2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Breaking down the new manager's first lineup card:

Arraez leading off. Many have said that the Marlins now have a one-hole hitter in Arraez, who offers no impact as a baserunner. According to the matchup info, he has not faced the Mets ace previously. The right idea here is Berti, the stolen base champ, leading OBP guy this spring, a guy who has hit Scherzer at a .333 clip. Berti isn't even in the lineup.
Segura hits second. He actually belongs in the top third of the order as a good contact hitter. However, this is the right spot for Jazz, particularly if Berti leads off. Segura has had outstanding results against Scherzer.
Cooper in the three-hole?? He's 2-18 off Scherzer - good for a .111 BA. This was the right spot for Segura.
Jazz as the cleanup hitter? I'd see more logic in getting him to the plate sooner as the two. Arraez is the ideal choice here, with perhaps the best opportunity to have runner(s) aboard.

I'm too depressed to continue. I would just like to hear Skip's explanation for his choices ... which should make sense to any rabid Marlins fan.

[lou]

Breaking down the new manager's first lineup card:

Arraez leading off. Many have said that the Marlins now have a one-hole hitter in Arraez, who offers no impact as a baserunner. According to the matchup info, he has not faced the Mets ace previously. The right idea here is Berti, the stolen base champ, leading OBP guy this spring, a guy who has hit Scherzer at a .333 clip. Berti isn't even in the lineup.
Segura hits second. He actually belongs in the top third of the order as a good contact hitter. However, this is the right spot for Jazz, particularly if Berti leads off. Segura has had outstanding results against Scherzer.
Cooper in the three-hole?? He's 2-18 off Scherzer - good for a .111 BA. This was the right spot for Segura.
Jazz as the cleanup hitter? I'd see more logic in getting him to the plate sooner as the two. Arraez is the ideal choice here, with perhaps the best opportunity to have runner(s) aboard.

I'm too depressed to continue. I would just like to hear Skip's explanation for his choices ... which should make sense to any rabid Marlins fan.

Arraez was 11th in the league in OBP last year and 10th against right handers (min. 100). He is fine "clogging the bases."

I'd swap Jazz and Cooper and Garcia and DLC but that's it. They have a lefty tomorrow so Berti will be in tomorrow and we'll see if they slot him in front of Arraez which I assume they will.

We have a lot to complain about, this isn't one of them.

[Lee Stone]

On this team, Lou, you want Arraez' contact skill to result in runs, not table-setting.

[rmc523]

On this team, Lou, you want Arraez' contact skill to result in runs, not table-setting.

Conversely, you can't score runs if nobody's on base to drive in (ignoring solo homers of course).

[lou]

On this team, Lou, you want Arraez' contact skill to result in runs, not table-setting.

We want as many guys on base which results in more runs. You're getting too granular beyond that.

Arraez, Cooper, and Segura (in that order) projected for highest OBP on the team. Soler and Berti would be next for the record. Yes even ahead of Jazz. This is the right lineup. The top 3 are batting 1-2-3. But I would have the minor quibs in Jazz should be 3rd (against right handers at least as he would obviously scale up) and DLC 6th (because Garcia is Garcia and rather see if DLC is for real) but it is honestly kind of whatever.

None of this moves the needle. I find this as a good lineup because it isn't insulting. Don't be angry just to be angry. Be angry when Correa hits for the cycle today and makes an unassisted triple play.

[fish16]

you absolutely want arraez leading off unless berti is playing. he's one of the best leadoff/2 hitters in baseball

[fish16]

segura is also hitting 2nd today because he lights up the mets. For his career in 333 PA's, he has hit .328 with a .895 OPS. I think he will be 5th in the lineup most games with jazz moving to 2nd.

[fish16]

verlander is on the IL now and so he wont go for the mets on saturday. Turns out building around 2 pitchers with a combined age near 80 isnt starting out well. I think the mets and phillies will be done apart by injuries this year.

[lou]

segura is also hitting 2nd today because he lights up the mets. For his career in 333 PA's, he has hit .328 with a .895 OPS. I think he will be 5th in the lineup most games with jazz moving to 2nd.

I think this lineup suggests Arraez will be 1/2 depending on if Berti is starting that day, and Jazz remains permanently 4 as that still breaks up the lefties wherever Arraez lands.

Berti/Arraez
Arraez/Segura
Cooper
Jazz
Soler
Segura/pick an OF
Pick an OF
Who
Cares/Stallings

[emkayseven]

Offseason's over, it's game thread time!

[fish16]

arraez in 1 inning- good defensive play and single off scherzer. He will be a fan favorite by the end of april

[Namaste]

I’m at the game. Arraez is amazing . Love Cooper. Tanner Scott is fucking awful

[lou]

Lee and Nick inspired me to make a grand list of ammo for everyone to use. Here's the 2023 predictions so I can be wrong at every position group. Sorry a day late into the season for the sticklers.


C - Fortes establishes himself as a low-end starter/great backup, and one of Banfield, Mack, Hernandez, and McIntosh takes a medium or larger step forward so we start imagining those two as a pair for awhile. It might not happen until 25/26 though. The organization drafts another college catcher within first 4 picks in the draft. Stallings is a whatever defensive backup and is traded at the deadline.

1B - Cooper is Cooper, no prospect in system (notably Jerar) shows any longterm hope for 1B. Berry comes further below. Cooper is resigned similar to Rojas/Wendle for 1/$8+incentives next year to be the part time 1B and primary DH. Arraez shifts more permanently to 1B in 2024 against nearly all right handers.

2B - Arraez is good enough at 2B where his bat carries him to being one of the better guys in the league. He hits just above .300 with the surprise twist being a .450ish slugging percentage. A larger platoon split emerges where he is .875+ OPS vs RHP and sub .700 OPS vs lefties (he’s close to that already). He signs a longterm extension for 5+ years over $75m bucks, and he is moved to a 100 game 1B starter vs RHP (as that OPS plays against righties) in 2024 and he grabs moving forward 40+ more starts at 2B/LF/DH. Watson (turns into a 2B) and I. Lewis both take steps forward for some 2026 hope and Edwards doesn't do much.

SS - Entire organization is a bomb. Wendle is a fine backup but over matched. Berti doesn't look good defensively. Iglesias doesn't look good. We quickly realize why the Dodgers traded Amaya for Rojas. Cappe projects to 3B. Watson to 2B. Groshans to 3B. Edwards to 2B. Nasim is completely exposed higher levels but there is still defensive backup hope. Bust, bust, bust. Correa gets MVP votes and Andrus has a 2+ WAR in 130 games which would have been very useful. The silver lining is Segura, Berti, and and Groshans are viewed as backup SS options for a year to cover 20-30 games so this trajectory is to a longterm SS starter.

3B - Segura is Segura and defense is slightly shaky but he is overall a fine 2-3 WAR starter. He moves to 2B predominantly next year due to Arraez move. Groshans excels and is one of the better players in the system. He is minor league hitter of the year. Some power (15+ HR) shows up in AAA. Groshans is so good we start penciling him into 2024 as a 100+ strong side platoon starter with hope for more. Berti is a fine 2B/3B backup and wrecks havoc with a solid OBP and the base running retains. He’s viewed as the primary backup IF next year. Cappe has neither a good or bad year, which is overall a good thing for him. Berry can’t play defense and looks to be Cooper's 2025 replacement.

LF - DLC and Sanchez both "break out" with 1.7-2.3 WAR seasons, hit 45+ HR combined, and are fine as decent low end starters.

CF - Jazz defense is very shaky but shows improvement end of the year. Enough to keep him there 1 more year minimum because Arraez/Segura shift around in IF, but that starts looking iffy for 2025 with Segura being able to be let go and Jazz can move back to 2B then. That's also due to Sanchez being competent as a platoon CF so the organization needs a right handed CF who can hit lefties very badly in a year and a half. Jazz clears 55+ bombs/sb and takes a step forward against hitting lefties. He backs up the video game cover. No one in the minors looks good for CF, notably Mesa Jr. still shows no power and Mangum is a AAAA player.

RF - Garcia is better but still lost. Sanchez starts getting more time here by the summer. Burdick looks solid as a lefty masher in AAA but nothing more. Maybe he is the last hitter in 2024.

DH - Soler has a good year and if he isn’t traded, opts out as he can beat $9m in free agency. Berry looks like he's going to hit, but with medium not elite power and more of a contact/gap hitter approach. He will be forced to DH at the MLB level but maybe plays a little 1B as the backup. We view him as solid but uninspiring long term choice. Which sadly is an improvement from right now.

SP - Sandy takes a step back, but that's just a low 3.1 era over 200 innings so it's ultimately irrelevant. Just a mild down year. Luzardo and Cabrera take major steps forward and look outstanding. Cueto is fine. Rogers has a brilliant 16 starts and gets shelled 5+ times making his season line ugly but it's an eye of the beholder ugly. Eury is a mild disappointment in showing lower control at higher levels for a guy that tall, but overall maintains as a top 40 prospect because he is still just that young. He doesn't make the MLB team in 2023. They get adequate replacement starts out of Garrett, Castano, and Smeltzer. Fulton looks good enough to be a 4 in a few years but nothing more. No SP depth develops where it's smart to trade any for a bat. They have just enough and that’s that.

RHP RP - Is a total disaster. Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Nance, and Brazoban are literally whatever. They trade off MLB parts at the deadline for young righty relievers and we all are praying Meyer, Bender, Sixto (who stays a little healthy), Enright, and tradeline trade dumps can be core relievers next year. Meyer and Sixto do in fact become relievers as there is still high confidence with Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Eury, and Fulton. Plus Cueto has his option for next year or is replaced with someone similar.

LHP RP - Totally outstanding. Puk turns into "the closer" or a super high end leverage guy. Garrett converts and the slider plays up in burst as a 90-100 IP 2 inning guy. Eder also ends up in the bullpen second half the year and kills people. He too becomes a 2-3 inning guy and projects for 100+ innings as a bulk reliever non starter over 45 appearances. He's the Marlins Brock Burke and we hope Meyer is the righty version quickly next year. Nardi or Simpson or Reynolds looks like a good 3rd LHP reliever on top of that and we envision a long term 4 RHP / 4 LHP bullpen. Scott and Okert are both solid enough and moved in the summer for dart throw righty relievers.

Wins - 77 (but would be higher if they didn't unload team at deadline)

Attendance - Very bad

Confidence moving forward - A tick up on the field as the SP looks better and they build on their potential innings output with Eury coming. The mid tier players (Fortes, Berti, Groshans, DLC, Sanchez, Burdick, Berry, Puk, Garrett) look like they will cheaply hold spots for years around Jazz and Arraez. The largest criticism is still how can one compete at this payroll.

FA next year they sign Rosario for $70-90m as the best and perhaps only real SS option, give Cooper the extension, sign an uninspiring C platoon partner and RHP reliever, and get uninspiring cheap 1 year veteran options similar to Yuli/Iglesias to fight for bench/relief spots. We are all banging our head against the wall why they cannot get a third star bat (which is not Rosario even if he is close to a 3 WAR guy) and are just betting again at another SP step forward, but this time they do have Eury, Meyer, Bender, and Fulton coming for real and "all" the pitchers are now MLB ready. I am hoping I am wrong here and this is where Cappe/Watson/Miller can turn into a strong package to move for presumably a major CF upgrade allowing Jazz to get back to 2B and everyone shuffles to obvious spots from there.

Fortes, Whoever
Arraez, Cooper
Segura
Rosario
Groshans, Berti
DLC, Cheap Vet/Burdick
Jazz
Sanchez, Garcia

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Cueto/Similar stop gap (Eury and Fulton mid season)
TBD, Deadline trade guys/Chargois/Sixto/Enright/Nance (Meyer and Bender in a few months when arms built up)
Puk, Garrett, Eder, Nardi/Simpson


We shall see. Basically I'm saying, they are treading water until Bruce spends. The best 2024 FA will be SP, so the obvious move would be to sign one, and then that opens up SP trades. Similar to what they did with Cueto this year, etc.


Here's to minimum frustration this year!

[Lee Stone]

Lee notice how this guy is almost completely negative and still thinks we'll win 72 games?

Son of a gun, a scout that I largely agree with. However, if he applied his own analysis to the club, he'd be sitting on 60-102 like I am. We are going to be seeing performances like Tanner Scott just recorded ... over and over.

[Todd]

If a scout agreed with you they wouldn't be a scout. You are a moron.