2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

And also, we aren’t acquiring Reynolds so we shouldn’t discuss that anymore.

[Nick]

79 wins as currently constructed. That's what I foresee.

[lou]

And also, we aren’t acquiring Reynolds so we shouldn’t discuss that anymore.

I actually kind of feel this is when it's going to happen if the Pirates make a move. Get him in for spring training, see if he'll sign longterm, other teams have 2-3 weeks to evaluate their players (cough see DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Jerar/Mangum references above, as well as is Cruz a LF? Is Endy Rodriguez a LF? Do the Pirates have any starters?), and realism/desperation sets in. I could see it, but we'll see.

[lou]

79 wins as currently constructed. That's what I foresee.

I'm with you. And they'll have to trade to improve the bats as even assuming they would spend in FA, the best FAs for them next year are (no order) Ohtani (yea right), Rosario, Bader, Bellinger, M. Chapman.... and then signing pitching to trade pitching - Flaherty, Giolito, Mahle, Montas, Nola, Urias, etc. Rosario/Bader/Bellinger/Chapman are probably a good "second" bat upgrade to get, but they need that first larger one somewhere. I really hope Kim flipped over a desk in Bruce's face about how stupid it is to not sign one of these SS/Nimmo this offseason.

[fish16]

Arraez and Jazz really have no impact on DLC and Sanchez right now. Jazz replaces Bleday on the roster and Arraez replaces Rojas, with players shuffling around (and to mention Segura replaced Anderson). Just think about this, best case scenario is Jazz/Garcia/Soler each start 140ish games. That's 225 OF starts to go. DLC/Sanchez/Berti are effectively going to get 100% of them absent another move and injury. This is going to be 950-1,000 PA appearances. This is a lot of PA to move around. These guys are going to have long looks.

And yes, Reynolds should be 600 of those PA, DLC or Sanchez 350+ of them, and Berti finding 80+ starts in the IF somewhere and not considered a real OF option.

This is going to work itself out I think. It won't be spectacular, but they have the bodies in the OF/1B/DH.

arraez absolutely has an impact on DLCs at bats. It was the equivalent of adding a star CF essentially in the form of jazz moving to CF full time and playing there every day. They were almost assuredly never going to keep Sanchez AND Bleday on the roster because Berti/Cooper/Soler would have been options in an OF spot, and even if they were, none of those guys were playing every day like Jazz will be in CF. Sanchez and Bleday were redundant, and they would have opted for one of them getting everyday ab's in AAA, likely Bleday. there were say 1200 ab's to split between cf and LF, now with jazz playing every day that goes down to say 750 factoring in fulltime ab's in LF and off days for Jazz. sanchez is likely the guy who plays a majority of those against RHP's and berti probably playing a decent amount of times in CF as jazz replacement, all though not all the time because DLC can also hit righties. Right now he's going to get exactly as many ab's as he probably should, somewhere around 300 depending on injuries of course.

I hope they give Sanchez more opportunities than DLC. Time will tell.

[fish16]

If we are sellers at the deadline we’ll win 72-74

If we are buyers we can be in the WC conversation with 85-87 wins.

We won’t be nearly as bad in 1-run games. Not everything will go right. But there will be 1-run game regression to the mean.

agreed 72-74 is a worst case scenario with injuries and the usual not giving a fuck the last 2 months of the season. Agreed on the ceiling.

But i dont think it's regression to the mean so much as just improving the bullpen and lineup. They were bad in 1 run games last year, and maybe a small amount of that is due to luck, but of course they were going to be terrible in 1 run games with a really bad back end of the bullpen and a terrible lineup. They should improve there not because of luck, but because of talent. The lineup is still not good, but it should be a good deal of improvement, and barnes and Puk are not minor additions in the back end of the pen, plus potential for sixto at some point and maybe they limit eury's innings toward the end of the year by putting him in the pen for some major league experience before going to the rotation to start next year.

[fish16]

I'm with you. And they'll have to trade to improve the bats as even assuming they would spend in FA, the best FAs for them next year are (no order) Ohtani (yea right), Rosario, Bader, Bellinger, M. Chapman.... and then signing pitching to trade pitching - Flaherty, Giolito, Mahle, Montas, Nola, Urias, etc. Rosario/Bader/Bellinger/Chapman are probably a good "second" bat upgrade to get, but they need that first larger one somewhere. I really hope Kim flipped over a desk in Bruce's face about how stupid it is to not sign one of these SS/Nimmo this offseason.

Nimmo im fine with, i dont think he's worth the amount of years well into his 30s for a team with the salary constraints like us. It's really just Correa for me as i dont think turner would have ever signed here regardless of the amount of money. The opportunity to get Correa for a little cheaper after his physical issues is just such a blown opportunity to spend money intelligently. This team with Correa is a playoff team, and our bench would be really solid too in that situation. You're talking about every day having the following options off the bench: Wendle, DLC/Sanchez, Berti, and Stallings. That's a really solid bench with versatility and different skill sets to use late in games depending on the situation.

[Nick]

BUT HOW COULD WE COMPETE WITH THAT MINNESOTA TWINS MONEY!?!?!?

[fish16]

BUT HOW COULD WE COMPETE WITH THAT MINNESOTA TWINS MONEY!?!?!?

funniest thing about that is i've been saying for a few years now sadly that all i want is to just be middle of the pack payroll. We dont have to be the dodgers, just be 15th. Last year, minnesota was 16th at 136 million. It's not an unreasonable ask. could you imagine how consistently competitive this team could be with 40 extra million to spend on players. Of course no owner wants to lose money, but it really bothers me that neither Sherman nor Loria can have vision and realize that this money will be close to revenue neutral if they spend that money and put a good team out there. There is no question that the fans will come out for a good team. It's how south florida rolls. How no one in ownership can read the market and see that this team needs an up front investment as a sign of good faith with the fan base is beyond me. As it stands, it's like a stand off. Sherman wont spend unless more people come out. More people won't come out unless the team puts a quality product out there, which likely requires an up front investment of money. So no one wins. The team doesnt win, sherman doesnt make money, and the fan base remains indifferent.

We needed an owner with an influx of cash to buy the team to make this happen. Instead we got a guy with no money.

[fish16]

I'm with you. And they'll have to trade to improve the bats as even assuming they would spend in FA, the best FAs for them next year are (no order) Ohtani (yea right), Rosario, Bader, Bellinger, M. Chapman.... and then signing pitching to trade pitching - Flaherty, Giolito, Mahle, Montas, Nola, Urias, etc. Rosario/Bader/Bellinger/Chapman are probably a good "second" bat upgrade to get, but they need that first larger one somewhere. I really hope Kim flipped over a desk in Bruce's face about how stupid it is to not sign one of these SS/Nimmo this offseason.

the move isnt to sign, its to trade pitching depth for that last star piece, whether it's reynolds or whoever the next controlled SS or LF that becomes available. If Peraza actually is available, that's the guy who makes the most sense to me. Gleyber cant really play SS and Volpe would cost Eury. Peraza is in the middle ground of being controlled but not such a heralded prospect that you need to trade eury. In my opinion, rogers is the one to deal, so i'd shop him all around the league for whoever gives us that cost controlled SS that can be an immediate impact. Yankees could use rogers. On paper there 5 are solid, but Severino and Montas are injury risks every year, and Nestor Cortes already has a hurt hamstring. they could use one more piece, and i could see them using Rogers like andrew miller in the event all 5 actually are healthy. that makes the most sense to me.

Free agency for a team like us is just not the way to go unless bruce really opens up the wallet for a star SS like Correa like he should have done this year. Realistically, we're stuck in the mid tiers of free agency like we have been since we signed Jose reyes, and that is an incredibly risky tier to spend significants amount of money over a lot of years in. It's how you end up with Garcia;, Soler, and any number of the other mid tier free agents we've signed over the last 10 years that have been duds. Yes it depletes what you actually have on the roster, but if you move the right pieces and scout correctly for the right cost controlled young players or prospects, you can actually build something sustainable in this market and then hopefully with sustained winning, then you can increase the payroll due to higher revenues and maybe get in the game for the right big time free agent at some point.

[rmc523]

Nimmo im fine with, i dont think he's worth the amount of years well into his 30s for a team with the salary constraints like us. It's really just Correa for me as i dont think turner would have ever signed here regardless of the amount of money. The opportunity to get Correa for a little cheaper after his physical issues is just such a blown opportunity to spend money intelligently. This team with Correa is a playoff team, and our bench would be really solid too in that situation. You're talking about every day having the following options off the bench: Wendle, DLC/Sanchez, Berti, and Stallings. That's a really solid bench with versatility and different skill sets to use late in games depending on the situation.

I get not wanting to spend 300M. But once Correa's 2 deals fell through, we should've been on him like flies on shit.

[rmc523]

funniest thing about that is i've been saying for a few years now sadly that all i want is to just be middle of the pack payroll. We dont have to be the dodgers, just be 15th. Last year, minnesota was 16th at 136 million. It's not an unreasonable ask. could you imagine how consistently competitive this team could be with 40 extra million to spend on players. Of course no owner wants to lose money, but it really bothers me that neither Sherman nor Loria can have vision and realize that this money will be close to revenue neutral if they spend that money and put a good team out there. There is no question that the fans will come out for a good team. It's how south florida rolls. How no one in ownership can read the market and see that this team needs an up front investment as a sign of good faith with the fan base is beyond me. As it stands, it's like a stand off. Sherman wont spend unless more people come out. More people won't come out unless the team puts a quality product out there, which likely requires an up front investment of money. So no one wins. The team doesnt win, sherman doesnt make money, and the fan base remains indifferent.

We needed an owner with an influx of cash to buy the team to make this happen. Instead we got a guy with no money.

Yeah, and they refuse to look at the other teams in the market - people come out to see winning teams. They don't come out to see losing teams.

[fish16]

I actually kind of feel this is when it's going to happen if the Pirates make a move. Get him in for spring training, see if he'll sign longterm, other teams have 2-3 weeks to evaluate their players (cough see DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Jerar/Mangum references above, as well as is Cruz a LF? Is Endy Rodriguez a LF? Do the Pirates have any starters?), and realism/desperation sets in. I could see it, but we'll see.

it's really just when the pirates realize he will never re-sign there. It will happen eventually, i think the deadline at the latest. Hopefully its in spring though, as our chances would be a lot higher this year with him for the whole year as opposed to 2.5 months. It just makes too much sense for us to be the trade partner too. they have high end hitting talent, they need high end pitching. rogers, Jesus Sanchez, Meyer/Eder, Watson for him should be more than enough. Maybe you see what extra it would cost to get bednar as well. If he does get traded at some point, i think he ends up here. Reportedly we're one of the most aggressive in trying to get him right now, they just arent shopping him yet.

[lou]

arraez absolutely has an impact on DLCs at bats. It was the equivalent of adding a star CF essentially in the form of jazz moving to CF full time and playing there every day. They were almost assuredly never going to keep Sanchez AND Bleday on the roster because Berti/Cooper/Soler would have been options in an OF spot, and even if they were, none of those guys were playing every day like Jazz will be in CF. Sanchez and Bleday were redundant, and they would have opted for one of them getting everyday ab's in AAA, likely Bleday. there were say 1200 ab's to split between cf and LF, now with jazz playing every day that goes down to say 750 factoring in fulltime ab's in LF and off days for Jazz. sanchez is likely the guy who plays a majority of those against RHP's and berti probably playing a decent amount of times in CF as jazz replacement, all though not all the time because DLC can also hit righties. Right now he's going to get exactly as many ab's as he probably should, somewhere around 300 depending on injuries of course.

I hope they give Sanchez more opportunities than DLC. Time will tell.

You're smoking crack if you think DLC or Sanchez are looking around 300 PA. There are 648 starts at LF, CF, RF, and DH. If Jazz/Garcia/Soler play 420 of them (140 per, and optimistic), there are 220+ starts going nearly exclusive to DLC/Sanchez here, with maybe some limited Berti. 300 PA is like 60 starts and some pinch hits. DLC and Sanchez are going to start 200 games, and Sanchez can only start 100 of them due to really not being able to play left handers. Of course include Burdick/Jerar into this if you think they fail.

[lou]

Nimmo im fine with, i dont think he's worth the amount of years well into his 30s for a team with the salary constraints like us. It's really just Correa for me as i dont think turner would have ever signed here regardless of the amount of money. The opportunity to get Correa for a little cheaper after his physical issues is just such a blown opportunity to spend money intelligently. This team with Correa is a playoff team, and our bench would be really solid too in that situation. You're talking about every day having the following options off the bench: Wendle, DLC/Sanchez, Berti, and Stallings. That's a really solid bench with versatility and different skill sets to use late in games depending on the situation.

Yes a SS is what they need