2023 Marlins Minors

[lou]

One of Cabrera or Luzardo would have to go I would think, because if not, I don't think you have the firepower to get the caliber of bats you need.

It's gotta be Luzardo then for a few reasons:

1 - He is kicking ass and has a huge immense value right now, especially at this deadline
2 - He is a lefty and most teams will want that
3 - They have more prominent lefties than righties even if the "best 2" are right handers.
4 - He will make the 2nd most money on pitching staff next year (ignoring Cueto)


Imagine Luzardo, Soler, and Floro/Scott going to Baltimore after the all star break. You're getting that package we want - Westburg, Kjerstad, Basallo. That's probably the floor with only Holliday off limits among bats in their farm.

And as you said, you can still trade Rogers and Eder to someone at the deadline which would get a lot too, and roll out Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Cueto, and Garrett, w/ Meyer, Fulton, and Monteverde coming. I can buy it, with especially a 2024 FA SP to help as Meyer isn't going to be ready immediately and Fulton and Monteverde are still what-if guys even if trending up.


(Also this is where Lee says just trade Sandy to the Dodgers and keep everyone else.)

[fish16]

Victor Mesa Jr. is having a really impressive season for a 21 year old in AA. I think he can eventually become an MLB starting caliber player, especially because he plays CF. Give him all of this year and next year in the minors to really start filling into his body and developing that power.

[fish16]

Evan Fitterer has also impressed outside of last nights start. IDK if he can become a starter at the big league level but he was super talented coming out of high school and seems to be putting it together a little. Still just 22 and he throws really hard. I think he becomes a bullpen arm at least. needs to cut down the walks though or he becomes another jordan holloway.

[Nick]

Jake Eder threw 2 innings at Jupiter today. Reason to rejoice.

[Lee Stone]

Eder didn't allow a ball out of the infield in his two prolonged innings. Lots of walks and errors. He figures to start looking great in a couple weeks.

Anthony Maldonade has been fantastic for AAA Jumbos. He belongs in the Marlins pen right now (over Barnes or Brazoban).

[lou]

Eder didn't allow a ball out of the infield in his two prolonged innings. Lots of walks and errors. He figures to start looking great in a couple weeks.

Anthony Maldonade has been fantastic for AAA Jumbos. He belongs in the Marlins pen right now (over Barnes or Brazoban).

To be fair, Brazoban has been very solid. His time with the Marlins is 62 IP, 10.6 K/9, 3.34 ERA (xFIP 3.71) with a .333 BABIP so he might be even better even with the 1.45 WHIP so far. A fair 9.5% HR/FB rate and 52.9% GB. He throws pretty hard too. This all amounts to a .6 WAR, which is very good for a reliever. That's like a 2 WAR SP.

Basically the only thing we can knock is that he is 33 years old and has had a crazy career path to the bigs. This is a quality middle reliever right now and they control him until he is 40 with his options remaining. He might be worth keeping around for years. Would be excellent to move at the deadline though with Maldonado and friends coming in a year though as they should probably stick with the younger guys longterm term.

All good news here besides Barnes who is whatever, but maybe he was just hurt his last appearance.

I'm all in on

Floro, Chargois, Brazoban
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi

They are killing it. Those guys have 140 IP and a 2.5 WAR right now. That is nuts. If we take out Smeltzer's 11.2 glorious relief innings, those 7 are pitching as a top 5 unit in baseball if not top 2-3. That's how good they are and Brazoban isn't an insignificant part of it.

[Lee Stone]

n his last 15.2 IP, Anthony Maldonado has allowed a single earned run (0.59 ERA). 29/3 K/BB.

Call me sentimental, but I want Lewin Diaz back in Jacksonville. He's around .900 OPS in Baltimore organization, with 11 homers and as many walks as strikeouts (represents a huge improvement in his game). He and Jesus Sanchez were just so prolific in the same lineup at AAA for the Marlins. A platoon at 1B would be nice possibility for Miami and the pitchers would love Lewin's defense once again. LEWIN! His third try with Miami varsity could be the charm.

[lou]

n his last 15.2 IP, Anthony Maldonado has allowed a single earned run (0.59 ERA). 29/3 K/BB.

Call me sentimental, but I want Lewin Diaz back in Jacksonville. He's around .900 OPS in Baltimore organization, with 11 homers and more walks than strikeouts. He and Jesus Sanchez were just so prolific in the same lineup at AAA for the Marlins. A platoon at 1B would be nice possibility for Miami and the pitchers would love Lewin's defense once again. LEWIN! His third try with Miami varsity could be the charm.

You know, that's not a bad idea Lee. He is probably nothing, but if the idea is Westburg/Kjerstad as some targets using Luzardo or Rogers + Eder, Lewin is certainly a throw-in to just keep off the 40 man in AAA and maybe he late blooms into a role next year. He's not making the Orioles ever with their bats. Lewin's BB/K is notably better this year with a fair BABIP. Who knows. Also, if the expectations are Lewin would only have to play against some right handers (hitting .934 OPS vs RHP with a 25/27 BB/K rate in 139 AB, holy shit Lewin!) and never lefties (.774 OPS this year so far but hitting .239), he's probably a 350 PA player for the Marlins and they could really get him time only against righties and late inning Arraez defensive replacement as needed. If he could OPS .750 against right handed pitching, he'd probably be a bench asset.

I would be happy with something nuts like:

Westburg
Kjerstad/Mayo
Basallo
C. Prieto (FV40 bat first Cuban infielder, Lee you will love his stats)
L. Diaz

for
Luzardo/Rogers
Eder
Scott
Soriano/Hoeing (Or Nance if he is healthy, and Brazovan obviously also fine if they prefer him)
Fitterer/McCambly/Outside top 30

A 5-5 bat for arm trade among contenders that is a help now and later for everyone as the control years here are nuts. That's 4 pitchers the Orioles can use right now and just a throw in similar flyer guy for Lewin at the backend. The Marlins would have to wait a little for these guys here, but they can handle moving two MLB arms if it gets Westburg right now IMO.



If the Marlins did this, in a perfect world this could be the team quickly in 2024:

Fortes, ____ (Mack, Basallo, R. Hernandez, Banfield)
Arraez, L. Diaz (Berry)
Westburg (Prieto)
____, Amaya (Watson)
Berti, Segura (Cappe)
DLC, Kjerstad
Jazz (Mesa Jr., Edwards)
Sanchez

Then in 2025, Cappe and Edwards/Mesa Jr. replace Berti and Segura and Lewin would have to fight off Berry. If Cappe and Westburg can dabble at SS, Prieto can keep things warm for Watson. Then they'd have a real catcher pipeline for future help.

Which basically means, Salvador Perez for Fulton and others we don't care about (Groshans? I. Lewis? Miller/Millbrandt?)? Because longterm:

Sandy, Luzardo/Rogers, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett (plus Cueto)
Meyer, pick 4 of Bender, Maldonado, Hoeing, Soriano, Pushard, Reynolds, Sixto, etc. (plus have Chargois and Brazoban with some control)
Puk, Nardi, Monteverde (plus Okert with some control)



Baltimore really does make the most sense even if we can craft packages for Peraza, India, E. Rodriguez/H. Davis, and others that do make theoretical sense on paper. I'm not sure how Baltimore could say no to Luzardo and Scott additions right now for nothing on their MLB roster, with Eder coming fast for August/September maybe and a good RHP inventory arm.



And yea, Maldonado did get a big FV40 jump. If we had to pick 4 right handed relievers longterm, I would say Meyer, Bender, Maldonado, and Soriano get first crack, with Reynolds, Hoeing, Pushard, and I'll say Sixto as the next 4. Chargois and Brazoban have some control, but I'm doing the young guy list here.


Anyways, good note on Lewin Lee. I'd be all about a mega-Baltimore trade.

[lou]

I just went to your trade values site Lee for shits and giggles, and this is effectively equal:

Luzardo, Eder, Scott

Westburg, Kjerstad, Basallo, Prieto, Lewin

I think the Marlins would have to kick in two potential low-end RHP relievers as mentioned above, but I came up with my idea independently, and while I hate baseball trade values generally, if we are looking for an independent opinion, they think this one is within the realm of possibility value wise FWIW.


I'm not sure who is saying no here. Baltimore is likely looking up at Tampa - Minn(central winner whoever it is) - Houston, and then the Rangers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are good, with the Angels and Mariners definitely going to be buyers.

Similar to the Marlins, they need to act now and get ahead of the upcoming AL arms race. The first 1-2 AL teams who miss the playoffs are going to be very good teams.

[Lee Stone]

I don't mind cashing in on Luzardo or Alcantara, would prefer to move Garrett, but I think we'd be selling very low on Rogers and or Eder. As relievers go, I'd sell high on Floro.

Westburg is nice but an unknown as far as handling major league pitching goes. The strikeout rate is a concern. However, he's probably as close to an answer for Austin Riley as the Marlins can find right now.

[lou]

I don't mind cashing in on Luzardo or Alcantara, would prefer to move Garrett, but I think we'd be selling very low on Rogers and or Eder.

Maybe, but Kjerstad is a similar valued prospect ultimately so IMO that's not chucking him in to sell low. Look at what he is doing. Pipeline has him at 50 and Fangraphs as a FV45+ (that may be out dated), and Fangraphs has Eder as a FV50 (not in pipeline 100). So that is a wash to me. That's a Jazz-Gallen trade right there, but we're just throwing them some arms since we're talking Westburg already. If Luzardo isn't enough for Westburg and Kjerstad, Eder and Scott makes up that gap quick IMO.

Alcantara is untouchable Lee, and that's ignoring they have more lefties to trade. If someone were to value Garrett as he is throwing right now, he'd be fine to move. But no one is going to pay top dollar for the soft tossing lefty IMO. He seems like the guy the Marlins have to keep as he is more valuable to them. I think Garret is probably the team's longterm SP5 or primary lefty longman and the team's 6th/7th SP for years. Sandy, Eury, and Cabrera are obvious, so I am just imagining Rogers (or Meyer) is better assuming Luzardo and Eder are moved.


It's Luzardo and Scott big picture. They are the most expensive next year as that does matter to an extent, and both are pitching well to cash in. They need an epic bat or bats, so Kim is going to need to trade someone we love to do it.

Westburg is hitting about .285/.370/.540 with a 10% BB rate, 22% K rate, .330 BABIP, 33 HR, 14 SB in 650 PA in AAA. As soon as the Super 2 deadline rolls over, he's a call up forever profile. We would be screaming to have called him up 15 days into the season if we had him you know. How much better can you get than that even if its an iffy defensive profile (arguably)? Let him fall as he lands I say if they were to get him. This dude should hit.

[Lee Stone]

Not sure that the Orioles would be inclined to take Scott back. Don't often see teams trading and reacquiring. players. I'm sure they'd like Okert or Nardi however.

Note: At the same time, of course, I'm suggesting that the Marlins reaquire Lewin Diaz.

[lou]

Not sure that the Orioles would be inclined to take Scott back. Don't often see teams trading and reacquiring. players. I'm sure they'd like Okert or Nardi however.

Note: At the same time, of course, I'm suggesting that the Marlins reaquire Lewin Diaz.

If that deal is hung up on Scott versus Okert (they can't have Nardi with the club control and salary minimums), see ya Okert.

Want Floro instead as a right hander? By all means. This is a combo getting them an arm and clearing off 2024 and beyond payroll. They can find money for Scott versus Okert if that is the final decision. Basically, the Marlins can probably keep one of Floro, Scott, and Okert (or two if we include Chargois in this but they should keep him as they need right handers more probably). I'd strive to keep Okert as cheapest, but it doesn't matter too much as they should be able to do the team with any.

Westburg
Kjerstad
Basallo
C. Prieto
L. Diaz

for

Luzardo
Eder
Scott/Okert/Floro
Soriano/Hoeing
Fitterer/Outside top 30

I think that is awesome if the next move is Salvador Perez for Fulton or worse prospects and absorbing that money and adding Rogers and Cueto back to the active roster to replace the two MLB arms being shipped out.

[Nick]

Xavier Edwards has done all he can do at AAA. Get him up here playing 2B move Arraez to 1st I’ve seen enough of Garrett Cooper.

Zach McCambley threw 2 hit less innings at Jupiter. Talk about a forgotten man. If he can get his career back on track that would be a big boost.

[fish16]

Xavier Edwards has done all he can do at AAA. Get him up here playing 2B move Arraez to 1st I’ve seen enough of Garrett Cooper.

Zach McCambley threw 2 hit less innings at Jupiter. Talk about a forgotten man. If he can get his career back on track that would be a big boost.

completely agree. Edwards should be up here playing everyday. I get that his bad year last year led to him falling off prospect lists but im surprised he isnt right back on them now. His plate discipline has been tremendous. Slot him at CF until Jazz gets back, then 2b when he gets back with Arraez moving to 1b, Cooper being traded to hopefully get some salary relief and reinvest it in a reliever trade or hopefully a C trade.