Dan Uggla 2010: Internal Talks Underway to Keep Uggla for 2012

[Swifty]

At some point, you have to start acting like a major league franchise. Keeping one of the three best 2B in baseball, and let's be honest, it's him Cano and Utley, is doing that.

There's nothing more that you can ask of him. He's walking, he's raking and his defense has improved considerably. You keep him, you figure out what to do with Cogs (3B?) and move on.

[Jay]

See I love Uggla but I wouldn't be upset if he isn't given a long term contract. He is the type of player who declines early. There is no way I would give him more than 3 years.

And for the sake of maintaining the image of a major league team, you need to offer at least one of Cody, Uggla or Cantu a multi year contract. I'll be happy if Cody or Uggla are given a contract. Uggla is only expendable because Coghlan can shift to second.

[Nick]

I don't see why we should expect Uggla to decline. In baseball history the player Uggla most resembles is Jeff Kent, and Jeff Kent's best years were from age 30-39. Were those years steroid aided? Debatable, but still I don't see why we should expect him to decline considerably once he reaches his mid-30s.

[kosmo kards]

At some point, you have to start acting like a major league franchise. Keeping one of the three best 2B in baseball, and let's be honest, it's him Cano and Utley, is doing that.

There's nothing more that you can ask of him. He's walking, he's raking and his defense has improved considerably. You keep him, you figure out what to do with Cogs (3B?) and move on.

I couldn't agree more. If he can keep his average at least at .270 he is the best second baseman other that Utley and Cano. I think the Fish should give him a 4 year deal after this season. Best rule 5 draft player ever.

[Swifty]

Uhhhh, Roberto Clemente.

[Miamarlin21]

I couldn't agree more. If he can keep his average at least at .270 he is the best second baseman other that Utley and Cano. I think the Fish should give him a 4 year deal after this season. Best rule 5 draft player ever.

Johan Santana?

[Swifty]

Yeah, so either way, even if Uggla isn't the best rule v guy ever, he's still a spectacularly good second baseman. He's given us no reason to believe he's "debut late, decline early" because he's improved (for all intents and purposes) each of his five seasons. His power isn't reliant on anything other than his popeye forearms and he's more deserving of an extension than any player currently in arbitration on our roster.

I think we can/should/could hang onto all of our arby guys and be financially fine but even if it comes down to Uggla/Nolasco, I think what used to be debatable or even a slam dunk for Ricky is now no longer the case. You keep him, you spread it over 4 years so his 2011 payout is actually a "savings" for the team and you go into the park in 2012 as a world beater.

[emkayseven]

I don't see why we should expect Uggla to decline. In baseball history the player Uggla most resembles is Jeff Kent, and Jeff Kent's best years were from age 30-39. Were those years steroid aided? Debatable, but still I don't see why we should expect him to decline considerably once he reaches his mid-30s.

you already mentioned the reason

there's no reason to believe that since his stats and kent's are similar, and since kent actually improved with age contrary to the vast majority of athletes, specifically lower average power hitters, that uggla will improve with age too. you can't assume that at all.

[CrimsonCane]

Well, Uggla's stats have him most similar to Gene Tenace (per Baseball Reference) who played in a non-steroids era. Tenace's seasons following age 30 (by OPS+):

Age 31 - 134
Age 32 - 139
Age 33 - 137
Age 34 - 131
Age 35 - 161

Uggla's on-base skills have also improved each year which could mitigate some decrease in power. Conditioning and training are also the kind of factors that go into whether a decline is on the way. We don't know enough about that to make an evaluation about Uggla's work ethic, but the front office certainly does.

[emkayseven]

Use OPS+ all you want but you're not sharing all the information. By age 33 Tenace was no longer a full-time player. He had 316 at bats in his age 33 year, 129 at age 34 and 124 at age 35.

And the OPS+ and his OPS in general is high because of his massive amount of walks. Tenace's BA in those years you mentioned were .224, .263, .222, .233, .258. But he walked over 100 times the first two years (when he was still a full time player), then 92, 38, and 36. He had (in my opinion) one of the best eyes of all time. His OBP in that stretch of time you used, despite the low batting averages, was over .400, which is incredible.

Uggla's sporting a career .346 OBP and, if you look just at his eye improvements over the last few years, he looks like a .360 OBPer. Solid, but it's not the .400+ Tenace had, and that's a big difference if the power starts disappearing. Tenace walked over 100 times four times before the years you mentioned and led the league in walks twice. Uggla isn't doing that.

[Nick]

Gene Tenace was also a catcher which is a completely different when talking about the durability of a player.

[emkayseven]

Regardless of position, Gene Tenace had one of the best eyes in baseball. Dan Uggla does not come close to that attribute.

[Nick]

That doesn't have anything to do with our discussion.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, it does in that if his bat speed slows a little, he can still be propped up by a superb eye. Daniel will have less of a crutch.

[Nick]

Well as we've seen Uggla's discipline has improved as he's gotten older and I expect that trend to continue. I don't think it will get to Tenace's level, but it also must be taken into account that Uggla's power advantage over Tenace more than makes up for it.

Tenace's first 4 full seasons were from age 26-29, just like Uggla's.

Let's compare their slugging percentages:
Tenace/Uggla

26 - .443/.480
27 - .411/.479
28 - .464/.514
29 - .458/.459

and so far this year at Age 30 Uggla's at .517, while Tenace's at 30 was .410.