Hyde: Marlins' Buildup to Stadium Lacks Wins

[Beef]

This Kthulu coming up to bite the Marlins. They earned it and now it is here.

- Dave Hyde

[Swifty]

This skid is absolutely not the culmination of years of bad moves.


The skid is a culmination of several losses in a short span.

Our paper thin depth, more or less one dimensional lineup and fragile, albeit intermittently brilliant rotation, is absolutely the culmination of poor trades, free agent signings and a general lack of foresight when it comes to building a cohesive and complementary roster. That's a big part of this stretch of badness.

[Namaste]

Our paper thin depth, more or less one dimensional lineup and fragile, albeit intermittently brilliant rotation, is absolutely the culmination of poor trades, free agent signings and a general lack of foresight when it comes to building a cohesive and complementary roster. That's a big part of this stretch of badness.

No.

It may be a minute part of it but the BIG part of this stretch of badness is really really really really really bad luck. Plain and simple.

1 run games. The probability of losing that many 1 run games in a row must be ridiculous.

Someone run the numbers.

[Swifty]

Look, I agree with you that bad luck is a big part of it, but then by that same token, you're also are allowing the statement to be made that teams that have exceptionally bad losing seasons are not bad, they're just unlucky.

This squad, without JJ, with a diminished Hanley and inefficient Ricky is a 70 win squad at best. It doesn't matter "how" they lose those games, more or less, they should. Maybe not 19/20 but certainly 90 out of 162.

[Erick]

I think, at the end of the day, the luck just so happened to even out really quickly.

It's been a stretch of some bad luck, but you also have to take into account the tremendous stretch of good luck they had earlier in the year.

Despite the 12 consecutive one-run losses, the team is still about .500 (not really sure of the record, as I don't really keep track of it) in one-run games.

Overall, the team just hasn't been good.

[Bobbob1313]

Look, I agree with you that bad luck is a big part of it, but then by that same token, you're also are allowing the statement to be made that teams that have exceptionally bad losing seasons are not bad, they're just unlucky.

No.

This team went through a stretch where they went 5-23 games with 12 straight losses in one-run games.

Like I said, if we go 6-6 in those one-run games, we're 3 games back of the Wild Card. We had a shitty month, without JJ and mostly without Hanley. If we went 11-17 over that stretch instead of 5-23, it's just a bad month, but it's not a season killer. The Braves went 12-15 over the course of April. Months like that happen sometime in baseball.

They had a bad month because of some depth issues sure, and because the entire team stopped hitting. Even with those things, this isn't a .217 WP team. Trying to pin this last month on Beinfest is trying way too hard.

[Swifty]

So then no bad team is ever bad, merely unlucky...?

[Bobbob1313]

I think, at the end of the day, the luck just so happened to even out really quickly.

It's been a stretch of some bad luck, but you also have to take into account the tremendous stretch of good luck they had earlier in the year.

Despite the 12 consecutive one-run losses, the team is still about .500 (not really sure of the record, as I don't really keep track of it) in one-run games.

Overall, the team just hasn't been good.

That's not how regression works.

You don't flip a coin 10 times, get 10 heads, and then expect to get 10 tails.

If you win 12 straight one run games, you don't expect to lose 12 in a row because of regression. Regression doesn't have a memory.

It's shit luck.
--------------------

So then no bad team is ever bad, merely unlucky...?

Yes, exactly.

[Erick]

That's not how regression works.

You don't flip a coin 10 times, get 10 heads, and then expect to get 10 tails.

If you win 12 straight one run games, you don't expect to lose 12 in a row because of regression. Regression doesn't have a memory.

It's shit luck.
--------------------

You can't blame everything on luck.

The team has a -44 run differential; it's not a good team.

[Bobbob1313]

You can't blame everything on luck.

The team has a -44 run differential; it's not a good team.

Even with as bad as we played since the SFG series, our Pythagorean Expected record based on run differential was 10.4 wins and 17.6 losses. We underperformed that by 5+ games.

If we were 39-38 right now, would Dave Hyde had written this article?


Blaming this stretch on Beinfest is absurd.

[Erick]

Even with as bad as we played since the SFG series, our Pythagorean Expected record based on run differential was 10.4 wins and 17.6 losses. We underperformed that by 5+ games.

If we were 39-38 right now, would Dave Hyde had written this article?

How is our Pythagorean record over .500 with a run differential of -44?

[Bobbob1313]

How is our Pythagorean record over .500 with a run differential of -44?

Never said anything about our overall Pythagorean record.

I said over that 28 game stretch, we should have won between 5-6 more games than we did.

We over performed our Pythagorean record for a while, but like I said, regression doesn't work to where if you over performed it for a while you are destined to underperform it.

Our true talent level based on how we've played right now is probably around where our overall record is, yes.

But we were 9 games over .500 at one point, and then lost 23 of 28 games.

And this article, and Stimpson are talking about were this stretch in particular being the result of poor management. That's why we're talking about the stretch.

[Party]

Doesn't poor management open the door to stretches like this? If Beinfest builds a team that isn't good it will be prone to long stretches of being horrible. Absolving Beinfest of any fault for this stretch is absurd.

[Mainge]

I don't believe anyone is completely absolving him of blame.

[Swifty]

I believe bobbob is, but I also believe if you ask him he will say he is not, just that you can't underscore how much bad luck factors into it. I believe I would then say that mindset doesn't allow anyone to be truly accountable, and I believe the two of us would go back and forth. And I also believe by this summary we've saved a decent amount of posts and time.