceiling

[fish16]

Several names from the system elected free agency- Brian Miller, Jerar, Leblanc, Will Stewart and Alfaro both- Sixto the only one left from the JT trade,

[Todd]

Catchers are rarely good right away. I would highly doubt he’s a starting caliber player next year. I wouldn’t mind getting Jansen for next year and then going after Herrera and O’Neill from the cardinals as a future catcher option and a power bat with a decent ceiling

Jansen isn't a starting caliber player now.

He is, for his career, a worse hitter than Stallings was in Pittsburgh and is just meh defensively.

He is a one tool player and that tool is decent power but that doesn't play in LoanDepot.

He is an objectively shit player that is unexplainable that some here like so much.

He would be a massive waste of prospect capital for Stallings v 2.

[fish16]

Jansen isn't a starting caliber player now.

He is, for his career, a worse hitter than Stallings was in Pittsburgh and is just meh defensively.

He is a one tool player and that tool is decent power but that doesn't play in LoanDepot.

He is an objectively shit player that is unexplainable that some here like so much.

He would be a massive waste of prospect capital for Stallings v 2.

Might be dumber than your sandy take. Stallings never had an ops over .706. Jansen is above a .772 ops each of the last 3 years. He just hit 17 hr’s in half a years worth of games. His last 3 years were 1.4 war, 2.6 war, and 2.0 war and he didn’t eclipse 85 games in any of those seasons. He has graded positive defensively every single year. What a dumb take. His stats might take a dip coming here, but to call him an objectively shit player is beyond stupid, especially as you sit there and continue to tout a guy who you’ve never actually seen play based on minor league numbers his second trip through aaa

im also not sure what the fuck you are talking about that he is for his career a worse hitter than stallings was in Pittsburgh. That’s objectively just wrong.

he doesn’t have 1 tool. He has 3, which for a catcher is expected. He hits for power, is a good defender, and has a nice arm. Like every catcher, he is slow, and he doesn’t hit for average. That’s a very good starting catcher

go look at his 2022 baseball savant numbers

[lou]

Might be dumber than your sandy take. Stallings never had an ops over .706. Jansen is above a .772 ops each of the last 3 years. He just hit 17 hr’s in half a years worth of games. His last 3 years were 1.4 war, 2.6 war, and 2.0 war and he didn’t eclipse 85 games in any of those seasons. He has graded positive defensively every single year. What a dumb take. His stats might take a dip coming here, but to call him an objectively shit player is beyond stupid, especially as you sit there and continue to tout a guy who you’ve never actually seen play based on minor league numbers his second trip through aaa

im also not sure what the fuck you are talking about that he is for his career a worse hitter than stallings was in Pittsburgh. That’s objectively just wrong.

he doesn’t have 1 tool. He has 3, which for a catcher is expected. He hits for power, is a good defender, and has a nice arm. Like every catcher, he is slow, and he doesn’t hit for average. That’s a very good starting catcher

go look at his 2022 baseball savant numbers

Thank you for doing gods work here. I am still genuinely perplexed at Todd’s take here too

[lou]

Herrera is too good to be a backup. He is going to be a big trade piece.
They might move on from Knizner but it won't be for Herrera(who will likely be the centerpiece of a big trade).
Pedro Pages is 25 and Elite defensively and is likely the future #2 to Contreras.

Maybe you are right, but I see them hanging onto him as Contreras is 32 and they control him 6 years. I wouldn’t trade the second best catcher in the organization but that’s me. They can find 70 starts for Herrera easily with Contreras DH’ing once a week to keep his wear down. We shall see. Pages has many options and he can just be set at AAA. This is good depth for them TBH.