2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Obviously it depends on if he’s healthy and what the price would be but conforto was a very good player for the Mets for a lot of years. If he can play center at all he would be a really good signing on a short term prove it deal before he goes back into free agency

[lou]

Obviously it depends on if he’s healthy and what the price would be but conforto was a very good player for the Mets for a lot of years. If he can play center at all he would be a really good signing on a short term prove it deal before he goes back into free agency

I agree with this and he's likely an asset versus RHP, but overall disagree he is worth it.

He doesn't move the needle by himself as the PA he'd be replacing is negligible as the Marlins guys might not be totally terrible. Let's say they make *a lot* of fucking moves surrounding Conforto, which I think we'd all agree they'd have to?

Turner - 2/$20 (using him as rumored)
Conforto - 1/$10 (using him as rumored)
M. Taylor - Trade Rojas to Boston who wants him, Boston sends prospects to KC and throw in to MIA (Taylor $4.5m, Subtract Rojas $5.5m)
-(Taylor is a stopgap CF and can play against lefties which is important. He's a CF Rojas to me. Low end defensive starters)
D. Jansen and O. Martinez - Pablo (Martinez massive 3B prospect so set there with Groshans) (Jansen $3.75m, subtract Pablo $6m)
A. Rosario and X. Curry - Laureano and say Burdick sent to Cle, lots of prospects to Oak, like Miller, Lewis, Marlins and Clev comp picks (Rosario $9)

5 offensive upgrades for effectively Pablo and money, and they got a *massive* 3B prospect in the process (which is important) and Curry is a low end SP/longman prospect

Based on these projections - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

This is being replaced.

Rojas 532 PA - 2 WAR
Fortes/Stallings 450 PA - 2 WAR
Burdick/Bleday 390 PA - 1 WAR
Gorshans 217 PA - .8
LeBlanc 315 PA - .6
Sanchez 273 PA - .9
Pablo - 2.8 WAR
=10.1 WAR

Their projections for these guys:

Jansen 3
Turner 2
Conforto 2
Taylor 1.5
Rosario 3.3
=11.8

Net Gain - 1.7 WAR + O. Martinez + they only have Garrett for 109 innings in their projection, and Rogers 120 IP, so they can be scaled up a bit I imagine and let's just move this to a solid 2.5 WAR improvement doing these moves.

That's a 39.5 WAR team, so still minimum 4 WAR to go to Philly/Milwaukee for on paper, 6th best team in NL (and they'd still need Sandy and Jazz to play at 2022 paces, and others to play to their potential).

Payroll has gone up $30m, so this is effectively a $110m team. Would they even spend that for one?


The silver lining here is, they secured a longterm C, SS, and 3B doing this (Rosario has gotta be resigned) which is awesome, so this would open up major trade assets.

Salas (who cares with Martinez/Groshans-Rosario-Jazz for years and Cappe-Watson-Nasim-Morisette behind if Salas moved)
Fortes (they got Jansen, who cares. Might be a sell high also)
Mack (they got Jansen! Sign him for an arbitration buyout! Mack's a great throw in to a deal)
And there is still Meyer/Eder/Fulton as well as all 5 MLB SP minus Pablo + Eury

You're not improving the offense at this point: Short (and long term if a prospect): Jansen - Cooper(Berry) - Jazz - Rosario(Watson) - Turner (Groshans/Martinez) - Conforto/DLC (Bleday) - Taylor (____) - Garcia for 3 years (____) - Soler (____). You deal with CF next year. Again.

But you got that horde of prospects to move. Bednar and Brubaker? I think they'd do backflips for Salas, Mack, and some other notable (non Eury/Meyer/Eder) SP in the system or two or three. Bednar/Brubaker. That's 2.7 WAR projection and would replace 0 production innings for the Marlins, so let's just scale to 3 WAR. 42.5 WAR for the Marlins now (at $113m......)

Phillies are 44 and Brewers 42.5. You got a fighting chance at $113m payroll and you somehow did this without devoting longterm money except maybe a Rosario buyout. And you still can trade Fortes for likely a very very good RP or low end impact SP prospect, which would be good to match with Curry to be the team's "6th" until Eury/Eder show up.



TLDR - You gotta do A LOT to make Conforto work so unless you're going to just shock us all with some incredible masterplan of moves, why spend money? Just do nothing and who cares



Edit - Or trade Rojas for prospects, no Taylor, and blow that shit out for Varsho (add another 2+ WAR there). That along with Bednar/Brubaker would get you to a toss up with the Phillies/Brewers IMO. This would be so much easier if they just spent on an oomph guy.

[rmc523]

Turner signed with the Red Sox, so that's gone.

They'll probably bring Hosmer in and pretend that that'll move the needle.

[fish16]

at this point, it looks like no good free agent hitter wants to play here, and i cant blame them. they will need to get hitters through a trade. im just waiting until sandy or jazz requests a trade. i wouldnt blame them in the slightest if they did.

[rmc523]

at this point, it looks like no good free agent hitter wants to play here, and i cant blame them. they will need to get hitters through a trade. im just waiting until sandy or jazz requests a trade. i wouldnt blame them in the slightest if they did.

It obviously takes two to tango, but Kim is definitely partially to blame. Yes, there's the organizational history that isn't her fault, so she can't be held accountable for that.....but she definitely is responsible for:

1) the complete incompetence of managing (or rather not managing) a roster in-season (we saw this year 1, which I could give a pass early on BUT it continued year 2)

2a) flat out refusing to make trades that could help us

2b) apparently not even bothering to contact other teams or FAs and letting them call her (obviously she does call, but the point is no sense of urgency)

3) having completely incorrect stats on players she signed......or even if Jeter & co pushed for those signings, she looks like a moron when she blurts out how a guy that has literally NEVER once hit 30 hr in a season, has "multiple 30-hr seasons"

4) rumored to be fully in on ONE free agent the entire offseason. ONE.....I'm not counting the "we're interested in player X.....which means we offered $5.00"



and that all turns into an image of ZERO sense of urgency to improve the team that has been terrible for years now.

Players see that. Why would they be eager to sign here if not for a ridiculous overpay, which we clearly aren't offering?

Until they initially overpay for everyone, make meaningful trades/efforts to improve, retain players for all or most of their contracts (shedding the Loria image), and have success overall, it's going to be hard to entice players to come here.

They'll have to overpay for a few years until things improve, and THEN it'll become more of a destination players want to come to.

[Namaste]

Pretty confident that Turner didn’t sign here because he didn’t want to get moved at the deadline this year. He’s got family and plenty of money but moving your family is a pain in the ass.

[rmc523]

Pretty confident that Turner didn’t sign here because he didn’t want to get moved at the deadline this year. He’s got family and plenty of money but moving your family is a pain in the ass.

I don't blame him.

It may have been different had they made several other moves to where it looks like we'd be competitive this year. But with them doing literally nothing, why should a guy toward the end of his career sign with a clear non-contender if he has contender options out there?

The lack of anything is inexcusable.

[Namaste]

Are the Red Sox really a contender, though? They finished dead last in the AL East last year.

I think it had more to do with him thinking it was very likely the Marlins would trade him at the deadline.

[rmc523]

Are the Red Sox really a contender, though? They finished dead last in the AL East last year.

I think it had more to do with him thinking it was very likely the Marlins would trade him at the deadline.

Ok then .....let's view it a different way....

Marlins and Red Sox both suck. Which organization do you want to play for?

[Lee Stone]

It obviously takes two to tango, but Kim is definitely partially to blame. Yes, there's the organizational history that isn't her fault, so she can't be held accountable for that.....but she definitely is responsible for:

1) the complete incompetence of managing (or rather not managing) a roster in-season (we saw this year 1, which I could give a pass early on BUT it continued year 2)

2a) flat out refusing to make trades that could help us

2b) apparently not even bothering to contact other teams or FAs and letting them call her (obviously she does call, but the point is no sense of urgency)

3) having completely incorrect stats on players she signed......or even if Jeter & co pushed for those signings, she looks like a moron when she blurts out how a guy that has literally NEVER once hit 30 hr in a season, has "multiple 30-hr seasons"

4) rumored to be fully in on ONE free agent the entire offseason. ONE.....I'm not counting the "we're interested in player X.....which means we offered $5.00"



and that all turns into an image of ZERO sense of urgency to improve the team that has been terrible for years now.

Players see that. Why would they be eager to sign here if not for a ridiculous overpay, which we clearly aren't offering?

Until they initially overpay for everyone, make meaningful trades/efforts to improve, retain players for all or most of their contracts (shedding the Loria image), and have success overall, it's going to be hard to entice players to come here.

They'll have to overpay for a few years until things improve, and THEN it'll become more of a destination players want to come to.

IL think the Marlins have overpaid for every free agent they've signed for a while now.

[lou]

Ok then .....let's view it a different way....

Marlins and Red Sox both suck. Which organization do you want to play for?

This.

[lou]

They'll have to overpay for a few years until things improve, and THEN it'll become more of a destination players want to come to.

I don't know if they'll need to do this, but they'll need to do this at least once ala Jayson Werth, as well as produce a winning product (at first on paper, and second results).

If these guys sign say Eovaldi (similar to Bassit deal), trade Pablo for D. Jansen/O. Martinez, trade Luzardo/N. Fortes/Salas (all of whom they do not need) for say, Daulton Varsho/prospects..... I bet life becomes a lot easier to sign a Justin Turner type quickly. It becomes a cohesive team and while still likely needing 4 WAR in production somewhere to get to the Phillies/Brewers, they'd have a fighting chance of Sandy/Jazz/Rogers/Cabrera/Varsho/Jansen/Garcia/Soler all hit their upside, and maybe Eury/Eder/Sixto are midseason options and the whole staff is killing people. The Red Sox can't really say this.

Life is much harder not doing Correa/Swanson/Nimmo/Rodon, etc. and doing the above over multiple (multiple) players, which is why they are idiotic, cheap, or both, but they still could have a pretty good offseason if they did something like this. Imagine Rosario on top and they pull another Bender/Anderson/Thompson (1+ WAR arm) out of nowhere. That might get you there if the SP is good as we want it to be. And let's be real - if the team does something like the above, wins 85 and DOESN'T make the playoffs by 1-3 games, we all agree massive success? We will still criticize them why not Nimmo? Correa? Whoever on top of it, but a 16 game swing would be something while setting up multiple positions longterm.

Nothing happening inspires any confidence, but commenting here this inaction is why they are not getting Abreu and Turner for equal money. They need to be the last offseason piece after 2-3 major upgrades have already happened, not the first.

[Namaste]

Ok then .....let's view it a different way....

Marlins and Red Sox both suck. Which organization do you want to play for?

You’re 100% right.

[Todd]

It obviously takes two to tango, but Kim is definitely partially to blame. Yes, there's the organizational history that isn't her fault, so she can't be held accountable for that.....but she definitely is responsible for:

1) the complete incompetence of managing (or rather not managing) a roster in-season (we saw this year 1, which I could give a pass early on BUT it continued year 2)

2a) flat out refusing to make trades that could help us

2b) apparently not even bothering to contact other teams or FAs and letting them call her (obviously she does call, but the point is no sense of urgency)

3) having completely incorrect stats on players she signed......or even if Jeter & co pushed for those signings, she looks like a moron when she blurts out how a guy that has literally NEVER once hit 30 hr in a season, has "multiple 30-hr seasons"

4) rumored to be fully in on ONE free agent the entire offseason. ONE.....I'm not counting the "we're interested in player X.....which means we offered $5.00"



and that all turns into an image of ZERO sense of urgency to improve the team that has been terrible for years now.

Players see that. Why would they be eager to sign here if not for a ridiculous overpay, which we clearly aren't offering?

Until they initially overpay for everyone, make meaningful trades/efforts to improve, retain players for all or most of their contracts (shedding the Loria image), and have success overall, it's going to be hard to entice players to come here.

They'll have to overpay for a few years until things improve, and THEN it'll become more of a destination players want to come to.

Maybe they should have hired someone with actual experience in roster and player management instead of a glorified accountant as a publicity stunt.

[rmc523]

I don't know if they'll need to do this, but they'll need to do this at least once ala Jayson Werth, as well as produce a winning product (at first on paper, and second results).

If these guys sign say Eovaldi (similar to Bassit deal), trade Pablo for D. Jansen/O. Martinez, trade Luzardo/N. Fortes/Salas (all of whom they do not need) for say, Daulton Varsho/prospects..... I bet life becomes a lot easier to sign a Justin Turner type quickly. It becomes a cohesive team and while still likely needing 4 WAR in production somewhere to get to the Phillies/Brewers, they'd have a fighting chance of Sandy/Jazz/Rogers/Cabrera/Varsho/Jansen/Garcia/Soler all hit their upside, and maybe Eury/Eder/Sixto are midseason options and the whole staff is killing people. The Red Sox can't really say this.

Life is much harder not doing Correa/Swanson/Nimmo/Rodon, etc. and doing the above over multiple (multiple) players, which is why they are idiotic, cheap, or both, but they still could have a pretty good offseason if they did something like this. Imagine Rosario on top and they pull another Bender/Anderson/Thompson (1+ WAR arm) out of nowhere. That might get you there if the SP is good as we want it to be. And let's be real - if the team does something like the above, wins 85 and DOESN'T make the playoffs by 1-3 games, we all agree massive success? We will still criticize them why not Nimmo? Correa? Whoever on top of it, but a 16 game swing would be something while setting up multiple positions longterm.

Nothing happening inspires any confidence, but commenting here this inaction is why they are not getting Abreu and Turner for equal money. They need to be the last offseason piece after 2-3 major upgrades have already happened, not the first.

Maybe not for a few years. But they'll have to overpay and/or have success on the field to become somewhere players want to come to. Just "it's Miami" isn't enough.

Right - had they made other moves, and looked to be more competitive this season, FA's may have been more likely to sign on here for even money even now. But unless Miami is a guy's hometown team, I don't blame any FA's for not wanting to come here when Kim has sat on her hands all offseason coming off 90 losses.