8/8 - 8/14 Minor League Game Thread

[Nick]

Am i the only one who still thinks Sierra can become a decent MLB player long term? I could see him playing a decent starting role as a speed guy with great d similar to jarrod dyson still. He's been fairly decent this year and he's still just 23. I dont think it will be here that he ends up finding a role long term but i see him as a long term mlb player.

Hitting for more power/XBHs this year, but his OBP is still pretty pitiful.

[lou]

Oh man, I could not disagree with this more. What is Brian Miller good at? No power. (Miller 2 HRs in 1100 ABs, Burdick 9 HRs in 200 ABs) Not particularly good at getting on base. (Burdick .400 OBP right now, which Miller's never done. Not a good base-stealer. Burdick's done what he's doing now at college, he's done it in the Summer League, he's a guy to watch, for sure.

Burdick is definitely rising, but Miller is very likely still a better prospect with his hit tool potential. I think it's pretty notable Miller struck out less than Burdick, a year younger same level and all the scouting sites still have Miller higher. You're talking an incremental power/line drive rate increase and he could turn into a Melky Cabrera type bat who just hits fast, with god-willingly better defense and base running value. There could very well be a Colin Moran hit-tool future here. That's a good comp actually considering the same scouting department drafted them. Moran didn't hit until he was 24 (which is 2020 for Miller). I kind of think Miller is a high-floor backup sleeper in this regards. Just saying, I don't think we should write off Miller just because there are (multiple) funner OF prospects around. He could be a MLB player. Nothing against Burdick, but for a guy his age, let's get his ass to Jupiter and Jax and recalibrate expectations. He's a year younger than Miller and Sierra who I think both would be wiping out A ball too.

And I agree w/ fish16 on Sierra. He can be a real MLB player too. He'll stick around for years if he plays above average defense, can run the bases, and can slap enough hard grounders to get an OBP over .300. I suspect he's the Marlins 26th man next year until VVM or Miller beats him out.

[Nick]

Burdick is definitely rising, but Miller is very likely still a better prospect with his hit tool potential. I think it's pretty notable Miller struck out less than Burdick, a year younger same level and all the scouting sites still have Miller higher. You're talking an incremental power/line drive rate increase and he could turn into a Melky Cabrera type bat who just hits fast, with god-willingly better defense and base running value. There could very well be a Colin Moran hit-tool future here. That's a good comp actually considering the same scouting department drafted them. Moran didn't hit until he was 24 (which is 2020 for Miller). I kind of think Miller is a high-floor backup sleeper in this regards. Just saying, I don't think we should write off Miller just because there are (multiple) funner OF prospects around. He could be a MLB player. Nothing against Burdick, but for a guy his age, let's get his ass to Jupiter and Jax and recalibrate expectations. He's a year younger than Miller and Sierra who I think both would be wiping out A ball too.

And I agree w/ fish16 on Sierra. He can be a real MLB player too. He'll stick around for years if he plays above average defense, can run the bases, and can slap enough hard grounders to get an OBP over .300. I suspect he's the Marlins 26th man next year until VVM or Miller beats him out.

I'm gonna guess Melky Cabrera had more than 2 minor league home runs by age 23.

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Also, Burdick is over a year and a half younger than Miller, so it's not like their development is so far off.

[dim]

If Sierra can't get on base at a reasonable rate he needs to get better at stealing bases if he wants to build in a niche in the majors. At this point I don't think he'll be anything more than a 4th outfielder. Best case scenario is a Dee Gordon type, but I don't think that'll ever happen.

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As for the Miller vs. Burdick debate, I'm definitely putting Miller ahead. Miller was putting up comparable numbers (minus the power) in A ball at 21 years old. I definitely cannot explain why Miller has struggled in Jacksonville back to back years after doing just as well in Jupiter. He might be the first Marlins prospect I've ever seen do that.

We don't really know what we have in Burdick yet, but Miller has enough sample size to think he can be a major league player in the near future. Long term, Miller needs to maintain a .350-.360 OBP to be a reasonable major league starter if he's gonna struggle to hit for any type of power.

[Lee Stone]

I feel pretty certain that guys who struggle to maintain a .700 OPS in the minors (Miller and Sierra) are merely filling little league uniforms at this point. Yes, the Marlins have donated ML salaries to Yadiel Rivera and Rosell Herrera, but at least they offered some versatility and managed to post OPS well over .800 before totally collapsing in the majors.

As one of the very top performers in the Midwest League, Burdick at least has potential. He has also performed significantly better than Jerar Encarnacion did at Clinton this year. Given that that their ages are just a half year apart, I definitely give Burdick the edge over Encarnacion at this point. Couldn't care less what any scouting services have to say about it.

[tjfla]

Sierra is gonna be on the ML Roster next year because he is out of options. 26th Man. Brian Miller is SAME exact player and if Sierra struggles Miller will end up replacing him on the ML team

Both are + defense,+ speed but Miller has better hit tool. Neither really have power

[Lee Stone]

I'll be very disappointed if Sierra or Miller are on the 40-man next season.

[lou]

I'll be very disappointed if Sierra or Miller are on the 40-man next season.

I think Sierra has a 100% chance AND will be on the "26" man roster as batter 13. They can keep Sierra around for 2020 to see if they get lucky with a Dyson type player. Miller isn't 40 man eligible, so no chance. Maybe August 2020 call up if he becomes worthy to see if they want to protect him into 21.

As for Miller overall, I just want to point out Jeff McNeil had 4 career minor league home runs at the same age (and lower level, A+) than Miller. He was also a low strikeout hitter just slapping some hits and grew into gap power. McNeil also hit 5 HR in the next 2 combined seasons, before showing some real power at age 26.

I'm not saying Miller is going to be McNeil, I'm not delusional as that would be a beyond best case scenario comp, but guys with potential plus hit tools just click sometimes and I think there is value in that as a prospect versus boom/bust Jones/Burdick types who will have to bash to succeed. Even an incremental raise in power/hard hit/line drive rates, is going to dramatically raise Miller's average fast if he maintains his plus contact rates. He may not have star upside, but I think he's really interesting with a moderate slugging improvement. His AA ISO was .046 in 2018, and is .086 in 2019. Not saying that's good, but it's trending up? Another jump like that and it's getting interesting. That's all I'm saying.

[Nick]

I think Sierra has a 100% chance AND will be on the "26" man roster as batter 13. They can keep Sierra around for 2020 to see if they get lucky with a Dyson type player. Miller isn't 40 man eligible, so no chance. Maybe August 2020 call up if he becomes worthy to see if they want to protect him into 21.

As for Miller overall, I just want to point out Jeff McNeil had 4 career minor league home runs at the same age (and lower level, A+) than Miller. He was also a low strikeout hitter just slapping some hits and grew into gap power. McNeil also hit 5 HR in the next 2 combined seasons, before showing some real power at age 26.

I'm not saying Miller is going to be McNeil, I'm not delusional as that would be a beyond best case scenario comp, but guys with potential plus hit tools just click sometimes and I think there is value in that as a prospect versus boom/bust Jones/Burdick types who will have to bash to succeed. Even an incremental raise in power/hard hit/line drive rates, is going to dramatically raise Miller's average fast if he maintains his plus contact rates. He may not have star upside, but I think he's really interesting with a moderate slugging improvement. His AA ISO was .046 in 2018, and is .086 in 2019. Not saying that's good, but it's trending up? Another jump like that and it's getting interesting. That's all I'm saying.

Just curious, what makes Burdick a boom/bust guy?

Brian Miller in Low-A straight out of college. 233 ABs .322/.384/.416 35 Ks .374 BABIP
Peyton Burdick in Low-A straight out of college. 185 ABs .319/.399/.568 48 Ks .381 BABIP

Walks and power numbers significantly better for Burdick, yeah more Ks, but BABIP is about the same, what is the concern?

[tjfla]

I'll be very disappointed if Sierra or Miller are on the 40-man next season.

Sierra is 100% gonna be on it. Miller won't be because like lou said he doesn't have to be on the 40 man yet. Now if Sierra sucks and they want to replace him I wouldn't be surprised to see a Sierra DFA and give Miller his "spot" rather than a FA or someone else

They are both 26th man types

Something to watch starting next May is if guys do NOT need to be on the 40 man they likely won't be called up. So guys like Cabrera,Garrett,RP might be ready but won't be called up

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Just curious, what makes Burdick a boom/bust guy?

Brian Miller in Low-A straight out of college. 233 ABs .322/.384/.416 35 Ks .374 BABIP
Peyton Burdick in Low-A straight out of college. 185 ABs .319/.399/.568 48 Ks .381 BABIP

Walks and power numbers significantly better for Burdick, yeah more Ks, but BABIP is about the same, what is the concern?

I wouldnt look at Burdick till he gets to Jupiter but guys like Thomas Jones and even Stone Garrett are boom/bust types

The thing I love about Burdick/Edwards/Orr/even Bradshaw and Milton Smith(all guys Denbo took) is they are ALL baseball guys. They know the game and how to play it-guys like Jones,Garrett,Reynolds played baseball but arent baseball guys and it shows

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Denbo/DJ/Greenlee drafts are gonna be like this

Value
Cape Cod Guys
Baseball players
Spin rate
Closers who can be RP
Up the middle(C/MIF/CF)

Downgrade
Bad body
Multiple sport guys
FB only arms

[lou]

Just curious, what makes Burdick a boom/bust guy?

Brian Miller in Low-A straight out of college. 233 ABs .322/.384/.416 35 Ks .374 BABIP
Peyton Burdick in Low-A straight out of college. 185 ABs .319/.399/.568 48 Ks .381 BABIP

Walks and power numbers significantly better for Burdick, yeah more Ks, but BABIP is about the same, what is the concern?

Significantly more strikeouts. Does that raise as he moves up? That doesn't help a guy who has to bash (and walk) as I don't see projections he's a plus defender or plus on the base paths (maybe that is wrong, as there isn't a good scouting profile as an unheralded guy?). Stuff like that just ends some of these college guys that feast on kids in low-A and then can't hit real breaking pitches in AA. Or become Dean, and can't hit MLB pitching.

Miller still has a first round pedigree and scouts give him a 45-60 hit tool. Maybe he gets too that 60? They think he'll be a plus defender on CF routes, but fringy arm for CF and may play better in LF. That's a profile of a guy that isn't negative in the field which is really helpful. I'm not trying to insult Burdick here, what he is doing is awesome, but I'm going to defer to the scouting reports on an either/or with Miller and not get excited on some SSS unexpected BABIP infused performances in low A of an older college guy. Miller could very easily be nothing, but there is something to be said for hope in his contact rates.

[Nick]

Maybe I've been numbed to the Ks, it's a lot of Ks for Burdick, but it's nowhere near Harrison, Brinson and Chisholm levels. To me avoiding the K like Miller does is not impressive, if you're 1. not hitting for any power 2. not getting on-base at an exceptional rate.

[lou]

Maybe I've been numbed to the Ks, it's a lot of Ks for Burdick, but it's nowhere near Harrison, Brinson and Chisholm levels. To me avoiding the K like Miller does is not impressive, if you're 1. not hitting for any power 2. not getting on-base at an exceptional rate.

It's just a question of probability. Do you think Miller's hit tool/contact rate turns into line drives and some gap power as he ages, and maybe he becomes a guy who just peppers hits all over the place, versus does a dude like Burdick just keep raking/walking despite some BABIP/lower competition flags. I'm just in the camp where I think Miller is likely to find some gap power and turn into a better Harold Ramirez versus Burdick becoming a better Austin Dean.

I like Burdick. I got no beef with him. But I just like Miller more today. I think Miller easily lands in the 21-30 range of prospects, and Burdick is probably 30-40 range. That could change quickly of Burdick sets the world on fire in Jupiter and Jax though.

[Nick]

Good article on the front page of milb.com on Burdick:

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/tools...em/c-309952510

[Lee Stone]

Good article on the front page of milb.com on Burdick:

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/tools...em/c-309952510

Thanks for sharing that. Determined and talented kid.