2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

This is the defensive alignment I have been waiting for - https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/sta...28754312585217

Behold, the two man lefty shift outfield. "Fuck them rules"


What happens here also.... catcher runs to third, pitcher runs home, and third basemen runs straight back the second he is allowed to move?

[lou]

Sorry I preferred a rising Pablo Lopez to a declining Cueto. Did like the Amaya pick up for Rojas and Puk for Bleday.

Sorry I preferred an all around ball player like Brooks Lee for a never-gonna-be like Jacob Berry.

Am especially anxious to see what Jake Eder does.

You don't get credit for this when literally no one wanted Berry and wanted a position player.


And it's not Pablo vs Cueto, it's Pablo vs Arraez. Cueto is going to be fine even if that's just a #5 innings eater. That's what they need. They have 5 other kid SP plus Eder maybe this summer.

[Lee Stone]

Some kind of record in Jupiter this afternoon: Each of first five Marlin pitchers allowed three runs!

[fish16]

Super early look at spring training as a whole, and the starting bats look fairly solid. Arraez is as advertised with the hits and lack of walks. Garcia has had a really solid start and just flatly looks in much better shape. Jazz is back with the bat, we just have to hope he can find his way with the glove before opening day. I've only seem him a few games so i cant say how he's looked in the last few games. Soler looks like the soler we expected last year in the super short sample. Good to see him playing the field too. He isnt a good defender, but it speaks to how healthy he is compared to last year with his back injury. Berti is going to get a ton of playing time, and i think the new rule changes with the bigger bags make him a hugely productive player. He's gonna steal a lot of bags. When he's in the lineup he should be hitting first or 2nd and stealing a ton of bags. Burdick and Groshans also solid thus far. Again, its very few games but some positive signs early with the bats in key spots.

For the rotation, Sandy looked like Sandy. As long as he's healthy he's one of if not the best pitcher in baseball. Rogers has been super encouraging. 5 scoreless innings over 2 starts, 6 k's, no walks, and no runs. Couldnt have asked for a better start. IF he's back to 2021 early form, the rotation becomes even more dynamic. Eury clearly will need a few more months in the minors. He was going to the minors regardless so no concerns there. The stuff is clearly dynamic though.

The bullpen has been fairly horrific super early. Still havent seen Puk, but Floro has had a rough start, and the fringe bullpen arms that we have talked about have not impressed whatsoever. Soriano, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Smeltzer, Nardi, Reynolds, Simpson have not shown anything thus far. I still think they need 1 more reliable pen arm, but again, it's super early, so they have plenty of time to get ready for opening day and figure it out.

[lou]

Super early look at spring training as a whole, and the starting bats look fairly solid. Arraez is as advertised with the hits and lack of walks. Garcia has had a really solid start and just flatly looks in much better shape. Jazz is back with the bat, we just have to hope he can find his way with the glove before opening day. I've only seem him a few games so i cant say how he's looked in the last few games. Soler looks like the soler we expected last year in the super short sample. Good to see him playing the field too. He isnt a good defender, but it speaks to how healthy he is compared to last year with his back injury. Berti is going to get a ton of playing time, and i think the new rule changes with the bigger bags make him a hugely productive player. He's gonna steal a lot of bags. When he's in the lineup he should be hitting first or 2nd and stealing a ton of bags. Burdick and Groshans also solid thus far. Again, its very few games but some positive signs early with the bats in key spots.

For the rotation, Sandy looked like Sandy. As long as he's healthy he's one of if not the best pitcher in baseball. Rogers has been super encouraging. 5 scoreless innings over 2 starts, 6 k's, no walks, and no runs. Couldnt have asked for a better start. IF he's back to 2021 early form, the rotation becomes even more dynamic. Eury clearly will need a few more months in the minors. He was going to the minors regardless so no concerns there. The stuff is clearly dynamic though.

The bullpen has been fairly horrific super early. Still havent seen Puk, but Floro has had a rough start, and the fringe bullpen arms that we have talked about have not impressed whatsoever. Soriano, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Smeltzer, Nardi, Reynolds, Simpson have not shown anything thus far. I still think they need 1 more reliable pen arm, but again, it's super early, so they have plenty of time to get ready for opening day and figure it out.

Missed something - Luzardo is throwing harder with higher spin rates. There was a blurb on rotoworld about it (can't link direct - https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseba...category=news_

I believe I saw another article somewhere it was 1.5+ MPH harder. I think we'll know in another start or two because SSS, but if he is throwing 1+ MPH harder and is now truly fully healthy, he might be great quickly.

[fish16]

Missed something - Luzardo is throwing harder with higher spin rates. There was a blurb on rotoworld about it (can't link direct - https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseba...category=news_

I believe I saw another article somewhere it was 1.5+ MPH harder. I think we'll know in another start or two because SSS, but if he is throwing 1+ MPH harder and is now truly fully healthy, he might be great quickly.

That's super encouraging. He was borderline great last year, he just didnt stay healthy the whole year, but he showed flashes early before his injury (although he blew up the 3rd time threw the order a few times if i recall correctly) and then when he came back he took off. If he's throwing even harder, it makes that marte trade look even better. It's just a shame they couldnt resign him and pull of an even better trade by getting him back, but that was a tremendous trade. Hopefully we look back at the Puk trade similarly.

Just looking through Luzardo's game logs- he got blown up very few times last year. He wasnt flat out dominant every start, but there was a very healthy floor most games even if he wasnt going 7 or 8. After april when they were being cautious with him, he went at least 6 innings in all but 4 of his 14 starts. In those 14 starts, he gave up more than 3 ER just 3 times, 1 of them being the game where he got hurt, which probably played a lot into him struggling that game. Between Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, eventually Eury, and hopefully rogers is back to 2021 rogers, that's a ton of high end talent in 1 rotation. That's not even taking into consideration guys who might get to that level in the future like Sixto, Meyer, Eder, Fulton.

[lou]

That's super encouraging. He was borderline great last year, he just didnt stay healthy the whole year, but he showed flashes early before his injury (although he blew up the 3rd time threw the order a few times if i recall correctly) and then when he came back he took off. If he's throwing even harder, it makes that marte trade look even better. It's just a shame they couldnt resign him and pull of an even better trade by getting him back, but that was a tremendous trade. Hopefully we look back at the Puk trade similarly.

Just looking through Luzardo's game logs- he got blown up very few times last year. He wasnt flat out dominant every start, but there was a very healthy floor most games even if he wasnt going 7 or 8. After april when they were being cautious with him, he went at least 6 innings in all but 4 of his 14 starts. In those 14 starts, he gave up more than 3 ER just 3 times, 1 of them being the game where he got hurt, which probably played a lot into him struggling that game. Between Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, eventually Eury, and hopefully rogers is back to 2021 rogers, that's a ton of high end talent in 1 rotation. That's not even taking into consideration guys who might get to that level in the future like Sixto, Meyer, Eder, Fulton.

Luzardo has been very good his last 25 starts. He should be viewed as a 145-150 IP pitcher. He's thrown 124 and 111 IP back to back so I don't think you want to scale him more than that. I think he's going to be very good.

I foresee them skipping 5 starts for him so he's more of a 26 start/150 IP guy versus 32/150 IP and managing innings. This is the whole they have 6 SP and they can steal 5 starts off Luzardo, Rogers, Cueto, and Cabrera and get Garrett 20+ easily (in an everyone is healthy scenario). That's basically Garrett in the bullpen until mid-May and then they shift to a 6 man rotation 7 weeks into the season or so and start getting those other 4 a game off every 4 weeks, etc. It'll work out.

It's still where are the final 2 bat upgrades coming for. The pitching is going to be good enough even with some bullpen issues (Floro velocity is down also I saw so that's not great unless it's just early. Sulser was down early 2022 and we saw what happened with him).

[fish16]

those 6 man rotations never work. IT will be the same thing, but i think come mid season or even a little before, just start skipping starts occasionally to keep guys healthy and limit innings without having to shut them down at the end of the year. rogers and Sandy and cueto can go every 5th day, and cabrera and luzardo will get a start skipped to keep them fresh over the course of the year. Rogers too can theoretically get skipped a few times to limit the innings. that gives more than enough starts to Garrett over the course of the year while keeping those innings down for the other guys. When you get into the 6 man, you start taking sandy off of his every 5th day routine. It functions the same way, but just start skipping starts every few times for luzardo and cabrera and rogers. Luzardo pitched 110 last year between the majors and minors and missed 2 full months. I think you can push him to 150-170 if he stays healthy. He's 25, not 22. i prefer to evaluate it as the season goes on then set innings limits in stone at the beginning of the season when you have no idea how they will be fairing come august. Hard innings limits have never been something i like.

If he can stay healthy and still stay effective, why limit him later in the year? Obviously you dont want to push him too hard, but if he's still feeling good and pitching well, let him build his innings. If he can get to 170 this year, that puts 200 next year in play as an every 5th day guy with no limitations.

Cabrera same thing. He pitched 110 innings last year. Id be slightly more cautious with him because of his history staying healthy with numerous injuries, but if they are healthy and rolling, let them keep pitching. Hard innings limits for something that will come up 6 months down the line just seems misguided to me. Play it by ear as the season goes along. You cant predict what each guy is capable of until you see them do it at the time. Then you evaluate and make determinations then. I'm not saying let them throw like Sandy every time out, but hard innings limits in March have always struck me as foolish.

[lou]

those 6 man rotations never work. IT will be the same thing, but i think come mid season or even a little before, just start skipping starts occasionally to keep guys healthy and limit innings without having to shut them down at the end of the year. rogers and Sandy and cueto can go every 5th day, and cabrera and luzardo will get a start skipped to keep them fresh over the course of the year. Rogers too can theoretically get skipped a few times to limit the innings. that gives more than enough starts to Garrett over the course of the year while keeping those innings down for the other guys. When you get into the 6 man, you start taking sandy off of his every 5th day routine. It functions the same way, but just start skipping starts every few times for luzardo and cabrera and rogers. Luzardo pitched 110 last year between the majors and minors and missed 2 full months. I think you can push him to 150-170 if he stays healthy. He's 25, not 22. i prefer to evaluate it as the season goes on then set innings limits in stone at the beginning of the season when you have no idea how they will be fairing come august. Hard innings limits have never been something i like.

If he can stay healthy and still stay effective, why limit him later in the year? Obviously you dont want to push him too hard, but if he's still feeling good and pitching well, let him build his innings. If he can get to 170 this year, that puts 200 next year in play as an every 5th day guy with no limitations.

Cabrera same thing. He pitched 110 innings last year. Id be slightly more cautious with him because of his history staying healthy with numerous injuries, but if they are healthy and rolling, let them keep pitching. Hard innings limits for something that will come up 6 months down the line just seems misguided to me. Play it by ear as the season goes along. You cant predict what each guy is capable of until you see them do it at the time. Then you evaluate and make determinations then. I'm not saying let them throw like Sandy every time out, but hard innings limits in March have always struck me as foolish.

*Sandy never goes on 6 man rotation, and they just do it with the other 4. They can easily manage this skipping the other 5 guys every 4-5 weeks "1" time

Sandy - 33 (as many IP as he throws without injury risk)
Cueto - 27 (as many IP as he throws without injury risk)
Luzardo - 26 (150 IP max)
Rogers - 26 (150 IP max)
Cabrera - 25 (130 IP max)
Garrett - 25 (150 IP max)

You could also just make Cabrera/Garrett a combo 5th SP here too (which is my preferred idea). I think that is a perfect workload balance innings wise. If they did this and they stayed healthy, the bullpen/Eury/Eder/Sixto are looking at roughly 500 innings. Barnes, Puk, Floro, Chargois, Scott, and Okert could easily be 400 of those. Meaning they are in pretty good shape for having 100+ garbage innings + injury replacements left. Which is good set up.


Luzardo throwing 170 innings absent playoffs is a big mistake. They need to scale their arms up. The risk of injury greatly grows throwing 30+ innings on the previous year for these under 26 guys. Of course, if he has a 2 ERA and a .9 whip and these are low stress innings that's one thing, but absent that they need to be very careful with all of them. Remember, Luzardo and Garrett have high volatile pitch mixes so they have extra stress. But as mentioned, maybe Luzardo is becoming more changeup dependent which would be GREAT. Rogers and Cabrera should have more normal wear and tear. I do think they were a bit careless with Pablo last year but not our problem thankfully.


Still need 2 bats

[fish16]

sandy on the hill for 3 innings today against the rays in the trop. Didnt even realize their spring training stadium got so damaged by ian that they are playing their spring in st pete. Most of the lineup regulars didnt make the trip.

[rmc523]

sandy on the hill for 3 innings today against the rays in the trop. Didnt even realize their spring training stadium got so damaged by ian that they are playing their spring in st pete. Most of the lineup regulars didnt make the trip.

I had a coworker drive to the west coast for a project we're working on recently, and he said things over there are still completely destroyed.

[Namaste]

Rays get a lucky double that hit off a base and it’s followed up by a 3 run HR off of Simpson. Let’s get most of our shitty luck out of the way now.

[fish16]

Rays get a lucky double that hit off a base and it’s followed up by a 3 run HR off of Simpson. Let’s get most of our shitty luck out of the way now.

i dont see anything out of the guys they added to the 40 man that are competing for that last bullpen spot. I can see the appeal of reynolds as a converted hitter with potential, but as far as Simpson, Nardi, and Soriano, i just dont see it. Feels like they have gotten lit up every time they come in.

[fish16]

I had a coworker drive to the west coast for a project we're working on recently, and he said things over there are still completely destroyed.

thats not surprising. I went on a vacation to a place called boca grande a few years back and i know that place got really damaged and i remember driving over there that the rays stadium was really close to the coast. Super sad, that area has gotten torched several times in a very short period of time, including charley that really fucked up that entire region. We've gotten incredibly lucky way too many times in a row on the southeast coast tri county area for about 15-20 years in a row.

[fish16]

the box score has jesus luzardo getting time as a pinch runner today. that cant be right, right? that would seem like an incredibly foolish thing to do. I gotta think that's a typo. Not sure why hed even make the trip there.