2009 AL/NL Awards Discussion

[Bobbob1313]

140 OPS+ > 136 OPS+

I guess that's right, but it's kind of negligible.

But you're completely ignoring defense and positional scarcity. Like I said, Ryan Howard was the 6th best 1B in terms of offense, Utley was the best 2nd baseman.

In terms of OPS+, Howard ranks 7th in the NL among first basemen.

Chase Utley was .092 points better than the next best full time 2nd baseman in the NL, Dan Uggla. Ryan Howard was closer to Paul Konerko, the 20th first baseman in baseball than Utley was to the 2nd best 2nd baseman. Positional scarcity is important.

RBI. Meh. Super meh.


As for Cliff Lee...

Through 5 starts: 40 IP, 0.68 ERA. 8 IP/GS. No starts under 7 IP. Awesome.
Final 7 starts: 39.2 IP, 6.13 ERA. 5.7 IP/GS. 1 CG. His game log otherwise: 5 IP 6 ER; 3 IP 6 ER; 7 IP 4 ER; 4 IP 1 ER; 6 IP 7 ER; 5.2 IP 3 ER.

I mean, by the time he started being a bad pitcher, his team already had a 7 game lead, so I guess you can use that excuse if you want, but that's pretty god damned weak. He had an impact, to be sure. But he's not their most valuable player by a long shot.

[Fritz]

Joe Morgan loves RBIs.

[Swifty]

The thing is, we're not talking about a 4 year plan for a player, we're talking about the most recent season. With that in mind, I don't really care where I get my .900 OPS from, I care where it's hitting in the order. If I'm putting together a lineup card, I don't really care about positions on the field, I just care about the order itself. When deciding whether or not to hand out $100 million, yeah, sure, I care that it's easier to find a 1B than a 2B, but just in terms of winning ballgames for one year, I don't care about that stuff.

Where this is breaking down is the thought that Utley's a better cornerstone than Howard (even though, truthfully, I don't believe that either, Utley's 30, that he's only been around for 4 full seasons doesn't hide the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30 and his style of "scrappy" play suggests he won't age well). Simply put, Howard had a better 2009 than Utley did, whether it's by old school measurement (.279 - 45 - 141 to .282 - 31 - 93) or new school measurement (.279/.360/.571/.931 to .282/.397/.508/.905). I really think that the notion that he plays 2B is too overly exaggerated.

[nny]

I'd take Utley's lower OPS but higher OBP

He was the better hitter, but not by much

[Bobbob1313]

The thing is, we're not talking about a 4 year plan for a player, we're talking about the most recent season. With that in mind, I don't really care where I get my .900 OPS from, I care where it's hitting in the order. If I'm putting together a lineup card, I don't really care about positions on the field, I just care about the order itself. When deciding whether or not to hand out $100 million, yeah, sure, I care that it's easier to find a 1B than a 2B, but just in terms of winning ballgames for one year, I don't care about that stuff.

Where this is breaking down is the thought that Utley's a better cornerstone than Howard (even though, truthfully, I don't believe that either, Utley's 30, that he's only been around for 4 full seasons doesn't hide the fact that he's on the wrong side of 30 and his style of "scrappy" play suggests he won't age well). Simply put, Howard had a better 2009 than Utley did, whether it's by old school measurement (.279 - 45 - 141 to .282 - 31 - 93) or new school measurement (.279/.360/.571/.931 to .282/.397/.508/.905). I really think that the notion that he plays 2B is too overly exaggerated.

You are ignoring that he plays a key defensive position and plays it better than just about anybody in the game (FanGraphs said he was the most valuable defensive player of the last 3 years at any position).

.905 + awesome defense at 2nd base > .931 OPS slightly above average defense at 1st base.

I don't see how that is debatable. He's got a slim lead in OPS but Utley is a much more valuable contributor with the glove that he more than makes up for it.

I mean, even if you want to ignore conventional wisdom that a 2nd baseman is more valuable due to positional scarcity, you can't ignore his impact as a defensive player.


This is the whole reason why everyone wants Coghlan to be at 2nd and not LF.
--------------------

Without Lee, the Phillies are not a coast to the division title kind of team, they're just not.

Also, because I forgot to include it earlier...

The Phillies on July 29, when they got Lee: 6.0 game division lead
The Phillies at the end of the season: Won division by 6 games.

He had 6 great starts, 1 ok start and 5 poopie starts. I don't think he was the difference.

[PitchingWinsGames]

I'd take Utley's lower OPS but higher OBP

He was the better hitter, but not by much

+ defense, he was the better player, by enough

[Swifty]

Again, the whole positional argument is more about long term winning than immediate value.

Does the fact that he plays second base make him a valuable building block? Yes. Does the fact that he plays 2B by and of itself win games for the Phillies? No, his production does, and his production is inferior to Howard's, and that's not even debatable. Howard outproduced him. Yes, he outproduced him as a 1B, but until teams are awarded theoretical runs because they're getting premium production from typically weak offensive positions, production > position.

[nny]

Except weighing OBP, which gives a better correlation to runs, says that Utley out produced Howard with the bat. Unless you believe OBP and SLG are on a 1:1 value.

[PitchingWinsGames]

Again, the whole positional argument is more about long term winning than immediate value.

Does the fact that he plays second base make him a valuable building block? Yes. Does the fact that he plays 2B by and of itself win games for the Phillies? No, his production does, and his production is inferior to Howard's, and that's not even debatable. Howard outproduced him. Yes, he outproduced him as a 1B, but until teams are awarded theoretical runs because they're getting premium production from typically weak offensive positions, production > position.

So then, you're rewarding Howard for batting in a spot in the lineup more conducive to driving in runs.

I honestly believe that, given the same opportunities, Utley could also get those numbers, or darn close. Utley played a HUGE factor in Howard even attaining those numbers to begin with.

And, I mean, the only thing Howard really only beat him in was slugging then. But, in terms of net production... (runs saved with the glove, runs added with good baserunning, in addition to conventional batting) Utley should be at least as valuable as Ryan Howard. You can't just look at the bats here.

[wanks1212]

You can make a legitimate argument that Howard was more valuable than Utley, but I can't see how you can consider Lee's ~80 innings to be more valuable to the Phillies than the season-long contributions of either.

[Swifty]

Because that Phillies pitching staff is atrocious.

Honestly, without Pedro and Lee, they probably miss the playoffs. Lee was flat out their best pitcher from the second he arrived. Call it the NBA/NHL "value" scale, but I just cannot accept any argument that ignores what Lee brought to that team.

[wanks1212]

I can accept that Lee had value and that he was much better than the pitchers they had before. I just can't accept 80 innings of Lee is more valuable than an entire season of Howard or Utley, whoever of the two you deem less valuable.

I mean, if the Phillies have to start someone other than Howard at first or Utley at second, that position is likely equally awful or, at the least, extremely less productive than what the position was with Howard/Utley. If they had been a midseason acquisition, like Lee was, the upgrade is also substantial. That they were with the team the entire season, as opposed to just being acquired at the deadline, doesn't mean they're less valuable than Lee. They shouldn't be penalized just because they were around all season.

[Jewbility]

Because that Phillies pitching staff is atrocious.

Honestly, without Pedro and Lee, they probably miss the playoffs. Lee was flat out their best pitcher from the second he arrived. Call it the NBA/NHL "value" scale, but I just cannot accept any argument that ignores what Lee brought to that team.

This is true. My roommate is a philly fan so I've been watching them all year. Lee was the only pitcher to have faith in, especially at the end.

[Swifty]

I can accept that Lee had value and that he was much better than the pitchers they had before. I just can't accept 80 innings of Lee is more valuable than an entire season of Howard or Utley, whoever of the two you deem less valuable.

I mean, if the Phillies have to start someone other than Howard at first or Utley at second, that position is likely equally awful or, at the least, extremely less productive than what the position was with Howard/Utley. If they had been a midseason acquisition, like Lee was, the upgrade is also substantial. That they were with the team the entire season, as opposed to just being acquired at the deadline, doesn't mean they're less valuable than Lee. They shouldn't be penalized just because they were around all season.

Why can't you accept this? I hate the notion that just because you came in at the end you weren't valuable.

Do you think that the '03 Marlins would argue with you if you said that Urbina was a top-3 or top-5 valuable player on that team and that was only with a partial season as a reliever.

Just look at the landscape of baseball. Teams cannot win without pitching. Hence, AJ Burnett gets basically $90 mil guaranteed over 5 years. We have, what, 1 position player who averages more than $20 million on a deal that lasts for more than 3 years yet we have 2 pitchers already and there's a good chance we add a 3rd (Halladay), if not a 4th (Lee) and 5th (Beckett) in one of the next two offseasons.

Think of it this way, you're in an elevator and you're riding up to the 19th floor. On your way up, the cable that's been in there since the elevator's installation snaps and as you plummet towards the ground at the last moment, the emergency break clamps grab the sides of the elevator shaft and your messy end is averted. Yes the cable was there since the beginning, yes the cable did some great things, and yes the emergency break only came in at the very end when it was absolutely needed but that doesn't make it any less valuable.

If a team makes a trade for a player, it's clearly to fill an area of need; if that newly acquired player excels, then his acquiring team is obviously much better off than they would have been if they just went with the status quo at the position. Ergo, I see more value placed on the incoming season savior than I do a good hitter who just happens to play 2B.

[Beef]

I feel like you ignore one thing though to credit another.

That elevator never even would have reached whatever floor it reached if its strongest cables weren't dominating gravity.

The positional value argument is more about long term winning than immediate value if you want to focus on long term winning. But, as has been mentioned I believe, if you have just an average second baseman this year and still have Ryan Howard this year, the Phillies may not be in the position to acquire Cliff Lee and make/continue their run to the postseason. It is, however, far more likely that if the Phillies have Chase Utley this year and an average first baseman this year, they are in a better position when they acquire Cliff Lee than they would have been with the opposite situation. Yeah, it would also be nice to continue that way in the future as well if the team has to go with one or the other, but I fail to see how that does not also apply to the current year.