Marlins Outright Lefty West

[Bobbob1313]

Not really trying to make a defense of Beinfest, I just thought these were some interesting numbers:

Beinfest's average first-round selection has been 20th.

The average 20th overall pick in a draft has only produced 7.5 career WAR since 1965. Only 16/41 have even produced any positive WAR in their careers, and only 13/41 have produced more career WAR than Volstad 3.3

The Major League Baseball draft is really hard.

[jOOj]

We've gone cheap on signing bonuses and taken more risks. I hope that style goes away, if there's a top notch prospect on the board then pay up.

[Bobbob1313]

We've gone cheap on signing bonuses and taken more risks. I hope that style goes away, if there's a top notch prospect on the board then pay up.

And I think this is the biggest question mark when judging the Marlins in the draft. How much of it is just totally missing on their evaluations and how much of it is having to stick with guys who will sign for slot or under? And will they change that moving forward?

[lou]

And I think this is the biggest question mark when judging the Marlins in the draft. How much of it is just totally missing on their evaluations and how much of it is having to stick with guys who will sign for slot or under? And will they change that moving forward?

Not exactly on point per your comment, but I'd like to see them draft a few more college players and not near exclusive high school pitchers and left handed batters with their premium picks. I'm sure money has something to do with it, but overall they literally blow most of their early picks and I have to imagine the flameout rate for high schoolers, especially pitchers and left handed bats, let alone left handed catchers (facepalm) is somewhat higher.

They are pretty good at evaluating trades as we've seen with Willis/Hanley, and even the Bonifacio, Infante/Dunn deals have relatively worked out, and you really can't fault them for Maybin/Miller even if that didn't work out, but where the hell is the drafting success?

The All Beinfest drafted team 02-08

C - Hayes
1B - Gaby
2B - Coghlan (humor me)
SS - Andino
3B - Dominguez
LF - Morrison
CF - Petersen
RF - Stanton
B - Hermida, Cousins, O. Martinez, Raynor, B. Davis

SP - Johnson, J. Vargas, Volstad, Hand, and Sanabia
RP - Cishek, West, Kensing, Tank, Leroux, Buente, and Hatcher

Stars - Johnson, Stanton
Above Average - Morrison
Solid MLB - Vargas, Gaby
Average MLB - Volstad, Coghlan, Cishek
Bench Material - Hayes, Petersen, Andino, maybe some more or Dominguez shows up

That's 19 picks first two rounds over 7 years, and they have legitimately developed maybe half of a MLB roster. Only 5-7 of whom any of us would consider acceptable starting players. Thank god for them they have found some magic with Uggla, Cody, Cantu, all those free relievers, etc, or this could have been much uglier.

[lou]

Lets do total opposite end of the spectrum

Rays 02-08

C - Jaso
1B - J. Gomes
2B - Brignac
SS - T. Beckham
3B - Longoria
LF - D. Young
CF - BJ Upton
RF - D. Jennings
DH - E. Dukes
B - F. Perez

SP - D. Price, Hellickson, M. Moore, Niemann, W. Davis
RP - Sonnastine, J. Hammel, McGee

I don't know their system enough to pinch out the last few guys on the bench and bullpen

Stars - Longoria, Price, Moore, Hellickson
Above Average - BJ, Jennings, Niemann, W. Davis
Solid MLB - D. Young
Average MLB - J. Gomes
Bench Material - Brignac, Jaso, Hammell, McGee
and Tim Beckham who could skyrocket

I'm taking the liberty of projecting a few of the younger guys, but I don't think anyone is insulted by Moore, Hellickson, and Jennings placement.

I would say this is "amazing," legitimately drafting over half a 25 man roster and having a lot of that being well above average and premier guys at their positions. Especially impressed with 5 legitimate starting pitchers.

I think I'd be happier if the Marlins developed three guys in the above average, and solid categories. Seems a little small as really if the developed 3 more Morrison/Gaby level guys over 7 years, the entire span would look drastically better, but that's still a lot of guys that didn't pan out.

As a side note, Rays have had 14 first round picks 2009-2011 through defections. I am glad they play in the AL East.

[Mainge]

But most of those came while they were picking top 5 every year, no? Or were they good by then?

[Beef]

Upton, Delmon, Niemann, Longoria, Price, Beckham were all top picks. I think all top 3.

[lou]

If the Rays are unfair, I am picking a random team.

2002-2008 Cleveland Indians

1B - B. Mills
3B - Chisenhall
CF - T. Crowe
DH - Kouzmanoff

SP - J. Guthrie, J. Tomlin, J. Sowers, A. Laffey
RP - V. Pestano, A. Miller, J. Lewis, C. Lofgren

Ok that's crazy horrible. Cleveland is worse than us. They got 2 pretty solid SP, Chisenhall who should be good, and Sowers is their own personal Volstad. They had a supplemental pick here and there so the Marlins didn't outrageously have more early draft picks than them, just a few.

This is sad, I have to pick another random.

Giants 2002-2008 (Sandoval undrafted FA 2002)

C - Buster
2B - Frandsen
SS - Bocock, B. Crawford, Burriss
3B - Gillaspie
OF - F. Lewis, Schierholtz, Bowker

SP - Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, J. Sanchez, Correia, C. Hensley
RP - B.Wilson, Romo, Aardsma, Runzler, T. Alderson, Hinshaw

So this is easier to compare to marlins

Stars - Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Buster
Above Average - B. Wilson, Romo (generous, but he's a really good RP)
Solid MLB - J. Sanchez, Correia, Aardsma
Role players - Everyone else

So in comparison not to scroll up, Marlins would have Stanton, Johnson, and Morrison in those top two tiers, and then be able to drop Gaby, J. Vargas, and maybe Volstad/Coghlan/Cishek into there as well as solid guys. So pretty much the difference between the two teams is basically, the Giants have hit on two extra first rounders where the Marlins have not, and they developed an extra above average bullpen arm.

It literally all revolves back into, they got to develop their first round picks better. If Hermida became the .850+ OPS guy we all wanted, one of Tucker/Allison/Sinkbiel/Marceaux/Thompson/West/Kensing/Tank worked out as even a legit # 3 starter and somebody else turned into a legit setup guy, I think you have to give them wild passing grades.

I feel a little silly criticizing as I think this is going to come down to, they needed 3 more good guys over the span of 7 drafts to become a good drafting organization, and that's of course a small number, but at the same time, that's a lot of years of club controlled and arbitration goodness. Massive effect on what you can spend in free agency or what dorks you have playing because you have no one else.

I think my new base line is I want "1.33" starting players per draft and a reserve, and every 2-3 years one of those starting players needs to be a star and one above average. I think that is fair and reasonable.

This means 09-11 terms, I'd be very happy with their drafting if say, Yelich becomes a stud, Fernandez above average, C. James and Realmuto starters, and some collection of Rasmussen/Conley/Canha/Hope/whoever turn into useful relievers or bench guys. I think we would all agree, that would be phenomenal if they could pull that off.

06-08 in their defense also hasn't been terrible. If the above paragraph is an "A," this is easily a "B" and an above average period with Stanton, Coghlan, Cishek, Dominguez (assuming he becomes a decent low end starter .240/.310/.390 and defense vein), Petersen, Hand, and a few other guys like Cousins, Jennings, Hatcher, and maybe Skipworth who could turn into role players.

[lou]

Bored. Another random team, Atlanta 2002-2008.

Stars - McCann, Hanson
Above Average - Heyward, Freeman (being generous, but I have faith in both), Kimbrel, Venters (pretty special RP)
Average - Saltalamacchia, Francouer, M. Harrison, Y. Escobar, C. Morton, J. Devine
Reserves - T. Flowers, J. Schafer, K. Medlen, D. Meyer

I think this is a pretty nice spread for them, assuming of course Heyward/Freeman make it which they will. Three good starting pitchers, six starter level position players, and a really nice bullpen.

This would be the equivalent of Hermida working out, Tucker turning into a dominant 8/9 inning reliever, Volstad becoming a # 3, West becoming a 3/4, Tank becoming a good consistent loogy arm, and someone else becoming a useful RP.

Pretty big difference.
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I'm trying to find a bad team

Royals 02-08

Stars - Greinke, Hosmer (being generous)
Above Average - B. Butler, A. Gordon, Moustakas, D. Duffy (projecting those later 2)
Average - Hochevar, G. Holland, Giavotella, Montgomery
Bench - J.P Howell, Kaaihue, Maier

It's hard to say for sure because a lot of them are young and need to match their projections here, Hochevar needs to solidify himself, and Gordon needs to do it again, but by all accounts the Royals draft better than the Marlins too.

In Marlins term, this is again Hermida working out, Volstad being a #3, someone else being a 3/4/5, and one of Tucker/Tank becoming a premium bullpen arm.
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I think the rankings so far are

Rays A+
Giants A
Braves A-
Royals A-
Marlins TBD
Cleveland F
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Come on Padres. 2002-2008

Stars - Latos
Above - Luebke (being generous)
Average - Headley, Hundley, Venable, T. Stauffer, K.Greene (he was good a few years)
Reserves - Leblanc(!), C. Ramos

I would also like to give them the distinction for blowing their 2007-2008 draft which featured 9 first rounders and 3 second rounders. All they got, is Luebke from those 12 picks. Pathetic.

So this is the equivalent to the Padres not having Mike Stanton, and not having a bunch of bench guys/back end relievers.
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Rays A+ (8 above average players, another half dozen normal MLB players)
Braves A (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and a dozen normal MLB players)
Giants A (6 above average players, two of whom relievers, and a half dozen normal MLB players)
Royals A- (5-6 above average players, and a half dozen normal MLB players)
Marlins TBD (3 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Padres C- (2 above average players, and 6-8 normal MLB players)
Cleveland F (6-8 normal MLB players)

This is going to be fun. If anyone wants to take a team, go for it. It takes like a few minutes just scrolling through the 2002-2008 draft results on MLB.com.

[Bobbob1313]

I think the point is, the Marlins aren't particularly atrocious. They are below average, to be certain, but not abysmal.

But they definitely need to be better.

[Jay]

I think a better point is that the draft is so uncertain and by randomly selecting players you are going to have the same probability of success.

[Ramp]

2002-2008 NY Mets

C - Thole
1B - Ike Davis
2B - Daniel Murphy
SS -
3B -
LF - Nick Evans
CF - Lastings Milledge
RF - Kirk Nieuwenhuis
DH - Mike Carp
B - Lucas Duda

SP - Scott Kazmir, Brian Bannister, Phil Humber, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee
RP - Matt Lindstrom, Bobby Parnell


Stars -
Above Average - Ike Davis
Solid MLB - Scott Kazmir (although I guess he was above for a little), Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese
Average MLB - Mike Carp, Lucas Duda, Matt Lindstrom, Josh Thole
Bench Material - Danny Murphy

This is pretty bad.

[Bobbob1313]

I tend to think that's mostly right, but I wouldnt discount skill entirely.

But there are so many variables that go into the progression of young players that luck plays a gigantic part, to be sure.

For example, how much can you penalize them for Jeff Allison?

[Fritz]

Wasn't it fairly common knowledge that he had a drug problem? They figured getting him out of town would get him out of trouble, no?

[Bobbob1313]

I've never heard that.

Wikipedia doesn't mention anything prior to his first season, but you know.