2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

i wouldnt count it as a failure as wendle will be passable, but it sure as hell is a missed opportunity. I think theyve had a really good offseason and this team should be much better, but they missed the opportunity to take it from a good offseason to an amazing one.

[sports24/7]

I actually don’t know that I blame them for not signing one of the SS this off-season. Those deals were just insane, and Miami was never going to make commitments that long. I suppose the 7 year Swanson deal would have been doable, but would you have felt good about paying him $177M betting that he’s going to consistently be what he was last year? The Correa deal in a vacuum is a deal Miami should have tried to match, but we’re talking about a guy who had deals fall apart with two separate teams due to his medicals. Giving that guy a big deal, even at more reasonable terms than some of the other deals that were signed, is very risky, and I’m not sure the Marlins can afford for that to go bad.

Where I blame them is not making a trade for a SS. Unless Amaya is a much better hitter, or Groshans is a much better fielder than most people think they’ll be, the Marlins don’t really have a viable everyday SS on their roster, or close in the minors.

[lou]

It's splitting hairs, but it's the same exact failure. They could've moved Jazz to CF last season just as easily.

I accept.

At least we don't have 3 DH's this year, but there is always time to sign Gurriel still.

[lou]

I actually don’t know that I blame them for not signing one of the SS this off-season. Those deals were just insane, and Miami was never going to make commitments that long. I suppose the 7 year Swanson deal would have been doable, but would you have felt good about paying him $177M betting that he’s going to consistently be what he was last year? The Correa deal in a vacuum is a deal Miami should have tried to match, but we’re talking about a guy who had deals fall apart with two separate teams due to his medicals. Giving that guy a big deal, even at more reasonable terms than some of the other deals that were signed, is very risky, and I’m not sure the Marlins can afford for that to go bad.

Where I blame them is not making a trade for a SS. Unless Amaya is a much better hitter, or Groshans is a much better fielder than most people think they’ll be, the Marlins don’t really have a viable everyday SS on their roster, or close in the minors.

I think you are being too kind. Ignore the money of those deals for a second:


Fortes - going to be cheap for 5 years + Mack and other real hope on the farm

Berry - cheap forever absent an Alonso explosion and then who cares he's amazing

Arraez - They can extend him for $70m right now. So 1 medium expensive.

SS

Segura - cheap for 2/3 years, then Groshans/Edwards are maybes, and Cappe is a top 100 prospect. Cheap forever

DLC/Sanchez - cheap forever. They will not rock arbitration

Jazz - They can extend him for $70m right now if he'd take it, but I think he bets on himself and this is $130m next year. So 1 very expensive.

Garcia - Medium Expensive

Soler + likely future 1 year DH types as every OF won't work out - Medium expenses

Sandy - His deal is amazing, but he starts getting pricy at the end. Very expensive

Luzardo - Barely medium expensive through arbitration unless he drops a Dylan Cease year then who cares

Rogers - Barely medium expensive through arbitration unless he drops a 2021 Rogers year then who cares

The rest of the entire pitching staff and bullpen - CLUB CONTROLLED FOREVER


Very Expensive - Sandy and Jazz
Medium Expensive - Arraez Garcia, likely Luzardo, maybe Rogers, likely a 1B/DH type after Soler
Cheap - Everything else, based on either low years on deals (Cueto, Segura) or control years (See .168 servive time days).

In 2025, I can see this

Fortes (S2), Banfield/Internal CC catcher (CC)
Berry (CC)
Arraez (Arb3)
______, Amaya (CC)
Segura (Option), Groshans (CC)
DLC (Arb1), Sanchez (Arb1)
Jazz (Arb2)
Garcia (Final year)
_______

Sandy (Jump in salary), Eury (CC), Luzardo(Arb3-S2), Cabrera (S2), Rogers (Arb2)
Meyer (CC), Bender (CC), Enright (CC), Sixto (CC)
Puk (Arb2), Eder (CC), Fulton (CC), Nardi/Simpson (CC)

So Sandy is $17.3, Arraez will be around $11, Jazz maybe $11 too (assume greatness), Garcia $12, Segura $10.... so call it $60m for these 5 guys. Seems like a lot.

Arbitration, Fortes will make nothing ($2.5), DLC and Sanchez maybe the same, Luzardo may be pricy, call him another $10m and Rogers will trail him so maybe $6m there... Puk is a reliever, $2.5m tops.... maybe Cabrera is good. This is probably $30m tops.

CC guys won't top $8.5m here.

So they need a SS and DH and are at $98m.... and Garret has been traded at minimum here, and if say Cappe is ready, $10m in Segura goes POOF quickly, and they could trade another of Luzardo/Rogers to lower payroll again. And this is an across the board overestimation, so shave another $5m here. Basically, they could have another CC guy for a pitcher for 1B/OF/DH to fill that slot and have money to spend for a SS.


I really call bullshit on Bruce not spending $25m on one of these SS. Minor tweaking of trading really good pitchers (Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera/Garret/Puk) hitting arbitration and not picking up the Segura options fits this in sub-$100m, as those guys would bring back others to fill out the team.


It was the perfect storm and they blew it.






Trading for Peraza would have been ideal, but that's not going to happen. They could sign Rosario here next offseason, choose to jettison Segura and 2 of Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera/Garrett to fill remaining holes, and bank on they have developed enough pitching to survive that. Which TBH they probably can do. But Rosario is still not THEE missing piece here - they'd have to land that final big bat in a SP trade. Basically, they only have themselves to blame. Hopefully I have egg on my face and Groshans is awesome. I'd love being wrong here.

[Nick]

Rizzo starting at 1st base for us in the 1st spring game. Just to fuck with us.

[sports24/7]

I think you are being too kind. Ignore the money of those deals for a second:


Fortes - going to be cheap for 5 years + Mack and other real hope on the farm

Berry - cheap forever absent an Alonso explosion and then who cares he's amazing

Arraez - They can extend him for $70m right now. So 1 medium expensive.

SS

Segura - cheap for 2/3 years, then Groshans/Edwards are maybes, and Cappe is a top 100 prospect. Cheap forever

DLC/Sanchez - cheap forever. They will not rock arbitration

Jazz - They can extend him for $70m right now if he'd take it, but I think he bets on himself and this is $130m next year. So 1 very expensive.

Garcia - Medium Expensive

Soler + likely future 1 year DH types as every OF won't work out - Medium expenses

Sandy - His deal is amazing, but he starts getting pricy at the end. Very expensive

Luzardo - Barely medium expensive through arbitration unless he drops a Dylan Cease year then who cares

Rogers - Barely medium expensive through arbitration unless he drops a 2021 Rogers year then who cares

The rest of the entire pitching staff and bullpen - CLUB CONTROLLED FOREVER


Very Expensive - Sandy and Jazz
Medium Expensive - Arraez Garcia, likely Luzardo, maybe Rogers, likely a 1B/DH type after Soler
Cheap - Everything else, based on either low years on deals (Cueto, Segura) or control years (See .168 servive time days).

In 2025, I can see this

Fortes (S2), Banfield/Internal CC catcher (CC)
Berry (CC)
Arraez (Arb3)
______, Amaya (CC)
Segura (Option), Groshans (CC)
DLC (Arb1), Sanchez (Arb1)
Jazz (Arb2)
Garcia (Final year)
_______

Sandy (Jump in salary), Eury (CC), Luzardo(Arb3-S2), Cabrera (S2), Rogers (Arb2)
Meyer (CC), Bender (CC), Enright (CC), Sixto (CC)
Puk (Arb2), Eder (CC), Fulton (CC), Nardi/Simpson (CC)

So Sandy is $17.3, Arraez will be around $11, Jazz maybe $11 too (assume greatness), Garcia $12, Segura $10.... so call it $60m for these 5 guys. Seems like a lot.

Arbitration, Fortes will make nothing ($2.5), DLC and Sanchez maybe the same, Luzardo may be pricy, call him another $10m and Rogers will trail him so maybe $6m there... Puk is a reliever, $2.5m tops.... maybe Cabrera is good. This is probably $30m tops.

CC guys won't top $8.5m here.

So they need a SS and DH and are at $98m.... and Garret has been traded at minimum here, and if say Cappe is ready, $10m in Segura goes POOF quickly, and they could trade another of Luzardo/Rogers to lower payroll again. And this is an across the board overestimation, so shave another $5m here. Basically, they could have another CC guy for a pitcher for 1B/OF/DH to fill that slot and have money to spend for a SS.


I really call bullshit on Bruce not spending $25m on one of these SS. Minor tweaking of trading really good pitchers (Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera/Garret/Puk) hitting arbitration and not picking up the Segura options fits this in sub-$100m, as those guys would bring back others to fill out the team.


It was the perfect storm and they blew it.






Trading for Peraza would have been ideal, but that's not going to happen. They could sign Rosario here next offseason, choose to jettison Segura and 2 of Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera/Garrett to fill remaining holes, and bank on they have developed enough pitching to survive that. Which TBH they probably can do. But Rosario is still not THEE missing piece here - they'd have to land that final big bat in a SP trade. Basically, they only have themselves to blame. Hopefully I have egg on my face and Groshans is awesome. I'd love being wrong here.

Maybe I am, but for me it’s more the length of the deals than the AAV. If things go bad, you can’t have that albatross around your necks in this market. Spending that amount, and still having a bad team hamstrings you to where it’s hard to spend much more to turn things around. Look at what happened with Stanton. They had to give him away following an MVP caliber season at 27 just to get rid of his contract. Imagine what that would be for a guy in his 30s playing badly.

I think that’s never realistically going to be an option for Miami, unfortunately. The path for them is developing their own guys, and trading for guys with control, and signing them to deals like Atlanta does. Maybe if they surprise, and have a good season, that could get ownership to get off of their asses and spend some money. But I’m not holding my breath.

[Namaste]

I can tell you the exact day he will miraculously be healthy and ready - 119 service days into the season

Exactly. He’s high risk no doubt but also very high ceiling.

[fish16]

Rare positive national article on the marlins in the New York Times by Tyler kepner today. I’m on my phone so I can’t post it but says we might be the team best positioned to take advantage of the new rules and surprise this year

[fish16]

The game is on tv today. Cueto going, eury afterwards, regulars playing, jazz in cf

[Nick]

First hit to Jazz and he looks very bad. It’ll be a work in progress I’m sure.

[Nick]

Oof, the defense could be an issue. That was pathetic by Arraez.

[fish16]

If you can give up 5 runs in an inning without being hit very hard very often cueto did it. Other than the home run those were all bloopers or grounders.

jazz looked terrible in center on his only opportunity. Read a pretty easy catch wrong off the bat and it dropped for a hit

[Erick]

I like the Jazz in CF experiment regardless, but if that’s what Arraez looks like at 2B, I wonder if they’ll make an adjustment at some point during Spring Training.

I was warming up to the idea because the metrics last year seem to indicate he’s average, but he actually looks quite bad. I would very much prefer him to play 1B/DH and put Segura back at 2B where he’s pretty good.

I wish Garrett Cooper wasn’t on this team and we could trade him for a guy who plays another position.

[Erick]

If you can give up 5 runs in an inning without being hit very hard very often cueto did it. Other than the home run those were all bloopers or grounders.

jazz looked terrible in center on his only opportunity. Read a pretty easy catch wrong off the bat and it dropped for a hit

While this is true, I’m not sure how Cueto gets outs with the stuff he’s showing. 88-89 mph and a lot of junk. I’m sure the velocity will spike up an extra couple mph but he’s probably best seen as our innings eating #5, especially with this defense behind him.

[Nick]

So BSN just showed 100 mph for Eury. Holy cow.