SI: Beinfest Game's 4th Best GM....Errr...President of BBO

[Party]

General consensus is groupthink.

[Bobbob1313]

General consensus is groupthink.

And individual opinions are worthless.

[Swifty]

So then your opinion is worthless. Ergo, your opinion that collective opinions are the most valuable is worthless.

You're gold today bobby.

[Bobbob1313]

And as for me being the mirror image of lou, that would involve not believing there is a tomorrow, that 3 years from "now" is filled with hellfire and brimstone and that my farts don't smell like roses (ok, well, 1/3).

I think I'm far more measured than any of the former Maybin fan-club. I realize I'm negative, but that isn't to say that I am being unreasonable. I've maintained consistently that I think we're the best team in that second tier of NL teams for this year, and that all we need is a legitimate #3 to come in or emerge for us to have 90ish win potential. I mean, maybe lou thinks we're good for 162-0 so then I can kind of sort of be a mirror image to him, but the real big difference between lou and me isn't the absence of sunshine and rainbows, it's that I realize how damn hard it is for a player to "make it." I realize that teams don't luck into 90 wins and I certainly realize that a best case scenario for a player (which is what most, if not all, scouting reports are) is far from an inevitability.

God, I wish we could look back on your predictions for the last two seasons so we could see how reasonable you are.
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So then your opinion is worthless. Ergo, your opinion that collective opinions are the most valuable is worthless.

You're gold today bobby.

Ok, then I guess this discussion is done.

[Swifty]

Bobby, 9 out of 10 medical experts said there was nothing wrong with smoking or drinking while pregnant. 9 out of 10 medical experts prescribed thalidomide for morning sickness. The entire western world thought giving Hitler Poland would be fine. It's funny how spineless you are. Grow a pair and believe something for yourself.
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Ok, then I guess this discussion is done.

Based on your own standard it is. You have made it known you find yourself to be "worthless" and can only be expected to regurgitate what is passed down to you through the divine process of collective opinion.

[Bobbob1313]

Ok.

Instead of getting into a personal attack war with you, because I'm really not interested in it, I'll reiterate a question that is at the core of this debate but that has yet to be answered sufficiently:

Are we judging Beinfest on the outcomes of his moves, or on the context of when the moves were made?

Yes, you were of the opinion that it was a bad haul at the time. That is fine, it's your opinion. My opinion at the time was that it was a fine haul, given everything we know about the time. That is fine. Neither opinion should be any more valid if we are simply acknowledging them as opinions.

Is your opinion more legitimate because it turned out to be right? I would assume you believe this, no?

I'm just looking to find what we are setting up as the bounds for this debate.

[dgriot]

God, I wish we could look back on your predictions for the last two seasons so we could see how reasonable you are..

Google Cached Pages are your friend.


2008 Predictions

Swift: 60-102 if they're lucky
Lou: 72-75 wins

The lineup should hit for power, and 5 everyday players could hit 25 homeruns apiece. As a team, the Marlins probably won’t hit for a great average, should be mostly station to station on the base-paths and it may also top 1,400 strikeouts. Ultimately, it’s not what these players do with their bats that will be concerning, it will be their gloves. Mike Jacobs may be the worst defensive regular first baseman in the national league, Hanley Ramirez’ throwing arm is inconsistent, Dan Uggla is not exceptional at going to his left (exacerbating Jacobs’ short comings at fielding his position) and Jorge Cantu may have no lateral movement whatsoever. As a group, this may be the worst infield defense the Marlins have ever assembled, and that does not bode well for pitchers like Chris Volstad and Sergio Mitre.

In the outfield, the Marlins have two corner outfielders with starter quality bats but shaky gloves. Josh Willingham is a capable defender in left, but he is probably better suited to a spot on the infield, probably at first base. The team still lets him take ground balls there, so keep an eye on that. In right, Jeremy Hermida has defensive lapses that boggle the mind, and maybe when he’s annually hitting .330 they will be overlooked, but until he gets there (and even when he gets there) Hermida needs to cut down on simply giving away outs.

Finally, the rotation has the blueprint of something that could be special, but not this year. Andrew Miller along with Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez should give the Marlins a good look at the future, and the flood of September callups should let the Marlins see a promising future. Unfortunately, every season seems to bring a rash of injuries to the rotation so the Marlins goal for 2008 may simply be health and nothing more.

Unless the Marlins do something truly shocking like signing Barry Bonds to play left field, this is a team that is probably one big bat away in its lineup and a year away in its pitching staff from making some noise. Should the defense surprise everyone and become an above average unit, there is certainly enough offensive talent here to score some runs, but ultimately, there is enough defensive shortcomings to give those runs right back. The rotation probably won’t help itself out a lot either as there isn’t a true strikeout pitcher in the bunch, and there is a real concern that the young arms will wear down as the season goes on and they close in on 185 innings. Vegas has the Marlins 2008 win total over-under set at 68 ½, my best guess is that they win 65 games. There’s just enough talent for them to stave off 100 losses, and the bullpen is good enough to protect most of the leads they are given after the 6th inning, but the defense should let starters down early and often, and August and September figure to be exceptionally brutal with only 12 games in the two months combined against teams who figure to be out of the playoff race.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the offense. I agree Hanley (and Uggla) will come down a little bit from last year, but a full year out of Hermida and Jacobs, a rebounding vs LHP for Hammer, and getting more out of center field (.683) is going to help. These guys can still hit. I think they can get close to 750 runs scored on the year and be a respectable middle of the pack NL team in this regard.

I think the defense will be better too. Maybin and Castillo are going to make a tremendous impact, Hanley just has to be better, and Hermida should be a neutral threat out there in RF. Hopefully Rabelo/Treanor make some sort of 'unchartable pitcher performance' improvement as well. Tough to quantify how many runs that will save, but it won't be as nightmareish as this season and it will really help the pitchers.

And pitching. Where do we even start.

Rotation Whips
Dontrelle 1.60
Olsen 1.76
Mitre 1.48
Kim 1.60 / Obuermueller 1.83
Vanden Hurk 1.74 / Barone 1.68 / (Anibal/Seddon/Johnson awful starts)

Would you completely argue if I propose this? (I think it can easily be better too).
A. Miller 1.45
Olsen 1.40
Mitre 1.45 / Anibal 1.35
Hendrickson 1.45 / Volstad 1.40
Nolasco 1.45 / G. Hernandez 1.45

It's really not asking for much, and this would amount to at least 200 less base runners during the season. Probably more as I did the numbers very fast and didn't really average it out per start. Dontrelle, Olsen, Kim, and Hurk also gave up a crazy amount of HR which just has to drop as well. I also think the bullpen will have the same success. Gregg, Lindstrom, and Pinto shouldn't change much. It's doubtful J. Miller and Gardner can do it again, but we'll have Kensing, Owens (when back), Cruz, and probably Nolasco and Vanden Hurk, to make up ground off any trails in their performance, plus the 100 awful innings thrown by Armando/Messenger/Julio/Zarate/H. Garcia. Tank (50 IP at a 1.50 whip in 2007) can also make up some ground to make it relatively neutral.

Anyways, overall. Yea the offense is going to go down 40-70 runs for sure, but the runs allowed should go down huge, I'm optimistic to the point of 75-100 runs. I think in a worst case scenario the team will have the same -101 run differential (and subsequent record), but I expect it to improve by 25-40 runs cause I have confidence in the kids. I would think around 72-75 wins.

Ignore the win totals, and nothing outrageous in either take.

[Metes]

I'll stir the pot by saying that the "he did his best at the time" and "it was a good trade at the time" arguments mean dick. Results matter, and if a move looked great at the time, but didn't produce good results, you lose. You get credit for being wrong, not for making the best decision at the time.

Losers try their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

[Beef]

By the same stir then, he ought to get some sort of extra credit I suppose for trades that turn out even better than he expected

[Bobbob1313]

Asdrubal Cabrera, Adam Miller, and more is what we asked for Indians said no

Angels GM said he wasn't that involved in discussions for Cabrera, but Gammons reported that Howie Kendrick, Nick Adenhart, Jeff Mathis were discussed. Apparently Loria and Samson insisted on both Adenhart and Ervin Santana being included, and the Angels said no and that was the end unless they were willing to include Uggla.

White Sox made a late push and apparently offered three of Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd

Marlins wanted Josh Hamilton for Willis from Cincy

Giants were "agressive", but weren't willing to part with Lincecum

Marlins asked for 4 of Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche, James Loney, and Matt Kemp. Dodgers said no.

Astros discussed it, but didn't have enough for us.

[Metes]

By the same stir then, he ought to get some sort of extra credit I suppose for trades that turn out even better than he expected

Yep. Results matter.

[nny]

First, and this is the smaller point, I'd say your/swift characterization of "guys down the list" is a bit off. Yes, I can agree Pokey/Castillo/Julio/etc were considered "Option A" at a position, and ultimately "Option B" with Uggla/Cantu/Constant stream of relievers proved to be the better option. But why does that matter at all? The bottomline is, talent was brought into the organization and the better play ultimately won the playing time. All of these guys are retreads, so does it matter one is expected to "suck less" than another, and Beinfest is ultimately wrong about which guy is more likely to succeed? I don't think it matters where on the "list" the guy is, because performance really dictates what happens with this franchise. The bottomline is we are getting serious production here.

The problem is like Swift said. Give Beinfest a budget and how many Julio's get signed to big contracts because they throw in the mid 90's? Is Beinfest hampered by payroll, or helped by it? All the bodies are brought in and sorted out now because we have to find someone to make 400k and be productive. When Beinfest is going to have the chance of buying a player, who's he going to go after, the undervalued under-appreciated players (Cody/Uggla/Baker/ect) or the overvalued overrated players? Considering his track record, I'm certainly real scared. That's something we'll eventually see.

1. Preston Wilson/Charles Johnson/Mike Hampton/Juan Pierre Insanity - Fucking Brilliant. We can bag on JP all day, but he was awesome 2003-04.
2. Dontrelle/Clement - Awesome
3. Pudge Free Agency - Awesome
4. Jack McKeon Hiring - Awesome
5. Urbina - Awesome. I don't care that Gonzalez is amazing. The fact is this is exactly what the team needed and even if it overpaid, it worked. I hate being outcome determinative about things, but when you beat the Yankees for a world series, that cures all wrongs.
6. D. Lee/Choi - Not awesome
6a. Lowell 4 years, $32 million (forgot this is in initial list why the number is different) - I'm on the fence. Lowell was a very productive, and popular, guy on the team so I can understand them keeping him. I'm going to say neutral. This didn't "hurt" the franchise. And I'm not going to play the hypothetical game where we could have used the money elsewhere. This was a fine longterm contract. Who knew he was going to be like that in 2005.
7. LoDuca/Penny/Mota/Encarnacion/Choi - I hated this move when it happened, and still today
8. Delgado signing - Awesome.
9. Beckett/Hanley/Anibal/Lowell - Awesome
10. Pierre/Nolasco/Pinto/Mitre - Awesome
11. Delgado/Jacobs/Petit - Neutral. If it's true we passed Milledge, I hate this so freaking much, but we did clear salary and Jacobs was useful for a few years. This didn't hurt us like D. Lee/Penny trades
12. Cabrera/Willis/Maybin/Miller - Not awesome, and that goes to "not buying out Cabrera's arbitration," versus what we got back. I can understand this trade even if it has not yet worked out, but it should just have never come down to this.
13. 6 year Contract for Hanley - Awesome
14. 4 year Contract for Johnson - Awesome

1. It was good, but in a vacuum I think you're rather overrating it. CJ was still valuable, he could still hit enough and was an amazing defender. And the money "saved" by trading him was completely spent on Hampton, so keeping CJ means we wouldn't have spent any more money than we did. And Preston wasn't far behind to JP in 2003 and was then injured in 2004 (something that obviously couldn't be predicted), likely would have against been close to JP in value in 2004.

The difference is the money made from Preston against JP (15.5 v.s 7.1), and what makes it a good trade is not the trade itself, but getting Pudge Pudge + JP > CJ + Preston. Moves are not vacuums and they're based off building a team, so signing pudge is what really makes it a great move. But individually the move itself wasn't really all that good. CJ+Preston > JP+most every other catcher, just CJ+Preston would be making more M.

2. I wouldn't really consider Clement/Willis a "major" move, but rather one that had a major result. Clement was a #5 starter and Willis was far from a big time prospect.

5. You're completely playing the result. Urbina was not Joe Nathan, Urbina had a 4.19 ERA before we traded for him and a mid-3 ERA for his career. He was an above average reliever but not an ace. Yes, he pitched like an ace for us in 40 some innings, but that can't be foretold. Trading for Urbina was smart, but we completely overpaid. You can go "world series world series" but you cannot say matter of factly that we wouldn't have won without Urbina, just as you cannot say matter of factly we would have won without Urbina. All you can do is look at the trade, and we over payed amazingly bad regardless of what Adrian would become.

6. I'd agree with pwg/bob that this was a good move

6a. We more or less payed the going rate for him. I think in most cases this would be a push move, but you also have to considering two things: 1-Going rate for players with what our payroll was and is is not smart spending of money and 2-as Swift already noted, we had a major 3b prospect who was already in the majors who and needed to be moved out of the OF and who couldn't have been predicted he'd eat himself out of the position.

7-really, really bad

8-we over payed for Delgado, which itself was bad and then combine with again our payroll situation and this wasn't a good contract. It ended up being good for us as an organization because of flipping Delgado and reaping his one year, but I really doubt their plan all along was to flip him.

9-the result is awesome but this is a rather push to good if Hanley does not become the second best player in baseball. Swift already went into Anibal's massive injury history. Just like I already said with Miller, we need players we KNOW that can play.

13-14 are rather duh moves and not something to congratulate.

And missing:
Al Leiter contract - baddd (He nearly had a 1:1 K:BB the previous season)
Luis Castillo trade - bad, castillo was still one of the better 2b's in baseball (~5-7 range) so we traded him for an injury MR cuz he threw upper 90's.

I mean, really the only two moves I think that can be really looked at is awesome while ignoring results are JP trade #2, and Pudge Signing/JP Trade #1 combo. Lee and Hanely both good. Rest are push to bad.

I know your comment was based on the media saying he better than he is

My comment was what my comment said, about how media says this team is built through the farm. It's built through trades.

But, Miller was supposed to be ready though. And everybody thought Maybin might do a Hanleyesque jump to the bigs quick.

Maybin was an extremely bipolar thought of prospect they could have crashed out very easily. He was extremely risky and we're looking like we're going to bank as of now with his fixed strike out rates. And the caveat for Miller has ALWAYS been "no control now, maybe he learns it when he's 29 like RJ." I'm sure a few people thought that of both of them but you're ignoring the mass.

[Bobbob1313]

I'll stir the pot by saying that the "he did his best at the time" and "it was a good trade at the time" arguments mean dick. Results matter, and if a move looked great at the time, but didn't produce good results, you lose. You get credit for being wrong, not for making the best decision at the time.

Losers try their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

That's fine, if that's what we're going with.

Then the Hanley trade is an absolute monster smash win, isn't it? Doesn't that at least even out the Cabrera trade?

[Metes]

That's fine, if that's what we're going with.

Then the Hanley trade is an absolute monster smash win, isn't it? Doesn't that at least even out the Cabrera trade?

Well you lost one top 5 hitter in the game and gained another. So I guess so.

[Ramp]

Yea, that Luis Castillo trade was an absolute abortion