September 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

Even with last night's start, his FIP is almost 5, his xFIP is over 5, he has under 7 K/9 and over 4 BB/9. And he still basocally only has one MLB quality pitch in his fastball.

if by "almost 5" you mean 4.61, then sure its almost 5. If you really had a legitimate argument you wouldnt have to stretch his stats like that. He's got 214 innings in his career and 171 k's. Not a ton but not nearly as few as you like to make it out to be. He is 17th in hard hit ball %, ahead of names like Scherzer, Sale, Ryu, Morton, Cole.He is 11th in the league in soft hit %, ahead of names like Hendricks, Kershaw, Scherzer, Luis Castillo, Soroka, Greinke, Berrios, Sale, Nola, Verlander, Morton.

No one is saying he is a #1. But it's absurd to say he has the ceiling of a #5. He is a slight improvement in his control or put away stuff from being a potential #3 or even #2 in a best case scenario. And he just turned 24 2 days ago.

Your argument earlier in the year was that if you take away his best starts his numbers suck. He's now pitched in 28 games, 16 of which he has gone at least 6 innings, 17 of which he has given up 3 ER or less, although admittedly some of them it was because he didnt go deep enough into games because of too many walks. Regardless, his numbers indicate a pitcher with pretty hard to hit stuff and a guy who, when he gets beat, is usually the one beating himself as opposed to getting shelled.

He has a potential trevor bauer style breakout eventually written all over him.

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his numbers after the all star break also show a pretty significant step in effectiveness compared to the first half, and that's despite the fact that his first few starts after the all star break were awful.

[Lee Stone]

Alcantara's best comp is on the same staff. Jose Urena. They have near identical stuff, featuring primarily a fastball that tails and rises ... and results in balls too much of the time. Neither has a go-to strikeout pitch. Neither has K/W ratio that works for an elite starter.

And the comp goes much further. Urena had a great late second half to the 2018 season, just as Alcantara is doing this season. He was therefore considered the Marlin opening day starter this season.

Has Alcantara turned a corner that Urena couldn't? Can he engineer a WHIP under 1.20 next season? I have no idea.

On Alfaro: .098 BA with two out and runner(s) in scoring position this season. 19 whiffs in 41 ab. Just another good reason it's been an awful year.

[fish16]

Alfaro has produced a 2 war season from the catcher position. He hasn’t had an awful year

[Todd]

Alfaro goes where his defense takes him. He is horrid offensively.

[emkayseven]

.273/.314/.420 with a 93 OPS+ from the catcher position is not horrid offensively. Nor is it off from his career averages.

[Todd]

.273/.314/.420 with a 93 OPS+ from the catcher position is not horrid offensively. Nor is it off from his career averages.

His offensive WAR is 3rd lowest among NL catchers. And his mediocre stats are despite near .400 BABIP. Not to mention his >30% K rate, low BB rate, and non-existent pitch recognition.

[emkayseven]

Some names he's better than: Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Tucker Barnhart

[Lee Stone]

Having watched almost every inning of Marlin baseball this season, my impression of Alfaro: He runs fast and with good effort. He has a strong and generally accurate arm. His judgement at the plate ... pick your adjective ... is the worst of any player I've seen. Batting him fifth last night was ridiculous and the team paid for it. Lots of pitches get by him and he calls a shitty game. And take last night as an example ... his "framing" skills are piss poor. Dugger, in particular, couldn't get a single strike call on a corner. If the Marlins are going to be a competitive team, it won't happen with Alfaro behind the plate in my opinion.

[Todd]

And there are 10 catchers in the NL with a higher OPS+.

Alfaro is fine for now. But he is not a starting catcher on a good team.

[lou]

Some names he's better than: Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Tucker Barnhart

He makes a lot less money than all of those guys too, and has non-guaranteed contracts the next 4 years. He will probably max out around 4/$12 at absolute most unless he really breaks out and jacks 35+ one year. Then you don't care what you're paying him so it works either way.

Count me in the camp he will produce over 1.5+ WAR the next 4 years to make him a positive asset for the club. Note, he is at 1.4 WAR this season in 407 PA, and 4.5 WAR in 915 career PA. Even with a high BABIP (which I do think drops by 30-50 points longterm), he's still pacing as a 2+ WAR player with jacks and defense. Why are we annoyed?

He's probably a super premium backup floor (which is fine), with a probable outcome of a solid average starting catcher for the next 4 years, and has real star upside. Because.... call me an optimist, but I view his strikeout rate as something he can improve on and will pay huge dividends. If he drops that by 5% and his walks even tick up to 5-6%, which is not asking for a lot, he hits the ball so hard he's going to be a monster and a poor man's catcher Joey Gallo (absent the walks of course). That is a monster player with the position and defense. They know it too - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...link=mainstage. I don't know if he'll get there (I think it's unlikely, but there is hope), but if all we're going to get is a 2 WAR catcher for 4 years as they groom Banfield, Fortes, and whoever 2020's 2nd/3rd round catcher is, I'm totally fine with that. There are NUMEROUS other problems with the team before we get to this one.

[Lee Stone]

Developmentally, I would be playing Monte Harrison in CF every game the rest of this season. Couldn't care less about his qualifying time or whatever because the question right now is whether he can play in the majors or not. He needs the exposure and experience after missing so much time this season.

[lou]

And there are 10 catchers in the NL with a higher OPS+.

Alfaro is fine for now. But he is not a starting catcher on a good team.

NL Central leading Cardinals catchers have .5 WAR in 600 PA and Alfaro has 1.4 WAR in 400 PA. Alfaro makes a lot less money too.

These absolute statements are not accurate. There are many ways to slice an apple. He's also destroying Gomes/Suzuki (1st WC), would be a clear upgrade for the A's (2nd WC).

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Developmentally, I would be playing Monte Harrison in CF every game the rest of this season. Couldn't care less about his qualifying time or whatever because the question right now is whether he can play in the majors or not. He needs the exposure and experience after missing so much time this season.

Nope. You know where he can get the experience? Winter ball and AAA all of next season. There is no need to call him up for a 2020 Marlins team that will not be .500. Get back to me next September on this one.

[Todd]

Not sure I would use this years Cardinals as an example. They will probably be one of the worst hitting teams to ever win a division or even make the playoffs.

[Nick]

He makes a lot less money than all of those guys too, and has non-guaranteed contracts the next 4 years. He will probably max out around 4/$12 at absolute most unless he really breaks out and jacks 35+ one year. Then you don't care what you're paying him so it works either way.

Count me in the camp he will produce over 1.5+ WAR the next 4 years to make him a positive asset for the club. Note, he is at 1.4 WAR this season in 407 PA, and 4.5 WAR in 915 career PA. Even with a high BABIP (which I do think drops by 30-50 points longterm), he's still pacing as a 2+ WAR player with jacks and defense. Why are we annoyed?

He's probably a super premium backup floor (which is fine), with a probable outcome of a solid average starting catcher for the next 4 years, and has real star upside. Because.... call me an optimist, but I view his strikeout rate as something he can improve on and will pay huge dividends. If he drops that by 5% and his walks even tick up to 5-6%, which is not asking for a lot, he hits the ball so hard he's going to be a monster and a poor man's catcher Joey Gallo (absent the walks of course). That is a monster player with the position and defense. They know it too - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...link=mainstage. I don't know if he'll get there (I think it's unlikely, but there is hope), but if all we're going to get is a 2 WAR catcher for 4 years as they groom Banfield, Fortes, and whoever 2020's 2nd/3rd round catcher is, I'm totally fine with that. There are NUMEROUS other problems with the team before we get to this one.

Exactly, I understand Alfaro is a frustrating player to watch, but you'd be blind to not see the upside on this guy. Maybe he's done developing, maybe he just is what he is, but specifically plate discipline is something you can improve on no matter what age you are. The thing is with Alfaro is even though he may not be the player we think he can be yet, he at least provides some production despite his faults. *COUGH BRINSON*

[lou]

Not sure I would use this years Cardinals as an example. They will probably be one of the worst hitting teams to ever win a division or even make the playoffs.

So what? Alfaro is a starting catcher on at least 3 of the 10 playoff teams right now, and your comment was he is not a starting catcher on a playoff team.

We'd all love someone better and a stud like Realmuto, but he is a fine average starting player who doesn't hurt you, or an absolutely awesome championship calibre backup player (they are going to be good in 2022 right? He's still controlled for cheap). Good teams have guys like this, especially in their controlled years. With undeniable upside, unlike someone like Harold Ramirez. Alfaro at a 31% whiff (career 35.1%), 6% BB (career 4.2%) rate, is a monster player. As said, I don't think he'll necessarily get there, but these are the guys you keep around. He is not a top 15 problem in this organization right now.

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if by "almost 5" you mean 4.61, then sure its almost 5. If you really had a legitimate argument you wouldnt have to stretch his stats like that. He's got 214 innings in his career and 171 k's. Not a ton but not nearly as few as you like to make it out to be. He is 17th in hard hit ball %, ahead of names like Scherzer, Sale, Ryu, Morton, Cole.He is 11th in the league in soft hit %, ahead of names like Hendricks, Kershaw, Scherzer, Luis Castillo, Soroka, Greinke, Berrios, Sale, Nola, Verlander, Morton.

No one is saying he is a #1. But it's absurd to say he has the ceiling of a #5. He is a slight improvement in his control or put away stuff from being a potential #3 or even #2 in a best case scenario. And he just turned 24 2 days ago.

Your argument earlier in the year was that if you take away his best starts his numbers suck. He's now pitched in 28 games, 16 of which he has gone at least 6 innings, 17 of which he has given up 3 ER or less, although admittedly some of them it was because he didnt go deep enough into games because of too many walks. Regardless, his numbers indicate a pitcher with pretty hard to hit stuff and a guy who, when he gets beat, is usually the one beating himself as opposed to getting shelled.

He has a potential trevor bauer style breakout eventually written all over him.

- - - - - - - - - -

his numbers after the all star break also show a pretty significant step in effectiveness compared to the first half, and that's despite the fact that his first few starts after the all star break were awful.

We all like to dump on your optimism, some (a lot) more than most, but this is mostly accurate and I can't disagree with the main point. However, you should have stopped with the Bauer and 2nd half numbers (4.63 1st half FIP, 4.59 2nd half FIP, but he is whiffing 7.8 K/9 in 2nd half for theoretical progress. The fact he has maintained performance over the whole season I think is a positive statement for a 23 year old) part, as those tip you over the line just a little. He's not there yet. Give it another season.

Sandy is proving he should be in the rotation which is a great year for him IMO. If all they get is a "great 4," that's pretty good longterm. There is undeniable upside for more than that and I'm excited to see if that 2nd half K rate is not just a SSS and he is starting to develop a real out pitch. Sandy whiffing 8 K/9 and a small walk decrease is a legitimate performance explosion.

Also to note, Sandy is likely always going to outperform his FIP due to that soft contact you mentioned. He is currently out performing his FIP by 75 ERA points for his career. It may not be that dramatic forever, but that's a low 4 ERA starter with what his profile is now. I'm *SUPER* happy if Sandy is that over 180+ IP, with random CG shut out dominations.