Tweet
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel put out his top 100 list, and seems to be higher on the Marlins' prospects than most. At least from a rankings standpoint. He has Meyer (33), Watson (40), Cabrera (44), Sanchez (54), Perez (55), Burdick (71), and Bleday (91). I think that's the first I've seen Burdick on any of these lists.
33. Max Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Fastball/slider-oriented potential front-line starter
I scouted Meyer last spring when he had a matchup with Hunter Greene and I thought Meyer was good, but a little different than he was in college. Meyer's velo spiked in the shortened 2020 spring, hitting 100 mph and flashing an 80-grade spiked slider coming out of a Walker Buehler-ish aggressive delivery from a slighter built righty. In the game I saw, I graded him out with three 55-grade pitches, with the fastball/slider showing 60 grades at times, which I'm told was one of his weaker stuff showings of the year. Over a full season with shorter rest, 100 mph and an 80 slider wasn't realistic, so there's a bit of question around exactly where Meyer's stuff will settle.
He's already in Jupiter and pumping 97 mph, and he sat at 94.6 over last season. I think he'll pitch in 2022 with a 60-grade fastball, 65-grade slider and 50-to-55-grade changeup while continuing to show the components for average, starter-grade command. Meyer was a bit of a late bloomer, not really engaging with his own analytics or pitching gurus, playing multiple sports, and now he's learned a yearlong routine of a starter, something he hadn't done before in his career. I like the raw talent, makeup and signals for more growth versus the average 22-year-old top-10 pick, so count me on the Meyer train.
40. Kahlil Watson, SS, Miami Marlins
Age: 18 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Gifted hitter with real defensive value
Watson was a revelation two summers ago on the showcase circuit, when the largely Southeast-based prep events still happened while the Cape and other college leagues were largely dormant. Watson made the most of it, coming out of nowhere on a midtier travel team to show a plus bat, emerging raw power that's at least above average, and a middle-infield fit along with solid average speed. There's some question as to whether he'll fit at shortstop or second and exactly how much of his power makes it in games, but he's otherwise one of the most stable talents you can bet on in the lower minors: left-handed-hitting, hit-first middle infielder with some pop.
He was No. 5 on my draft board, and there were rumors he'd be an underslot option at a top-five pick moments before the draft, but he ended up sliding all the way to the No. 16 pick, signing for $4.54 million (roughly the 11th overall slot). The early returns with the Marlins are all positive (the stats have been great in a small sample), and I think the competition level in a pro environment, particularly with Derek Jeter around and engaged with Watson specifically, is exactly where he will thrive. This is the kind of player who ends up in the top 10 of this list in a year or two, and I think a number of teams will feel foolish for passing on him.
44. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Potential No. 2-3 starter, if he gets more aggressive
If Ryan Pepiot (No. 59 on this list) has the best changeup in the minors, Cabrera isn't far behind him and is definitely in the top five. In addition, he's listed at 6-foot-5, 217 pounds, sits 95-98 mph with his fastball, and has two above-average breaking balls and a history of strike-throwing. That wasn't really around in 2021 for the first time, at Triple-A and the big leagues, when he was trying to get hitters to chase and started nibbling, soon finding that more advanced hitters would fall for that. He threw his heater less than 40% of the time as another measure of trying to be too cute. So, the adjustments are pretty simple to just trust your raw stuff a bit more, which he has proved he can do.
54. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Potential front-line starter coming off shoulder surgery
You're probably already familiar with Sanchez and likely have seen a few clips of his pitches (96-99 mph sinker, 70-grade changeup, above-average slider) darting all over the place. His career 1.0 WAR from seven career big league outings in 2020 will also eclipse the career totals of more than a few players on this list. All that said, he missed all of 2021 with a shoulder injury that led to surgery that he's still recovering from. Expectations are he'll be back on a mound and reasonably back to his old self sometime this year, but shoulders are much trickier to handicap than elbow surgeries.
There seemed to always be something negative from rival evaluators finding its way into my notes on Sanchez over the years: some minor arm soreness here, looking overweight there, never getting the level of whiffs his pure stuff suggests, etc. I'm forced to hedge on Sanchez and cross my fingers hoping he's what those seven starts showed for the foreseeable future.
The history of pitcher health in general says to be wary of fighting injury inertia; just read the hedging in last year's rankings when I had Sanchez as the top pitching prospect in baseball (11th overall) coming off an electric MLB debut and I was still measured in my praise for the whole top tier of pitchers. In retrospect, only Ian Anderson of that group deserved more love, and he was more very good last year than amazing. Eventually, my top 100 will have just like five pitchers on it.
55. Eury Perez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 18 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Massive teenaged front-line starter with advanced potential
If Volpe was the out-of-nowhere position player riser of the year, Perez qualifies for the pitcher version of that award. He was 23rd on last year's Marlins list as an arrow-up sleeper to watch, but my short report was "6-9 and into the mid-90s with strikes." That's a great place to start and Perez really built on it in 2021. He's now sitting 94-96 (early reports are he was throwing even harder earlier this month), his curveball is now solid average, and his changeup has turned into a 55-or-60-grade out pitch. Even then, with his stuff progressing and keeping his strike-throwing tendencies, the expectation for a normal 18-year-old with this ability would be to pitch in rookie ball, maybe get a few starts in low-A and run into some problems against advanced hitters at times. Instead, Perez carved both low-A and high-A (108 strikeouts, 26 walks) over 78.0 innings, while his domestic peers were facing high school and rookie ball competition.
If you've read me for a while, you'll know that I tend to round down on velocity-reliant teenaged righties and my second least-favorite type is massive righties. The massive righty (let's say 6-foot-7 and up) has longer arms and more strength and will get velocity early (mixing a bit with that first group) but then often has trouble throwing strikes and becomes somewhat injury prone as he physically matures. There just aren't many massive starting pitchers in baseball because of these heavy headwinds.
Perez has a solid-average physical ability, so he's not the worst version of what I'm talking about, and he also has the most attractive r
33. Max Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 22 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Fastball/slider-oriented potential front-line starter
I scouted Meyer last spring when he had a matchup with Hunter Greene and I thought Meyer was good, but a little different than he was in college. Meyer's velo spiked in the shortened 2020 spring, hitting 100 mph and flashing an 80-grade spiked slider coming out of a Walker Buehler-ish aggressive delivery from a slighter built righty. In the game I saw, I graded him out with three 55-grade pitches, with the fastball/slider showing 60 grades at times, which I'm told was one of his weaker stuff showings of the year. Over a full season with shorter rest, 100 mph and an 80 slider wasn't realistic, so there's a bit of question around exactly where Meyer's stuff will settle.
He's already in Jupiter and pumping 97 mph, and he sat at 94.6 over last season. I think he'll pitch in 2022 with a 60-grade fastball, 65-grade slider and 50-to-55-grade changeup while continuing to show the components for average, starter-grade command. Meyer was a bit of a late bloomer, not really engaging with his own analytics or pitching gurus, playing multiple sports, and now he's learned a yearlong routine of a starter, something he hadn't done before in his career. I like the raw talent, makeup and signals for more growth versus the average 22-year-old top-10 pick, so count me on the Meyer train.
40. Kahlil Watson, SS, Miami Marlins
Age: 18 | Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Type: Gifted hitter with real defensive value
Watson was a revelation two summers ago on the showcase circuit, when the largely Southeast-based prep events still happened while the Cape and other college leagues were largely dormant. Watson made the most of it, coming out of nowhere on a midtier travel team to show a plus bat, emerging raw power that's at least above average, and a middle-infield fit along with solid average speed. There's some question as to whether he'll fit at shortstop or second and exactly how much of his power makes it in games, but he's otherwise one of the most stable talents you can bet on in the lower minors: left-handed-hitting, hit-first middle infielder with some pop.
He was No. 5 on my draft board, and there were rumors he'd be an underslot option at a top-five pick moments before the draft, but he ended up sliding all the way to the No. 16 pick, signing for $4.54 million (roughly the 11th overall slot). The early returns with the Marlins are all positive (the stats have been great in a small sample), and I think the competition level in a pro environment, particularly with Derek Jeter around and engaged with Watson specifically, is exactly where he will thrive. This is the kind of player who ends up in the top 10 of this list in a year or two, and I think a number of teams will feel foolish for passing on him.
44. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Potential No. 2-3 starter, if he gets more aggressive
If Ryan Pepiot (No. 59 on this list) has the best changeup in the minors, Cabrera isn't far behind him and is definitely in the top five. In addition, he's listed at 6-foot-5, 217 pounds, sits 95-98 mph with his fastball, and has two above-average breaking balls and a history of strike-throwing. That wasn't really around in 2021 for the first time, at Triple-A and the big leagues, when he was trying to get hitters to chase and started nibbling, soon finding that more advanced hitters would fall for that. He threw his heater less than 40% of the time as another measure of trying to be too cute. So, the adjustments are pretty simple to just trust your raw stuff a bit more, which he has proved he can do.
54. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Potential front-line starter coming off shoulder surgery
You're probably already familiar with Sanchez and likely have seen a few clips of his pitches (96-99 mph sinker, 70-grade changeup, above-average slider) darting all over the place. His career 1.0 WAR from seven career big league outings in 2020 will also eclipse the career totals of more than a few players on this list. All that said, he missed all of 2021 with a shoulder injury that led to surgery that he's still recovering from. Expectations are he'll be back on a mound and reasonably back to his old self sometime this year, but shoulders are much trickier to handicap than elbow surgeries.
There seemed to always be something negative from rival evaluators finding its way into my notes on Sanchez over the years: some minor arm soreness here, looking overweight there, never getting the level of whiffs his pure stuff suggests, etc. I'm forced to hedge on Sanchez and cross my fingers hoping he's what those seven starts showed for the foreseeable future.
The history of pitcher health in general says to be wary of fighting injury inertia; just read the hedging in last year's rankings when I had Sanchez as the top pitching prospect in baseball (11th overall) coming off an electric MLB debut and I was still measured in my praise for the whole top tier of pitchers. In retrospect, only Ian Anderson of that group deserved more love, and he was more very good last year than amazing. Eventually, my top 100 will have just like five pitchers on it.
55. Eury Perez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 18 | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Type: Massive teenaged front-line starter with advanced potential
If Volpe was the out-of-nowhere position player riser of the year, Perez qualifies for the pitcher version of that award. He was 23rd on last year's Marlins list as an arrow-up sleeper to watch, but my short report was "6-9 and into the mid-90s with strikes." That's a great place to start and Perez really built on it in 2021. He's now sitting 94-96 (early reports are he was throwing even harder earlier this month), his curveball is now solid average, and his changeup has turned into a 55-or-60-grade out pitch. Even then, with his stuff progressing and keeping his strike-throwing tendencies, the expectation for a normal 18-year-old with this ability would be to pitch in rookie ball, maybe get a few starts in low-A and run into some problems against advanced hitters at times. Instead, Perez carved both low-A and high-A (108 strikeouts, 26 walks) over 78.0 innings, while his domestic peers were facing high school and rookie ball competition.
If you've read me for a while, you'll know that I tend to round down on velocity-reliant teenaged righties and my second least-favorite type is massive righties. The massive righty (let's say 6-foot-7 and up) has longer arms and more strength and will get velocity early (mixing a bit with that first group) but then often has trouble throwing strikes and becomes somewhat injury prone as he physically matures. There just aren't many massive starting pitchers in baseball because of these heavy headwinds.
Perez has a solid-average physical ability, so he's not the worst version of what I'm talking about, and he also has the most attractive r
Comment