2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

You convinced me in reference to Sanchez, lou

But we both know they’ll never do that platoon

max pain stat of the day…..Stallings has a -0.4 WAR and Alfaro has a 0.1 WAR. Small sample size but oooof

[lou]

You convinced me in reference to Sanchez, lou

But we both know they’ll never do that platoon

max pain stat of the day…..Stallings has a -0.4 WAR and Alfaro has a 0.1 WAR. Small sample size but oooof

Yea just atrocious against lefties. I think the defense is encouraging FWIW.

Stallings and Garcia are certainly kicks in the balls.

Soler is better than Castellanos and Schwarber though, and that's ignoring the price.

[fish16]

Yea just atrocious against lefties. I think the defense is encouraging FWIW.

Stallings and Garcia are certainly kicks in the balls.

Soler is better than Castellanos and Schwarber though, and that's ignoring the price.

I have no problem not signing those guys. good players, slow start, but the price is just not worth it for us. funny enough, out of that 2nd tier of guys we were looking at, soler is somehow having the best year of all of them despite the terrible start. He is gonna opt out at this point for next year.

Stallings himself I don't mind, it's just the price they gave up for him seemed like a huge overpay given his completely worthless bat with our offensive needs and the upcoming switch to automated strike zone. If I recall correctly, a huge portion of his defensive value was framing, which thankfully will (hopefully) go away next year as something that provides value. Just looked it up and according to FanGraphs, the last 3 years he was rated 6.0, 2.4, and last year a whopping 8.8 in terms of framing. This year, he's at -1.6.

To me, the rebuild was fine and they built a great farm system, they've just not done the additional moves that move the needle around the young studs. If Sherman isn't willing to have a 100 million payroll he needs to sell, or fire NG and Mattingly and hire somebody in the upper levels of the rays management.

[Nick]

I have no problem not signing those guys. good players, slow start, but the price is just not worth it for us. funny enough, out of that 2nd tier of guys we were looking at, soler is somehow having the best year of all of them despite the terrible start. He is gonna opt out at this point for next year.

Stallings himself I don't mind, it's just the price they gave up for him seemed like a huge overpay given his completely worthless bat with our offensive needs and the upcoming switch to automated strike zone. If I recall correctly, a huge portion of his defensive value was framing, which thankfully will (hopefully) go away next year as something that provides value. Just looked it up and according to FanGraphs, the last 3 years he was rated 6.0, 2.4, and last year a whopping 8.8 in terms of framing. This year, he's at -1.6.

To me, the rebuild was fine and they built a great farm system, they've just not done the additional moves that move the needle around the young studs. If Sherman isn't willing to have a 100 million payroll he needs to sell, or fire NG and Mattingly and hire somebody in the upper levels of the rays management.

While I agree Stallings was not what we needed at Catcher, I wouldn't call what we gave up a huge overpay. Connor Scott continues to put up very underwhelming numbers, and looks like a 4th OF at best. Nicolas projects to be a pretty good reliever, and Zach Thompson looks like he's a guy who will bounce between AAA and the majors the next 5 years.

[fish16]

While I agree Stallings was not what we needed at Catcher, I wouldn't call what we gave up a huge overpay. Connor Scott continues to put up very underwhelming numbers, and looks like a 4th OF at best. Nicolas projects to be a pretty good reliever, and Zach Thompson looks like he's a guy who will bounce between AAA and the majors the next 5 years.

Fair, I'm just high on Scott based on projection for his body type. He's already a really solid hitter in terms of average and getting on base and some gap power, but he's also 6'3 and has been rail thin since he was drafted so I think he can become a longterm MLB starter potentially, and at CF where we now have corner outfielders trying to fill a CF hole, trading him for a 30+ year old catcher who has proven definitively he cant hit, I just didn't love the value.

[fish16]

btw, antonio velez is having a terrible year for the orioles AA team. that was a good deal to get scott and sulser, and head has been solid as well for Roberson, but the refusal to pay for a closer overshadows all of that and renders it moot. We have a bullpen full of solid middle relievers/set up men, but no closer.

[lou]

I have no problem not signing those guys. good players, slow start, but the price is just not worth it for us. funny enough, out of that 2nd tier of guys we were looking at, soler is somehow having the best year of all of them despite the terrible start. He is gonna opt out at this point for next year.

Stallings himself I don't mind, it's just the price they gave up for him seemed like a huge overpay given his completely worthless bat with our offensive needs and the upcoming switch to automated strike zone. If I recall correctly, a huge portion of his defensive value was framing, which thankfully will (hopefully) go away next year as something that provides value. Just looked it up and according to FanGraphs, the last 3 years he was rated 6.0, 2.4, and last year a whopping 8.8 in terms of framing. This year, he's at -1.6.

To me, the rebuild was fine and they built a great farm system, they've just not done the additional moves that move the needle around the young studs. If Sherman isn't willing to have a 100 million payroll he needs to sell, or fire NG and Mattingly and hire somebody in the upper levels of the rays management.

Yes, its the moves they didn't make - (1) SP trade for CF and (2) some other bat upgrade, whether that be a Correa or Rizzo. Everything else mostly made sense on paper for me, except keeping Aguilar versus a different position player and not calling up Meyer/Cabrera ASAP.

BTW Tampa is converting Springs to a SP from a RP. I mention not to prod from past discussion, but to say this does happen. Smart organizations put their best 13 arms out there and if you have to stretch someone out later, stretch them out later. Rays and Cards are good models here. Ignoring their injuries, Meyer and Cabrera should have been up awhile ago basically. At this point though, it's probably working Meyer's service (down 3+ more weeks) and Cabrera not sure about. Is he coming up or did the postpone game knock him back? In any event, this will iron itself out and hopefully they don't botch the next one. We are heading quickly to build to 2023 land so all the kids are going to have ample time soon. Sigh. Then we'll see if Bruce wants to spend some money which you are right about - but I'd quib they need to go to $110m.

They can do this for approximately $80m:

Stallings, Fortes/Henry
Cooper, Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, Bleday/Burdick
_______
Garcia

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, Rogers
Meyer/Cabrera, Sixto, Bass/Sulser/Hernandez, Bender, Poteet
Bleier, Scott, Okert

It's going to be hard to fit in what they need for $80m. It's why $110m is the target in my head - that is Correa and doing a trade for a club controlled prospect.

Or kick Pablo and Bass/Sulser/Hernandez off the team, you're closer to $70m now, and you definitely can fit Correa into $100m, trust Meyer/Cabrera in the rotation, and you've traded a lot of people at this point so filling out the bullpen shouldn't be that big of an issue in theory.


Basically we are heading straight to this offseason again - the team is going to easily be 22-24 guys deep around $70m-$80m in payroll. What are they going to do to add those final few pieces?

[rmc523]

Yes, its the moves they didn't make - (1) SP trade for CF and (2) some other bat upgrade, whether that be a Correa or Rizzo. Everything else mostly made sense on paper for me, except keeping Aguilar versus a different position player and not calling up Meyer/Cabrera ASAP.

BTW Tampa is converting Springs to a SP from a RP. I mention not to prod from past discussion, but to say this does happen. Smart organizations put their best 13 arms out there and if you have to stretch someone out later, stretch them out later. Rays and Cards are good models here. Ignoring their injuries, Meyer and Cabrera should have been up awhile ago basically. At this point though, it's probably working Meyer's service (down 3+ more weeks) and Cabrera not sure about. Is he coming up or did the postpone game knock him back? In any event, this will iron itself out and hopefully they don't botch the next one. We are heading quickly to build to 2023 land so all the kids are going to have ample time soon. Sigh. Then we'll see if Bruce wants to spend some money which you are right about - but I'd quib they need to go to $110m.

They can do this for approximately $80m:

Stallings, Fortes/Henry
Cooper, Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, Bleday/Burdick
_______
Garcia

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Meyer/Cabrera, Rogers
Meyer/Cabrera, Sixto, Bass/Sulser/Hernandez, Bender, Poteet
Bleier, Scott, Okert

It's going to be hard to fit in what they need for $80m. It's why $110m is the target in my head - that is Correa and doing a trade for a club controlled prospect.

Or kick Pablo and Bass/Sulser/Hernandez off the team, you're closer to $70m now, and you definitely can fit Correa into $100m, trust Meyer/Cabrera in the rotation, and you've traded a lot of people at this point so filling out the bullpen shouldn't be that big of an issue in theory.


Basically we are heading straight to this offseason again - the team is going to easily be 22-24 guys deep around $70m-$80m in payroll. What are they going to do to add those final few pieces?

What will they do? Nothing, and talk about how they were in so many games last (this) year, and sticking to the plan will work.

[lou]

What will they do? Nothing, and talk about how they were in so many games last (this) year, and sticking to the plan will work.

Well they will do something, but it's probably Pablo + Minors trade for young CF and SS/3B, and then a patchwork $10m of 1-3 veteran players to plug whatever is needed. So basically, next offseason we are praying for 3-5 breakouts like Jazz and that midseason Eury and Eder are legit. At an $80m payroll when they could have just signed some dudes. Sound right?

Cabrera's box score is phenomenal. The run differential is getting very padded today.

[Namaste]

We’re gonna send a guy with a 6.58 FIP out there to start a Friday home game.

#JustGettinStarted

[Namaste]

Marlins bullpen is 27th in baseball since May 1st

[lou]

Marlins bullpen is 27th in baseball since May 1st

Worked today though? I still don't think the bullpen is an issue. Bass, Poteet, and Okert are looking good. Head is alright and fine for the back of the pen. Scott and Bleier have good ratios/FIP so they should level out (but I suppose everyone has said that Scott's entire career with his control). I have to imagine they get *something* out of Bender, Floro, and Sulser who had a combined 4 WAR(!) last year a -.4 this year so far. I suspect Hernandez is trickled down here pretty soon and maybe he'll be better max effort out of the bullpen versus starting. Maybe Meyer and Sixto eventually get here too. They have the arms IMO, they just aren't using them right + there is objectively some bad luck with all the 1 run losses to some extent. Maybe I'm wrong.

Not sure how they claw out of 7 games under .500 in June, let alone get to 88 wins though. They are going nowhere but 75 wins without 2021-Rogers and 2022-Luzardo, as well as Garcia/Stallings doing something. What a mess.

[Nick]

Worked today though? I still don't think the bullpen is an issue. Bass, Poteet, and Okert are looking good. Head is alright and fine for the back of the pen. Scott and Bleier have good ratios/FIP so they should level out (but I suppose everyone has said that Scott's entire career with his control). I have to imagine they get *something* out of Bender, Floro, and Sulser who had a combined 4 WAR(!) last year a -.4 this year so far. I suspect Hernandez is trickled down here pretty soon and maybe he'll be better max effort out of the bullpen versus starting. Maybe Meyer and Sixto eventually get here too. They have the arms IMO, they just aren't using them right + there is objectively some bad luck with all the 1 run losses to some extent. Maybe I'm wrong.

Not sure how they claw out of 7 games under .500 in June, let alone get to 88 wins though. They are going nowhere but 75 wins without 2021-Rogers and 2022-Luzardo, as well as Garcia/Stallings doing something. What a mess.

We sent Alcantara out in the 7th with 105 pitches to try and avoid going to the pen...

[lou]

We sent Alcantara out in the 7th with 105 pitches to try and avoid going to the pen...

Floro, Pop, Head, Bleier, Nance, Bass, Sulser, and Okert all pitched yesterday. Some with really big pitch counts.

They probably only had Floro, Okert, and Scott available today.

Edit - and Sulser for desperation, but he needs a mental day I imagine

[Namaste]

Is there any reason why we don’t start 2023 with:

Sandy
Pablo
Cabrera
Meyer
Luzardo

with Eury and Sixto filling in when one (or two) of those inevitability get hurt.

or is Pablo gone at the deadline?