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Stats guru Bill James predicts big year for Florida Marlins’ Gaby Sanchez
by Joe Capozzi
The Marlins have been waiting for first baseman Gaby Sanchez to blossom. Noted stats guru Bill James predicts that could finally happen in 2010.
Of course, Sanchez might not be with the Marlins next year. He could be dangled as trade bait this winter if the team decides to give Logan Morrison a crack at the first base job in spring training.
Sanchez, who started the year at Class AAA New Orleans after losing the first-base job in spring training, hit .238 with two homers and three RBI in 21 games (and 21 at-bats) for the Marlins this season. James, in his 2010 handbook, projects that Sanchez will get 362 at-bats next year and hit 15 home runs, 59 RBI and bat .279 with an .821 OPS.
“In any season, the vast majority of players play in a manner that seems a natural extension of what they had done before,” James says in his new book. “When that happens, our projection should be reasonably accurate.”
Although he’s been in the projection business for almost twenty years, one thing James has no control over is playing time. “It is always my argument that we have no chance of figuring out, in October 2009, who will get playing time in 2010,” James says. “But what we should do is try to answer this question: If this player plays, how will he play?”
James, in his press release, also projects seasons for other Marlins players. His predictions are for solid years but not the kinds of numbers the players put up in 2009.
2009 batting king Hanley Ramirez will follow up his .342 average by batting .315 (.926 OPS) with 27 homers, 86 RBI and 31 stolen bases. Chris Coghlan will hit .310 (.840 OPS), with 10 homers and 66 RBI. Dan Uggla will hit .252 (.815 OPS) with 30 homers and 90 RBI. Cody Ross will hit .269 (801 OPS) with 23 homers and 80 RBI.
(Don’t count on Uggla being back but there’s a good chance the other three will.)
Josh Johnson, who won 15 games in 2009, will go 14-9 with a 3.63 ERA, striking out 181 over 206 innings. Ricky Nolasco will go 13-10 with a 3.86 ERA, striking out 189 over 205 innings. Matt Lindstrom will save 26 games, going 3-3 with a 4.76 ERA, striking out 44 in 51 innings.
Any thoughts out there?
by Joe Capozzi
The Marlins have been waiting for first baseman Gaby Sanchez to blossom. Noted stats guru Bill James predicts that could finally happen in 2010.
Of course, Sanchez might not be with the Marlins next year. He could be dangled as trade bait this winter if the team decides to give Logan Morrison a crack at the first base job in spring training.
Sanchez, who started the year at Class AAA New Orleans after losing the first-base job in spring training, hit .238 with two homers and three RBI in 21 games (and 21 at-bats) for the Marlins this season. James, in his 2010 handbook, projects that Sanchez will get 362 at-bats next year and hit 15 home runs, 59 RBI and bat .279 with an .821 OPS.
“In any season, the vast majority of players play in a manner that seems a natural extension of what they had done before,” James says in his new book. “When that happens, our projection should be reasonably accurate.”
Although he’s been in the projection business for almost twenty years, one thing James has no control over is playing time. “It is always my argument that we have no chance of figuring out, in October 2009, who will get playing time in 2010,” James says. “But what we should do is try to answer this question: If this player plays, how will he play?”
James, in his press release, also projects seasons for other Marlins players. His predictions are for solid years but not the kinds of numbers the players put up in 2009.
2009 batting king Hanley Ramirez will follow up his .342 average by batting .315 (.926 OPS) with 27 homers, 86 RBI and 31 stolen bases. Chris Coghlan will hit .310 (.840 OPS), with 10 homers and 66 RBI. Dan Uggla will hit .252 (.815 OPS) with 30 homers and 90 RBI. Cody Ross will hit .269 (801 OPS) with 23 homers and 80 RBI.
(Don’t count on Uggla being back but there’s a good chance the other three will.)
Josh Johnson, who won 15 games in 2009, will go 14-9 with a 3.63 ERA, striking out 181 over 206 innings. Ricky Nolasco will go 13-10 with a 3.86 ERA, striking out 189 over 205 innings. Matt Lindstrom will save 26 games, going 3-3 with a 4.76 ERA, striking out 44 in 51 innings.
Any thoughts out there?
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