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Jayson Stark: Marlins Expected to Keep Josh Johnson
A couple of times this week, we've quoted baseball officials who pegged the odds of Johnson remaining a Marlin at "95 percent." But, by Saturday morning, the consensus was that that figure had dropped.
Oh, it's still more likely than unlikely that Johnson isn't going anywhere. But the aftermath of the Greinke deal has changed the equation, at least a little bit. The execs we conferred with now lessen those odds to the neighborhood of 75 percent. Here's why:
The Texas Rangers need an ace. Period.
They have the deepest team in baseball, so they're built just fine for the long haul. But when they get to October, what pitcher do they send out there to match up with Justin Verlander or Jered Weaver, or CC Sabathia?
Cliff Lee doesn't work there anymore. C.J. Wilson doesn't work there anymore. And Colby Lewis (4-1, with a 2.34 ERA, in eight postseason starts) is out for the year. So there's no pitcher on their roster who has started a Game 1 of any postseason series on this side of the Pacific. And only Derek Holland has started a Game 2.
So, the Rangers need a game-changer. And not only do they know now that that game-changer won't be Zack Greinke but they've just watched Greinke go to their biggest rival. Does that mean the pressure is rising in Texas at the same rate as the thermometer? Other clubs sure think so.
"I just have a feeling," said an executive of one club Saturday morning, "that the cowboy Hall of Famer might be ready to step up and say, 'Let's get something done.'"
The cowboy Hall of Famer -- an old cowhand named Nolan Ryan -- pitched for 27 seasons and never got to start a single World Series game. So, it's easy to guess which way he's driving this herd.
But so far, according to clubs that have talked to the Rangers, Texas has been balking at including its two most coveted prospects -- shortstop Jurickson Profar and third baseman Mike Olt -- in any deal. It cost the Rangers Greinke. Now they need to weigh whether it's worth costing them Johnson or Shields.
The Rangers have made it clear, those clubs say, that they're not trading Profar in any deal. But there are conflicting views on whether they would waver on Olt if they're not trading for a rental like Greinke.
Well, (A) Johnson is signed through next year. And (B) he's an Oklahoman who undoubtedly would be very open to staying in Texas long term. So, he's an excellent fit. And, as one exec said Saturday, "The only club with the pieces to get Johnson is Texas."
But we should point out that the Rangers aren't the only team still dabbling in the Josh Johnson market. Clubs we've spoken with identify the Dodgers, Orioles and Blue Jays as teams that have aggressively chased this fellow. And there are indications that the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, Royals and others have at least checked in.
Oh, the price hasn't dropped. And the Marlins keep telling clubs it won't ever drop. They're asking for "the [Mark] Teixeira deal" -- i.e., the equivalent of the 2007 whopper that sent Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Texas. And if that sort of package isn't there, they're happy to hold on to their ace.
But is it possible they would soften that stance if the Rangers, or someone else, sweetened their offer? We have a feeling we're about to find out.
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