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2021-2022 Offseason Thread

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  • Mish did a spaces on Twitter just now, and I missed the beginning, but here are the highlights. Again, he's still coming from the stance that he's not going to give too much away as far a details:

    -He's heard they are interested in Schwarber. Interestingly, he said he'd be brought in to play LF. He did later say he doesn't think they're going to get him, though.

    -The real interesting point, to dovetail off of that, is he thinks they may be at the point where Garcia could be CF.

    -That's not to say they're done, or even close to being done. He said if you look at their current OF, it's pretty obvious they aren't close to contending, and he says they definitely know that. So, with Garcia potentially being CF, the big deal they may be looking at could be for a corner OF.

    -He said the talk is that Wendel is a super utility guy, but he thinks we might want to wait to see all the deals happen, and he could be a starter. It sounded like he was saying Brian Anderson could be included in a deal.

    -He said he asked on Jansen and hasn't found anyone that said they're in on him (but he did say maybe he just doesn't know, but they are and said the Stallings deal was done without him knowing about it).

    -He said he hasn't heard they're in on Cedric Mullins.

    -He said it doesn't seem like they've revisited Brandon Marsh, which he thinks is weird because they were so far down the road, and the Angels badly want pitching.

    -He gets the feeling that if they make a mega deal, Burdick would be in it. He says he doesn't know that for sure, but that is his guess.

    -He says they feel like they have to win now, so because of that, they're not going to clutch their prospects.

    -He said Garrett Cooper will be their every day DH if universal DH comes to baseball. He said it a couple times, and he was pretty definitive in saying it.

    -He didn't sound optimistic on Castellanos. He echoed the report that he wants a longterm deal and they don't want to do that. He also said he's not signing before the lockout, and the Marlins don't want to wait and risk getting locked out on other deals.

    -He says he still thinks they have a very big trade in them. He said he thinks the best player they're going to acquire this offseason isn't yet on the roster (I should hope so). He said he's "almost positive" that they make more trades.

    -He was asked if he thinks they trade any of their starters "like Eliaser", and he said "yes".

    -He was asked about Conforto, and he said it could be an option if they don't get what they want. He said they've checked in with "all of these guys"

    -He said he doesn't think the Marlins have any untouchables in the system when it comes to these trades.

    -He said he thinks it's going to be a spring training battle between Jackson and Fortes for the backup catcher job, and he thinks Jackson will win it. When pressed on this he points to their history of trying to justify their moves, and they traded Duvall for Jackson, so...

    Comment


    • Signing Schwarber and putting Garcia in center sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by rmc523 View Post
        BRINSON DFA'd
        Thank the Lord....so I was right all those years ago Fish 16

        Comment


        • Originally posted by sports24/7 View Post
          Mish did a spaces on Twitter just now, and I missed the beginning, but here are the highlights. ..
          A lot of good stuff here.

          Schwarber in LF / Garcia permanent CF seems like a bad idea. So is Conforto in CF as he is really bad there. I can get behind Garcia in CF 30-40 games in smaller ballparks (i.e., away games), and trying Jazz out there more permanently in a Ketel Marte type of role. That seems like a better hail mary as Wendle would be fine at 2B. No way this front office, who value defense (Stallings, Rojas, Wendle, Lewin, and keeping guys like Sierra around so long), is thinking this is the primary plan.

          Anderson is definitely expendable if they get the right guys back, but that just creates more holes. Wendle-Rojas-Jazz, and Berti off the bench, isn't enough. They'd need another 2B/3B type. That's screaming Chris Taylor or (Ketel Marte). Hell, do both!

          Not re-visitng Marsh does seem weird to me, but they can probably always get him quickly at any time so who knows. Moving any of Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick in a deal would be fine if they get a longterm CF in the deal. Moving Elisier and others is fine. Good about no untouchables in the system. I stand firm the only untouchables are Sandy, Rogers, and Jazz, and they'd need a lot for any of Pablo, Cabrera, Sixto, Meyer, Eury, Luzardo, Sanchez, Watson, and Bleday.

          That's interesting with Cooper. Lewin has an option. I always thought they'd have him up as he showed some pop end of the year and his defense would counter balance Aguilar/Cooper. I guess Lewin can go to AAA.

          I hate the idea of Jackson/Fortes as the backup catchers, but maybe they intend to grind Stallings into the ground for 2 years and one of those guys surprises and is a decent .5 WAR backup. This isn't that big of a deal, but they have the budget to do better.

          So with all this, the current team is likely....

          Stallings, Jackson/Fortes ($3.5m)
          Aguilar, Cooper ($10m)
          Jazz ($750k)
          Rojas, Wendle ($9m)
          Anderson ($4.5m)
          Sanchez, DLC ($1.5m)
          ________, Berti ($1m)
          Garcia ($13.25)
          =$43.5m

          Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera ($11.5m)
          Floro, Bender, Bass, Elisier, Pop, Head ($8.5m)
          Bleier, Okert ($3m)
          =23m

          Total - $63.5+ million (Sixto AAA)

          They could shed Pablo, Elisier, Bass, and Berti, and that opens up $8.5m, and immediately replace them internally with say Sixto, Holloway/Neidert/Poteet as the longman 5th RHP, and acquiring a club controlled lefty for cheap (Rule V, lower deals, etc.). That moves things down at least $6M to $57m plus range, and they'd need just two CF/bats and they'd have trade assets from Pablo coming back so presumably at least 1 of those is immediately solved. Basically, they can easily trade for Brandon Marsh, sign Chris Taylor, and likely have $5-10m left to spend on a luxury reliever/innings eater.

          Absent moves, that team above is maybe...33-38 WAR overall, with no one getting hurt. They'd have to have 2-3 Sandy/Rogers level breakouts into 4.5+ WAR guys from Pablo, Sanchez, Jazz, Garcia, Luzardo, Cabrera, Sixto, etc. to likely be a real contender and not a fringe wild card team.

          Trading Pablo/Elisier is going to knock that projection down 4 WAR, so if that is the route, they really need to bring in a trifecta of guys as mentioned - Taylor, Marsh, # 4 SP. I can see that then being a net gain of a few more WAR, and we could add Taylor and Marsh to the breakout category as there is upside there.


          Long story short, they need to add 5+ more WAR in players this offseason. And we should all be angry if they don't do that when payroll is sitting low $60s and they have all their major pitching trade chips still.

          Comment


          • at this point it seems pretty clear they will be making a major move from their pitching depth for a CF- likely either a top prospect ready for the majors immediately or a former top prospect who is just finding his footing at the big league level.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by fish16 View Post
              at this point it seems pretty clear they will be making a major move from their pitching depth for a CF- likely either a top prospect ready for the majors immediately or a former top prospect who is just finding his footing at the big league level.
              The problem is adding "Brandon Marsh" doesn't move this dial for 2022 alone, even if that is a good longterm get. Especially if it's Pablo or Aanderson going which really hurts this years club absent other moves.

              They need to spend $20-25m more on 2-3 guys and get a longterm piece for CF/C/SS/3B, whether that be a Marsh or a Campusano. I do think they will do more, but I'd like to see the big trade, which would likely help get a FA signed as the plan would be clearer.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by lou View Post

                The problem is adding "Brandon Marsh" doesn't move this dial for 2022 alone, even if that is a good longterm get. Especially if it's Pablo or Aanderson going which really hurts this years club absent other moves.

                They need to spend $20-25m more on 2-3 guys and get a longterm piece for CF/C/SS/3B, whether that be a Marsh or a Campusano. I do think they will do more, but I'd like to see the big trade, which would likely help get a FA signed as the plan would be clearer.
                Trent Grisham and Campusano and Hosmer would move the needle for me.

                Comment


                • I would like to see a solid 8 young starters heading into the season to allow for injuries or ineffectiveness. Rogers, Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Luzardo will be given the nod going into spring. Sixto will get his shot. Elieser is iffy. Had he survived the season, Eder would have definitely come into play. Thompson was a possibility before the trade. Meyer? He's a question mark for me. Antonio Velez is the premiere sleeper - the best command and a lefty to boot. To me, the rotation is still shy. Is there a keeper among Neidert, Garrett, Castano and Poteet? I don't think so. Unless you are talking about those four, McCambley, and perhaps Jeff Lindgren, I really don't see a surplus to deal from. I suppose Meyer could net a decent return but Perez should be viewed as truly untouchable.

                  In order to trade for a player like Ketel Marte, I think the Marlins would have to deal the likes of Perez, Meyer, Bleday, and a potential star like Salas.
                  Last edited by Lee Stone; 12-01-2021, 08:39 AM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                    I would like to see a solid 8 young starters heading into the season to allow for injuries or ineffectiveness. Rogers, Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Luzardo will be given the nod going into spring. Sixto will get his shot. Elieser is iffy. Had he survived the season, Eder would have definitely come into play. Thompson was a possibility before the trade. Meyer? He's a question mark for me. Antonio Velez is the premiere sleeper - the best command and a lefty to boot. To me, the rotation is still shy. Is there a keeper among Neidert, Garrett, Castano and Poteet? I don't think so. Unless you are talking about those four, McCambley, and perhaps Jeff Lindgren, I really don't see a surplus to deal from. I suppose Meyer could net a decent return but Perez should be viewed as truly untouchable.

                    In order to trade for a player like Ketel Marte, I think the Marlins would have to deal the likes of Perez, Meyer, Bleday, and a potential star like Salas.
                    do you ever look back at how many guys like Lindgren and Velez you tout every year based off good stats at an old age for the level they are at?

                    Comment


                    • I know that there are no hard and fast rules about how and at what rate pitchers progress. I don't know how anyone could discount the brilliance that Lindgren and Velez demonstrated last August and September.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                        I would like to see a solid 8 young starters heading into the season to allow for injuries or ineffectiveness. Rogers, Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Luzardo will be given the nod going into spring. Sixto will get his shot. Elieser is iffy. Had he survived the season, Eder would have definitely come into play. Thompson was a possibility before the trade. Meyer? He's a question mark for me. Antonio Velez is the premiere sleeper - the best command and a lefty to boot. To me, the rotation is still shy. Is there a keeper among Neidert, Garrett, Castano and Poteet? I don't think so. Unless you are talking about those four, McCambley, and perhaps Jeff Lindgren, I really don't see a surplus to deal from. I suppose Meyer could net a decent return but Perez should be viewed as truly untouchable.

                        In order to trade for a player like Ketel Marte, I think the Marlins would have to deal the likes of Perez, Meyer, Bleday, and a potential star like Salas.
                        They would very quickly get Ketel for Eury, Meyer, and Bleday. That is two top 50 prospects (if you believe the recent moves from Eury being put above Watson) and Bleday is borderline 100 and was literally the best player in the AFL. You include Salas, you're getting more.

                        Your 8 starters are:

                        Sandy < - I think it's very unlikely they trade any of these 5, due to being awesome, or were volatile last year so not max value
                        Rogers
                        Luzardo
                        Cabrera
                        Sixto

                        Pablo or Elisier, and if they trade both sign a veteran 4/5 innings eater to help

                        Poteet/Neidert/Holloway/Garrett < - De facto 7th SP. You could do a lot worse. I like to think 1 of them will be alright enough for a month of starts if needed. Likewise, maybe 2 or more work out and have a Thompson/Elisier style "breakout" where we kind of like them. It could easily happen.

                        Meyer < - You're getting deep if you hit your 8th SP, and he's going to be a post super-2 call up (assuming no CBA changes)

                        or there is always june/july trades if things look great and they need one.


                        This is fine. They can trade 1-2 of this group, and may just need a cheap 1 year innings eater to help carry the load. Then, they still have Eury, Eder, Fulton, McCambley, etc. to deal from. And then after that, they have the hopes are prayers like Antonio Velez turning into something.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Lee Stone View Post
                          I know that there are no hard and fast rules about how and at what rate pitchers progress. I don't know how anyone could discount the brilliance that Lindgren and Velez demonstrated last August and September.
                          Because they are old for their level and their stuff may not translate to higher levels once they get past AA, you know the comment made every year about the new flavor of the week outside top 30 prospect you like.

                          If these guys were above average prospects and maybe more than just a future back end reliever, they'd be landing in at least the "20s" in the Marlins system.

                          Comment


                          • Honestly I like Velez a lot, I was touting him even before Lee, but I don't bring him up every god damn time I talk about our prospects.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by fish16 View Post
                              at this point it seems pretty clear they will be making a major move from their pitching depth for a CF- likely either a top prospect ready for the majors immediately or a former top prospect who is just finding his footing at the big league level.
                              Based off of what Mish said last night, I think it’s much more likely that move is made for a corner OF, and Garcia will be in CF. It sounded like they’ve run out of realistic options at CF, and there are more opportunities to get a really good corner OF. I don’t think they’d be content with just getting an unproven player like Marsh. I think they want someone who they feel good about being an impact bat immediately because they know they need that.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by fish16 View Post

                                Trent Grisham and Campusano and Hosmer would move the needle for me.
                                I mean, yea.

                                But I don't see any scenario they'd trade Grisham, but for those 3, the Marlins would have to include Pablo, eat $30-40m of Hosmer, probably send over Floro or Bender, Bleday/Burdick, and maybe someone like Cooper/Lewin as they could use a 1B platoon option for cheap.

                                Grisham, Campusano, and absorbing $30-40m of dead money spread out over 4 years
                                Pablo, Floro/Bender, Bleday/Burdick, Cooper/Lewin

                                It would be something wild like that, and further contingent on SD being satisfied with replacing Grisham with another OF with that money they've just saved

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