Yoenis Cespedes: Signs w/ A's for 4/36

[lou]

Get him.

Obvious risk in getting him, but I can't help but think how fun it would be to have two guys who can hit the ball 500+ feet with relative ease.

Who cares if its batting practice.

This is going to be atrocious if they give him $50-60 like some of the projections.

I can only hope this is the media/agents bumping it up, just how they all were spouting off Strausburg was going to get $30 million and got half of that.

[dim]

It's going to be 5 years, around 30-35 million dollars. Just wait.

[emkayseven]

I think if it's under $60 they get him. I don't think it's a wise baseball move at all but like pujols it is a move that pays for itself

[Party]

I don't think this will pay for itself like the Pujols contract. The Cubans who would buy tickets have already bought tickets. Cespedes isn't going to take this team on another level in LA. This should be a baseball move.

[Erick]

I think if it's under $60 they get him. I don't think it's a wise baseball move at all but like pujols it is a move that pays for itself

If he sucks, no one will care. It will just be a bad move. The only publicity he'd get is from other Cubans calling him a communist for not wanting to live down here.

[emkayseven]

I think it pays for itself without question. Let's say he turns into nothing special and becomes Angel Pagan. That's a 1 WAR player. A win is worth roughly $4 million (now) and will likely go up over the life of a 5 year contract. Let's say it averages out to be 4.5M over the life of the contract. That's $22.5 million in value right there. Now let's say he decides to be Drew Stubbs, possibly a realistic comp because of the power and speed and low contact and OBP. Stubbs is a 2.5 WAR guy. Over a 5 year contract that's worth $56 million. Contract has paid for itself strictly in baseball terms.

So even at the BAD comp - I mean, how upset would we be, and how fooled would the baseball scouts be, if he became Angel Pagan? - he's worth close to $25 million. No, you aren't going to make $40 million on jersey sales - but you will male a lot. From what I understand (someone correct me if I'm wrong) teams get revenue from stadium sales but split online sales. So all those Cespedes jerseys, tshirts, pennants, pins, etc go into club revenue.

Then you have one of the assumptions on here that annoys me to no end - that every Cuban outside of Cuba lives in Miami. They don't. You think no Cubans are going to drive down from Tampa to see him play? When the Cuban families who have moved to New York or Jersey or California or Texas come to visit abuela in Miami, you don't think they'll stop off at the ballpark to see the Marlins?

There's also the most unquantifiable factor of all - the future of Cuban baseball. Even discounting the fact that relations could change in the next decade - and I think they will - there will always be Cuban defectors. And I think having a premier defector would help the team acquire others down the line. Not just premier ones. Guys like Alexei Ramirez and Kendry(s) Morales and Yunel Escobar were not super heralded coming out of Cuba, they were stars but not advertised as super prospects like Aroldis and now Yoenis.

And finally, you have the advertising possibilities, the new face of a franchise, etc, if he becomes a star.

I think all told, given all those things, the contract will pay for itself at or under $60. I would rather get a starter, sure, but business-wise I think it's the best move.

[lou]

I couldn't disagree more with every point.

I think it would be terrible to have a 1 WAR player on the bench for $7 million range a year in a worst case scenario. Those guys are not worth $4 million roughly also. You don't see Mike Fontenot and Mike Cameron signing contracts for that do you? There are an endless amount of guys who can do that for near the minimum in free agency. If you're spending $7 million a year, you need at least a 2.5 WAR player at a position of need. It's arguable how much a position of need CF is also, as Bonifacio should hold his own and Coghlan/Petersen are not completely useless. It's not unrealistic to expect a 2.5-3.5 WAR out of CF for the Marlins next year, which is real solid. Cespedes only really upgrades this team if he is immediately Chris Young/BJ Upton.

No, I do not think Cubans who live in Tampa will drive to Miami to see the Marlins just because of Cespedes. (Especially since they play the Rays all the time). But I do think those who come visit will want to stop by a brand new ballpark that has future HR champ Mike Stanton, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez on the team. Cespedes is not changing much, the team has "draw" players. Maybe not Pujols, but pretty significant ones.

As for defectors preferring Miami, that is going to happen regardless as some guys will want to "stay close to home." But you are kidding yourself if the bottom line isn't going to be who offers the most money. This is also ignoring the possibility of an international draft, which I have to imagine comes into play in the next decade as all the smaller teams revolt with the japanese posting system/large market franchises getting every defector.

As for his heraldedness, relatively no one had heard of this guy even a year ago, unlike other international signings. That's a bit scary as he is (allegedly) 26, and just all of a sudden he's a super prospect? Baseball scouts are whores. They would have been all over this kid at 19 if he was the natural. Look at Soler right now. BA is writing articles about how awesome he is and would be a top 15 prospect in baseball. This is a very real thing .Hype is what it is. Cespedes marketing people are doing a fantastic job. That youtube video is hilarious.

Saying that, Kendry/Escobar were significantly younger so the lack of hype is expected and played multiple seasons in the minors to adjust to the american game. If Cepedes was 22, I'd have worlds less problems with this to stash him in AA/AAA for 2 years to hit breaking pitches. Ramirez has done a solid job, but he was never viewed as a "500 foot" HR slugging animal to grab the hype as Cespedes is now. Also, his value is mainly derived from his defense/base running/other SS in baseball suck right now. Cespedes doesn't have that luxury as an outfielder. He is very unlikely to be that dominant of a defender at an outfield slot to make himself a well above average player barely hitting a .750 OPS. That's Cody Ross land.

The faces of the franchise are Jose, Hanley, Mike, Josh, and Logan (everyone can cringe at this, but his "media suaveness" is making him a name and he is going to be good to back it up). It would take A LOT for this guy to break into that class of player.

Business wise, the best decision is to win, because this town likes winners. If this team wants to win more games, they upgrade Volstad and get real bench players and not Aaron Rowand and Nick Green. That will impact the the on the field product much more.
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Also, I'm not saying I think this guy is going to fail. I'm just saying it's not worth a likely $40-45 million gamble. This franchise clearly has new money to burn, but this isn't the smart move. They still have to manage a payroll, and this is very expensive and very risky. They need sure things to counter act Reyes/Buerhle backloading, which coincides with Stanton/Morrison arbitration which is what they call a "fuck ton" of future payroll.

[Swifty]

For every dollar they're willing to give him, just give it to Stanton.

[Ramp]

what swift said

[Erick]

I think it pays for itself without question. Let's say he turns into nothing special and becomes Angel Pagan. That's a 1 WAR player. A win is worth roughly $4 million (now) and will likely go up over the life of a 5 year contract. Let's say it averages out to be 4.5M over the life of the contract. That's $22.5 million in value right there. Now let's say he decides to be Drew Stubbs, possibly a realistic comp because of the power and speed and low contact and OBP. Stubbs is a 2.5 WAR guy. Over a 5 year contract that's worth $56 million. Contract has paid for itself strictly in baseball terms.

So even at the BAD comp - I mean, how upset would we be, and how fooled would the baseball scouts be, if he became Angel Pagan? - he's worth close to $25 million. No, you aren't going to make $40 million on jersey sales - but you will male a lot. From what I understand (someone correct me if I'm wrong) teams get revenue from stadium sales but split online sales. So all those Cespedes jerseys, tshirts, pennants, pins, etc go into club revenue.

Then you have one of the assumptions on here that annoys me to no end - that every Cuban outside of Cuba lives in Miami. They don't. You think no Cubans are going to drive down from Tampa to see him play? When the Cuban families who have moved to New York or Jersey or California or Texas come to visit abuela in Miami, you don't think they'll stop off at the ballpark to see the Marlins?

There's also the most unquantifiable factor of all - the future of Cuban baseball. Even discounting the fact that relations could change in the next decade - and I think they will - there will always be Cuban defectors. And I think having a premier defector would help the team acquire others down the line. Not just premier ones. Guys like Alexei Ramirez and Kendry(s) Morales and Yunel Escobar were not super heralded coming out of Cuba, they were stars but not advertised as super prospects like Aroldis and now Yoenis.

And finally, you have the advertising possibilities, the new face of a franchise, etc, if he becomes a star.

I think all told, given all those things, the contract will pay for itself at or under $60. I would rather get a starter, sure, but business-wise I think it's the best move.

To answer that question, I'd say no. Not if he's Angel Pagan, that is.

[emkayseven]

If he turns out to be Angel Pagan, no...but I'd imagine there's a good 2 years before that judgement is made

Look, I agree that it is not at all a good baseball move, and there might even be better business decisions, but if this is Loria "special money" because he and the other Harvard grads have determined they can make it back then I understand it

[lou]

As for Stanton, I know we have done this before, but realistic comparables

Year 3 - J Ups $500k + $1.25 signing, Cargo $1 + $3 mil signing, Kemp minimum
Year 4 - J. Ups $4.25, Cargo $5, Kemp $4
Year 5 - J Ups $6.75, Cargo $7.5, Kemp $6.95
Year 6 - J Ups $9.75, Cargo $10.5, Kemp $10
Year 7 - J Ups $14.25, Cargo $16, Kemp $20
Year 8 - J Ups $14.5, Cargo $17, Kemp $21
Year 9 - J Ups FA, Cargo $20, Kemp $21

Easily the comps for stud young outfielder here both in talent/upside and being current. Stanton is lower in service time and pedigree than any of these guys at the signing of their contract, so it's likely Stanton will be on the "low" side of this even including general inflation. Other factor to consider, next contract. Stanton's agent will want him to become a free agent in his prime, so year deal. Last factor, Marlins will likely refuse any deal that doesn't include two FA years, and I'm sure they'd like an option for a third.

Stanton is currently in year 2, very unscientifically doing this

Year 2 (22) - $750k
Year 3 (23) - $1
Year 4 (24) - $4.25
Year 5 (25) - $7
Year 6 (26) - $10
Year 7 (27) - $12
Year 8 (28) - $15
Year 9 (29) - $20 option / $3 mil buyout

7/$53 or 8/$70

That means Mike makes roughly $54 million first 8 years in league. Comparing them to the above

J Ups first 8 - $52 million, guaranteed AFTER year 2, (i.e. for stanton post 2012). This also does not include his first round massive $6 million signing bonus, just MLB salary
Cargo first 8 - $61 million, guaranteed AFTER year 2
Kemp first 8 - $65 million, most of it not guaranteed until after year 5, and of course he has another $100 million or so on his backend deal

I have a hard time seeing him turning down that deal when he gets it a year before Upton and Cargo, and is still in the same ballpark monetarily (and even ahead of Upton). It's a trade off between service time and security. And hell, add an extra $1 mil on year 5-buyout in the 9, and who is crying at 7/$58? Likewise, Marlins get their free agency years, and Stanton becomes a free agent at 29 or 30, meaning he has the chance for the mega deal if he pans out.

Total win-win. And to bring this round circle, if these "peter gammons" tweets saying he expects over $50 million for Cespedes are true, it's not really a choice of who is the better expenditure of money. Stanton will sleepwalk a 3+ WAR for the life of this hitting .210 with his power and defense (meaning the only really year the Marlins are getting screwed is year 8 if he doesn't pan). Let alone if he hits .260 (or better), Marlins would be saving millions per season.

This is a no brainer if there is only so much money to go around.
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Also, it might be a good idea to severely lowball Morrison right now too. I think we all expect him to be a bitter hitter than .247, which could skyrocket his slash line to .370/.500+ land real fast. I think I was against giving him a deal until another year, but now based on the bankroll opening up and seeing those backloaded deals, it might be really smart to lock in Morrison to to a 6 + option 7 deal (1 free agency guaranteed) to really try to balance out payroll.

You could probably follow the same scale (as he is currently an outfielder) and do something like

$550k, $750k, $3.25, $5.25, $7.45, $9.75, option $14 / buyout $3

That's 6/$30, 7/$41, for one or two free agency years. That seems VERY reasonable to me compared to the other cited deal. Logan would be a free agent in his prime around 30 as well. This goes up a lot if he does what we think he's doing to do next year. Just saying.

[CrimsonCane]

If he turns out to be Angel Pagan, no...but I'd imagine there's a good 2 years before that judgement is made

Look, I agree that it is not at all a good baseball move, and there might even be better business decisions, but if this is Loria "special money" because he and the other Harvard grads have determined they can make it back then I understand it

He went to Yale. Might as well have gone to Clown College.

[Jay]

He went to Yale. Might as well have gone to Clown College.

Yeah despite being the most difficult of the ivy league schools to get accepted into, you are basically guaranteed to obtain a degree once there.

[tjfla]

They have a 40 million dollar deal out for him. The divide seems to be not if they want him or not(They DO),the divide is if they should increase the offer.

Some want us to offer 50-60 million
Some want us to keep current offer and spend 15-20 million on Soler too
Some want us to just keep the current offer