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Florida Marlins
Projected record: 81-81
Why They Might Win: Because this is still a young team with plenty of players still on the upward trajectory of their career—and let's face it, the Marlins are pretty much always better than anybody thinks they will be.
Why They Might Not Win: They don't have a first baseman, unless prospect Logan Morrison can make a big move this spring, while Jorge Cantu and Emilio Bonifacio provide nearly equal weakness at the other corner. The potential roster is loaded with young arms that have yet to live up to their potential.
Player Who Could Surprise: Our new pitching metric, SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA), identifies righty Ricky Nolasco as one of the top sleepers in the game this season. On a purely elemental basis, he was much better than last year's 5.06 ERA, and PECOTA believes he'll be nearly as good as Marlins ace Josh Johnson in 2010.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA projects a major regression for 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, with a batting line of .284/.369/.430—making him an average-at-best left fielder.
Projected record: 81-81
Why They Might Win: Because this is still a young team with plenty of players still on the upward trajectory of their career—and let's face it, the Marlins are pretty much always better than anybody thinks they will be.
Why They Might Not Win: They don't have a first baseman, unless prospect Logan Morrison can make a big move this spring, while Jorge Cantu and Emilio Bonifacio provide nearly equal weakness at the other corner. The potential roster is loaded with young arms that have yet to live up to their potential.
Player Who Could Surprise: Our new pitching metric, SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA), identifies righty Ricky Nolasco as one of the top sleepers in the game this season. On a purely elemental basis, he was much better than last year's 5.06 ERA, and PECOTA believes he'll be nearly as good as Marlins ace Josh Johnson in 2010.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA projects a major regression for 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, with a batting line of .284/.369/.430—making him an average-at-best left fielder.
I agree a lot with what they say about Coghlan and Nolasco, though I expect Coghlan to be a little bit better than that.
I think Gaby is probably going to be among the worst everyday 1B in baseball, but I could see him do what Jorge Cantu did last season as a full time player. That shouldn't kill us, depending on what everyone else does.
STANTON
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