Marlins Outright Lefty West

[Bobbob1313]

Yep.

That has to change.

But from what I've heard, the CBA does limit what teams can spend in the draft, so we'll see if that levels the playing field somewhat as well.

[Todd]

2002-2008 Boston Red Sox

C - Ryan Lavarnway
1B - Lars Anderson
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Jed Lowrie
3B -
LF - Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick
CF - David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury
RF - Matt Murton, Ryan Kalish,
DH -
B -

SP - Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Mike Bowden, Justin Masterson
RP - Jon Papelbon, Cla Meredith, Daniel Bard,


Stars - Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury
Above Average - Jon Papelbon, Clay Buchholz
Solid MLB - David Murphy, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson
Average MLB - Cla Meredith, Mike Bowden
Bench Material - Craig Hansen, Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Matt Murton
Potential - Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Lavarnway

holy fuck... Theo
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yea thats fine... feel like lou is more generous than me though

Ironically, I believe like 3 of the 5 or maybe even 4 in the 1st round in 2005 got more $$ than Masterson.

[lou]

Considering we draft in the middle just about every year, that's not unexpected.

The real issue is missing on Skip. That sucked.

I do not think draft position makes much of a difference. Yes, Tampa is a clear example of what can happen with so many premium picks, but at the same time with over 2/3rds of the league 'done,' Boston, Atlanta, San Francisco, etc. haven't been cellar dwellers and are out picking teams like Baltimore, San Diego (remember, they blew eleven first/second round picks in just 07/08. That's far worse than our 2005) and Cleveland who have not done very much during that span.

You want to argue money? Sure. No arguments having the latitude to pay a guy a couple extra hundred thousand is a big deal and might help secure a better player, but I do not feel draft position is highly relevant. End of the day, even the Rays nabbed a lot of their talent (Moore, Hellickson, Jennings) in later rounds. That's just good scouting.

[Mainge]

That doesn't make any sense to me.
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The later you pick, the more the talent pool you have to choose from decreases.

Why wouldn't draft position have any effect?

[lou]

27th in baseball from '08-'10 according to BA (no link, on phone. Posted it at the other place)

Played a huge part. The fact they were average while paying amonst the lowest is a positive at least

It's something. You have to give the Marlins an A+ for non first round draft picks. i.e., the ones not getting the massive bonuses. Basically all of their talent - Johnson, Stanton, Morrison, Gaby, Vargas - is not first rounders.

If money is one of the issues making them god awful with the first round, by all means show us something.
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That doesn't make any sense to me.
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The later you pick, the more the talent pool you have to choose from decreases.

Why wouldn't draft position have any effect?

Look at the spread. Baltimore and others have had great picks and consistently blow them. Red Sox won two world series during that span and were back of the draft. Position of the pick, not that important over the course of a 7 year spread
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Are we putting all of that on Boston out spending people? I can see how a few guys, like Hansen, fit that bill, but you can't just dump that on the whole draft. It really comes down to Theo and his boys being better talent evaluators.

[Mainge]

A seven year sample size is enough to make that conclusion?

[lou]

I think seven years of drafting is pretty significant. I think it's really safe to say Theo and Friedman are better than Beinfest, and astronomically better than the jokes the Cubs, Mets, and Orioles have been employing

[Mainge]

I don't agree but that's fine. I also don't think that it's safe to say anything regarding Theo except that he's spent about 15 million more over the last three years than Beinfest has.

But hopefully this new revenue and the new BCA can help even the playing field somewhat in regards to the draft.

[Bobbob1313]

Big thing that helps the Yankees and Red Sox is every year there's one or two guys who publicly make it known that they won't sign for anything less than $X million, which scares most of the draft away. But not the Red Sox and Yankees. They get to grab those guys late in the first round, but are essentially getting top-10 talent. Since 2006, the Red Sox have given out 43 draft bonuses of at least $500,000. That's pretty huge to be able to do that.

While I can't find the relevant information for the Marlins, I can say that the Marlins have given out three $2 million-plus contracts over the last decade: Fernandez (14th pick,) Skipworth (6th pick,) and Hermida (11th pick.) Over the same time, the Red Sox have given out 3 as well: to the 30th pick, the 26th pick and the 39th pick. Two out of those three were actually the Red Sox's second pick in the first round, meaning they knew they could grab another first-round talent before those guys because they knew only they would be willing to pay the price tag that late in the round.

And, compounding that is the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees routinely offer their FAs arbitration, earning them extra first rounders, since they aren't worried about the potential impact of them accepting arbi either. The Red Sox have had 23 first-round or supplemental picks since 2002, and that's with them not having any on '02. The Marlins had 15 in the same span.

So before we go praising the Red Sox's talent evaluation skills, let's understand that, while working well within the rules of the game, they were fixing the system. They hit, sure. But they've also been playing an unfair game.

Hopefully, with the new stadium and increased revenue streams, the team can take advantage of these small, but significant advantages available to franchises in the draft that we essentially have not since 2005, at least.
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Piecing together what data I can find, the Marlins gave out 13 $500,000 bonuses from 05-09. The Red Sox gave out 25.

And none of the Marlins' in that span went to players outside of the top 3 rounds.

The Red Sox gave out 8 bonuses of at least $500,000 outside of the top 3 rounds, with two of them topping $1,000,000.

Maybe the Red Sox and Theo are geniuses. But they're not just dealing with a little bit of extra cash. They're throwing gigantic piles of money around. Like I said, they're playing a different game.

I'm sure a few other teams are doing similar thIngs, I'm just picking the Red Sox to focus on. The money has to be considered an enormous part of their success in the drafts. They routinely select players who are much higher rated than where they are drafted because they can meet their bonus demand when nobody else will.
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I will say '05 is one year where money and opportunity can't be used as excuses for the Red Sox being better. They had the same number of first rounders as the Marlins and spent about $1 million less between than, and yet came out with Buccholz, Ellsbury and Lowrie compared to the Marlins' Volstad and nothing.

But outside of that year, Im not sure there's a ton of evidence that they're just better than everyone else. Outside of that year, most of their advantage can be explained by their massive monetary advantage.

And all of this discussion also ignores that, given that they almost always have a completely loaded major league roster, the Red Sox (and other teams like them, specifically the Yankees and Phillies off the top of my head recently,) can avoid ever really having to rush a prospect. They can properly develop young players without having to expose them to more advanced levels at young ages and potentially wreck their development. This is, of course, an impossible argument to prove as an advantage, but it's one more factor to consider that possibly gives certain teams an advantage.

[Bobbob1313]

Now, obviously I'm well aware that none of this proves that Theo and the Red Sox are not inherently more skilled than their competitors at scouting, identifying and developing talent.

However, I just think the discussion needs this nuance. If the prevailing wisdom is that Theo has this skill, then his skill needs to be evaluated within the context it is occurring.

It is entirely possible that the Red Sox great drafting is mostly the result of their skills as an organization in identifying, scouting and developing talent.
However you cannot remove that skill from the reality of their situation, which is that they are working from a more advantageous position that just about any franchise in baseball when it comes to the draft.

Their successes are inextricable from the context they occurred in.

[lou]

Awesome. Few thoughts.

There are a lot of Red Sox, and the Yankees, Tigers, Nationals recently even without Harper/Strausburg, Angels, Rangers, and others hammer the draft. There is still competition for 'higher priced' players even if half the league is priced out of some guys, and it still falls back to talent evaluation and believing that guy is worth his monetary demand. I know you aren't singularly pointing out the Red Sox, but I have to imagine a dozen teams will throw around serious cash on a guy they believe in. The Red Sox still get their guys, and they are producing a shitload of MLB talent. They could easily be blowing that money on shitty players.

I think when I am done I am going to go back and figure out how many 1/2 versus 3-50 round picks panned out. Maybe the Red Sox/Rays have more quantity of better players simply because they play the arbitration game better than other franchises and end of the day, they pick good players at the same percentage of other franchises just have double the picks cause like you say, we all agree the draft is a chaotic crapshoot. I think that would help "rank" the franchises as a better success rate would trump quantity if we are trying to compare and figure out what tier of GMs beinfest falls into for drafting.
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Blue Jays 02-08. (18, 1/2 round picks)

Stars -
Above Average - Romero, Marcum
Average - Lind, Arencibia, A. Hill, D. Bush, Janssen, Snider (should be good)
Reserves - Rzepczynski, Cecil, Litsch, E. Thames, R. Adams, Mastny
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Oakland 2002-2008 (28, 1/2 round picks).

Stars
Above Average - Swisher, Ethier, Cahill, Street, Bailey
Average - Suzuki, Pennington, J. Weeks
Reserves - Mazarro, T. Ross, Teahen, J. Baker, Quintanilla, L. Powell, T. Buck
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Twins 2002-2008 (23, 1/2 round picks)

Stars
Above Average -
Average - Span, S. Baker, Crain, Meek, Perkins, Slowey, Parmalee (generous)
Reserves- Duensing, Revere, Neshek, Plouffe
And their 2008 top prospect is Hicks so he should be somewhere in a year or three
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Marines 2002-2008, (12, 1/2 round picks)

Stars
Above Average - Ad. Jones, Morrow
Average - Fister, E. O'Flaherty
Reserves - C. Tillman, Kelly, Tuisasosopo, M. Lowe, B. Bannister, A. Moore, Adcock
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Rays A+ (8 above average players, another 6-8 normal MLB players)
Red Sox A+ (6-7 above average players, and 12-15 MLB players)
Braves A (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
Giants A- (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Royals A- (5-6 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Tigers B+ (4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
D-Backs B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Brewers B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB Players)
Dodgers B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Athletics B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal players), 28, 1/2 round picks
Yankees B (3-4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB Players)
Phillies C+ (3-4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Marlins C+ (3 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Blue Jays C+ (2 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 18, 1/2 round picks
Reds C (2-4 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players)
Angels C (2-3 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB players)
Padres C (2 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Twins C- (0-1 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 23, 1/2 round picks
Mariners C- (2 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 12, 1/2 round picks
Astros D+ (2 above average players, and 3-5 normal MLB players)
Orioles D+ (1-2 above average guy, and 4-6 MLB players)
White Sox D+ (1-2 above average guys, 4-6 MLB players)
Mets D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Rockies D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Cleveland F (6-8 normal MLB players)
Cubs F- (4-6 normal MLB players)

Rangers
Nationals/Expos
Cardinals
Pirates
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I'm leaving the "rank" just based on quantity right now, but as you can see adding in how many "premium top 75" draft picks which will certainly start skewing things. If you gave the Mariners an extra 16, 1/2 round picks as compared to Oakland, I think Seattle would probably come ahead. Oakland is going to move down this list fast, and Minnesota probably even more.

[Jay]

Does it really fall on the GM? He may just be getting bad evaluations from scouts or not have adequate resources to scout enough players. Also how do these organizations rank in signing international talent? Maybe they spend more of their resources on finding talent outside of the draft.

I just looked at wikipedia for some info on the new rules for the draft. The penalty for being over 5% or less isn't going to stop teams like the red sox from spending on a guy they want. Also now I want to know how the forfeited draft picks will work. It just sounds dumb to distribute them to another team. Why should team A spending to much on the draft result in team B getting their pick the next year. Also it'll be interesting to see if these picks end up being traded and if they are for what.

I figure the rule 4 draft and rule 5 draft names come from the clause number of the original agreement. Please correct me if I'm wrong with that. But if that's the case what were rules 1, 2 and 3?

[lou]

Rays, 14, 1/2 round picks (Price, Longoria, Niemann, Brignac, Delmon, BJ, and Beckham)
Marlins, 20, 1/2 round picks
Red sox, 23 1/2 round picks
Cubs, 16, 1/2 round picks

Rays kick ass. Yea they hammered their early picks and most panned out, but look at how much stuff they developed outside top 75 picks. If you take away those 7 guys, they still have:

Stars - Moore, Hellickson
Above Average - Jennings, W. Davis
Average - J. Gomes
Bench Material - Jaso, Hammell, McGee

That would just push them down to "B" range, without any 1/2 round picks. That is amazing.
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Does it really fall on the GM? He may just be getting bad evaluations from scouts or not have adequate resources to scout enough players. Also how do these organizations rank in signing international talent? Maybe they spend more of their resources on finding talent outside of the draft.

I just looked at wikipedia for some info on the new rules for the draft. The penalty for being over 5% or less isn't going to stop teams like the red sox from spending on a guy they want. Also now I want to know how the forfeited draft picks will work. It just sounds dumb to distribute them to another team. Why should team A spending to much on the draft result in team B getting their pick the next year. Also it'll be interesting to see if these picks end up being traded and if they are for what.

I figure the rule 4 draft and rule 5 draft names come from the clause number of the original agreement. Please correct me if I'm wrong with that. But if that's the case what were rules 1, 2 and 3?

GM is in charge, yes. He should fire those scouts if they keep bringing ducks.

International talent someone else will have to do. But I think it's interesting if you want to argue, some teams spend more getting kids from Venezuela and the Dominican and accordingly spend lower on the draft, so maybe that explains a poorer draft record. End of the day, this is all about talent acquisition no matter how you do it so looking at the draft in a vacuum is acknowledgedly only looking at part of the pie, but it is fairly trackable at how often you draft a player that develops. And personally, I think enough time has passed now to really evaluate what Beinfest is doing. I know I am disappointed with a lot of things, like the entire 05 draft, but looking at it from the big picture of all the drafts of all the teams, the Marlins are not really sticking out as total shitheads like a lot of other organizations. And that's comforting?
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Rangers 02-08 (17, 1/2 rounders)

Stars - Kinsler
Above Average - Danks
Average - Holland, Smoak, Moreland, Borbon, Beaven
Reserves - Teagarden, C. Davis, Boggs
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Rays A+ (8 above average players, another 6-8 normal MLB players), 14, 1/2 round picks
Red Sox A+ (6-7 above average players, and 12-15 MLB players), 23, 1/2 round picks
Braves A (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
Giants A- (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Royals A- (5-6 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Tigers B+ (4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
D-Backs B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Brewers B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB Players)
Dodgers B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Athletics B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal players), 28, 1/2 round picks
Yankees B (3-4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB Players)
Phillies C+ (3-4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Marlins C+ (3 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players), 20, 1/2 round picks
Blue Jays C+ (2 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 18, 1/2 round picks
Reds C (2-4 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players)
Angels C (2-3 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB players)
Padres C (2 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Twins C- (0-1 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 23, 1/2 round picks
Rangers C- (2 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 17, 1/2 round picks
Mariners C- (2 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 12, 1/2 round picks
Astros D+ (2 above average players, and 3-5 normal MLB players)
Orioles D+ (1-2 above average guy, and 4-6 MLB players)
White Sox D+ (1-2 above average guys, 4-6 MLB players)
Mets D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Rockies D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Cleveland F (6-8 normal MLB players)
Cubs F- (4-6 normal MLB players), 16, 1/2 round picks

Nationals/Expos
Cardinals
Pirates
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Nats 02-08, 17, 1/2 round picks

Stars - R. Zimmerman
Above Average - J. Zimmerman
Average - Espinosa, Desmond, Lannan, C. Coredo
Reserves - Bergmann, Balestar, Detwiler, Maxwell

Nats C- (2 above average, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 17, 1/2 round picks
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Cards 02-08, 22 (1/2 round picks)

Stars
Above Average
Average - Rasmus, J. Jay, Motte, C.Perez, Gregerson, B. Wallace
Reserves - McClellen, D. Carpenter, Boggs, A. Craig, B. Anderson, Stavinoha, Barton

Cards C- (0-1 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 22, 1/2 round picks
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Pirates 02-08, 14, 1/2 Round Picks.

Stats - McCutchen
Above Average
Average - N. Walker, M. Capps, P. Maholm, A. Presley, P. Alvarez (generous)
Reserves - B. Lincoln, B.Eldred, Gorzelanny, Bixler, Lillibridge
And some prospects still developing to add some more normal guys

Pirates D (1 above average, and 6-8 normal MLB players), 14, 1/2 round picks
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Rays A+ (8 above average players, another 6-8 normal MLB players), 14, 1/2 round picks
Red Sox A+ (6-7 above average players, and 12-15 MLB players), 23, 1/2 round picks
Braves A (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
Giants A- (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Royals A- (5-6 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)

Tigers B+ (4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players)
D-Backs B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Brewers B+ (4-5 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB Players)
Dodgers B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Athletics B (4 above average players, and 6-8 normal players), 28, 1/2 round picks
Yankees B (3-4 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB Players)

Phillies C+ (3-4 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Blue Jays C+ (2 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 18, 1/2 round picks
Marlins C (2-3 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players), 20, 1/2 round picks
Reds C (2-4 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players)
Angels C (2-3 above average players, and 6-8 Normal MLB players)
Padres C (2 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Nats C- (2 above average, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 17, 1/2 round picks
Cards C- (0-1 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 22, 1/2 round picks
Twins C- (0-1 above average players, and 10-12 normal MLB players), 23, 1/2 round picks
Rangers C- (2 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 17, 1/2 round picks
Mariners C- (2 above average players, and 4-6 normal MLB players), 12, 1/2 round picks

Astros D+ (2 above average players, and 3-5 normal MLB players)
Orioles D+ (1-2 above average guy, and 4-6 MLB players)
White Sox D+ (1-2 above average guys, 4-6 MLB players)
Pirates D (1 above average, and 6-8 normal MLB players), 14, 1/2 round picks
Mets D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Rockies D (1 above average guy, and 6-8 normal MLB players)

Cleveland F (6-8 normal MLB players)
Cubs F- (4-6 normal MLB players), 16, 1/2 round picks
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lowered Marlins from C+ to a C to take away my personal bias that I really believe in Morrison, so downgraded him.
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Needless to say, it's looking with the total number of 1/2 picks I have done for a few of them that the Marlins will be middle of the pack of quantity of picks as well.

The Marlins have been remarkably average in drafting and developing talent, which as mentioned by a few is impressive because (1) they are spending less and at times are opting for the best sign versus the best player, and (2) only two guys, Volstad and Coghlan, make up guys on the Marlins list and if they can one better first rounder every few years and keep drafting the same every other round, they will move up dramatically.

Fun

[Bobbob1313]

Strasburg isn't a star?

[lou]

He wasn't 02-08