2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

I suspect we have a much bigger OWNER problem than we have a GM problem

[lou]

I suspect we have a much bigger OWNER problem than we have a GM problem

I've been saying this 10 months and called a Kim apologist! Watch yourself!

[Nick]

The truth is, it's been pretty much impossible to evaluate our GMs since Dave Dombrowski since our owners have been such cheap assholes.

[lou]

They completed Hernandez trade and ironically got that guy I mentioned the Mets left unprotected - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ts?position=OF

A true, legitimate, defensive CF. Even if an AAA version.

Progress?

[fish16]

Stallings had a 2.5 WAR in 2021. Were the Marlins to assume he had no business being a starting catcher? What valuation have you created that MLB teams should start using?

defensively driven war is not reliable, thats my entire point. did he all of a sudden forget how to frame pitches and play defense last year that caused him to be a negative defensive player last year according to fangraphs? The more likely answer is that WAR overvalued his defense like it overvalues everyones defense and that defensive metrics are not yet reliable and are prone to super big variations from year to year. Offensive metrics are much more consistent on a year to year basis because its a lot easier to quantify.

the guy cant hit himself out of a wet paper bag, and he has always been a terrible hitter. Thinking that this guy fooled umpires to the tune of 2.5 WAR while being a negative hitter to the tune of a 91 OPS+ was always obviously stupid. He didnt just forget how to play defense, but you relied on a fully defensively driven WAR, and that was just never the case because WAR overrates defense a lot.

[fish16]

as expected they took another reliever in the rule 5. stats look really good. In his minor league career, he's thrown 141 innings with 201 k's, 35 walks, 2.80 ERA, .95 WHIP, and a .193 BAA. Good pick. MLB pipeline has him at our 24th best prospect now. Has the stats of a guy who could become a super reliable back end arm that we just got for cheap.

We also took Dane Myers from the Tigers. I see him listed as both a 3b and OF in different places. Really good numbers. Bad plate discipline but 48 xbh's and 21/26 steals in 450 ab's last year. Could be a leblanc type find.

Austin roberts from the pirates we took in the 3rd round. stats dont seem like much of anything.

Christian charle from the pirates as well is a reliever. Decent stats. Still super young at 22.

[Nick]

Stallings had a +.700 OPS in over 750 Major League ABs coming into last season, and had a .584 OPS last year. If Stallings had managed a 91 OPS+ last year nobody would've complained.

[fish16]

Stallings had a +.700 OPS in over 750 Major League ABs coming into last season, and had a .584 OPS last year. If Stallings had managed a 91 OPS+ last year nobody would've complained.

His WRC+ the 3 years prior to being traded here was 82, 92, 94 and his OPS+ was 87, 91, and 91. He never had a slugging percentage over .382. He has been a well below average hitter with 0 power for his entire career and his entire value was based on highly unreliable defensive metrics. Again, how does a guy go from the best pitch framer in baseball to well below average? The metrics arent reliable to measure defense yet.

If he goes back to the below average hitter he was instead of the flat out terrible hitter he was last year, maybe he's a decent back up, but that bat is not playable.

[Nick]

His WRC+ the 3 years prior to being traded here was 82, 92, 94 and his OPS+ was 87, 91, and 91. He never had a slugging percentage over .382. He has been a well below average hitter with 0 power for his entire career and his entire value was based on highly unreliable defensive metrics. Again, how does a guy go from the best pitch framer in baseball to well below average? The metrics arent reliable to measure defense yet.

If he goes back to the below average hitter he was instead of the flat out terrible hitter he was last year, maybe he's a decent back up, but that bat is not playable.

A below average MLB hitter is a very good hitting MLB catcher.

[lou]

His WRC+ the 3 years prior to being traded here was 82, 92, 94 and his OPS+ was 87, 91, and 91. He never had a slugging percentage over .382. He has been a well below average hitter with 0 power for his entire career and his entire value was based on highly unreliable defensive metrics. Again, how does a guy go from the best pitch framer in baseball to well below average? The metrics arent reliable to measure defense yet.

If he goes back to the below average hitter he was instead of the flat out terrible hitter he was last year, maybe he's a decent back up, but that bat is not playable.

Do you think there is a difference between a .382 and .410 slugging percentage? Over 500 AB, this is roughly 15 total bases. Is Nick Fortes .392 slugging last year OK?

To note - Arraez has a career .410 slugging percentage (.420 last year) and you want to play him out of position at 1B, a position one gets offense. A .382 slugging isn't acceptable at catcher apparently, so just checking to make sure 15 extra total bases of slugging is an OK scenario at 1B.

[fish16]

Do you think there is a difference between a .382 and .410 slugging percentage? Over 500 AB, this is roughly 15 total bases. Is Nick Fortes .392 slugging last year OK?

To note - Arraez has a career .410 slugging percentage (.420 last year) and you want to play him out of position at 1B, a position one gets offense. A .382 slugging isn't acceptable at catcher apparently, so just checking to make sure 15 extra total bases of slugging is an OK scenario at 1B.

You're using Arraez's career slugging percentage and stallings career high. Stallings for his career has a slugging percentage of .346. So yea, i do think there is a difference between .346 and .410, especially when the .410 is combined with a batting title and elite plate discipline.

[lou]

You're using Arraez's career slugging percentage and stallings career high. Stallings for his career has a slugging percentage of .346. So yea, i do think there is a difference between .346 and .410, especially when the .410 is combined with a batting title and elite plate discipline.

I don't care enough to look, just letting you keep spinning your wheels justifying some bad takes. I genuinely would love to see a scouting report about Arraez being able to handle 3B (or Jazz SS or CF or shit 3B). That's how Arraez makes sense for this team absent a Jazz trade for a SS/CF. That's it. That's the whole story here.

Or do what you said which is the real good idea - use Eury as the centerpiece for Buxton and Arraez. I don't think it's possible, but if it is, full speed ahead for that and deal with Arraez position issues later as you secured an epic CF that is controlled for cheap for years even if he gets hurt. I'd take that risk. Buxton is awesome - especially defensively.

[fish16]

I don't care enough to look, just letting you keep spinning your wheels justifying some bad takes. I genuinely would love to see a scouting report about Arraez being able to handle 3B (or Jazz SS or CF or shit 3B). That's how Arraez makes sense for this team absent a Jazz trade for a SS/CF. That's it. That's the whole story here.

Or do what you said which is the real good idea - use Eury as the centerpiece for Buxton and Arraez. I don't think it's possible, but if it is, full speed ahead for that and deal with Arraez position issues later as you secured an epic CF that is controlled for cheap for years even if he gets hurt. I'd take that risk. Buxton is awesome - especially defensively.

agreed on Buxton. He gets hurt but he is one of the best players in baseball and they have enough frontline starting pitching already to make that move. I thought they should have been going hard after buxton before he signed that extension last year. Hopefully eventually he stops running full speed into walls in the outfield and stays healthy as he gets older.

[lou]

agreed on Buxton. He gets hurt but he is one of the best players in baseball and they have enough frontline starting pitching already to make that move. I thought they should have been going hard after buxton before he signed that extension last year. Hopefully eventually he stops running full speed into walls in the outfield and stays healthy as he gets older.

We agree on they should have tried to trade the house for Buxton before he signed with Minnesota.

The guy is a 6+ WAR player if he plays a full season, and if you only get him half the year, and have a suitable backup CF, this is very quickly a 3.5-4 WAR floor. Which is a top 6-8 CF situation in baseball with top 1 upside. I'd love him to get 110 starts in CF and another 20+ at DH. And routinely rest him and deal with it. He's incredible.

Let's do that.

Trade the house for Tatis and Grisham. Let them sign Nimmo and extend Soto once Machado opts out. Let's get weird.

[sports24/7]

The truth is, it's been pretty much impossible to evaluate our GMs since Dave Dombrowski since our owners have been such cheap assholes.

I think we do have a bigger owner problem than a GM problem. But having an owner problem necessitates having a good GM, and I think we might also have a GM problem. Just because we have a cheap owner doesn't mean we can't want more from the GM.

The truth is, it's been pretty much impossible to evaluate our GMs since Dave Dombrowski since our owners have been such cheap assholes.

I don't think it's been impossible. While it certainly makes their jobs more difficult, I think we can evaluate them. The Marlins had a highly respected pool of prospects last offseason that really weren't used to make any significant moves. That pool has now depreciated in value, but there's enough there to improve the roster. Also, while they may not have been willing to spend big last offseason, they were willing to spend some. The money they spent on Garcia and Soler could have been spent more wisely than it was. And that's not getting into the stuff about them having a deal for Reynolds that Miami pulled out of at the last minute. The failure to capitalize on trading Pablo Lopez while his value was probably at its highest. The failure to get any kind of value out of a guy like Brian Anderson. Those really aren't spending issues.