2019 Draft

[tjfla]

Jim Bowden
Verified account @JimBowdenGM

#Marlins had the best draft of all 30 teams. Special mention to Tigers, DBacks, Rays and Yankees (if they sign the signability picks).

[tjfla]

Overall pretty solid Day 3. We didn't take all 23 yr old RP and drafted some talent as well as needs like C/power bats

Few hard signs like Mokma/Cody/Rombach/John Baker. Hope we sign Ready and McIlwain to get their "rights"(not sure they play but get the rights!!!)

Hopefully Denbo moves these guys thru the system and keeps adding depth!! Time for J2 yet? HAHAHA

[sports24/7]

It's weird to see the national media giving the Marlins credit. Again, this stuff is such a crap shoot, that these plaudits don't necessarily mean a whole lot, but it's still nice (and refreshing) to see.

[lou]

It's weird to see the national media giving the Marlins credit. Again, this stuff is such a crap shoot, that these plaudits don't necessarily mean a whole lot, but it's still nice (and refreshing) to see.

Agreed

[tjfla]

It's weird to see the national media giving the Marlins credit. Again, this stuff is such a crap shoot, that these plaudits don't necessarily mean a whole lot, but it's still nice (and refreshing) to see.

Most were giving Miami credit in Top 10 Rds. Bowden gave them credit for Rd 1-30 as BEST Draft.

Batavia starts 6/14
GCL starts 6/24

[fauowls44]

Craig Mish says on his posdcast that all of the picks in the first 10 rounds will sign.

[lou]

Craig Mish says on his posdcast that all of the picks in the first 10 rounds will sign.

Interesting article on fangraphs about Marlins strategy. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-and...-draft-system/

Basically, they think they tanked quite a few "senior" picks in order to raise money for Fitterer. I'm not sure I'm understanding the valuation of the Marlins "punting" $16 million dollars in pick values. That seems very, very, high. I suspect this is mostly attributed to they had a guy ranked high on their board in rounds 3, 4, and 6 and therefore, the Marlins get dinged on value by not taking that guy? That's a tough sell to me given the crapshoot of picks out of the first 2 rounds and supplementals.

Fitterer is ranked as a 3rd rounder nearly everywhere, so that makes up a lot of value taking him a bunch of picks later. That wipes out the 3rd rounder value debate. So on a practical level, maybe they were cheap with Burdick, Edwards, and Johnson to sign him.... and so what? It's not like 4th-6th rounders in value (even if cheaper ones) have a strong probability of working out and getting one more premium guy like Fitterer who theoretically signst is absolutely worth that every time?

This valuation ding is a hard sell for me. It seems to me that the Marlins had a plan, and executed it. Looks like 3 other clubs did this too. This is also ignoring they may like Burdick, Edwards, and Johnson as top 200 players and it's not solely a cheap debate.

I guess the either/or is, I'd rather have 1 better player as a 3rd rounder that signs, versus four slot guys rounds 3-6. Being cheap with top 75 picks seems dumb, but past that you're looking for home runs and that seems like what Fitterer is.

[tjfla]

Craig Mish says on his posdcast that all of the picks in the first 10 rounds will sign.

Only "hard" sign is Fitterer and they will sign him

- - - - - - - - - -

Interesting article on fangraphs about Marlins strategy. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-and...-draft-system/

Basically, they think they tanked quite a few "senior" picks in order to raise money for Fitterer. I'm not sure I'm understanding the valuation of the Marlins "punting" $16 million dollars in pick values. That seems very, very, high. I suspect this is mostly attributed to they had a guy ranked high on their board in rounds 3, 4, and 6 and therefore, the Marlins get dinged on value by not taking that guy? That's a tough sell to me given the crapshoot of picks out of the first 2 rounds and supplementals.

Fitterer is ranked as a 3rd rounder nearly everywhere, so that makes up a lot of value taking him a bunch of picks later. That wipes out the 3rd rounder value debate. So on a practical level, maybe they were cheap with Burdick, Edwards, and Johnson to sign him.... and so what? It's not like 4th-6th rounders in value (even if cheaper ones) have a strong probability of working out and getting one more premium guy like Fitterer who theoretically signst is absolutely worth that every time?

This valuation ding is a hard sell for me. It seems to me that the Marlins had a plan, and executed it. Looks like 3 other clubs did this too. This is also ignoring they may like Burdick, Edwards, and Johnson as top 200 players and it's not solely a cheap debate.

I guess the either/or is, I'd rather have 1 better player as a 3rd rounder that signs, versus four slot guys rounds 3-6. Being cheap with top 75 picks seems dumb, but past that you're looking for home runs and that seems like what Fitterer is.

Ya I dont really understand the article but I think they are using that extra cash on Nasim Nunez too. As well as likely some after Rd 11 guys(Not alot but could see Mokma/Rombach/maybe a John Baker or Cade Mechals getting more than 125K)

Wasn't a fan of a few picks but I think they did a great job overall and was nice seeing them take chances instead of just 23 yr old RP like last FO

[tjfla]

Slot value for Rd 6-10 was 1,100,000. We might spend 150,000-250,000 so we should have 750K to spend on guys like Fitterer,Mokma,Rombach,others

Who knows what we will save on Burdick and Edwards?

[tjfla]

Interesting C combos next year

NOLA-?
Jax-Fortes/Chavez or Lopez(They love their game calling)
Jupiter-Banfield/Barron
Clinton-Fish/Skelton
Batavia-Barstad/Combs

Amazing to see the depth in the system over 2 years. Marlins old plan was sign 28 yr olds to stick in Rookie Ball

[fauowls44]

Slot value for Rd 6-10 was 1,100,000. We might spend 150,000-250,000 so we should have 750K to spend on guys like Fitterer,Mokma,Rombach,others

Who knows what we will save on Burdick and Edwards?

Here is the answer on Burdick. He signed significantly under slot.

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB
Following Following @jimcallisMLB
More
3rd-rder Peyton Burdick signs w/@Marlins for $397,500 (pick 82 value = $744,200). Wright State OF, redshirt junior, Horizon Lg Player of Yr (407/538/729, 15 HR, 24 SB), well above-avg raw power, avg run, solid arm, RF profile. @MLBDraft

4:53 PM - 10 Jun 2019

- - - - - - - - - -


Also, Edwards signed for nearly $400K under slot as well according to BA.

[tjfla]

Too make the draft even better looks like they are signing both John Baker and Cade Mechals.. Its amazing how this crew understands a draft and is willing to spend too

- - - - - - - - - -

Here is the answer on Burdick. He signed significantly under slot.

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB
Following Following @jimcallisMLB
More
3rd-rder Peyton Burdick signs w/@Marlins for $397,500 (pick 82 value = $744,200). Wright State OF, redshirt junior, Horizon Lg Player of Yr (407/538/729, 15 HR, 24 SB), well above-avg raw power, avg run, solid arm, RF profile. @MLBDraft

4:53 PM - 10 Jun 2019

- - - - - - - - - -


Also, Edwards signed for nearly $400K under slot as well according to BA.

Saved
$344,000 on Burdick
$400,000 on Edwards
$275,000 on Doc
$156,000 on Brabrand
$145,000 on Orr
$600,000 on 5 % OVER(Nasim Nunez)

No clue on Mitchell/Hoeing but wouldn't be surprised if saved $300,000 on them?

Safe to say we have 1.5 Million to play with on Misner/Fitterer/guys after Rd 11. It is less if they don't wanna go over pool but I dont think they mind

In other words we should sign EVERYONE in Top 10. Fitterer/Mokma/Rombach/other guys after Rd 11 are gonna be "over" slot and hearing Misner might be $200,000 or more "over" too

Should note before everyone gets scared in 2 weeks on why guys havent "signed" remember guys who are still playing CAN NOT sign. So Vandy guys/Mokma/Hoeing can't sign which means other guys can't sign because Miami has to make sure they have the cash. We might have 15 guys sitting in Jupiter till GCL who have agreed to deals but can't play!!!!

[fish16]

Are we getting these guys so underslot because we had leverage since a lot of them were seniors, or did we draft guys earlier than they should be for the purpose of saving slot money at those spots in order to spend more on other guys in order to get an all around solid draft? Or did we just do great HW in knowing what everyone will sign for and then executed the plan flawlessly to be able to make the most of our available money? Some of these deals compared to what the slot value is is kind of ridiculous in a good way for the marlins.

[Nick]

Are we getting these guys so underslot because we had leverage since a lot of them were seniors, or did we draft guys earlier than they should be for the purpose of saving slot money at those spots in order to spend more on other guys in order to get an all around solid draft? Or did we just do great HW in knowing what everyone will sign for and then executed the plan flawlessly to be able to make the most of our available money? Some of these deals compared to what the slot value is is kind of ridiculous in a good way for the marlins.

Obviously I wasn't in the room, but if I had to guess I would say the FO had a goal of getting 4 impact college bats, Nunez and one of the top HS Pitchers that they liked in Rounds 1 thru 5.. To do that though they were going to have to pay over slot for Nunez and the HS Pitcher. So some of these impact bats needed to be college seniors, who have less leverage and can be signed for less. So they get Nunez, and then the FO probably had a list of guys they felt were impact bats and also College Seniors and that list was probably shorter than their list of potential HS Pitchers that they liked. So they went ahead and took the Seniors (Burdick was effectively a Senior, Redshirt Junior) in rounds 3 and 4. Then used their 5th round pick on Fitterer, who they'll definitely have to pay over slot for.

[tjfla]

Are we getting these guys so underslot because we had leverage since a lot of them were seniors, or did we draft guys earlier than they should be for the purpose of saving slot money at those spots in order to spend more on other guys in order to get an all around solid draft? Or did we just do great HW in knowing what everyone will sign for and then executed the plan flawlessly to be able to make the most of our available money? Some of these deals compared to what the slot value is is kind of ridiculous in a good way for the marlins.

BOTH. U take college seniors in Rd 6-10 to save cash in pool for hard signs. Brabrand was probably a 29th Rd Pick but u take him in Rd 9 to save all the cash. Then in 29th Rd u take John Baker who is a 9th Rd Pick and give him 125K(9th Rd Cash). U save 125K to use on other stuff

Past 4 years or so,where u get picked means NOTHING!! Its all about how much u are willing to spend and how well u understand the system