2012 MLB Season Game Thread: September

[Bobbob1313]

In the only season in which Scott Proctor earned a save (that 06 season he is referring to), he appeared in exactly two games in the ninth inning in which the Yankees had a lead of fewer than four runs.

He had six "blown saves", and they all occurred during the 6th-8th innings.

[Erick]

In the only season in which Scott Proctor earned a save (that 06 season he is referring to), he appeared in exactly two games in the ninth inning in which the Yankees had a lead of fewer than four runs.

He had six "blown saves", and they all occurred during the 6th-8th innings.

Yeah, that's what I thought it was, as well. Makes sense.

[Valid]

I do think there is value in producing in higher leverage situations, obviously, but I simply don't think Cabrera's lead in those small samples makes up the huge gap between the rest of their performance.

It's not like his lead is negligible, though. He has a fairly significant lead in nearly all of those stats.

Also, here is something interesting: both Cabrera and Trout have the same exact BABIPs in high leverage situations (.333), so it's not like Trout has been a victim of bad luck in those spots. Maybe Trout is just getting lucky overall with his .378 BABIP?

[Bobbob1313]

It's not like his lead is negligible, though. He has a fairly significant lead in nearly all of those stats.

The lead is not negligible, but the overall impact is, given that we are dealing with such small sample sizes.

[emkayseven]

he is just a high BABIP player. He had BABIPs over .400 in the minors

[nny]

In the only season in which Scott Proctor earned a save (that 06 season he is referring to), he appeared in exactly two games in the ninth inning in which the Yankees had a lead of fewer than four runs.

He had six "blown saves", and they all occurred during the 6th-8th innings.

So it's even worse than I though, I looked at BR's save situation stat and misinterpeted it

[Valid]

I guess my memory was skewed regarding Proctor, as I seemed to remember him blowing many games in the ninth, but I still maintain that you need a certain mental makeup to close out games in the ninth inning. As I said earlier: MLB relievers have even said that those last three outs are entirely different, and I think we should take their word for it considering they are the ones actually doing it.

[Erick]

It's not like his lead is negligible, though. He has a fairly significant lead in nearly all of those stats.

Also, here is something interesting: both Cabrera and Trout have the same exact BABIPs in high leverage situations (.333), so it's not like Trout has been a victim of bad luck in those spots. Maybe Trout is just getting lucky overall with his .378 BABIP?

You still haven't factored in defense/baserunning into the equation.
If you're going to nitpick leverage stats for Cabrera, Trout has a huge edge in defense and baserunning.
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I guess my memory was skewed regarding Proctor, as I seemed to remember him blowing many games in the ninth, but I still maintain that you need a certain mental makeup to close out games in the ninth inning. As I said earlier: MLB relievers have even said that those last three outs are entirely different, and I think we should take their word for it considering they are the ones actually doing it.

Can you provide examples of guys who could do it in the 8th and not the 9th, though?

[Valid]

You still haven't factored in defense/baserunning into the equation.
If you're going to nitpick leverage stats for Cabrera, Trout has a huge edge in defense and baserunning.

I made note of that in my large post. I understand that Trout has a huge edge in defense and baserunning, but I don't weigh that as heavily as I do offensive production/production in big spots.

I think hitting is more important than defense and baserunning. Not saying the latter two aren't important, though.

Like, I'll take a great hitter who is a bad defender/baserunner over a bad hitter who is a great defender/baserunner 10 out of 10 times.

Now I completely understand that Trout is a damn fine hitter. I'm just saying that I, personally, weigh hitting more than I do fielding and baserunning.
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Can you provide examples of guys who could do it in the 8th and not the 9th, though?

I don't think we have to look much further than our own franchise to see guys (Lindstrom, Nunez) who were okay in the 7th and 8th but blew chunks in the 9th.

Lindstrom is actually a perfect example. When he's not closing, he's actually a solid reliever.

In the two seasons that he closed: ERAs of 5.89 and 4.39.

The seasons he didn't? 3.09, 3.14, 3.00, 2.91.

I don't know why I didn't use Lindstrom as my example earlier.

[Erick]

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I don't think we have to look much further than our own franchise to see guys (Lindstrom, Nunez) who were okay in the 7th and 8th but blew chunks in the 9th.

Lindstrom is actually a perfect example. When he's not closing, he's actually a solid reliever.

In the two seasons that he closed: ERAs of 5.89 and 4.39.

The seasons he didn't? 3.09, 3.14, 3.00, 2.91.

I don't know why I didn't use Lindstrom as my example earlier.

Matt Lindstrom falls into the platoon problem category that I mentioned before. If he's facing mostly righties, he looks like a better pitcher.

Also, if you look at the bottom line, the two years he spent closing, Lindstrom saved approximately 83% of his chances.

I think the problem there is that Lindstrom just isn't all that great as his 1.41 career WHIP shows.

The Leo Nunez one that people like to bring up makes little sense, as well. Nunez worst season as a Marlin came as a setup man. He's never been good and tends to fall apart later on in the season. It's been the case with him regardless of his role.

I think it's just easier to remember blown saves in the 9th because they happen at the end.

[Bobbob1313]

Matt Lindstrom, for his career, in save situations: 3.63 ERA, 1.388 WHIP in 111 2/3 innings
Matt Lindstrom, for his career, in non-save situations: 3.72 ERA, 1.424 WHIP in 210 2/3 innings

[Erick]

Same with Nunez.

Save situations: 4.34 ERA, 1.312 WHIP
Non-save situations: 4.38 ERA, 1.318 WHIP

[Bobbob1313]

http://angelswin.com/forum/forums/th...sts=23&start=1

In response to the question, "is Trout a bit overrated lately?"

And his WAR has been stuck at 10.3 for awhile.

The internet has everything, you guys.

[Valid]

Matt Lindstrom, for his career, in save situations: 3.63 ERA, 1.388 WHIP in 111 2/3 innings
Matt Lindstrom, for his career, in non-save situations: 3.72 ERA, 1.424 WHIP in 210 2/3 innings

I don't see how in the world this is possible because Lindstrom looked to be pretty much the worst pitcher in the world as SOON as we threw him into the closer role, but numbers don't lie, I guess.

I'm just curious as to how his numbers are that poor in non-save situations, because in the years that he had little or no save opportunities, his stats were pretty good.

[MiamiHomer]