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Marlins Trade Deadline Thread: Comes And Goes Without A Move
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Originally posted by Erick View PostI had a Russian professor who was difficult to understand and I withdrew.
I'll probably end up taking it again with somebody else just because I hate knowing that I can't pass something. Hopefully it's more interesting next time.
Introductory Probability and Statistics for Business - UC Berkeley
Introduction to Statistics - UC Berkeley
Statistics - Carnegie Mellon
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MLBTR-
The Rangers have asked the Marlins about their pitching, though the sides have yet to exchange names for possible trades, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Talks are “not far along” now, but the clubs had more serious discussions about pitching at last year’s Winter Meetings.
Derek Holland pitched a shutout last night, leading the Rangers to their eighth consecutive win. Before their hot streak, they were searching for starting pitching and relief help.
Leo Nunez, who is arbitration eligible in 2012, Brian Sanches and Edward Mujica are among the trade candidates on Florida's pitching staff. For more on those names and others, check out this piece by Tim Dierkes, which explains what will happen if the Marlins - now fifth in the NL East with a 44-48 record - become sellers.
The Rangers have checked in with the Marlins about their pitching but no names have been exchanged, major-league sources say.
The talks are “not far along,” one source said, but there is a good fit between the clubs. Texas has one of the richest farm systems in baseball, and the Marlins’ pattern of dealing arbitration-eligible veterans for prospects is well-established.
Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez and closer Leo Nuñez will receive substantial raises through salary arbitration in 2012, after which they are scheduled to enter free agency. Since the right-handers are enjoying good seasons, this might be the optimal time for Florida to move one or both.
Starter Ricky Nolasco is another trade candidate. But he signed a three-year, $26.5 million contract extension before this season, so the Marlins have control of him for longer than Sanchez or Nuñez.
It’s worth noting that the Marlins and Rangers engaged in more serious trade discussions – about pitching – during last December’s winter meetings.
The Rangers’ need for pitching may not be as intense as it was earlier in the season. They have won eight in a row, following a complete-game shutout by 24-year-old lefty Derek Holland on Thursday night.Last edited by Big Z; 07-15-2011, 10:20 AM.
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I read somewhere yesterda that Anibal would cost us more than JJ (if signed), because we will not be buying his arbitration years.
I'm down for a Rasmus - Sanchez swap. I'm not too sure of what TX has to offer, although their farm is talent rich. Not sure trading one of our top SP for spec(s) will be too smart of a move, considering our reputation.
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Originally posted by Valid View PostThe whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.
If you're going to make a move it has to make an impact now, not 2-3 years from now.
The Cantu, Cody, Uggla thing was fine.
Cantu was playing like shit, Cody was blocking Maybin and Uggla was offered a huge deal and rejected it. Our returns for Ugz have made an impact right away, infante is playing better than Uggla and Dunn is going to be a great asset for a very long time. We also acquired Poveda and Reed for Cantu (who was garbage). Reed can make an impact as soon as he recovers from TJ.
I think the main talent you try to trade now is:
Anibal, Ceda, Nuñez and maybe Cogz / Infante.
I would love to see what Cogz can get us, maybe in a package with Nuñez.Last edited by Big Z; 07-15-2011, 10:50 AM.
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Originally posted by Big Z View PostI read somewhere yesterda that Anibal would cost us more than JJ (if signed), because we will not be buying his arbitration years.
I'm down for a Rasmus - Sanchez swap. I'm not too sure of what TX has to offer, although their farm is talent rich. Not sure trading one of our top SP for spec(s) will be too smart of a move, considering our reputation.
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Originally posted by Valid View PostThe whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.
I think if they can get Rasmus or a mega 3 near ready prospect package from Texas, the answer is yes. There are some pitchers in free agency (Wilson, E. Jackson, Buerhle) that this team can bring in to cover innings.
It really depends on the deal. If the Marlins get exactly what they want, they'll move him. If they don't it's not a dump scenario of take the best deal.
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Originally posted by lou View PostWell, for next year JJ makes just under $14, and through arbitration Anibal will make somewhere $7-9. If you mean a longterm contract, Sanchez would probably get $45-50 range over 4 years, which is more than Johnson. Depends on which way you view it.
Tigers are reportedly looking for a top-tier SP too now, according to B.Olney. God I would hate to deal with them again, it brings nightmares.
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Originally posted by Big Z View PostI think the main talent you try to trade now is:
Anibal, Ceda, Nuñez and maybe Cogz / Infante.
The must trades are Infante and Dobbs. Absolute no brainers there.
The trade if you get exactly what you want are Nunez, Choate, Mujica (big arb coming for a middle reliever but all relievers are replaceable if ones having a premier year), and one of Anibal/Nolasco if it's really substantial in compensation.
If you acquire a longterm CF through any of the above, Coghlan gets into that second category.
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Originally posted by Valid View PostThe whole cost thing isn't supposed to be an issue anymore (not too big of one, anyway) now that we have the new stadium. Getting rid of a borderline elite pitcher because of money the year before we move in would be pretty dumb.
Code:1. Jurrjens (ATL) 205 2. Weaver (LAA) 199 3. Beckett (BOS) 178 4. Verlander (DET) 176 5. Vogelsong (SFG) 170 6. Hamels (PHI) 165 7. Gonzalez (OAK) 158 8. Hanson (ATL) 157 9. Halladay (PHI) 156 10. Shields (TBR) 153
There is the question of durability:
He’s been healthy the last year and a half, but he’s struggled to bounce back on normal rest this season. On four days’ rest, he has a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts. On five or more days’ rest, he has a 2.01 ERA in six starts.
As well you know a 4.57 ERA is not good at all nowadays. That's a bit alarming given the injury history. Frontline starters should be able to go on short rest, definitely on regular rest. Anibal is thriving on extra rest.
And then there's the money factor. No, money will not be as large of a factor as it has been in the past. But, like it is for all teams, it is still a factor. Time after time long term pitching contracts have proven to be risky, and at this point with Anibal we are not getting a discount. He hasn't had a good relationship with the FO in the past and we are buying out only 1 arbitration year which isn't very attractive from a player's standpoint.
Finally, you have to weigh the importance of pitching vs. offense. Yes, pitching wins ballgames, but in reality you are getting 35 games - at most, especially given Anibal's tendency to need extra rest - of solid but not spectacular pitching. With a hitter you are getting 150 games. When you talk about Rasmus he's a guy that:
A) Has proven he can hit at the MLB level;
B) Is still young and has much more room for improvement;
C) Is cost controlled for longer than Anibal and allows us to invest money in another position or back into the rotation;
D) Is at a tremendous position of need within the organization, one where we've failed to get production for years and years and have no upcoming prospects at
As I said earlier in the thread Rasmus's OPS+ shows that he is as much above an average hitter as Anibal's ERA+ shows he is above an average pitcher. If you can get Colby Rasmus in a deal including Anibal Sanchez, you do it.
There is no reason to trade Anibal for prospects and if you look at the rumors swirling around no one has been suggesting that. It is for major league talent, which this team desperately needs. Yes, our starting pitching is weak and thin, but in an era where guys like Ryan Vogelsong and Paul Maholm are All Stars and guys like Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols hit well below their career averages, you make the trade every time.Originally posted by Madman81Most of the people in the world being dumb is not a requirement for you to be among their ranks.
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Originally posted by lou View PostCeda, really? What has he done.
The must trades are Infante and Dobbs. Absolute no brainers there.
The trade if you get exactly what you want are Nunez, Choate, Mujica (big arb coming for a middle reliever but all relievers are replaceable if ones having a premier year), and one of Anibal/Nolasco if it's really substantial in compensation.
If you acquire a longterm CF through any of the above, Coghlan gets into that second category.
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