2012 MLB Season Game Thread: September

[Bobbob1313]

I like when Mark Reynolds makes a diving stop, and casual fans on the twitter say he is a good fielder.

[HUGG]

Saunders drew a walk and then got caught stealing to end the game

never change, Mariners.

[Party]

It's one of the capitals of white people if you mean "totally not one of the capitals of white people"

Canada 2006 Census                  Population   % of Total Pop
South Asian                            298,370               12
Chinese                                283,075             11.4
Black                                  208,555              8.4
Filipino                               102,555              4.1
Latin American                          64,855              2.6
Southeast Asian                         37,495              1.5
Arab                                    22,485              0.9
West Asian                              42,755              1.7
Korean                                  34,220              1.4
Japanese                                11,965              0.5
Mixed visible minority                  31,100              1.3
Other visible minority                  25,195                1
Total visible minority population    1,162,630             46.9

Toronto is one of the most diverse cities in the world.
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49% of the population of Toronto wasn't born in Canada.


Miami-Dade County is 73% white. Toronto is 52% white.
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http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/b...n-bundy-091912

White Hispanics make up a portion of that 73%.

Miami-Dade County is 64.5% Hispanic, 19.3% black, and 16% non-Hispanic white.

51% of Miami-Dade residents were born outside the US.

71% of MDC residents know a language other than English.

"White people" are very much a small minority down here.

[Chewford]

Why are Hispanic whites not "white"? I never understood that.

[Ramp]

So who wins the AL MVP and if Cabs wins the Triple Crown, you have to believe the voters go with him regardless, right?

[Valid]

Cabrera should win it either way, in my opinion. If he wins the Triple Crown, he is a surefire lock.

[Ramp]

Why do you say he should win it either way?

[nny]

If it doesn't go to Trout, that's a damn shame.

Trout completely trumps miggy in everything outside of hitting; Their difference in fielding and baserunning is extraordinary. And when it comes to hitting, Miggy does not have much of an advantage at all (Well, outside of hitting his wife) - OPS+ of 170 v.s. 168, barely anything. There's quite a difference in the two parks (DET plays in a hitters park, LAA in a pitchers park), don't just look at their raw stats (Though even then, still not much of a difference)

Even if Migs wins the triple crown he should not win the MVP. Plus fuck the triple crown; RBI, AVG, and counting HRs, oh my

Trout a legit present day Mickey Mantle (Compare their age 20 slash lines). Respect.

[emkayseven]

Trout and it shouldn't be any question, Triple Crown be damned

what he's done in a season that didn't even include the month of April is amazing
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this is worth reading: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...asuring-value/

excerpts:

Plate Appearances: Cabrera, +60
Singles: Cabrera, +2
Doubles: Cabrera, +14
Triples: Trout, +6
Home Runs: Cabrera, +13
Walks + Hit By Pitch: Cabrera, +1
Ground Into Double Plays: Cabrera, +21
Total Bases: Cabrera, +64
Outs Made: Cabrera, +54

Because Trout got called up to the Majors at the end of April, Cabrera has played in 21 additional games, so most of the counting stats go in his favor. And, Morosi has a legitimate point when he talks about number of games played, as we can’t simply ignore the fact that Cabrera has played an additional three weeks worth of games, creating value for his team in the process.

However, that last category is the one that never gets mentioned, but is perhaps the one that speaks the loudest out of all of them. Cabrera’s additional playing time has earned him an additional 60 trips to the plate, but in those 60 extra plate appearances, he’s made 54 extra outs. If we’re going to depend on counting stats to measure the difference in value from a quantity standpoint, we cannot ignore the fact that Cabrera’s propensity for hitting into double plays — he leads the American League with 28 GIDPs — has had a significant negative impact on the Tigers offense. We cannot simply count up the number of additional positive benefits that the Tigers have gotten from Cabrera’s playing time advantage without also accounting for the negatives.

Left out of the net difference table above were things like stolen bases and other runner advancements, but of course those have value, and even the staunchest Cabrera supporter should admit that Trout should get some credit for the value of his speed. So, let’s look at the net differences in things that have to do with baserunning.

Stolen Bases: Trout, +42
Caught Stealing: Trout, +3
Other Outs Made On Base: Cabrera, +2
First to Third on a Single: Trout, +13
Second to Home on a Single: Trout, +5

This is Trout in a landslide, as you’d expect. Not only has Trout put himself in scoring position far more often by stealing second base, he’s also scored more often when his teammates have gotten hits and he’s been on base. The fact that Trout has 18 additional runs scored despite playing in those 21 fewer games shows the magnitude of the difference that baserunning can make, and it’s of course silly to only consider runs created with the bat and ignore those with the legs. Trout has scored 45% of the times he’s been on base — easily the highest of any regular in the AL — compared to a league average of just 31% and Cabrera’s 28% total. Yes, some of that is having Albert Pujols hit behind him, but of course Prince Fielder hits behind Cabrera, mitigating the argument that run scored percentage is solely a function of the guy hitting behind you.

Look, even here at FanGraphs, we don’t think the MVP award should just be the WAR of the Year award. We’ve said repeatedly that WAR is a useful tool for identifying groups of players who have had similar years, and it takes a precision that WAR is not capable of providing to determine the differences between guys who are within the same overall range of value. The problem with the argument surrounding Trout and Cabrera is that they’re not in the overall same range of value. Mike Trout is a group unto himself this year – a fantastic defensive center fielder who also happens to be the best baserunner in baseball and who has hit nearly as well as anyone else alive.

You don’t have to buy into WAR as the be-all, end-all statistic to know that Trout has been the AL’s best player by a country mile this year. Simply look at all the facts, and not just the three that were treated as important 100 years ago. Morosi is right about one thing – whether Miguel Cabrera wins the triple crown or not should be irrelevant. The AL MVP is obvious. It’s just not Miguel Cabrera.

[Valid]

Maybe I evaluate MVPs differently than a lot of people do, but I think coming through for your team in big spots should play an absolutely crucial role in determining who the most valuable player truly is.

I'm just going to throw a whole mess of stats in to make my point:

RISP - this one obviously isn't a big difference; just wait

Cabrera: .360/.419/.579 (.998); 14.6 K%
Trout: .333/.380/.569 (.948);

RISP w/ 2 out

Cabrera: .457/.519/.783 (1.302) [!!!]; 15.2 K%
Trout: .298/.431/.362 (.793); 31.9 K%

Late inning pressure

Cabrera: .382/.466/.763 (1.229); 11.8 K%
Trout: .306/.386/.429 (.815); 28.6 K%

Late inning pressure w/ runners on

Cabrera: .424/.500/.939 (1.439)
Trout: .353/.455/.353 (.808)

7th inning or later

Cabrera: .345/.420/.691 (1.111); 14.5 K%
Trout: .265/.374/.449 (.823); 33.1 K%

High leverage situations

Cabrera: .386/.481/.795 (1.277)
Trout: .343/.341/.543 (.884)

September:

Cabrera: .371/.438/.823 (1.261); .452 ISO (!!!)
Trout: .273/.368/.394 (.762); .121 ISO

I know some of you are going to point out sample size, but that doesn't apply to someone like Cabrera because he has been doing this kind of thing his entire career. He has always put up HUGE numbers in these types of situations, and this year might be his best yet.

Also, the fact that Cabrera is doing it in September during the playoff push should be a significant factor in the voting, in my opinion. The .452 ISO he has posted this month is absolutely absurd. Meanwhile, Trout has a .762 OPS. I'm sorry, but an MVP should be able to get it done when it counts, and while Trout's numbers are not horrendous this month, they don't even come close to screaming "MVP."

As far as the rest of the clutch numbers go, notice how Trout actually becomes a significantly worse hitter in those spots. It's not just in one or two categories, either. It's in every single one. What kind of MVP basically shrinks in big situations? I mean, Cabrera nearly doubles up Trout in OPS with RISP with two outs. I think that should count for an awful lot when deciding who the MVP is.

Again, I'm not saying Trout's numbers are bad in those situations, because they clearly aren't. I'm just saying that they are worse than his full numbers and that Cabrera has just been a lot better.

Yes, I understand Trout has wheels and is a monster defensively, two things Cabrera obviously does not possess, but I don't think those two things put together make up for the kind of season Cabrera is having offensively. I also know that RBI are dependent on your teammates getting on base, but I mean, Cabrera has driven in 130 runs this season. Trout has driven in 77.

It's not like the Angels don't have anyone else offensively, either. They have Pujols, Trumbo, Hunter, and Morales. A legitimate argument can be made that Trout has even more protection in this lineup than Miguel does.

[Bobbob1313]

I know some of you are going to point out sample size, but that doesn't apply to someone like Cabrera because he has been doing this kind of thing his entire career. He has always put up HUGE numbers in these types of situations, and this year might be his best yet.

He's always put up huge numbers in those situations, because he has always put up huge numbers in every situation. For his career, his production is practically the same in most types of situation.

The fact that he is "having his best season yet" is almost entirely due to sample sizes of only a handful of at bats in some instances. That is not a statistically worthwhile argument.

[nny]

I think it always "counts"

A win in September is worth the same in May

[Valid]

He's always put up huge numbers in those situations, because he has always put up huge numbers in every situation. For his career, his production is practically the same in most types of situation.

The fact that he is "having his best season yet" is almost entirely due to sample sizes of only a handful of at bats in some instances. That is not a statistically worthwhile argument.

His numbers increase in those situations, though (unlike Trout). He doesn't post 1.302 OPSes for a full season.
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I think it always "counts"

A win in September is worth the same in May

Yes, but it would be silly to say that there is as much pressure in May as there is in September.

[nny]

We're talking about the majors leagues.

You don't make it there if pressure affects you
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also at comparing RBI totals of a lead off hitter to a #3 hitter

[Valid]

lol. It is very naive to think that major-leaguers are somehow immune to pressure.

That's like saying any good reliever can be a closer. We all know that is not true.