Christian Yelich, OF

[Bobbob1313]

The biggest selling point for Christian Yelich as a solid Fantasy option is also one of the arguments against his breakout potential; he just doesn't hit the ball in the air much. Yelich produces solid natural power when he connects (12.7 HR/FB, 79th out of 234 players from 2013-2014), which gives you room to dream on him developing more, but few players have put the ball in the air less often than Yelich since he entered the league.

He is taking things to an even further extreme this season, and it is starting to become a problem. Of the 32 balls Yelich has put in play, 26 have been hit on the ground. Groundballs aren't bad, per se, especially for a player with Yelich's speed and bat control, but they are obviously going to limit how much power you can hit for. Groundballs rarely go for extra bases, and obviously never go over the wall, after all.

Yelich is also striking out more than ever, while posting a 12.3 percent swinging strike rate, a dangerous mark for a hitter without the power to justify much swing-and-miss. He is 1 for 10 with five strikeouts against left-handed pitchers as well, though all five of the strikeouts have come against the kind of kind of lefty-killing relievers that he should be expected to see less of moving forward; just 3.3 percent of his plate appearances last season came against left-handed relievers, compared to 12.2 percent so far. The increase in his strikeout rate looks a lot like the result of small-sample size at this point.

He also has just a .281 BABIP through 11 games, a number that will almost certainly go up from here, so it's not all bad news for Yelich. However, If you were hoping for Yelich's power to emerge, his play so far isn't a promising sign. However, his track record to this point should matter more than this two week stretch, so Yelich makes some sense as a buy-low candidate, even if he's been something of a mess to this point.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/fantasy...aseball-trends

I wrote a little about him today from a Fantasy perspective.

[Bobbob1313]

Among all players with at least 20 at-bats tracked by the Statcast cameras, Yelich ranks dead last in average batted-ball distance at 59.7 feet. Next lowest is Jose Iglesias, at 71.1 feet. He's never gonna hit for power.

Paradoxically, he ranks 28th in averaged batted-ball velocity. So, high BABIP should be expected!

(That's from BaseballSavant.com, which seems to have a mostly complete record, but everything, unfortunately. Really hope MLB releases that data.)

[HUGG]

Hitting 2nd for Jupiter today

[Todd]

Is it too early to worry about Yelich going forward?

[Jay]

I'd start to worry but he's still been getting unlucky and his contract is very friendly moving fowards. He's also been king less and walking more lately. His swinging strike rate is concerning but it's annoying to break that up on my phone. Defensive metrics also aren't liking him this year which further decreases his WAR.

[emkayseven]

Jim Bowden picked him as one of his breakout bats for 2016:

Christian Yelich, LFMiami Marlins
Age: 24 | 2015 WAR: 3.5


Yelich has one of the best left-handed swings in baseball, but his offensive production to date hasn't matched that special swing. Here are three reasons I think it will in 2016:


1. The Marlins are lowering the fences at Marlins Park.


2. Barry Bonds is the Marlins' new hitting coach, and if anyone could help Yelich get the most out of his sweet lefty swing, it should be Bonds. He'll work on teaching Yelich to recognize and turn on the inside fastball and drive a low-and-away pitch to left field with power.


3. At 24, Yelich is approaching the prime years of his career after using the first two and a half seasons to mature, grow as a player and gain physical strength.


Yelich already has a Gold Glove Award on his mantle (2014), but when his power arrives, we'll see him in the All-Star Game, and he'll be a legit Silver Slugger candidate.

http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-offi.../post?id=12085

[thatnewguy]

Assuming of course that he does eventually develop in a home run hitter. I have no doubts that he'll continue to fill out his body and get stronger as a result, but from just watching him over the last three years, it's pretty obvious that his swing (especially when he's hitting well) is a line-drive, "single into left-center" kinda swing. He'll run into a few and the shorter/smaller fences will benefit him, but let's relax on the 20 home run projections. I think it's more likely he's hitting well into the .300s for his career rather than he ever develops a big power swing.

[HUGG]

He's hit 3 HR in his career at Marlins Park. He's been about a 15hr a year guy if he played all his games other places. 20hr isn't THAT big a stretch if the fence changes have an impact.

[nny]

I remember someone posting about his GB% and how basically no one hits for power with those rates. Hard to hit a ground ball over the fence after all.

[HUGG]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/chr...unique-hitter/

- - - - - - - - - -

Away HR/FB: 18.7% - 17hr in 752pa
Home HR/FB: 4.5% - 3hr in 706pa

[emkayseven]

While it's dramatic to use what is most commonly known as the official label for Apollo 13, applying the "successful failure" tagline to Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich helps to illustrate just how divided views are on him. Yelich might have developed into a steady presence in the Miami outfield for some, but there are others who refer back to his initial scouting and projections as a source of disappointment, rather than any sort of guidance.

With now two full Major League seasons under his belt, Yelich has a solid 4.4-WAR season to his credit in one of those seasons (2014). Injuries and some summer struggles, however, saw him fall to just a 2.3 figure in 2015, resulting in some already closing the book on what Christian Yelich could possibly be.


And to a certain extent, that's understandable, especially when you take into account what some have projected Yelich to be from the outset. An excerpt from Baseball Prospectus' scouting report (which includes some first-hand reporting from a Marlins front office source) reads:


Christian Yelich has one of the purest swings in the minors, a short and powerful stroke despite the arm length. Yelich creates well above average bat speed, and as he continues to mature and learns the nuances of power, his doubles will start to turn into home runs and he could be a true middle-of-the-lineup threat. He shows good pitch-recognition skills, and his bat-to-ball ability is on par with the best in the minors, so he should be able to hit for a high average.


And then that quote from the front office source, in the same BP scouting report, follows:


I think the hit tool is a 70 and I think the power shows up down the line in the 25-plus range with a ton of doubles. He’s a tough out and he’s just going to get better when he’s forced to face better.


That's obviously high praise for Yelich from a more than reputable source, in Baseball Prospectus. But the perhaps-too-ambitious scouting on Yelich doesn't necessarily end there. SB Nation's own Minor League Ball had their own bit on Yelich back in May of 2012, noting the following:


Although he isn't likely to develop into an overwhelming home run masher, Yelich should hit for average, get on base at a good clip, and produce above-average power. His strikeout rate has been creeping upward as he ascends the ladder, but his power output is increasing as well, and he's still drawing walks at a substantial clip.


While that's only a pair of scouting reports, and a lot of things can change significantly in the nearly five years that have passed since Yelich was drafted, they both note one significant aspect of Yelich's game to which naysayers refer when criticizing Yelich: the power aspect. He's hit just 16 combined home runs in his two seasons in Miami, so calling him a disappointment in that respect wouldn't be a stretch at all. He hasn't come close to living up to those expectations. It may also be important to note that his strikeout rate is likely higher than anticipated as well, with a 19.2 percent mark that ranked 16th among National League outfielders.


Therein lies the primary motive for those who refer to Christian Yelich as anything resembling a failure. His power has been nonexistent, and he strikes out more than expected. But should we think any less of Yelich because of this, or simply think of him in a different way? He's obviously not the player that he was expected to be, in some respects, but as we examine what he has become, is there a way to get him closer to what he was originally thought to be?


To call Yelich a disappointment, a failure, or any word with a similarly negative connotation would simply be unreasonable. In 2015, a year in which he dealt with injury and a May where he hit only .231 (his worth average in any month of the year), he still managed to post that 2.3 WAR, which ranked 17th among NL outfielders. His .366 on-base percentage placed sixth among that group, and his 117 wRC+ was a top-10 figure.


Going back to 2014, his first full season at the big league level, Yelich finished with a 4.4 WAR that made its way into the top 10, ranking ninth among NL OF, an identical-to-2015 117 wRC+, and a .362 OBP that ranked seventh. From a rough statistical standpoint, Yelich is certainly no slouch, let alone any sort of failure. But what exactly does he do specifically that makes him as successful in the respects that he is?


For one, he hits the ball hard. His 32.8 Hard% ranked 12th among NL OF last year, while his 22.5% line drive rate was seventh among the same group. He also hit opposite field with the best of 'em, with a 27.7% oppo rate that was seventh. He maintains a quality eye at the plate, with a 26.6% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone, and only a 43.3% swing rate overall. One area of concern, and one that is likely contributing to the lower power numbers, is that groundball rate that's up over 62%. Elevating his contact more could be a worthwhile change in order to help him change his fortunes in the ISO department.


One wonders, though, if he could continue to improve those numbers if he were to swing more at hard pitches than offspeed, which was not the case last year. Brooks Baseball has Yelich swinging at just over 46% of offspeed last year, against 44% of hard stuff. Better pitch recognition, something that Yelich has been praised for in the past, could lead to higher quality contact, more play in the gaps, and maybe even, somewhere in there, an uptick in his overall power numbers.


The goal for Christian Yelich, in order to stave off of some of that "failure" talk, misguided as it may be, should be to focus on improving that .116 ISO. Maybe it's a matter of being completely healthy, building up strength, and letting that power continue to develop. Or maybe it's a change within his swing that needs to be made in order to allow him to elevate more. Or maybe it's a matter of recognizing and targeting fastballs during at-bats.


Regardless of the adjustments that might need to be made, it's absurd and unreasonable to declare Christian Yelich a failure. While he hasn't developed in one or two respects, he continues to be a steady performer in many others. He's an excellent baserunner, as a near-lock for 20 swipes a season, and a better defender than expected (18 Defensive Runs Saved in two seasons). Mostly, he's a very solid contact hitter who maintains a strong approach and gets on base at a very pleasant rate. He may never develop into the middle-of-the-order guy that the Marlins thought they had initially, but as a table setter alongside Dee Gordon, he's doing just fine.


That's not a bad thing to have to settle for if the power never comes.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...couting-report

[Namaste]

Has a combined WAR of 11.3 over the last 3 seasons.

Stanton is at 11.9.

[Wagner]

Did you hear that, Brewers won't activate Christian Yelich from DL when first eligible · Alec Brzezinski? Yelich will now require two or three days of full baseball activities without a setback before he returns to the Brewers. The report said that should be within the next couple days.

[Namaste]

Yelich has a 4 WAR this year.

[fish16]

Yelich has a 4 WAR this year.

He's having a legitimate MVP type year.