Speculation: Yu Darvish: Marlins Don't Submit Bid

[HUGG]

What We Know:

• He's probably (definitely) the best pitcher in the world not currently in MLB.
• He is being posted today (Thursday) as per his agent and Yu Darvish.
• Most likely suitors: Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox
• Marlins have not been linked to him at all. But would you really be surprised at this point?
• He photographs well.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4enYUg1vZwo[/ame]


Having seen him pitch multiple times (not in person obviously) and having followed him for 4+ years now, I feel very confident in saying he will be worth absolutely every penny he gets.

[Chewford]

Does CJ Wilson have an iPhone app?

http://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/id447537738?mt=8

[HUGG]

Can CJ Wilson pull this mustache off?

[Beastie 2.0]

Yu Crazy.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvOHbxBAEN8[/ame]

[Chewford]

This time, having decided that Darvish posting system to use. The announcement will convey to everyone here, because most of the fans. The baseball team Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters I really appreciate it. However, just because it still took a posting procedure can not speak for more at this stage. I would like the conference will be all fixed. Yes Darvish

-Thoughts of Yu

[Big Z]

Can Chewie take a quick flight to Japan and give us a scouting report?

I've never liked investing in Japanese players, but this one seems good. Only bad thing is we don't have an Asian market down here.

[Marlins11]

Let's get him.

[HUGG]

Can Chewie take a quick flight to Japan and give us a scouting report?

I've never liked investing in Japanese players, but this one seems good. Only bad thing is we don't have an Asian market down here.

fastball, cutter, slider, curve, and the dreaded shuuto

fastball sits 91-93, usually hits 95+ 7-8 times a game. Still hits 95 after 100 pitches with same regularity. Has hit 95 after pitch 140 multiple times. Cutter sits the same as his fastball. Breaks a ton of bats.

slider in the low 80s, he throws 2 different ones. One breaks horizontally, one breaks vertically. When it's on, he's pretty unhittable.

his curve is a slow curve 65-70mph. He throws it to keep guys honest. Maybe 6-7 times a game.


Let me see if I can find one written by someone more qualified than me.
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Stuff

The righthander works with a deep array of pitches, common for top Japanese hurlers. He throws four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs and compliments them with at least three different breaking balls. I've also seen reports of Darvish mixing in a change-up and the ever elusive shuuto, often referred to as a 'gyroball' in the US, where the batter sees a dot and thus reads breaking ball but the pitch actually stays straight -- think of it like a backup slider.

Darvish has well-above-average arm strength. His fastball sat 151-155 km/h or 93-95 MPH for you non-metric types out there. Able to hit his spots around the knees while occasionally going upstairs for effect, Darvish has advanced control of his fastball coupled with the ability to sink, cut, or run the ball inside. His fastball doesn't move a ton, but it does move and move late. Everything Darvish throws off his fastball is heavy. Guys like him keep bat makers in business; Darvish will leave many big leaguers with toothpicks in their hands.

A couple different forms of slider are evident in Darvish's arsenal; one with more horizontal break, one vertical. He showed very good control, able to throw sliders for strikes, utilizing them most often early in the count. Occasionally he would sharpen the break and throw the pitch out of zone with two-strikes. When he did, the results were nasty.

He'll work in a very slow curve ball in the low 60 MPH range, just to keep batters off-balance. If you're squaring off against Darvish, you have to be ready for the ball to come in at pretty much any speed.

I didn't see a below-average pitch from Darvish. He doesn't have super, elite stuff like a Verlander but everything is good. I'd grade his fastball a 65, he seemed to have the most confidence in it. He probably has four or five other pitches that are 50-55 grades on the scouting scale to go along with 60+ command.

Assorted Thoughts

His pitch sequencing impressed me. Darvish seems to have a real plan off attack. It's an aggressive plan. He mixes speeds very well, especially early in the count then goes for the kill by running a fastball at your knuckles. He didn't pitch around guys, but wasn't reckless. There were a few fastballs in the Seibu game that hung over the middle that he might not be able to get away with at the MLB level but he seems like the kind of pitcher who'll figure out what works quickly and adapt.

Darvish is a really excellent fielder. A two-time Gold Glove winner in the NPB he'd immediately be one of the best fielding pitchers in the bigs upon his arrival.

There's a good amount of functional deception in his delivery. By that I mean, he seems to hide the ball well without killing all efficiency in his mechanics.

He utilizes his lower half very well, excellent hip rotation. If we've taught you nothing else about baseball mechanics it should be that hip rotation IS power.

I could nitpick a few small things in his delivery, but I don't see the point. He grew up in a different culture, with a different way of teaching mechanics. It's all about what works for you, this is what works for his body. He's young, healthy, durable. He repeats well. He's athletic.

Darvish's statistical profile is awfully similar to Daisuke Matsuzaka. While Dice-K's struggles in recent years may taint that comparison in the minds of some, don't forget that Matsuzaka was worth 7.2 WAR over his first two seasons in Boston.

The terrific Eno Sarris over at FanGraphs points out an important difference between the two Japanese hurlers:

"Darvish has avoided the notorious overwork that plagued Matsuzaka’s amateur and early pro careers. Like Matsuzaka’s teenage years, young Darvish pitched at Koshien, Japan’s national high school baseball tournament. Unlike Matsuzaka, he doesn’t quite have a 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game on his resume. Darvish’s longest outing was a 166-pitch game that he lost on a walk-off home run in the 10th inning. Also, unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish was eased into his pro career: he threw 94.1 innings and 149.2 innings in his first two pro years. Matsuzaka, by contrast, threw 180 innings as an 18 year-old rookie — 347.2 in his first two seasons — and set a career high with 240.1 innings in his third. In essence, Darvish has fired fewer bullets."

Conclusion

I don't see Yu Darvish as an ace. I think the upgrade in competition will knock him off that vaunted perch. That said, I think he's going to be a really good MLB pitcher. I'd peg him as a 4.0 WAR starter for next season, and there's certainly potential for him to exceed those numbers. I see a well-above-average all around starter, a No. 2 guy on a first-division club. I'd be displeased if my favorite club committed nine-figures to procure his services but he has age, production, stuff, command, and poise on his side to score a major deal

http://projectprospect.com/article/2...couting-report

A really good #2 is what I peg him as. He's not an ace.

[MiamiHomer]

Hasn't been anything on what his price tag might be. Possibly will learn more today.

[HUGG]

The posting fee is the issue. I'm sure if he was just a free agent, the Marlins would be in on him. But they can't pay a 70-80 million (some have said 100 mil) posting fee on top of what it would take to sign him.

Of course I've said they couldn't do lots of things they've done so far, but as much as I want it to happen, I'd be stunned.

Texas and Toronto are considered the favorites.
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Check that, the $100 mil number is the expected total commitment (posting fee + contract).

[Ralph]

Anyone know how the posting fee is paid? Is it over time or a lump sum?
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If his posting fee is higher than Matsuzaka I'll be surprised. I don't doubt he's better but I won't believe it till I see it.

[Omar]

Dice-K's struggles might drop the price a bit, so if that's the case maybe we can go in on him

[Jorge18]

I saw some highlights of him on MLB TV and his stuff seems sick!

[HUGG]

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman
Al exec predicts darvish will be "100 million dollar man" counting posting fee and contract

We were willing to do it for CJ.


(and Yu will be better over the next 5 years)

[MiamiHomer]

Clark Spencer said the Marlins won't be in on him.