SI: Beinfest Game's 4th Best GM....Errr...President of BBO

[PitchingWinsGames]

The perception has never matched up with the reality when it comes to Hee Seop Choi's time in the Marlins. I've been arguing this for a while.

I have also been arguing this.

As much as DLee was underrated in his Marlins career, fans still look back and hold his glove on a pedestal, I don't think many people knew what we had in Choi.

[Bobbob1313]

Getting a bunch of fucking projects back for a top-3 offensive talent is the failure.

At the time, Miller and Maybin were not seen as "fucking projects". This was as slam dunk as prospect packages come. They were considered to be major league ready within a year. The fact that that proved to not be true does not change the perception of the trade at the time.

And hell, even the other 4 guys all projected to be of some value as major league pieces. Trahern looked like a back of the rotation innings eater type of guy, De La Cruz looked to have a future as a fireballing middle reliever type, Badenhop has pretty much fulfilled his destiny, and Rabelo looked like a backup catcher. Conceivably, they got two stars and 4 decent-as-long-as-they-aren't-making-more-than-800k guys.

You criticize not buying out Cabrera's arbitration, yes. You criticize the fact that they hung Miller up to dry by letting him pitch 100 innings in 2007 at the major league level when he probably should have been in AA, yes. Hell, maybe you criticize letting De La Cruz go last offseason without giving him a real chance. But I'm not sure what he could have done to get a better package.

We can either judge trades by how they work out, or we can judge them by what the value was at the time. You are playing the end result, which I suppose is fine, but that means that Beinfest supporters should be able to play the result on the Beckett trade, right?

[Ramp]

I have also been arguing this.

As much as DLee was underrated in his Marlins career, fans still look back and hold his glove on a pedestal, I don't think many people knew what we had in Choi.

....probably because he flamed out quickly once he left

[Bobbob1313]

And because Lee had one of the most fluky dominant seasons in recent memory in 2005 that skewed everyone's perception of him.

And neither of those things should matter when judging the trade, but of course they do.

[PitchingWinsGames]

....probably because he flamed out quickly once he left

.789 OPS the season after we traded him to the Dodgers. Not terrible, but not exactly flaming out for someone that should be making the minimum, and in Dodger Stadium

[Beef]

He homered off DTrain in the WBC


I think

[Ramp]

.789 OPS the season after we traded him to the Dodgers. Not terrible, but not exactly flaming out for someone that should be making the minimum, and in Dodger Stadium

and then he was out of the league... thats what I meant by flaming out, prob wrong verbage

[Swifty]

At the time, Miller and Maybin were not seen as "fucking projects". This was as slam dunk as prospect packages come. They were considered to be major league ready within a year. The fact that that proved to not be true does not change the perception of the trade at the time.

And hell, even the other 4 guys all projected to be of some value as major league pieces. Trahern looked like a back of the rotation innings eater type of guy, De La Cruz looked to have a future as a fireballing middle reliever type, Badenhop has pretty much fulfilled his destiny, and Rabelo looked like a backup catcher. Conceivably, they got two stars and 4 decent-as-long-as-they-aren't-making-more-than-800k guys.

You criticize not buying out Cabrera's arbitration, yes. You criticize the fact that they hung Miller up to dry by letting him pitch 100 innings in 2007 at the major league level when he probably should have been in AA, yes. Hell, maybe you criticize letting De La Cruz go last offseason without giving him a real chance. But I'm not sure what he could have done to get a better package.

We can either judge trades by how they work out, or we can judge them by what the value was at the time. You are playing the end result, which I suppose is fine, but that means that Beinfest supporters should be able to play the result on the Beckett trade, right?

Miller was absolutely a project.

The criticism with the Detroit trade is relatively easy. The "stars" already had their ML clocks ticking. In the case of DLC, he didn't have enough options left for the type of grooming he needed, in the case of all of them, none were ML ready, as was the case with any of the rumored hauls out there, or the Beckett haul.

I mean, in terms of theoretical talent dollars, I'd say we came up on the short end, whether that was the best offer on the table, well, given who was being traded and how the deal allegedly came on

we want Miggy
well, we want these two
the only way you get them is Miggy and Dontrelle
OK, Fine

I'd argue there were superior offers to be found if we shopped them as a package.

[PitchingWinsGames]

and then he was out of the league... thats what I meant by flaming out, prob wrong verbage

Oh, well yeah. I kinda wondered why he just left, it's not like he was particularly bad, sure he probably would have topped out at average, but still.

[Namaste]

I can get on board with Swift's last sentence. He brings up a an interesting point.

It's safe to assume that Cabrera and Willis were not aggressively shopped as a package deal right?

[Swifty]

I can get on board with Swift's last sentence. He brings up a an interesting point.

It's safe to assume that Cabrera and Willis were not aggressively shopped as a package deal right?

They 100% were not and I'll put my e-credibility on the line with that. Miggy was being shopped, Dontrelle was staying (put my eyes out with a spoon) and then Dontrelle was on his way out when Detroit gave us the shoot the moon package we wanted for Miggy when Dontrelle was put in.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm not sure many teams had the mix of talent and dollars to make that move and drastically improve on Miller and Maybin at the time, even if we had actively shopped both of them publicly.

I mean, you're talking about one guy who was the #10 prospect in all of baseball the year before we traded for him and one guy who was the #6 prospect in baseball the year before we traded for him and was the #6 prospect when we traded for him.

Taking what actually happened in their progressions out of it, I'm still not sure we could have gotten a better package. Two top 10 prospects in all of baseball who had performed well in the minors plus 4 guys who could have legitimately been MLers at some point.

I'm not sure what type of package could have been put together to top that one at the time, unless you're talking about the Kemp, Loney, Billingsley rumored deal, but all three of those guys had two years of minimum arbitration seasons already used up by the end of 2007, so there's reason that one wasn't as good as it seems too.

Anaheim offers you, what, Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart and some pieces? Howie Kendrick instead of Adenhart?

[Swifty]

Just so I'm clear, you think the rumored LA deal was inferior to the Detroit one?

[Ramp]

the Anaheim one was for sure

(I know you didn't say it was not)

[Bobbob1313]

Kemp, Billingsley and Loney vs. Maybin and Miller?

Inferior?

No. Probably not.

But if you are going to criticize the Marlins for getting guys who's clocks have started (Even though Maybin isn't going to be arbitration eligible until 2012, I believe), shouldn't you take into account that that trio would be arbitration eligible much earlier than Maybin and Miller, so you're talking a larger short term dollar commitment. They will make $11 mil this year compared to the 2 mil or so you are paying the Miller/Maybin package.

That should matter, right?

Yes, the LA offer was likely better, though I'm not sure that offer has ever been confirmed. They were further along in their development and they were older so there was less time for things to go wrong.

But the Tigers offer had more upside, I would argue. And I think, ignoring what has actually happened, a case could be made for either, depending on whether you like the value of getting two absolute stud prospects (Again, at the time) or 3 lower rated prospects who are further along.
--------------------

the Anaheim one was for sure

(I know you didn't say it was not)

What was the Anaheim offer?

This type of hypothetical discussion is a little unfair because we actually know what the Tigers offered, but we don't know what anyone else offered with 100% certainty.

Who knows if we tell the Dodgers "Hey, Dontrelle is going to be involved too" and they don't say "Well, you know what, no thanks on the deal then, we don't like him."

What we think we know is that the Dodgers offered Kemp, Billingsley, and Loney at the deadline for Cabrera straight up. We do not know if they had the same offer on the table in the offseason, and quite frankly we don't know how serious that offer ever was in the first place.

This is all speculation, and speculation offers a much higher ceiling than reality. Maybe the Angels would have offered Kendrick, Wood, and Adenhart for Willis and Cabrera and we are the dumbest for not giving them the chance, but the fact of the matter is they didn't.

At the time, the Miller/Maybin/everyone else deal was a really, really good haul. I would say better than the Hanley/Anibal haul without the benefit of hindsight.