Some Bill James Projections

[Mainge]

He averaged 20 home runs per 500 ABs in the minors.

I dont see it. I think he will get a decent amount of 2Bs, but against MLB pitching I wouldnt be shocked to see him hit under 10 in 500+ at bats. One of his biggest drawbacks is his lack of power/power potential.

I did the math once, and if given the average # of plate attempts for an MLB first baseman Gaby, according to his MiLB track record, would hit 7-10.

Does not compute?

[Bobbob1313]

Does not compute?

From Embee:

The stats I have used are his HR/PA, which is 35. You take 35 divided by 480 AB, which is the average # of ABs for an MLB 1B over a season. You then factor in the hitters environment that is DS. Also add in that he turns 26 this year, and the timeframe for him adding more power is getting small. Of course there is lee way one way or the other, but not a whole lot, and there are variables, such as how he adjusts to DS and how many at bats he gets, but either way this is a discussion that cant be quantified until he becomes the starting 1B, if that happens.

It's really terrible, terrible logic.

his actual number of HR per 500 AB is 17.6. Over the last 2 seasons, he's at 20 per 500 AB.

2007: 9.5 per 500 AB
2006: 30 per 500 AB
2005: 10.7 per 500 AB

[Beef]

I make 40 posts a day on sofla.com

If I go over to the flamar.com message boards and plan to post the same amount of times per day I would post 24 times a day.

[SFiercex4]

If you trust the park and league factors done at Minor League Splits, you'd get 11 HR per 500 PA. That's something like 2.2% HR/PA.

Just a thought.

[Todd]

From Embee:



It's really terrible, terrible logic.

his actual number of HR per 500 AB is 17.6. Over the last 2 seasons, he's at 20 per 500 AB.

2007: 9.5 per 500 AB
2006: 30 per 500 AB
2005: 10.7 per 500 AB

The only problem with this is you are letting the year he played at Greensboro be the dominant variable when he wont play in a park that is anywhere near Greensboro's rather...promiscuous feelings towards HR.

[Bobbob1313]

The only problem with this is you are letting the year he played at Greensboro be the dominant variable when he wont play in a park that is anywhere near Greensboro's rather...promiscuous feelings towards HR.

And your entire opinion is made up of his time in Jupiter.

I'm saying he'll be a 15-20 homer guy that he has been the last two season. Greensboro is the outlier in his career.

~25 in 09
~18 in 08
~10 in 07
~30 in 06
~10 in 05

He'll be from 10-20, and probably in the upper range. I think that is a perfectly safe bet. Your whole stance is so extreme that it borders on ridiculous.

And, just for the record, he put up a .433 SLG in a park that averaged .368. That team hit 84 home runs and he hit 9 of them. That was his absolute worst year.

Nobody here is trying to argue that he's going to hit 35 home runs. That'd be ridiculous. But so is saying he'll hit 8. A

[Todd]

And I think your whole point is so extreme it borders on ridiculous. You continue to weigh parks/leagues more complimentary to the long ball higher than average parks ad not factoring in better pitching at the MLB level. And I am not as much weight to Jupiter like you are doing with Greensboro and last year in the PCL, your two dominant points. He hit 17 in Carolina in roughly the same # of at bats he would see as an every day MLB first baseman. Carolina is closer in park factors to JRS than any other, with JRS being tougher. Factor in the better pitching and I dont think its unreasonable to subtract 5-7 from that 2008 total. It is much more likely he is in the 7-10 range than he is in the 15-20 as you suggest. Far more likely.

[Bobbob1313]

So 17 = 7. Doubly so since no player ever progresses.

I'll say this. You might think I'm ridiculous on this. That's fine. Everyone else (EVERYONE ELSE) thinks you're ridiculous on this. Do with this what you will.

Also, if he's actually an everyday first baseman (emphasis on everyday), he'll get far more than the 480 ABs you always cite.

[Ramp]

In all seriousness Todd, have you ever seen Gaby Sanchez play? It's not like he's David Eckstein out there. He's a pretty big dude.

[Todd]

I know hes not a little guy, but its not like his lack of power potential is a secret or something I made up, its been a legitimate concern, especially since he was converted to a 1B.

And bobbob, most people think he will hit in the 10-15 range. So while some people think I am ridiculous for thinking he will he in the 8-10 range, you likewise are the only person who thinks he will hit in the 20ish range.

I say let him play a season, and judge him afterwards and wait to see whos right. Let it go and have someone eat crow at the end of next season.

[Party]

Remember when Todd did this stuff with Josh Willingham?

[Todd]

I was wrong on Willingham and admitted it. I am generally critical of older players making the jump to MLB and scrutinize what they did(or didnt do) well when they were old for their level of competition. I have never really found Gaby Sanchez as mind blowing, and I dont think his bat really plays at 1B. I dont think its an unreasonable worry.

[lou]

I have never really found Gaby Sanchez as mind blowing, and I dont think his bat really plays at 1B. I dont think its an unreasonable worry.

I don't think anyone here thinks his bat is for 1B longterm. I think we all understand the offensive depth in MLB at the position and Gaby's ceiling, but the issue is, can it work for 2010? And the answer is yes. Gaby should translate in some capacity to the bigs. I don't know if he can get to an .825 OPS, but I don't see why he can't easily get to the upper .700s with that BB/K. And that's a useful player, especially club controlled.

[Bobbob1313]

Todd, you are saying his absolute power max is 10. That's ridiculous. I'm saying he could max out at 20, if everything breaks right. i don't see why this could be seen as ridiculous.

[Todd]

I aint saying his max is 10, but I think that is where he is likely to be around. I dont think he is capable of getting to 20 in a league with better pitching and a tough park. I think he has some gap power but I dont think he has much HR potential at the MLB level.