Marlins Trade Deadline Thread: Comes And Goes Without A Move

[Party]

In Soviet Russia statistics withdraw you?

[CrimsonCane]

I had a Russian professor who was difficult to understand and I withdrew.

I'll probably end up taking it again with somebody else just because I hate knowing that I can't pass something. Hopefully it's more interesting next time.

If you don't like your professor, here's some colleges who have intro to statistics lectures available for free online.

Introductory Probability and Statistics for Business - UC Berkeley

Introduction to Statistics - UC Berkeley

Statistics - Carnegie Mellon

[Miamarlin21]

Cc my teacher likes teaching and he's a big baseball fan so a couple of examples have been about baseball. I'm just going to go to his office hours and try my hardest.

[emkayseven]

make sure you bring a david bell baseball with you ifyaknowwhatimean

ifyadontthatscooltoo

[Big Z]

MLBTR-

The Rangers have asked the Marlins about their pitching, though the sides have yet to exchange names for possible trades, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Talks are “not far along” now, but the clubs had more serious discussions about pitching at last year’s Winter Meetings.

Derek Holland pitched a shutout last night, leading the Rangers to their eighth consecutive win. Before their hot streak, they were searching for starting pitching and relief help.

Leo Nunez, who is arbitration eligible in 2012, Brian Sanches and Edward Mujica are among the trade candidates on Florida's pitching staff. For more on those names and others, check out this piece by Tim Dierkes, which explains what will happen if the Marlins - now fifth in the NL East with a 44-48 record - become sellers.

JPMorosi

The Rangers have checked in with the Marlins about their pitching but no names have been exchanged, major-league sources say.
The talks are “not far along,” one source said, but there is a good fit between the clubs. Texas has one of the richest farm systems in baseball, and the Marlins’ pattern of dealing arbitration-eligible veterans for prospects is well-established.
Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez and closer Leo Nuñez will receive substantial raises through salary arbitration in 2012, after which they are scheduled to enter free agency. Since the right-handers are enjoying good seasons, this might be the optimal time for Florida to move one or both.
Starter Ricky Nolasco is another trade candidate. But he signed a three-year, $26.5 million contract extension before this season, so the Marlins have control of him for longer than Sanchez or Nuñez.
It’s worth noting that the Marlins and Rangers engaged in more serious trade discussions – about pitching – during last December’s winter meetings.
The Rangers’ need for pitching may not be as intense as it was earlier in the season. They have won eight in a row, following a complete-game shutout by 24-year-old lefty Derek Holland on Thursday night.

[Valid]

I can't see us moving Sanchez or Nolasco.

I also don't see how it's an "optimal time" to move our second-best starting pitcher, as we're moving into the new stadium next year.

[Big Z]

I read somewhere yesterda that Anibal would cost us more than JJ (if signed), because we will not be buying his arbitration years.

I'm down for a Rasmus - Sanchez swap. I'm not too sure of what TX has to offer, although their farm is talent rich. Not sure trading one of our top SP for spec(s) will be too smart of a move, considering our reputation.

[Valid]

The whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.

[Big Z]

The whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.

It is, but that's the word around town. Maybe it's true, maybe it's BS.

If you're going to make a move it has to make an impact now, not 2-3 years from now.

The Cantu, Cody, Uggla thing was fine.

Cantu was playing like shit, Cody was blocking Maybin and Uggla was offered a huge deal and rejected it. Our returns for Ugz have made an impact right away, infante is playing better than Uggla and Dunn is going to be a great asset for a very long time. We also acquired Poveda and Reed for Cantu (who was garbage). Reed can make an impact as soon as he recovers from TJ.

I think the main talent you try to trade now is:

Anibal, Ceda, Nuñez and maybe Cogz / Infante.

I would love to see what Cogz can get us, maybe in a package with Nuñez.

[lou]

I read somewhere yesterda that Anibal would cost us more than JJ (if signed), because we will not be buying his arbitration years.

I'm down for a Rasmus - Sanchez swap. I'm not too sure of what TX has to offer, although their farm is talent rich. Not sure trading one of our top SP for spec(s) will be too smart of a move, considering our reputation.

Well, for next year JJ makes just under $14, and through arbitration Anibal will make somewhere $7-9. If you mean a longterm contract, Sanchez would probably get $45-50 range over 4 years, which is more than Johnson. Depends on which way you view it.
--------------------

The whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.

Whose also had two major arm surgeries in the last 5 years,. It's very arguable to say, Anibal will never be more valuable than he is right now. I don't think it's a money question. This team can afford Anibal's $7-9 arbitration number next year. But can they team increase their overall organizational assets by moving him?

I think if they can get Rasmus or a mega 3 near ready prospect package from Texas, the answer is yes. There are some pitchers in free agency (Wilson, E. Jackson, Buerhle) that this team can bring in to cover innings.

It really depends on the deal. If the Marlins get exactly what they want, they'll move him. If they don't it's not a dump scenario of take the best deal.

[Big Z]

Well, for next year JJ makes just under $14, and through arbitration Anibal will make somewhere $7-9. If you mean a longterm contract, Sanchez would probably get $45-50 range over 4 years, which is more than Johnson. Depends on which way you view it.

Yup, I'm speaking long-term.

Tigers are reportedly looking for a top-tier SP too now, according to B.Olney. God I would hate to deal with them again, it brings nightmares.

[lou]

I think the main talent you try to trade now is:

Anibal, Ceda, Nuñez and maybe Cogz / Infante.

Ceda, really? What has he done.

The must trades are Infante and Dobbs. Absolute no brainers there.

The trade if you get exactly what you want are Nunez, Choate, Mujica (big arb coming for a middle reliever but all relievers are replaceable if ones having a premier year), and one of Anibal/Nolasco if it's really substantial in compensation.

If you acquire a longterm CF through any of the above, Coghlan gets into that second category.

[emkayseven]

The whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.

Again, Anibal is not borderline elite. We as baseball fans need to change our way of thinking in this era of poor offense. Even after last night's solid game his ERA+ is 110. That's very good, but not close to "borderline elite" - for comparison's sake, JJ led the league last year with a 180 and this year before his injury he was at 239 (!). This year's leaderboard, just to show you how far back Anibal is:

1.	Jurrjens (ATL)	205
2.	Weaver (LAA)	199
3.	Beckett (BOS)	178
4.	Verlander (DET)	176
5.	Vogelsong (SFG)	170
6.	Hamels (PHI)	165
7.	Gonzalez (OAK)	158
8.	Hanson (ATL)	157
9.	Halladay (PHI)	156
10.	Shields (TBR)	153

So we have that. He's not borderline elite but he is very solid middle of the rotation/borderline every-now-and-then All Star material.

There is the question of durability:

He’s been healthy the last year and a half, but he’s struggled to bounce back on normal rest this season. On four days’ rest, he has a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts. On five or more days’ rest, he has a 2.01 ERA in six starts.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...nibal-sanchez/

As well you know a 4.57 ERA is not good at all nowadays. That's a bit alarming given the injury history. Frontline starters should be able to go on short rest, definitely on regular rest. Anibal is thriving on extra rest.

And then there's the money factor. No, money will not be as large of a factor as it has been in the past. But, like it is for all teams, it is still a factor. Time after time long term pitching contracts have proven to be risky, and at this point with Anibal we are not getting a discount. He hasn't had a good relationship with the FO in the past and we are buying out only 1 arbitration year which isn't very attractive from a player's standpoint.

Finally, you have to weigh the importance of pitching vs. offense. Yes, pitching wins ballgames, but in reality you are getting 35 games - at most, especially given Anibal's tendency to need extra rest - of solid but not spectacular pitching. With a hitter you are getting 150 games. When you talk about Rasmus he's a guy that:

A) Has proven he can hit at the MLB level;
B) Is still young and has much more room for improvement;
C) Is cost controlled for longer than Anibal and allows us to invest money in another position or back into the rotation;
D) Is at a tremendous position of need within the organization, one where we've failed to get production for years and years and have no upcoming prospects at

As I said earlier in the thread Rasmus's OPS+ shows that he is as much above an average hitter as Anibal's ERA+ shows he is above an average pitcher. If you can get Colby Rasmus in a deal including Anibal Sanchez, you do it.

There is no reason to trade Anibal for prospects and if you look at the rumors swirling around no one has been suggesting that. It is for major league talent, which this team desperately needs. Yes, our starting pitching is weak and thin, but in an era where guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Paul Maholm are All Stars and guys like Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols hit well below their career averages, you make the trade every time.

[Big Z]

Ceda, really? What has he done.

The must trades are Infante and Dobbs. Absolute no brainers there.

The trade if you get exactly what you want are Nunez, Choate, Mujica (big arb coming for a middle reliever but all relievers are replaceable if ones having a premier year), and one of Anibal/Nolasco if it's really substantial in compensation.

If you acquire a longterm CF through any of the above, Coghlan gets into that second category.

I'm saying because he's having a big year in AAA. Not sure what his future plans are here.

[Ramp]

You don't trade Ceda. He's making nothing and his plans are to be closer here sooner than later.

You only trade Ceda if he's the missing piece should we go after a Jose Reyes (not at all suggesting we are doing anything of the sort)