2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Still think trying to get good value for Byron buxton and signing him to a decent long term deal and hope you get a discount because of his injury history and hope he stays healthy is the best course of action for the offseason. Id much rather sign a guy like that than one of the top free agents who will be more expensive and older. Give me Buxton and Garver for Pablo and prospects and then ALSO sign one of those 2nd tier free agent hitters who I think provide better value than the top of the market guys. Buxton and Garver for Pablo, Meyer, and Salas Or Ian Lewis plus a flier guy or 2. then sign 2 OF's, one good corner OF starter on a 1+1 deal like Canha or even Michael Conforto on a bounceback contract, then get me a bench OF who you could rely on when injuries hit on a 1 year deal like Mccutchen if his price is below 5 million, then spend money on 3 veteran bullpen arms like Darren O Day, Mark Melancon, Tyler Clippard, etc who can be had on small 1 year deals.

C- Garver
1b- Lewin
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas
3b- anderson
LF- Conforto
CF- Buxton
RF- Jesus Sanchez
DH- Aguilar and Coopers healthy month
Bench- De La Cruz, 5th OF, Fortes or other backup C, Cooper or Aguilar, backup MI
SP- Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Elieser/Thompson stack 2 times through the order each, then whichever one has the best spring out of Luzardo, Cabrera, Neidert, etc.
RP- Bender, FA, FA, FA, Floro, Bleier, Bass, Pop, filler.


That's a much deeper lineup with none of the black holes we have become accustomed to, doesn't cost a ton of free agent money, and doesn't give long-term deals to guys who will become an albatross at the end. And I just really think that if you get Buxton you can get unreal value due to his injury history and upcoming FA.

[Nick]

I'm all about getting Buxton if we can sign him to a long-term extension, but I'd hate to give up both Pablo and Meyer.

If something like Meyer, McCambley and Fulton could get it done I'd do it. Maybe you could even throw in Harrison, Jerar Encarnacion or Devers

[fish16]

I'm all about getting Buxton if we can sign him to a long-term extension, but I'd hate to give up both Pablo and Meyer.

If something like Meyer, McCambley and Fulton could get it done I'd do it. Maybe you could even throw in Harrison, Jerar Encarnacion or Devers

Id tend to agree. Personally, I think given the amount of lower level mid infielders with high potential we have, id figure out who we like the best and then use the others as trade chips. Especially with Pablo in a deal, I think we could quickly go from great pitching depth in the upper minors to throwing some real shitty pitchers every 5th day in the case of bad injury luck.

Pablo, Salas or Ian Lewis, Burdick or conine, then guys like Nunez and Cappe. I definitely would insist on Garver from them though. Im at the point where I've been watching such bad hitting catchers other than the few realmuto years for pretty much every year since the dynamite combo of John Baker and Ronny Paulino that id take a slightly below average defensive catcher if he gives near .800 OPS level hitting production. I place a really high importance on lineup depth 1-9 and having that black hole at C is such a hard thing to overcome when you lack superstar talent. Less so without the P spot in the order but still, you have a bad C and then you get an injury at 3b or 2b again and all of a sudden you have alfaro and joe panik types giving up 7 to 8 outs a game out of 27.

[fish16]

BA's new top 10 for our system is unbelievably high on the lower minors and younger guys. Eury Perez #1 which is quite the rise, Watson at 2, Salas at 8 and Ian lewis (who no one talks about) at 9. Unreal to think we can have a top 10 that doesn't include Fulton, Nicolas, McCambley, or Misner among others.

2 guys who I think are primed to be in the Jesus Sanchez discussion at this time next year- Bleday and Misner. Im trying to come up with the comp for misner but he seems like a prototypical leadoff hitting CF who can defend and steal bases unbelievably efficiently. High OBP and SLG and more mediocre looking average. A little lorenzo cain-y to me.

[Lee Stone]

I'm all about getting Buxton if we can sign him to a long-term extension, but I'd hate to give up both Pablo and Meyer.

If something like Meyer, McCambley and Fulton could get it done I'd do it. Maybe you could even throw in Harrison, Jerar Encarnacion or Devers

Based on the research and evaluation performed by baseballtradevalues.com, which takes into account a player's performance, salary, age and team control, Meyer alone has a value of $22 million. Buxton is around $14 million (due to the single year of control). By the numbers, Meyer might get both Buxton and C Garver (perhaps with a little sweetener tossed in - McCambley for example). Pablo alone is valued at $66 million.

[Todd]

BA's new top 10 for our system is unbelievably high on the lower minors and younger guys. Eury Perez #1 which is quite the rise, Watson at 2, Salas at 8 and Ian lewis (who no one talks about) at 9. Unreal to think we can have a top 10 that doesn't include Fulton, Nicolas, McCambley, or Misner among others.

2 guys who I think are primed to be in the Jesus Sanchez discussion at this time next year- Bleday and Misner. Im trying to come up with the comp for misner but he seems like a prototypical leadoff hitting CF who can defend and steal bases unbelievably efficiently. High OBP and SLG and more mediocre looking average. A little lorenzo cain-y to me.

A comparison I liked for Misner if he can put it together is Kotsay.

Fwiw I expect Burdick to get every shot at the LF spot in ST.

[fish16]

Based on the research and evaluation performed by baseballtradevalues.com, which takes into account a player's performance, salary, age and team control, Meyer alone has a value of $22 million. Buxton is around $14 million (due to the single year of control). By the numbers, Meyer might get both Buxton and C Garver (perhaps with a little sweetener tossed in - McCambley for example). Pablo alone is valued at $66 million.

there is literally no shot you get buxton and garver for Meyer. Any team trading for Buxton, and especially if its the marlins, would need to be given the right to negotiate an extension with him before any deal is done so the value for him would be more once a long term extension is in place.

[fish16]

A comparison I liked for Misner if he can put it together is Kotsay.

Fwiw I expect Burdick to get every shot at the LF spot in ST.

early kotsay is a good comp. Misner looks to be a more effective and prolific basestealer though. Trying to think of the modern OF with above average power and really good base stealing. Arozarena this year is actually a good comp. good but not great power numbers, 20 SB's, lots of k's.

I think Burdick and Bleday will get shots as well but I hope they sign 2 guys so that its not necessary. Both could benefit from more time in the minors at AAA and if they are going to struggle when they first get up anyways, might as well wait until the service time implications no longer matter.

[Lee Stone]

If the Marlins are going to fill their top needs by trading arms, I'd guess that the Rays and Blue Jays would be their trade partners. Brujan and Josh Lowe from Tampa (both switch hitters) are ready for 2B and CF. Moreno would be the ideal catcher from Toronto.

[lou]

Based on the research and evaluation performed by baseballtradevalues.com, which takes into account a player's performance, salary, age and team control, Meyer alone has a value of $22 million. Buxton is around $14 million (due to the single year of control). By the numbers, Meyer might get both Buxton and C Garver (perhaps with a little sweetener tossed in - McCambley for example). Pablo alone is valued at $66 million.

That is a horrible value for Buxton. The guy is a floor 4 WAR player even if probably injured for 30 games. Any reasonable analysis of assuming a WAR in current baseball is $9-10m, minus his contract is going to get you to around. $30m.... plus the anticipated draft pick compensation when he turns down a qualifying offer.

I think it would take Meyer + a guy in Marlins top 10-20 to get Buxton. I don't think Garver is worth much, but I could easily see Nick's deal - Meyer(Sixto, Cabrera, Eury), McCambley, Fulton, + throw ins for those two. That makes sense both way.

Also in general, Pablo makes no sense for Minn. - they stink and need years of control in arms. Pablo makes sense for LAA who is win now and has an OF to burn.

[lou]

I'm all about getting Buxton if we can sign him to a long-term extension, but I'd hate to give up both Pablo and Meyer.

If something like Meyer, McCambley and Fulton could get it done I'd do it. Maybe you could even throw in Harrison, Jerar Encarnacion or Devers

Regarding Buxton extension, next year is his age 28 season. His agency team is drooling over a star year and being able to sell ages 29-32. He was like the best player in baseball in 2021 when healthy.

I'd roll the dice on him also, but I don't think there is any sort of "huge" discount here. I think they'd need to guarantee this offseason something like 7/$150m minimum. And then this swings around to, why wouldn't Minnesota do that? He is absolutely a building block for 2 years from now when they are good. I guess they can be jaded and realize they have a lot of good bats, but they developed him and may miss out on the explosion you know?

He's absolutely the right player, it's just going to be challenge to get him, and sign him. That's all I'm saying here. The Marlins definitely have the goods to get it done though.

[lou]

BA's new top 10 for our system is unbelievably high on the lower minors and younger guys. Eury Perez #1 which is quite the rise, Watson at 2, Salas at 8 and Ian lewis (who no one talks about) at 9. Unreal to think we can have a top 10 that doesn't include Fulton, Nicolas, McCambley, or Misner among others.

2 guys who I think are primed to be in the Jesus Sanchez discussion at this time next year- Bleday and Misner. Im trying to come up with the comp for misner but he seems like a prototypical leadoff hitting CF who can defend and steal bases unbelievably efficiently. High OBP and SLG and more mediocre looking average. A little lorenzo cain-y to me.

First, I'm with you on Bleday, not Misner.

Second, that is unbelievable with Eury. He is a top 40 prospect in baseball with that ranking. And I. Lewis is mentioned here and there, but #9 is about 6-10 spots higher than I'd expect. I would have though Nicolas (a young Kevin Millwood according to Miami Herald scouting contacts) and Fulton would be ahead, but that's awesome they love him.

Before seeing this, I think I would have gone with this as top 10 (excluding Sixto and Cabrera), but will be interested in seeing how this shakes out over the offseason:

Top 50 prospects - Watson, Meyer
Maybe back end top 100 or close - Bleday, Eder, Eury
Good FV45 projectables - Nicolas, Fulton, Salas, Burdick, Mack

[fish16]

First, I'm with you on Bleday, not Misner.

Second, that is unbelievable with Eury. He is a top 40 prospect in baseball with that ranking. And I. Lewis is mentioned here and there, but #9 is about 6-10 spots higher than I'd expect. I would have though Nicolas (a young Kevin Millwood according to Miami Herald scouting contacts) and Fulton would be ahead, but that's awesome they love him.

Before seeing this, I think I would have gone with this as top 10 (excluding Sixto and Cabrera), but will be interested in seeing how this shakes out over the offseason:

Top 50 prospects - Watson, Meyer
Maybe back end top 100 or close - Bleday, Eder, Eury
Good FV45 projectables - Nicolas, Fulton, Salas, Burdick, Mack

I'm admittedly higher on bleday than misner as well, I just really like what I have seen from misner the first 2 minor league years in regards to translatable MLB tools. Steals are less prevalent than they ever have been but if the efficiency in stealing bases that misner has shown is legit, you combine that with really impressive raw power and other physical tools and I think he has a pretty high ceiling potentially and a pretty decent floor. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up panning out as the CF of the future and leadoff guy for us for a while. Sanchez more of a 2 or 5 hitter, bleday a 3 or 4 guy best case scenario.

[rmc523]

Also the Mets offered QOs to Conforto and Syndergaard to those that may have wanted buy low/rebound candidates. Meaning we’d drop down in draft picks to sign them…I don’t see them doing that.

[fish16]

Also the Mets offered QOs to Conforto and Syndergaard to those that may have wanted buy low/rebound candidates. Meaning we’d drop down in draft picks to sign them…I don’t see them doing that.

that's unfortunate. We were never going to get Syndergaard but conforto without the draft pick ramifications was a very interesting bounce back short term possibility