Baseball Prospectus NL East Preview

[Bobbob1313]

I don't think there's any misconception about the type of player he is. He is who he is. I don't think he's going to not get a big payday because of some false image of him as "lucky" or "injury prone". He's going to get a decent pay day, because he can mash the hell out of the ball at times, but he's going to not get a huge payday because he's inconsistent (.689 OPS from August 1 on last year, .559 OPS in April), he can't play a full season, he's a liability in the field, and he's 31.

There's really not any reason for anyone to give him more than say, 3 years, 21 million. He's a nice player, and the Marlins fucked with him by not letting him be an everyday player until he was too old to really have a full career and that sucks, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have his flaws. It has nothing to do with a general misconception about him and everything to do with his very real flaws as a long term product.

[nny]

I think he gets paid. "Supposedly" there was a lot of interest in teams trading for him.

If he gets cheap, I'd think he plays for the Rays. Not putting much thought into it, but I believe the vast-majority of stat-oriented teams are already stacked on the corners. Both Pena and Burrell won't be there next year, so he'd have 1b or DH gig.
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For the record, since bob posted while i was typing, by being "paid" I'm thinking like 2-3 years around 7-10 mil yeah. Assuming he stays the course this season obviously

[Bobbob1313]

He was a top 20-35 outfielder in baseball last year, if you make the minimum PAs 500. That's great, but it's not elite. 7-10 mil a year sounds about right for 3, and he probably doesn't earn the entire contract. I don't think he's going to age well. I'm glad he's getting one big pay day, but I don't think he "deserves" more than he's likely to get. He's going to be pretty properly valued.

[Ramp]

He's gonna OPS .912 this year and prob be top 25 in the MVP voting

[Namaste]

I'll take the under on that for a hundge

2 poor months will keep him in the .890 range

[Todd]

I don't think there's any misconception about the type of player he is. He is who he is. I don't think he's going to not get a big payday because of some false image of him as "lucky" or "injury prone". He's going to get a decent pay day, because he can mash the hell out of the ball at times, but he's going to not get a huge payday because he's inconsistent (.689 OPS from August 1 on last year, .559 OPS in April), he can't play a full season, he's a liability in the field, and he's 31.

There's really not any reason for anyone to give him more than say, 3 years, 21 million. He's a nice player, and the Marlins fucked with him by not letting him be an everyday player until he was too old to really have a full career and that sucks, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have his flaws. It has nothing to do with a general misconception about him and everything to do with his very real flaws as a long term product.

Willingham is very Ryan Ludwickish. At least I consider their talent and career paths to be a relatively good reflection of eachother.