September 2019 Game Thread

[rmc523]

I know it's Boras, but he had this to say about Castellanos:

The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

Which is a concern some have had here (that he'd be alone/not have protection here).

[lou]

I know it's Boras, but he had this to say about Castellanos:



Which is a concern some have had here (that he'd be alone/not have protection here).

I actually think that's an argument against Castellanos so not sure what Boras is doing there. Maybe just trying to latch a contender.

That being said, I think Castellanos can suffer through 2020 and all of a sudden Anderson, Diaz, Diaz, Jazz, Sanchez, Harrison, Monte, and Alfaro, is the rest of the lineup, with Berti, Rojas, and Cooper on the bench, and Bleday coming up in the summer.

Even if half those guys fail, that'll work itself out into pretty much a full lineup.

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Price has to be right though*

Still not convinced picking up Castro's option or signing for a cheap 2 years isn't smarter. Dude has a 2.5 WAR his last 75 games. Think about that**

[rmc523]

I actually think that's an argument against Castellanos so not sure what Boras is doing there. Maybe just trying to latch a contender.

That being said, I think Castellanos can suffer through 2020 and all of a sudden Anderson, Diaz, Diaz, Jazz, Sanchez, Harrison, Monte, and Alfaro, is the rest of the lineup, with Berti, Rojas, and Cooper on the bench, and Bleday coming up in the summer.

Even if half those guys fail, that'll work itself out into pretty much a full lineup.

- - - - - - - - - -

Price has to be right though*

Still not convinced picking up Castro's option or signing for a cheap 2 years isn't smarter. Dude has a 2.5 WAR his last 75 games. Think about that**

Question for those that may know - if the Marlins were to approach Castro with say a 2/16 extension offer (spread the 16 over 2 years instead of one just for easy math), can they do that now and negate the option? Or do they have to buy out the option regardless?

In other words, can they throw out the 2020 option/buyout by offering him another deal? And can that be done after the season ends but before making a decision on the option? Is he still considered under contract at that point until option decisions are due? I think the answer is yes, but wasn't sure if things are different with it being an option.

[lou]

Question for those that may know - if the Marlins were to approach Castro with say a 2/16 extension offer (spread the 16 over 2 years instead of one just for easy math), can they do that now and negate the option? Or do they have to buy out the option regardless?

In other words, can they throw out the 2020 option/buyout by offering him another deal? And can that be done after the season ends but before making a decision on the option? Is he still considered under contract at that point until option decisions are due? I think the answer is yes, but wasn't sure if things are different with it being an option.

Yes they can wipe out the old deal and replace it.

It’s probably $20-24 million though. LeMahieu is a good comp.

[Nick]

How has Castro been at third base? I haven't been watching as much recently.

[lou]

How has Castro been at third base? I haven't been watching as much recently.

He looks alright. Analytics suggest slightly below average, but basically he's a neutral defender. I think he's fine.

Last 76 games, 315 PA, .314/.343/.541 (.884), with a sustainable .332 BABIP. His new batting approach and new bat selection is doing wonders. This isn't a hot streak at this point. This is a full half season split.

He can definitely handle 3B for 2 years and I can buy a reasonable 2 year deal versus shelling out 4+ for Castellanos. His weak 1st half may be a contract blessing in this regard as others may not trust me.

I really can't ignore a 2.3 WAR over 315 PA during this time. If he does 2.3 in a full season and he's making under $15, it's a win.

I still think they'd need another FA splash (maybe someone like Wheeler?) and then sign another stick for probably LF, but Castro is a star at this production level.

[Nick]

I don't think I'd do more than 2 years at $10 million per.

[lou]

I think we can live with this, right?

Alfaro, Holaday/Wallach
Cooper, N. Walker
Isan (Castro and Berti backups)
Rojas, Berti
Castro (Anderson and Rojas backups)
Anderson, Ramirez (Cooper additional backup)
C. Maybin, Sierra (Berti)
Castellanos (All OF can backup, Castellanos is much better in RF than LF)

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Elisier/Yamamoto/Dugger w/ Sixto and Neidert coming
Romo, Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham
Garcia, Conley, Quijada/other LHP acquired

(Maybin has a 1.5 WAR this year in under 300 PA. Yes, I will take Brinson off the hypothetical at this point)

I bet that team costs under $80 million.

Sixto, Neidert, Monte, Lewin, and Guzman are coming in the summer and that's really going to wipe out the last 3 guys in the bullpen, and two of Ramirez/Walker/Maybin/Sierra. No one is blocked.

I like it a lot, all things considered and assuming they won't spend on Rendon. No future payroll has been mortgaged if Castro is 2 years and Castellanos 4.

[Nick]

I think we can live with this, right?

Alfaro, Holaday/Wallach
Cooper, N. Walker
Isan (Castro and Berti backups)
Rojas, Berti
Castro (Anderson and Rojas backups)
Anderson, Ramirez (Cooper additional backup)
C. Maybin, Sierra (Berti)
Castellanos (All OF can backup, Castellanos is much better in RF than LF)

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Elisier/Yamamoto/Dugger w/ Sixto and Neidert coming
Romo, Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham
Garcia, Conley, Quijada/other LHP acquired

(Maybin has a 1.5 WAR this year in under 300 PA. Yes, I will take Brinson off the hypothetical at this point)

I bet that team costs under $80 million.

Sixto, Neidert, Monte, Lewin, and Guzman are coming in the summer and that's really going to wipe out the last 3 guys in the bullpen, and two of Ramirez/Walker/Maybin/Sierra. No one is blocked.

I like it a lot, all things considered and assuming they won't spend on Rendon. No future payroll has been mortgaged if Castro is 2 years and Castellanos 4.

So what's the goal with this roster? Be terrible instead of awful? To me that's a roster that's treading water. Of the 4 names you've bolded, 3 of those 4 names are bench players at best when we're ready to be good, and as we've seen this year, don't expect to get anything of value for them in trades. Then there is Castellanos, who plays the positions of probably 3 of our 4 best hitting prospects who should all be up by 2021. If we're not bringing in a Rendon or Cole, I'd rather just let guys like Ramirez, Sierra and Dean play.

[lou]

So what's the goal with this roster? Be terrible instead of awful? To me that's a roster that's treading water. Of the 4 names you've bolded, 3 of those 4 names are bench players at best when we're ready to be good, and as we've seen this year, don't expect to get anything of value for them in trades. Then there is Castellanos, who plays the positions of probably 3 of our 4 best hitting prospects who should all be up by 2021. If we're not bringing in a Rendon or Cole, I'd rather just let guys like Ramirez, Sierra and Dean play.

The goal is to not be horrible, create a better culture, and show the fans you care (especially after what the Dolphins are doing). How many years should they lose 100 games? After so many disappointing years?

Also, do we think the guys develop faster if there are actual players around them and not the -7 WAR collection of Granderson, Prado, Herrera, Riddle, Brinson, etc.? I'd LOVE Isan to be sandwiched between Anderson, Castro and Castellanos, Cooper.

I think that team above can get to around 30 WAR without any major breakouts. Currently, they are at 8.8 as a team. A lot of this is just shedding the deadweight (which is outrageously, outrageously, bad) and slightly ticking up the younger guy's progression (especially the SP and Diaz), but there is something to be said for filling out the team with legit guys.

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Also not worried about Castellanos' position if they were to sign him. So they have to trade an OF, or stick him at 1B if Lewin and Cooper flail? Also with a strong possibility of NL DH in 2 years? Not a big deal to me, but I do acknowledge there is some concern here so you bake it into his contract price.

[rmc523]

The goal is to not be horrible, create a better culture, and show the fans you care (especially after what the Dolphins are doing). How many years should they lose 100 games? After so many disappointing years?

Also, do we think the guys develop faster if there are actual players around them and not the -7 WAR collection of Granderson, Prado, Herrera, Riddle, Brinson, etc.? I'd LOVE Isan to be sandwiched between Anderson, Castro and Castellanos, Cooper.

I think that team above can get to around 30 WAR without any major breakouts. Currently, they are at 8.8 as a team. A lot of this is just shedding the deadweight (which is outrageously, outrageously, bad) and slightly ticking up the younger guy's progression (especially the SP and Diaz), but there is something to be said for filling out the team with legit guys.

- - - - - - - - - -

Also not worried about Castellanos' position if they were to sign him. So they have to trade an OF, or stick him at 1B if Lewin and Cooper flail? Also with a strong possibility of NL DH in 2 years? Not a big deal to me, but I do acknowledge there is some concern here so you bake it into his contract price.

And for that matter, if one of the guys (currently) below Castellanos on the OF depth chart are doing THAT well and you don't want to trade them, you could always flip Castellanos to an AL team down the road too if he's hitting well and replace him with the next guy.

I'm not big on the idea of bringing Maybin back again, but I guess he's an option.

[lou]

And for that matter, if one of the guys (currently) below Castellanos on the OF depth chart are doing THAT well and you don't want to trade them, you could always flip Castellanos to an AL team down the road too if he's hitting well and replace him with the next guy.

I'm not big on the idea of bringing Maybin back again, but I guess he's an option.

Yea. And what are the odds Lewin, Sanchez, and Bleday are all totally awesome in 1 year? We all expect Bleday to move fast, but he may be a 2022 player. Who knows? Also they dabbled with Sanchez in CF in AAA right? That would be an enormous development if he is "OK" out there.

The Maybin idea is solely, do nothing to block Monte. Anyone to help Sierra (and Berti) out there will do until June.

[Nick]

Detroit didn't exactly get a huge ransom for Castellanos when they dealt him. I'm not saying I'm against signing him, but it's gotta be at the right price/years.

[rmc523]

Yea. And what are the odds Lewin, Sanchez, and Bleday are all totally awesome in 1 year? We all expect Bleday to move fast, but he may be a 2022 player. Who knows? Also they dabbled with Sanchez in CF in AAA right? That would be an enormous development if he is "OK" out there.

The Maybin idea is solely, do nothing to block Monte. Anyone to help Sierra (and Berti) out there will do until June.

I'd be ok with bringing Maybin in as an intended backup all position OF guy. Let Sierra/whoever else play and see if they have anything, and only if they fall on their face do you throw Maybin in as a regular.

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Detroit didn't exactly get a huge ransom for Castellanos when they dealt him. I'm not saying I'm against signing him, but it's gotta be at the right price/years.

I think that's what everyone is saying - don't blow the bank for him, but if he falls into your lap at a reasonable price, you take him.

[Nick]

I'm thinking 3 years - $16 million per is what I'd be ok with. He's going to get a lot more than that I would have to think.