Josh Johnson 2012: We're Worried

[Valid]

Yeah. I am now very, very worried.

[Swifty]

FA is 4-seam, FT is 2-seam
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Pace is seconds per pitch. 21.5 is the average.

So basically JJ's started throwing less fastballs, both 2 and 4 seam, and slowed down his pace considerably.

Seems like a correctible problem. *fingers crossed*

[MiamiHomer]

I thought today was just a complete lack of control of his off-speed pitches.

[Swifty]

Well obviously talking big picture here.

[MiamiHomer]

Well obviously talking big picture here.

Today was about the only start that he seemed to be hit real hard and it translating to XBH. He had an insanely high BABIP coming in. I thought he was just hit hard today because they were just sitting dead red on fastballs today.

[Swifty]

Yeah, and that's what prompted my initial theory of "mix in the change up more". Fangraphs seems to believe that for the year he's mixing it in a lot (for the record, I don't recall him throwing that many change ups, but whatever, I'll defer to them).

Now it seems the two biggest outliers relative to past success are his fastballs and his pace. If the velocity remains where it was tonight, the first part seems correctible based on his confidence, hopefully the second part comes along with it.

[Erick]

I thought today was just a complete lack of control of his off-speed pitches.

I agree.

[Valid]

Yeah, and that's what prompted my initial theory of "mix in the change up more". Fangraphs seems to believe that for the year he's mixing it in a lot (for the record, I don't recall him throwing that many change ups, but whatever, I'll defer to them).

Now it seems the two biggest outliers relative to past success are his fastballs and his pace. If the velocity remains where it was tonight, the first part seems correctible based on his confidence, hopefully the second part comes along with it.

So you're thinking it's mostly mental with him at this point?

[Swifty]

So you're thinking it's mostly mental with him at this point?

Not mental, per se, because the stuff clearly isn't "there" but I think it's more correctible than, say, making a huge career adjustment because your fastball's velocity just isn't there anymore.
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Because if you just look at the fan graphs pitch %, what we're seeing from JJ this year in terms of "process" is so completely different from him based on his entire career that drastically different results almost have to be expected. As weird as it sounds, that's kind of encouraging to me, at least to the extent someone whose opinion ultimately matters also figures it out and has JJ make the appropriate tweaks (throw the 2-seamer a lot more, work faster).

[Party]

JJ's been throwing to first a lot. Even with two outs.

[Mainge]

JJ's been throwing to first a lot. Even with two outs.

That's the pitching coaches call more often than not.

[HUGG]

Fastball  Freq  MPH  Ball  Call Swing  Foul  Miss   GB   FB  
2011       56% 94.6 31.4% 23.1% 44.7% 21.9%  6.1%  8.0% 4.8% 
2012       47% 93.4 32.7% 19.7% 46.9% 18.5%  8.3%  9.5% 2.7%

Slider    Freq  MPH  Ball  Call Swing  Foul  Miss   GB   FB  
2011       24% 86.4 39.7% 10.3% 49.6% 11.6% 20.5% 10.3% 3.6% 
2012       24% 87.2 39.7%  7.6% 51.2% 12.9% 20.6% 10.5% 1.8%

Curve     Freq  MPH  Ball  Call Swing  Foul  Miss   GB   FB  
2011        8% 78.5 44.6% 24.3% 29.7%  9.5%  6.8%  9.5% 4.1%
2012        9% 79.2 34.0% 32.0% 34.0%  8.0%  4.0% 14.0% 4.0%

Change    Freq  MPH  Ball  Call Swing  Foul  Miss   GB   FB 
2011        7% 87.1 49.3% 14.5% 36.2% 14.5%  7.3%  7.3% 1.5% 
2012       10% 87.7 48.1% 13.5% 38.5% 17.3%  1.9% 11.5% 1.9%

Sinker    Freq  MPH  Ball  Call Swing  Foul  Miss   GB   FB  
2011        4% 93.7 48.8%  9.8% 41.5% 19.5%  2.4%  4.9% 4.9% 
2012       10% 92.9 36.8% 19.3% 38.6% 18.5%  8.8%  9.5% 2.7%

He's actually getting more missed swings than last season.

He's throwing less balls than last season, which either means he's around the plate more or they're swinging at stuff out of the zone more.

[Valid]

2.89 FIP
3.39 xFIP
.366 BABIP (gradually returning to the norm)

Has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts in which he has only allowed 15 hits.

Can we officially say we're not worried anymore?

[Bobbob1313]

We probably should say that.

Swinging strike rate is identical to last season, despite his K rate being down, meaning he'll probably start striking more guys out, which is the only thing that is lagging behind in his peripherals.

I think a 3.00 ERA from here on out is to be expected.

[Mainge]

Which is like two more starts.