2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

If we are doing predictions.... 80-82

A lot goes right, a lot goes wrong, but the team looks great for 2023 on paper with plenty of options to move forward with in the rotation. Basically, exactly where we are right now.

Bonus prediction - Correa/Reynolds are 10+ WAR and Aguilar/Soler are around 3 WAR.

Bonus prediction 2 - An 87 win team will make the playoffs

A predicted 75 wins a while ago, I'll give them 2 more wins after the Baltimore trade. 77-85.

[fish16]

prediction- 85-87 wins, around the wild card picture.

Sandy dark horse cy young candidate, Max Meyer is forced to the rotation early due to injury and wins ROY.

[fish16]

isan diaz in his triumphant return to our organization last night went 0-4 with 4 k's in AAA.

[Namaste]

78 wins.

it’s gonna be a rough first 6 weeks of the season

[Namaste]

prediction- 85-87 wins, around the wild card picture..

Also known as the Literally Everything Has To Go Right prediction

[lou]

78 wins.

it’s gonna be a rough first 6 weeks of the season

Yes the schedule is brutal before it lets up. Giants, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, and Braves, then a small home respite, and back to the west coast for some Padres.

If they start 14-17 I'll be very happy.

[rmc523]

If we are doing predictions.... 80-82

A lot goes right, a lot goes wrong, but the team looks great for 2023 on paper with plenty of options to move forward with in the rotation. Basically, exactly where we are right now.

Bonus prediction - Correa/Reynolds are 10+ WAR and Aguilar/Soler are around 3 WAR.

Bonus prediction 2 - An 87 win team will make the playoffs

I get the point you're making, BUT

I'm tired of hearing how we'll look X years from now. I want us to look good NOW. lol

[sports24/7]

I don’t have a win total prediction, but I’ll say essentially everything has to go right for them to even be in the WC race. They’ll be a pretty bad defensive team, and a below average hitting team, which will cancel out the pitching.

Hopefully they wake up and make a trade for a good CF sooner rather than later, and maybe they can be in the tick of it without needing everything to go right. I could totally see them starting slow, panicking, and paying more than they’d have to right now to land someone. Hopefully Reynolds won’t have an extension by then. I can also see them connected to making a big deal at the deadline, only for Ng to fail to pull the trigger once again.

[rmc523]

I don’t have a win total prediction, but I’ll say essentially everything has to go right for them to even be in the WC race. They’ll be a pretty bad defensive team, and a below average hitting team, which will cancel out the pitching.

Hopefully they wake up and make a trade for a good CF sooner rather than later, and maybe they can be in the tick of it without needing everything to go right. I could totally see them starting slow, panicking, and paying more than they’d have to right now to land someone. Hopefully Reynolds won’t have an extension by then. I can also see them connected to making a big deal at the deadline, only for Ng to fail to pull the trigger once again.

This is the same team/organization that fell into freefall early last season and they did absolutely nothing but let the team flounder.

I don't see them doing anything should that happen.

[rmc523]

Under Ng, they've seemed hesitant to do much of anything, trade wise at least if you want to take out the signings.

[sports24/7]

This is the same team/organization that fell into freefall early last season and they did absolutely nothing but let the team flounder.

I don't see them doing anything should that happen.

It feels like there is more urgency to compete now. I think they’ve convinced themselves they did enough already, but I do think they will see it as a disappointment if they don’t compete this year.

[lou]

Under Ng, they've seemed hesitant to do much of anything, trade wise at least if you want to take out the signings.

The only thing I can think of once we remove cheap and/or incompetent is.... they know they aren't ready and the pitchers need another year. Rogers may have soph. slump. Luzardo looks good but is a huge question mark. Pablo health. Hernandez health. Cabrera health. Sixto health. Eder health. Meyer hasn't had his growth spurt to 6'2 yet. Eury needs 200 more minor league innings.

That I can buy, but it still doesn't reconcile with spending some real money on Garcia and Soler, and keeping a luxury Aguilar in arbitration - positions they have players coming with Bleday/Burdick/Lewin - so I'm not sure what this plan is besides closing your eyes and hoping everything, just everything, cuts right. Clearly need 1 major guy.

And I just realized Aguilar, Soler, and Garcia make the same money as Correa. Fuck me.

Stallings, Henry
Cooper, Lewin
Jazz
Correa, Berti
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson, DLC
Sanchez
_______ <------ And they have Bleday and Burdick coming

Why the fuck are Aguilar, Soler, and Garcia on this team?
Couldn't they have just signed Correa and got a stop-gap RF for 1 year to bridge to Bleday/Burdick?
And upgrade Lewin if you want another bat?
And you still have all the arms to trade so you could have done Reynolds on top of this anyways?

So it's incompetent. Got it.

Sorry I took the long road to get here.

[rmc523]

The only thing I can think of once we remove cheap and/or incompetent is.... they know they aren't ready and the pitchers need another year. Rogers may have soph. slump. Luzardo looks good but is a huge question mark. Pablo health. Hernandez health. Cabrera health. Sixto health. Eder health. Meyer hasn't had his growth spurt to 6'2 yet. Eury needs 200 more minor league innings.

That I can buy, but it still doesn't reconcile with spending some real money on Garcia and Soler, and keeping a luxury Aguilar in arbitration - positions they have players coming with Bleday/Burdick/Lewin - so I'm not sure what this plan is besides closing your eyes and hoping everything, just everything, cuts right. Clearly need 1 major guy.

And I just realized Aguilar, Soler, and Garcia make the same money as Correa. Fuck me.

Stallings, Henry
Cooper, Lewin
Jazz
Correa, Berti
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson, DLC
Sanchez
_______ <------ And they have Bleday and Burdick coming

Why the fuck are Aguilar, Soler, and Garcia on this team?
Couldn't they have just signed Correa and got a stop-gap RF for 1 year to bridge to Bleday/Burdick?
And upgrade Lewin if you want another bat?
And you still have all the arms to trade so you could have done Reynolds on top of this anyways?

So it's incompetent. Got it.

Sorry I took the long road to get here.

Which is a reason to do MORE, and sign a vet innings eater and whatnot to safeguard against those injuries and slumps.

It's painfully easy for us to see, why can't they?

And I realize they're the ones writing the checks, and it's easy for us to throw fake money around, but still....

[lou]

Lee, we dump on you but when credit is due, I personally will acknowledge it.

Looks like 21 year old high schooler CJ Abrams is beating 24 year old Bleday to the majors. He was your dude in that draft, and while I still don't think the Marlins made a terrible decision at the time, clearly he (or Riley Greene directly after) would have likely been better picks as of today. In no world would I have thought Abrams would beat him to the majors even if he became the better player overall longterm.

Let's hope Bleday's AFL is generally real and he becomes a 3+ WAR corner bat and not the next Colin Moran. But this is a real punch in the gut if a team further along than the Marlins in SD thinks Abrams can make their team (even if it's due mainly to Tatis getting hurt).

[lou]

Three brave souls picked the Marlins for a wild card (out of 22) - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraph...f-predictions/

Sandy also got a few cy young votes (3), and Meyer(!) got one ROY pick.