2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Punting 2023 would be keeping pablo and counting on regression for guys that have shown no signs of regression and arent all that great players at their peak. Stallings huge regression is an .814 OPS in august in 42 AB's. He is still under a .600 OPS for the year. If he's your backup and they commit to playing fortes 100-120 games, I can live with that. But when have guys regressed to their mean with this franchise in the last 10 years? They have a distinct problem of established veterans coming here and shitting the bed. It has happened to almost every single guy they have signed since they moved to this new ballpark. If you want to pin your hopes on soler and garcia and stallings regressing to the mean, be my guest, you'd be the one punting on 2023 if that's what you're hoping for. The bottom line is that other than jazz, they have literally 0 established impact hitters. they have a lot of guys who can play a role and be decent, but they shouldn't be full time starters and if they are, they should be your 7-8-9 guys in the lineup. Garcia they have no choice to keep and his track record indicates every other year he is productive, and ill give him the benefit of the doubt that he signed a big contract, then had a lockout, and might have not worked his ass off to keep up the performance, but no one else has any real chance of all of a sudden becoming the impact hitter they need, and they need 3-4 of them.

To say they have a solid set up at every single IF position is beyond laughable. They have Lewin diaz, Joey Wendle, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson. Anderson is the only one there with any kind of impact bat track record, and he cant stay healthy and his bat is barely impact. He is what he is, a decent stop gap 3b who can be a starter but should be your 6-7 best hitter. They need all 3 OF spots, and long term answers at 1b, SS, and 3b.

To say this position core is not horseshit and looks a lot worse because of injuries is some serious retroactive spin as to what happened this year. this lineup is complete trash, the only impact hitter is jazz, and their lineup was horrendous even when guys were healthy in April, may, and june. This team needs impact hitters in the worst way, not guys who hit .700 OPS and have inflated defensively carried WAR.

Go out and sign quintana to a 1-2 year deal and let him eat innings next year if you're worried about innings next year, you still have the pitching depth and a lot of talent for next year and the years beyond, and use pablo to get 1-2 impact bats and spread the talent more evenly across the team. If your hope is simply to run it back, make minor moves, hope for regression, and see where you land, where you will land is again a middle of the road team, and that's with no injuries.

Absolutely on Fortes, but I imagine it's a 90/70 split. Fortes should be the heavy side here and he will be with howhe is hitting.

Soler, Garcia, and Stallings aren't being pinned on. KEEPING THE SIX SP TOGETHER IS THE ONLY WAY. You throw plus inning after plus inning and hope for the best. Its the only way. Then finally trade Salas/gang for bat upgrades and don't touch you MLB area of strength outside 2B. This isn't rocket science.

They also have no depth if you don't include Cooper, Berti, Williams, and Groshans. So eliminate 50% of their MLB options, and they have no depth. What planet are you on? They aren't going to give up on Bleday/Sanchez/Burdick and Garcia, and they aren't going to get a longterm option at 1B with Berry likely looming and going there. They also have Groshans now and an assortment of fine 1 year veterans (Anderson/Berti) to help at 3B before he's phased in. They need a center fielder and a short stop. As I've been saying for an incredibly long time.

Great - so sign Quintana and then trade Pablo. Don't put the cart before the horse.

Who also said the SS and CF are minor moves?

I'm glad you are coming off the 88 win exuberance, but you have swung back too far in the other direction. They need to add 5-7 WAR in the offseason and have two starting position spots and some relievers to do that. Let's see what they do.

[lou]

exactly. is there risk of a lack of SP depth with pablo gone? absolutely, but when you're dealing against a stacked deck, you take calculated risks. they have Sandy, which is a big first piece, and Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera have all looked really good this year when healthy, and you have Eury, Eder, and Meyer for the future years as their innings counts grow. To be worried about SP depth with the group we have outside of Pablo and when our lineup is as punchless as it is right now is insanity. We have an 80 million payroll with no real hopes of an actual spending spree, absolutely no punch in the lineup, and no lineup pieces or surefire prospects we can count on moving forward out of the hitters in our system. You wont build the perfect, risk-free team with that payroll, but you can rearrange the pieces to build a team on paper that is a hell of a lot more complete than what we have. They have enough pitching pieces long term and enough talent to feasibly create a really solid rotation with an ace next year, they need to do everything possible to improve the lineup.

If they go out and sign a guy like Correa which is what a good owner would do, it's a different story. but that's also a fairy tale, not anything realistic.

Debunked above already.

[lou]

we are 27th in OPS and Slugging percentage, 23rd in hr's, 21st in doubles, 27th in walks, 26th in OBP. This lineup isn't regressions away from being even remotely competent, and those regressions arent all that likely. To blame it on Aguilar and De la Cruz is beyond laughable

Right so let's blame it on Kim for devoting $7m to Aguilar after signing Soler, and not using that payroll plus trading minor league arms for Bryan Reynolds and signing a stop gap lefty killer infielder.

I mean Garcia/Soler/Stallings are terrible, but at least the team would have made sense that way. And now we'd only be thinking about SS upgrades in the offseason.

[lou]

I think if they did nothing, it’s hard to envision everyone being as bad, or unhealthy, as they’ve been this year.
that said, that’s not enough to get this team where they need to be, and they need to make moves to improve that.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

Those improvements are getting a CF, IF upgrade (presumably SS), and some bullpen righties. I think we all generally agree here, even if someone may want a 1B/3B versus SS. That's fine. Any are practically fine, but I personally wouldn't clog the lane for Berry and Groshans for a year when SS has less upper level depth. It's why Salas or Cappe is the obvious trade centerpiece. Find someone who loves them, and you still have the other for 3B if Groshans fails.

We can debate who and what they can do there (Bruce payroll? Kim finally trading farm pieces? Really beneficial out of nowhere moves like plucking a Nick Anderson or signing a Bass for cheap, etc.), but these need to be major moves to supplement the 21-23 guys they are bringing back. I agree with this? The team will be good if they get the right 3-5 guys here, and they are healthier.

This is like the Florida Panthers - they need Sam Bennett (trade) and Sam Reinhert (moderate FA), and get lucking on a Mason Marchment (plucking Nick Anderson out of nowhere). I'm not saying they'll be the best team in the league like the Panthers, but do that and you can get into wild card contention if the SP and Jazz stay healthy. If everything clicks right, maybe even 88 wins.

[fish16]

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

Those improvements are getting a CF, IF upgrade (presumably SS), and some bullpen righties. I think we all generally agree here, even if someone may want a 1B/3B versus SS. That's fine. Any are practically fine, but I personally wouldn't clog the lane for Berry and Groshans for a year when SS has less upper level depth. It's why Salas or Cappe is the obvious trade centerpiece. Find someone who loves them, and you still have the other for 3B if Groshans fails.

We can debate who and what they can do there (Bruce payroll? Kim finally trading farm pieces? Really beneficial out of nowhere moves like plucking a Nick Anderson or signing a Bass for cheap, etc.), but these need to be major moves to supplement the 21-23 guys they are bringing back. I agree with this? The team will be good if they get the right 3-5 guys here, and they are healthier.

This is like the Florida Panthers - they need Sam Bennett (trade) and Sam Reinhert (moderate FA), and get lucking on a Mason Marchment (plucking Nick Anderson out of nowhere). I'm not saying they'll be the best team in the league like the Panthers, but do that and you can get into wild card contention if the SP and Jazz stay healthy. If everything clicks right, maybe even 88 wins.

This team is closer to the Dion Waiters Hassan Whiteside heat than anything close to the panthers. Panthers had a ton of high end talent in Ekblad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Knight, Lundell and needed a couple defensive pieces they still need. This marlins team has Sandy and Jazz, 2 great starting pieces, and after that our lineup is nothing but slop. They need high end talent in their lineup. As of right now they have exactly 1 young stud who is an impact hitter. Hockey is also much different than baseball due to the salary cap and impact talents coming available significantly more often than in baseball, especially due to the value of team controlled hitters.

Also, the bennett and reinhart additions are equivalent to the additions to the lineup I'm asking for. those weren't retreads, those were top picks with tons of talent playing on mediocre/terrible teams that shook loose. that doesn't happen often in baseball.

[Nick]

He absolutely came out of nowhere as a FV40 prospect at best preseason

I think being a slave to your FV values is one of your problems. Those values don't mean jack shit.

Sixto Sanchez is a FV40+, Joe Mack is also a FV40+ are those two players comparable in any other way possible? Absolutely not. Braxton Garrett was an elite prospect at one time whose prospect trajectory was going nothing but down in the last couple of years, did that potential just go away? Apparently not. Does Sixto's FV40+ status capture his potential to come back and dominate at some point? Does it capture his potential to never throw a competitive pitch again in his life. I'm not sure.

[Nick]

This depth doesn't exist for 2023 at the MLB level if you trade Pablo (or the other 5 MLB starters). They'd need to replace him with 150 MLB starter innings. This also ignores Bender/Poteet injuries severely hurt pen depth, as well as Bass/Pop were traded so there is even less than before.

If we want to talk about pitching trades, its Eury, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Sixto, Miller, Millbrandt, etc. "THAT" is the wise move considering 3 of the guys on the last are likely not 2023 options, and 3 more and likely not even 2024 options.

Sure it does, you can replace the innings via Free Agency, not the production sure but that's the cost of dealing pitching. Sandy, Garrett, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Castano, Neidert, Eury, Eder, Free Agent Innings Eater, should be more than enough to get you the necessary Starting Pitching inning production, at a quality that will be better than what most Major League Pitching staffs are able to put out, and if they don't that's a failure of your training staff, and building up of these guys' arms.

[fish16]

Sure it does, you can replace the innings via Free Agency, not the production sure but that's the cost of dealing pitching. Sandy, Garrett, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Castano, Neidert, Eury, Eder, Free Agent Innings Eater, should be more than enough to get you the necessary Starting Pitching inning production, at a quality that will be better than what most Major League Pitching staffs are able to put out, and if they don't that's a failure of your training staff, and building up of these guys' arms.

exactly. is it a young and innings capped rotation for a few of them? sure. but that's a lot more talent than a lot fo the league and again, having sandy goes a long way. You sign a single guy which all of us agree we would do if we trade pablo, and that's one of the better rotations in the league, and you are still trading pablo to get some hitting.

Also, if anything is missing the trees through the forest, it's worrying about the rotation only for next year and not how they built a good rotation along with a good lineup for years to come, and not this shit we've watched for years now of good young pitching with absolutely no ability to score runs. Sandy, Eury, Meyer, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Fulton plus guys like Neidert, McCambley, etc is more than enough in house team controlled pitching to move forward the next few years. IT is absolutely legal to sign stop gap guys on a yearly basis as well. This whole idea they don't have enough starting pitching is so stupid.

[lou]

This team is closer to the Dion Waiters Hassan Whiteside heat than anything close to the panthers. Panthers had a ton of high end talent in Ekblad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Knight, Lundell and needed a couple defensive pieces they still need. This marlins team has Sandy and Jazz, 2 great starting pieces, and after that our lineup is nothing but slop. They need high end talent in their lineup. As of right now they have exactly 1 young stud who is an impact hitter. Hockey is also much different than baseball due to the salary cap and impact talents coming available significantly more often than in baseball, especially due to the value of team controlled hitters.

Also, the bennett and reinhart additions are equivalent to the additions to the lineup I'm asking for. those weren't retreads, those were top picks with tons of talent playing on mediocre/terrible teams that shook loose. that doesn't happen often in baseball.

Me too - SS and CF

Also your analogy fails as Pablo (Ekblad), Luzardo (Knight), Lundell (Eury), etc. explain everything here.

They need the final bats - I'm saying do that and not move the 6 MLB starters. That is their strength so why get weaker to get better if there are other avenues?

[lou]

I think being a slave to your FV values is one of your problems. Those values don't mean jack shit.

Sixto Sanchez is a FV40+, Joe Mack is also a FV40+ are those two players comparable in any other way possible? Absolutely not. Braxton Garrett was an elite prospect at one time whose prospect trajectory was going nothing but down in the last couple of years, did that potential just go away? Apparently not. Does Sixto's FV40+ status capture his potential to come back and dominate at some point? Does it capture his potential to never throw a competitive pitch again in his life. I'm not sure.

I think this is a major revisionist history where absolutely none of us were counting on Garret for ANYTHING before the year. We all wanted Sandy, Rogers (still an ace preseason), Pablo, Luzardo, and a transition to Meyer/Cabrera as soon as possible. After that Hernandez was likely an acceptable 5 to bridge the gap, and then optimistically Sixto may come back. Garrett/Neidert/Poteet were depth arms who may never be needed with Eury also looming for maybe 23/24. The prospect trajectory absolutely went away, however to Miami's credit, they have pitch mixed the hell out of him (he is barely throwing over 50% FB/CU) and turned him into something. A great developmental story. These things happen. Good for him and the Marlins. This isn't being a slave to prospect rankings (although I for one defer to expert opinions which many Marlins fans ignore).

Being realistic if the plan for next year's pitching depth is to hope Hernandez, Neidert, Eury, Eder, and Sixto handle say 300+ innings (feel free to include Zack Thompson type signings here), the team is fucked IMO. 150 (i.e. keep Pablo, or trade him an immediately replace with a good # 3 SP). I can buy that and cross fingers for Eury/Eder after ASB. But you're talking about needing to find 300 innings here and frankly, this is a major problem. Garrett is already hurt - so the team is throwing crap it's 5th time through already if this were April. These guys have ALL BEEN HURT.

[lou]

Sure it does, you can replace the innings via Free Agency, not the production sure but that's the cost of dealing pitching. Sandy, Garrett, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Castano, Neidert, Eury, Eder, Free Agent Innings Eater, should be more than enough to get you the necessary Starting Pitching inning production, at a quality that will be better than what most Major League Pitching staffs are able to put out, and if they don't that's a failure of your training staff, and building up of these guys' arms.

Which I'm not arguing - but this goes back to the LOL takes on not trading Pablo and its the end of times because of it. Patently a false overreaction. How about let's get to free agency and actually sign this player (Miami is a desired location???) before doing some huge SP move of MLB arms? What happens if Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera/Garrett really get hurt again now and you've traded Pablo already? So now you need 2 SP in the offseason? It's still August.

Castano and Neidert shouldn't be on your list - Neidert is an optionable inventory arm and Castano is OOO so he'll be gone. I guess they could keep him and have a 5-6 lefty bullpen relievers? Seems like a strange move there.

Eury/Eder -0- guarantees as stated. The solution to the team's problem is not saying Eury (never throw 80 innings to date) and Eder (hasn't pitched. Maybe he needs 2-3 years like Garrett). Let's not be disillusioned with prospect rankings as you say. These guys are likely multi years away from being big contributors on a good team.

Also suggesting it's a failure on the team's medical staff to get Eury to double his innings as a 20 year old moving up a level and Eder off major surgery is pretty harsh. Likewise, Garret and Luzardo are throwing huge offspeed pitch mixes and they will fall apart throwing more than 150. Also harsh and not fair. No SP in baseball was throwing these mixes 20 years ago so any historical comparable is off. Your best bet here is arguing Rogers and Cabrera (more changeup dependent, i.e. less stress) shouldn't be babied. They should be throwing less stressful innings so they should handle more. If they are cruising, you can see Rogers getting to 170 and Cabrera 150. And that's super aggressive. Wanna take a bet on the under based on performance and not health?

[lou]

exactly. is it a young and innings capped rotation for a few of them? sure. but that's a lot more talent than a lot fo the league and again, having sandy goes a long way. You sign a single guy which all of us agree we would do if we trade pablo, and that's one of the better rotations in the league, and you are still trading pablo to get some hitting.

Also, if anything is missing the trees through the forest, it's worrying about the rotation only for next year and not how they built a good rotation along with a good lineup for years to come, and not this shit we've watched for years now of good young pitching with absolutely no ability to score runs. Sandy, Eury, Meyer, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Fulton plus guys like Neidert, McCambley, etc is more than enough in house team controlled pitching to move forward the next few years. IT is absolutely legal to sign stop gap guys on a yearly basis as well. This whole idea they don't have enough starting pitching is so stupid.

All of them besides Sandy probably. They can't even let Pablo throw 180-200. He'll fall apart. That is your argument also not mine. So let's be consistent.

Sign the SP and then trade Pablo. Let's see them do that - you're the champion of they are cheap, so to use your own argument against you again, let's see it happen before you just move Pablo off the team and assume they can land some sort of # 3 SP who can eat 150+ innings easily.

And they don't have enough MLB SP for 2023. They are fine longterm. Already said above, unless they immediately replace one of the 6 with a veteran SP (could be 1 year variety), the trade pool should be Eury, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Sixto, Miller, Millbrandt. Trade 3 of those 7 dudes (along with Salas/Lewis/Burdick types) for "2" bats that are play now.

Pipeline isn't impacted as throw Pablo off, Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, presumably at least one of Eury/Meyer/Eder and likely at least Fulton are still around. With Poteet coming back off his surgery. This is still pretty deep, and then maybe they get lucky on a McCambley, Fitterer, Palacios, etc.


Frankly, I am 100% on-board for a 2 year veteran SP signing, immediately trade Pablo, one of Eury/Meyer/Eder (and by this I mean Meyer/Eder as Corbin Caroll is the only player in baseball I'd trade Eury for but I would ask on that), and one of Sixto/Miller/Millbrandt and a few of Salas/Cappe/Lewis/Morisette/Nunez and hope that enormous clump of players (which also includes likely 2-3 of Cooper, Anderson, Wendle, Rojas, and Berti) turns into 3 play now bats (presumably 1B, SS, CF) and some RHP relievers. I gave you this hypothetical above BTW - go get Rosario and Nolan Jones from Cleveland for Pablo, and then shoot out Salas and 4-5 other guys in Marlins top 5-18 range of prospects for Laureano and Blackburn (the SP). This fills every offensive hole with guys with more than a year of control, and if they are going to splurge, they have room for an expensive reliever/closer.



The big picture here is the team is in much better shape than people think, but they have to be creative with those last 3-5 roster spots absent Bruce saying $110m. And we all know there is a 110% chance that probably doesn't happen.

[rmc523]

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

Those improvements are getting a CF, IF upgrade (presumably SS), and some bullpen righties. I think we all generally agree here, even if someone may want a 1B/3B versus SS. That's fine. Any are practically fine, but I personally wouldn't clog the lane for Berry and Groshans for a year when SS has less upper level depth. It's why Salas or Cappe is the obvious trade centerpiece. Find someone who loves them, and you still have the other for 3B if Groshans fails.

We can debate who and what they can do there (Bruce payroll? Kim finally trading farm pieces? Really beneficial out of nowhere moves like plucking a Nick Anderson or signing a Bass for cheap, etc.), but these need to be major moves to supplement the 21-23 guys they are bringing back. I agree with this? The team will be good if they get the right 3-5 guys here, and they are healthier.

This is like the Florida Panthers - they need Sam Bennett (trade) and Sam Reinhert (moderate FA), and get lucking on a Mason Marchment (plucking Nick Anderson out of nowhere). I'm not saying they'll be the best team in the league like the Panthers, but do that and you can get into wild card contention if the SP and Jazz stay healthy. If everything clicks right, maybe even 88 wins.

If Kim solely relies on a correction of “bad luck” as she terms it, then we’re screwed and look for another mediocre season

[rmc523]

I think this is a major revisionist history where absolutely none of us were counting on Garret for ANYTHING before the year. We all wanted Sandy, Rogers (still an ace preseason), Pablo, Luzardo, and a transition to Meyer/Cabrera as soon as possible. After that Hernandez was likely an acceptable 5 to bridge the gap, and then optimistically Sixto may come back. Garrett/Neidert/Poteet were depth arms who may never be needed with Eury also looming for maybe 23/24. The prospect trajectory absolutely went away, however to Miami's credit, they have pitch mixed the hell out of him (he is barely throwing over 50% FB/CU) and turned him into something. A great developmental story. These things happen. Good for him and the Marlins. This isn't being a slave to prospect rankings (although I for one defer to expert opinions which many Marlins fans ignore).

Being realistic if the plan for next year's pitching depth is to hope Hernandez, Neidert, Eury, Eder, and Sixto handle say 300+ innings (feel free to include Zack Thompson type signings here), the team is fucked IMO. 150 (i.e. keep Pablo, or trade him an immediately replace with a good # 3 SP). I can buy that and cross fingers for Eury/Eder after ASB. But you're talking about needing to find 300 innings here and frankly, this is a major problem. Garrett is already hurt - so the team is throwing crap it's 5th time through already if this were April. These guys have ALL BEEN HURT.

Every single year, I advocate for a veteran innings eater type pitcher (or better), and every year they rely on their “depth” and every year, we end up with bullpen games for weeks on end. Why they can’t figure this out is beyond me.

[Nick]

I think this is a major revisionist history where absolutely none of us were counting on Garret for ANYTHING before the year. We all wanted Sandy, Rogers (still an ace preseason), Pablo, Luzardo, and a transition to Meyer/Cabrera as soon as possible. After that Hernandez was likely an acceptable 5 to bridge the gap, and then optimistically Sixto may come back. Garrett/Neidert/Poteet were depth arms who may never be needed with Eury also looming for maybe 23/24. The prospect trajectory absolutely went away, however to Miami's credit, they have pitch mixed the hell out of him (he is barely throwing over 50% FB/CU) and turned him into something. A great developmental story. These things happen. Good for him and the Marlins. This isn't being a slave to prospect rankings (although I for one defer to expert opinions which many Marlins fans ignore).

Being realistic if the plan for next year's pitching depth is to hope Hernandez, Neidert, Eury, Eder, and Sixto handle say 300+ innings (feel free to include Zack Thompson type signings here), the team is fucked IMO. 150 (i.e. keep Pablo, or trade him an immediately replace with a good # 3 SP). I can buy that and cross fingers for Eury/Eder after ASB. But you're talking about needing to find 300 innings here and frankly, this is a major problem. Garrett is already hurt - so the team is throwing crap it's 5th time through already if this were April. These guys have ALL BEEN HURT.

There's no revisionist history. Garrett was not expected to be a major contributor, but he was going to get his innings one way or another. He has the pedigree for showing more than what he's shown. I wouldn't have predicted it, but I also wouldn't have predicted Rogers to go in the tubes either. There's going to be some variation. As far as performance goes I think things have mostly evened out when it comes to the rotation. Sandy's been better than expected, Garrett better than expected, Rogers much worse, Hernandez worse. Pablo probably as expected. Cabrera and Luzardo maybe better, but they've barely been healthy.