September 2019 Game Thread

[lou]

I'm thinking 3 years - $16 million per is what I'd be ok with. He's going to get a lot more than that I would have to think.

I suspect it's a higher annual value for 3 (to be a FA again at 31 where you can expect another healthy 3-4 year deal), or a lower annual value (but still high) for 5-6 (to get him signed for another prime year in exchange for forsaking free agency at 31 years old). I think Boras will avoid a 4 year deal like a plague to not take him back into free agency at 32. He'll demand getting the full prime years of 28-32/33 signed. The good news for the Marlins here, Boras does like advising guys to take the money and let's get you back in to free agency, so maybe the 3 year deal would work and the Marlins can buy love.

I honestly don't care about any money they spend for the next 3 years with payroll where it is. They could pay Castellanos 3/$66 (not advocating) and it wouldn't stop them from doing anything they wanted to do. That 4th year money becomes a little interesting as some arbitration years will start popping up and they presumably will have signed a major FA by then, and you definitely want to avoid 5 absent a superstar player who you know will perform those years. They shouldn't do that absent a really below market AJ Pollock kind of deal.

I am totally fine with a healthy 3 year deal for Castellanos. That plus Castro for 2, and filling out the roster with 3+ solid veteran types will really do wonders for 2020. Longterm:

Aug 1, 2021:

Alfaro, "Whoever"
Lewin (Anderson, Castellanos, Rojas backups)
Isan, Berti
Jazz, Rojas
Castro
Anderson
Monte, Sierra/Miller
Castellanos, Sanchez

And Castro and Rojas are off payroll in 2022 and sub-in Bleday and hopefully Devers.
And if you get the NL DH, you have a perfect roster on paper moving Castellanos or Sanchez there.
And if you have too many OF and they all worked out, trade one for pitching (along with Cooper who is gone in this hypothetical), and VVM, Scott and Misner are presumably in AA/AAA

Rendon is a better idea, but Castellanos/Castro is very interesting if you believe Castellanos is going to rake and Castro has made some sort of improvement last 300 PA.

[Nick]

Urena can go away please.

[fauowls44]

Urena can go away please.

He's been dreadful in the closers role. It's disappointing because I thought he'd be good out of the pen.

On the bright side, the Royals and Orioles both won, so they picked up a game on KC for the 3rd pick of the draft and there is still an outside shot at #2.

Also, Sandy continued his strong finish to the season. He looks like a legit #2/3 starter.

[tjfla]

Detroit didn't exactly get a huge ransom for Castellanos when they dealt him. I'm not saying I'm against signing him, but it's gotta be at the right price/years.

No ransom because he is a FA and thats what everyone is saying. Do we sign him at 5/100 HELL NO but at 3/45 u jump all over him

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Urena can go away please.

He is likely gone in offseason. The goal was to showcase him to teams as someone who could look great out of the pen too(Failed BAD). He isn't gonna bring back tons but u will get a 2 prospects and maybe some IFA/draft pick in return

Oakland for arm(Holmes or Kaprielian) and bat(got C/MIF/OF)or 2 for Urena and Austin Brice

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I suspect it's a higher annual value for 3 (to be a FA again at 31 where you can expect another healthy 3-4 year deal), or a lower annual value (but still high) for 5-6 (to get him signed for another prime year in exchange for forsaking free agency at 31 years old). I think Boras will avoid a 4 year deal like a plague to not take him back into free agency at 32. He'll demand getting the full prime years of 28-32/33 signed. The good news for the Marlins here, Boras does like advising guys to take the money and let's get you back in to free agency, so maybe the 3 year deal would work and the Marlins can buy love.

I honestly don't care about any money they spend for the next 3 years with payroll where it is. They could pay Castellanos 3/$66 (not advocating) and it wouldn't stop them from doing anything they wanted to do. That 4th year money becomes a little interesting as some arbitration years will start popping up and they presumably will have signed a major FA by then, and you definitely want to avoid 5 absent a superstar player who you know will perform those years. They shouldn't do that absent a really below market AJ Pollock kind of deal.

I am totally fine with a healthy 3 year deal for Castellanos. That plus Castro for 2, and filling out the roster with 3+ solid veteran types will really do wonders for 2020. Longterm:

Aug 1, 2021:

Alfaro, "Whoever"
Lewin (Anderson, Castellanos, Rojas backups)
Isan, Berti
Jazz, Rojas
Castro
Anderson
Monte, Sierra/Miller
Castellanos, Sanchez

And Castro and Rojas are off payroll in 2022 and sub-in Bleday and hopefully Devers.
And if you get the NL DH, you have a perfect roster on paper moving Castellanos or Sanchez there.
And if you have too many OF and they all worked out, trade one for pitching (along with Cooper who is gone in this hypothetical), and VVM, Scott and Misner are presumably in AA/AAA

Rendon is a better idea, but Castellanos/Castro is very interesting if you believe Castellanos is going to rake and Castro has made some sort of improvement last 300 PA.

Depending on what they do in the draft they could have Austin Martin at 3B by May 2022

Wouldn't be surprising to see them do a Gallen/Richards type deal next year as well. They have Caleb/Sandy/Pablo/Yamamoto/Dugger/Elieser/Sixto/Cabrera/Guzman/Garrett/Neidert all ready by next year.(Garrett/Guzman/Cabrera behind rest)

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We also have the #3 Rule 5 Pick which we are expected to use. Teams like LAD/SD/NYY/TB/Houston/Clev all have a crunch

[lou]

He is likely gone in offseason. The goal was to showcase him to teams as someone who could look great out of the pen too(Failed BAD). He isn't gonna bring back tons but u will get a 2 prospects and maybe some IFA/draft pick in return

Oakland for arm(Holmes or Kaprielian) and bat(got C/MIF/OF)or 2 for Urena and Austin Brice



Wouldn't be surprising to see them do a Gallen/Richards type deal next year as well. They have Caleb/Sandy/Pablo/Yamamoto/Dugger/Elieser/Sixto/Cabrera/Guzman/Garrett/Neidert all ready by next year.(Garrett/Guzman/Cabrera behind rest)

I think you keep Urena, and if awful in spring training you can DFA for a smidge of salary ala Straily. I suspect Urena will revert to a "good # 5 SP" pretty quickly though and that's fine for next year. If there is a trade with someone, sure. But they still need a veteran innings eater for next year.

They will need EVERYONE to work out too, to do another Gallen and/or Richards kind of trade. There are going to be injuries, some of those guys aren't that good (Dugger, etc.), and some need to be moved to the bullpen ala how the Cardinals operate and how they always have awesome pitchers. They probably have "just enough" arms right now to pencil in a real staff and still need to strive to find the next Richards and Andersons for free out there as they likely need a few more secondary arms for depth. Likewise, they have an heir apparent at every position that will be MLB ready Summer 2021 latest, with additional depth behind them in the minors (Devers, Nunez, Scott, Misner, etc.), so you don't need to trade any of these arms to address any other organizational need.

It's time to keep everyone and use free agency to plug holes. If Sixto, Sandy, Pablo, Caleb, and Neidert are so good they lock down a rotation in a year, send Guzman, Rogers, and Cabrera to the bullpen to throw fire. It'll work itself out mix/matching whatever names end up in the rotation.

[Maddawg]

Also, do we think the guys develop faster if there are actual players around them and not the -7 WAR collection of Granderson, Prado, Herrera, Riddle, Brinson, etc.? I'd LOVE Isan to be sandwiched between Anderson, Castro and Castellanos, Cooper.

I think this is a big deal. They say they are about turning around the culture. Well the culture of losing is still here, and looks worse than ever. I am not sure ignoring the MLB product this much is what was the best way to turn the franchise around.

Was it just finances that caused them to go this route ? If so, then you should have had a better plan in place with allocating enough money to at least try to compete a little bit. It seems disingenuous to not only me, but to a lot of the public so far. And if you were so naive as to think people would flock to the stadium just because Loria was gone, you should have rethought that after the 1st year.

Bringing back a one year older Neil Walker is not turning around the culture. I do like it if they can bring in Castellanos. He seems like a good fit for Miami on many levels but will he flourish here without others around him ? A man can only be on an island for so long.

[lou]

I think this is a big deal. They say they are about turning around the culture. Well the culture of losing is still here, and looks worse than ever. I am not sure ignoring the MLB product this much is what was the best way to turn the franchise around.

Was it just finances that caused them to go this route ? If so, then you should have had a better plan in place with allocating enough money to at least try to compete a little bit. It seems disingenuous to not only me, but to a lot of the public so far. And if you were so naive as to think people would flock to the stadium just because Loria was gone, you should have rethought that after the 1st year.

Bringing back a one year older Neil Walker is not turning around the culture. I do like it if they can bring in Castellanos. He seems like a good fit for Miami on many levels but will he flourish here without others around him ? A man can only be on an island for so long.

It's either 20 or 21. The Astros did a full 3 year tank job, but they haven't had the backstory of the Marlins. I'm worried they push it one more (which does make sense on a very long term let's create draft capital level), but they really got to do something as there is a real fan component. I can wait another 100 loss season because I am a baseball loving swamp monster who can't quit and will be happy with a juggernaut in 4 years, I'm not sure the new ownership group can.

They practically have $40-45 million to spend on Urena, Conley, and free agents. That's still going to be an outrageously low payroll, but if we're talking 2-3 starting position players/pitchers, and 2-4 bench/bullpen arms with that money, they really can do a lot assuming Urena, Conley, and all the bench/bullpen guys are cumulatively going to cost under $12-15 million. The can spend $30+ million on 2-3 guys, and add in another $5 if Urena is shipped out and another $1+ if Conley is shipped out/DFA'd.

I can understand not spending all of it on Rendon/Cole (if either would even come), but I like the idea of two of Castro, Castellanos/Ozuna/maybe Puig, and Z. Wheeler with that money and that'll help a lot along with retaining Urena/Conley/building out a final roster with say Walker, Romo, and Maybin types. I mean, even if Walker, Romo, and Maybin are cumulatively 1 WAR (2.7 WAR in 2019 but that's inflated with Maybin having a truly great year for him), that's a big improvement over Granderson, Prado, and T. Guerrero (-3.2 WAR. Negative!).

They'll be looking pretty good on paper in 21 once Lewin, Jazz, Sanchez, Monte, Sixto, Neidert, Cabrera, Guzman, and Rogers show up, and maybe Bleday, Garrett, Scott, and VVM are ready too. Spending that money in 2020 on 2-3 year deals won't prevent them from doing anything. I think they gotta do it. Helps the fans, helps the team morale, gives Isan lineup protection and Sandy knowledge he doesn't have to be perfect because they might not be bottom 2 in runs scored, etc.

Only debate to me is, do we trust the new Castro? Is Castellanos going to be good enough at 1B/LF/RF to not be a total liability? Do we believe Puig isn't an asshole? Do we trust Wheeler's arm to hold up? That's it. Picking the right ones.

[Lee Stone]

Castellanos: .289 27 HR .337 OBP and .863 OPS. That's what some want to pay $15-17M a year for in free agency. There is another way to go.

Mets targeted JD Davis in last year's off season. Great AAA numbers, a year younger than Castellanos, and six years of control. Biggest factor: blocked by a strong Houston lineup. At the time of the Met acquisition for low level prospects, even I suggested that Davis would have been the best hitter in the Marlins batting order. His numbers this season: .308, 20 HR, .370 OBP and .888 OPS. He did that in 200 less AB than Castellanos.

Teams like the Yankees, Houston, Cubs, etc., who have an abundance of highly paid regulars, are places to shop for mid-twenties hitters who have nowhere to go with their present teams. That's where my focus would be. *** And there are more Jon Bertis out there!

[Maddawg]

It's either 20 or 21. The Astros did a full 3 year tank job, but they haven't had the backstory of the Marlins. I'm worried they push it one more (which does make sense on a very long term let's create draft capital level), but they really got to do something as there is a real fan component. I can wait another 100 loss season because I am a baseball loving swamp monster who can't quit and will be happy with a juggernaut in 4 years, I'm not sure the new ownership group can.

They practically have $40-45 million to spend on Urena, Conley, and free agents. That's still going to be an outrageously low payroll, but if we're talking 2-3 starting position players/pitchers, and 2-4 bench/bullpen arms with that money, they really can do a lot assuming Urena, Conley, and all the bench/bullpen guys are cumulatively going to cost under $12-15 million. The can spend $30+ million on 2-3 guys, and add in another $5 if Urena is shipped out and another $1+ if Conley is shipped out/DFA'd.

I can understand not spending all of it on Rendon/Cole (if either would even come), but I like the idea of two of Castro, Castellanos/Ozuna/maybe Puig, and Z. Wheeler with that money and that'll help a lot along with retaining Urena/Conley/building out a final roster with say Walker, Romo, and Maybin types. I mean, even if Walker, Romo, and Maybin are cumulatively 1 WAR (2.7 WAR in 2019 but that's inflated with Maybin having a truly great year for him), that's a big improvement over Granderson, Prado, and T. Guerrero (-3.2 WAR. Negative!).

They'll be looking pretty good on paper in 21 once Lewin, Jazz, Sanchez, Monte, Sixto, Neidert, Cabrera, Guzman, and Rogers show up, and maybe Bleday, Garrett, Scott, and VVM are ready too. Spending that money in 2020 on 2-3 year deals won't prevent them from doing anything. I think they gotta do it. Helps the fans, helps the team morale, gives Isan lineup protection and Sandy knowledge he doesn't have to be perfect because they might not be bottom 2 in runs scored, etc.

Only debate to me is, do we trust the new Castro? Is Castellanos going to be good enough at 1B/LF/RF to not be a total liability? Do we believe Puig isn't an asshole? Do we trust Wheeler's arm to hold up? That's it. Picking the right ones.

There is a big "IF" too on all this.....do all those guys you mentioned make decent MLB players ? Just because they are highly touted doesn't mean they will make it. Of Diaz, Sanchez, VVM, Bleday, Guzman, Chisholm, Neidert, etc....if half of them make it as competant MLB players they will have done an outstanding job....the odds on all your trade/draft picks making it and being better than average, are not all that good. It's a crapshoot even more difficult than the NBA or NFL or even NHL, or so it seems. They already flamed out & plotzed on at least one, Lewis Brinson.

Will these guys have the money to spend before they can attract the public back to games ? What is still the holdup on naming rights for the stadium ? Is that being pursued at all, I've not heard anything about it for a few years now and that's a ton of money being lost every year even if it's $3 or 4 million that means the team has lost out on over $ 20 million in extra revenue so far (and I think they should get twice that). This has always been a huge mystery for me.

[lou]

Castellanos: .289 27 HR .337 OBP and .863 OPS. That's what some want to pay $15-17M a year for in free agency. There is another way to go.

Mets targeted JD Davis in last year's off season. Great AAA numbers, a year younger than Castellanos, and six years of control. Biggest factor: blocked by a strong Houston lineup. At the time of the Met acquisition for low level prospects, even I suggested that Davis would have been the best hitter in the Marlins batting order. His numbers this season: .308, 20 HR, .370 OBP and .888 OPS. He did that in 200 less AB than Castellanos.

Teams like the Yankees, Houston, Cubs, etc., who have an abundance of highly paid regulars, are places to shop for mid-twenties hitters who have nowhere to go with their present teams. That's where my focus would be. *** And there are more Jon Bertis out there!

They should do ALL OF THE ABOVE. Castellanos is a "sure thing." He's an .850+ OPS bat for the next 5-7 seasons. It's a low-risk signing, as long as the money makes sense. They should also be uncovering JD Davis types (which they did with Cooper and Rojas who were cheap low acquisition contributors) and Bertis (which they did with.... Berti), but those shouldn't be Plan A. These moves should be perpetual to always build depth. Maybe your boy Heineman will be this next year.

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There is a big "IF" too on all this.....do all those guys you mentioned make decent MLB players ? Just because they are highly touted doesn't mean they will make it. Of Diaz, Sanchez, VVM, Bleday, Guzman, Chisholm, Neidert, etc....if half of them make it as competant MLB players they will have done an outstanding job....the odds on all your trade/draft picks making it and being better than average, are not all that good. It's a crapshoot even more difficult than the NBA or NFL or even NHL, or so it seems. They already flamed out & plotzed on at least one, Lewis Brinson.

Will these guys have the money to spend before they can attract the public back to games ? What is still the holdup on naming rights for the stadium ? Is that being pursued at all, I've not heard anything about it for a few years now and that's a ton of money being lost every year even if it's $3 or 4 million that means the team has lost out on over $ 20 million in extra revenue so far (and I think they should get twice that). This has always been a huge mystery for me.

Jeter said last week there are active negotiations for the naming rights, but who knows what that means. I have to imagine something happens soon.

Also, the team needs to be better with active TV negotiations. Many here are more up to date on that, but I suspect a better product will be somewhat helpful as the Marlins can sell "we're going to be good for a decade with this farm and payroll."

[Maddawg]

Jeter said last week there are active negotiations for the naming rights, but who knows what that means. I have to imagine something happens soon.

Also, the team needs to be better with active TV negotiations. Many here are more up to date on that, but I suspect a better product will be somewhat helpful as the Marlins can sell "we're going to be good for a decade with this farm and payroll."

Well thank goodness for that...it's been a wasted source of income. $6 million naming rights would have paid for Granderson & Walker I believe with some left over.

I know the TV deal is coming up next year, and it would behoove them to get a better product on the field before that is signed.....I'm sure it's a tough sell right now.

[Lee Stone]

Speaking for myself, Kelly Sako is the best reason to watch Marlin baseball right now. She was a great hire.

[tjfla]

Speaking for myself, Kelly Sako is the best reason to watch Marlin baseball right now. She was a great hire.

Its Saco and looks great in heels

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Samson decided to throw Mike Berger under the bus. He said Berger told Loria to get Jim Benedict and that Berger and Benedict told Jeff to trade our young arms. So Mike Berger who now works for Milwaukee(and Jeter is still paying) screwed us over

Backstory on Mike Berger

In Arizona, Berger worked as a special assistant to the GM and a Major League scout. He assumed player-development duties in 2009, when A.J. Hinch was promoted to manager. A year later he was named Arizona's director of pro scouting, charged with overseeing the organization's scouting at the Major League and Minor League levels.
Berger also has a longstanding relationship with Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.When Loria owned Oklahoma City's Triple-A team, Berger was in that organization, and their paths also crossed when Loria owned the Montreal Expos.Berger played Minor League ball from 1980-93, and he has experience coaching and managing in the Minors.

We hired him as AGM

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article235337447.html

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It's either 20 or 21. The Astros did a full 3 year tank job, but they haven't had the backstory of the Marlins. I'm worried they push it one more (which does make sense on a very long term let's create draft capital level), but they really got to do something as there is a real fan component. I can wait another 100 loss season because I am a baseball loving swamp monster who can't quit and will be happy with a juggernaut in 4 years, I'm not sure the new ownership group can.

They practically have $40-45 million to spend on Urena, Conley, and free agents. That's still going to be an outrageously low payroll, but if we're talking 2-3 starting position players/pitchers, and 2-4 bench/bullpen arms with that money, they really can do a lot assuming Urena, Conley, and all the bench/bullpen guys are cumulatively going to cost under $12-15 million. The can spend $30+ million on 2-3 guys, and add in another $5 if Urena is shipped out and another $1+ if Conley is shipped out/DFA'd.

I can understand not spending all of it on Rendon/Cole (if either would even come), but I like the idea of two of Castro, Castellanos/Ozuna/maybe Puig, and Z. Wheeler with that money and that'll help a lot along with retaining Urena/Conley/building out a final roster with say Walker, Romo, and Maybin types. I mean, even if Walker, Romo, and Maybin are cumulatively 1 WAR (2.7 WAR in 2019 but that's inflated with Maybin having a truly great year for him), that's a big improvement over Granderson, Prado, and T. Guerrero (-3.2 WAR. Negative!).

They'll be looking pretty good on paper in 21 once Lewin, Jazz, Sanchez, Monte, Sixto, Neidert, Cabrera, Guzman, and Rogers show up, and maybe Bleday, Garrett, Scott, and VVM are ready too. Spending that money in 2020 on 2-3 year deals won't prevent them from doing anything. I think they gotta do it. Helps the fans, helps the team morale, gives Isan lineup protection and Sandy knowledge he doesn't have to be perfect because they might not be bottom 2 in runs scored, etc.

Only debate to me is, do we trust the new Castro? Is Castellanos going to be good enough at 1B/LF/RF to not be a total liability? Do we believe Puig isn't an asshole? Do we trust Wheeler's arm to hold up? That's it. Picking the right ones.

Puig is pretty much 0% chance of coming with Mattingly still here

[Nick]

Can we not quote anything David Samson says any more in this forum? I'd be thrilled if I never heard that name again.

[Nick]

Heineman's been pretty good the last two games. Finally getting some PT. I'd like to see him get a shot at the backup job starting next year. Although Holaday was quite good this year. Maybe the new 26th man might allow for 3 catchers. Heineman might do well in a role where he's like the main lefty-pinch hit bat/3rd catcher.