July 2019 Game Thread

[Nick]

I'm pretty sure it's been widely reported this is true. It's how we ended up with Buck, Bell, etc.

I believe that's what was happening too. My point is, how could you say this was happening, and also argue that Mike Hill is a respected figure in the baseball community?

What you're describing is literally the most disrespectful thing you can do to an MLB General Manager, it's literally your boss not trusting you to do your job and he's still technically in that same job he was 4-5 years ago when it happened. He just took it. Even now, there are huge questions to how much involvement he has. At least in our community it doesn't seem like there's much belief that he's the guy running the show, all indications are it's Denbo, and I feel the perception in the MLB is probably the same. So what is Mike Hill at this point, beyond a guy that's just collecting a paycheck and occasionally they'll put him in the booth as a PR guy.

[lou]

re: Talking about fast tracking Cabrera, or others like Rogers. This is the 2020 40 man crunch. Which isn't bad, but there isn't room for pitchers:

The keep everyone 40 man

Alfaro
Wallach
Cooper
Anderson
TBD - FA BENCH VETERAN 1B/3B - Obvious need, Walker/Dietrich replacement
Diaz
TBD - FA SS < - DIDI(!!!!!)
Rojas < - Is actually really important looking at this depth chart, they need a quality guy to play everywhere with the youth
Riddle
Ramirez
Brinson
TBD - FA 1B/3B/OF < - They obviously need a starter here, and could move BA/GC to OF
Dean
Sierra
Monte
Brigman < - New. Seems like a backup MI they will keep with options
=16 Hitters

Urena - SP (9)
Caleb
Pablo
Sandy
Gallen
Richards
Yamamoto
Sixto < - New
Neidert < - New
Anderson - RHP (10)
Steckenrider
Elisier
Brice
Tayron
Brigham
Guzman
Holloway
Dugger < - New
Mejia < - New
Garcia - LHP (5)
Conley
Chen
Quijada
Stewart < - New

=24 Pitchers

Tweaks

I’d drop (1) Riddle and (2) Chen (both NOW), and trade (3) Urena as he makes the most money of the arms and (4) One of Tayron and Brice, as it’s difficult to have two OOO arms with that arm depth

That gives you 4 spots to play with (as well as the other "3" I am just awarding to various bat veterans I find reasonable to project).

The unprotected.

I don't know if anyone has a favorite here, but it's all RP arms.

“Whatever they get for Castro, Walker, Romo, Urena, and other trades”
Poteet
Noesi
Mills
Kinley
C. Smith
Graves
Eveld
Beggs
Castano
D. Lee
Milbrath

Reasonable hypothetical 40 man projection.

This gives a 36 man roster of, 15 bats and 21 P (8 SP, 13 RP):

C - Alfaro, Wallach
1B - Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - “Veteran”, Rojas, Brigman
3B - Anderson, “Veteran”
LF - H. Ramirez, Dean
CF - Brinson, Sierra, Monte
RF - “Veteran”

SP - Caleb, Pablo, Sandy, Gallen, Richards, Yamamoto, Sixto, Neidert,
RHP - Anderson, Steckenrider, Elisier, pick one Brice/Tayron, Brigham, Guzman, Holloway, Dugger, Mejia
LHP - Garcia, Conley, Quijada, Stewart

Given the depth chart, I think this is two bullpen lefties, another OF and another 1B/3B type who can hit. Then, sign veteran catchers and SS to MiLB deals to be your deeper backups in case there is a real injury disaster.

This is in good shape, but they need the room to protect those last few guys they think could be real BP arms or if they get 40 man options in upcoming trades/Rule V

2021

No one is a free agent besides Rojas and any 1 year veterans they sign. So they don't gain any room besides guys failing. Which could be a few, as the entire OF is ??? and some RP will be shed.

Notable prospect adds - Rogers, Garrett, Cabrera, Soriano, Devers, and B. Miller, and maybe guys like VVM get added quick as they are deemed ready.

They are going to have to clear some space for 2021.

Overall - The days of fleeting RP on the 40 man roster are about over and this is going to be a competitive depth chart very soon once the bats settle. I don't see them adding guys until they absolutely have to, as that unprotected RP list has a few names that could make it.

[Nick]

Really the only unprotected guy, I think I'd protect is Poteet. He's the one guy of those I feel confident will have a major league career. Will it be more than just Long Reliever/Spot Starter? Probably not, but at 24 years old, probably worth protecting. Going into this year I would've said Eveld would be a no-brainer for the 40-Man, but he's had a disastrous year.

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Also, I have questions about whether Brigman is worthy of a 40-man spot.

[fish16]

Really the only unprotected guy, I think I'd protect is Poteet. He's the one guy of those I feel confident will have a major league career. Will it be more than just Long Reliever/Spot Starter? Probably not, but at 24 years old, probably worth protecting. Going into this year I would've said Eveld would be a no-brainer for the 40-Man, but he's had a disastrous year.

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Also, I have questions about whether Brigman is worthy of a 40-man spot.

Agreed on brigman. He's done nothing this year to show he is worthy of a spot. No one will claim him in the rule 5

[rmc523]

I believe that's what was happening too. My point is, how could you say this was happening, and also argue that Mike Hill is a respected figure in the baseball community?

What you're describing is literally the most disrespectful thing you can do to an MLB General Manager, it's literally your boss not trusting you to do your job and he's still technically in that same job he was 4-5 years ago when it happened. He just took it. Even now, there are huge questions to how much involvement he has. At least in our community it doesn't seem like there's much belief that he's the guy running the show, all indications are it's Denbo, and I feel the perception in the MLB is probably the same. So what is Mike Hill at this point, beyond a guy that's just collecting a paycheck and occasionally they'll put him in the booth as a PR guy.

Because the baseball community knows the situation and looks past that, and looks at the moves the know he made (the "regular" baseball moves, not the bizarre out of nowhere fleecing ones that definitely have Loria's fingerprints on them.

It doesn't matter who was in the GM chair, Loria would've done the same thing.

[Nick]

Because the baseball community knows the situation and looks past that, and looks at the moves the know he made (the "regular" baseball moves, not the bizarre out of nowhere fleecing ones that definitely have Loria's fingerprints on them.

It doesn't matter who was in the GM chair, Loria would've done the same thing.

This is where I disagree. 1. A Billy Beane, Brian Cashman, Dave Dombrowski type would not have put themselves in that situation. 2. I think Mike Hill was hired because Loria knew he would be able to get away with this type of stuff more easily with Hill at the helm. There's no doubt in my mind that Loria's meddling got worse over time and specifically when Beinfest left and Hill took over.

[lou]

Really the only unprotected guy, I think I'd protect is Poteet. He's the one guy of those I feel confident will have a major league career. Will it be more than just Long Reliever/Spot Starter? Probably not, but at 24 years old, probably worth protecting. Going into this year I would've said Eveld would be a no-brainer for the 40-Man, but he's had a disastrous year.

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Also, I have questions about whether Brigman is worthy of a 40-man spot.

I don't really disagree with you, and I'd add Noesi (who has years of control). Noesi actually could be a good grab for a playoff team right now to stick in AAA., but thats another thing. You just have to start making decisions if you wnat to protect those guys, like, do you like one or both of them over Brice/Tayron and/or worth DFA'ing Conley over one? I think those are tougher choices, but you keep the MLB talent. Risk them in to Rule V.

I don't disagree about Brigman either, but he seems like a guy they would protect as a do everything 25th man defender. They've carried Rivera and guys like that for years. Maybe someone like Berti beats him out. Important concept is, there will extremely likely be that type of player on the 40 man so if not Brigman, it's Riddle, Berti, Rivera, or someone else. He doesn't impact the protection numbers here come opening day.

[fish16]

This is where I disagree. 1. A Billy Beane, Brian Cashman, Dave Dombrowski type would not have put themselves in that situation. 2. I think Mike Hill was hired because Loria knew he would be able to get away with this type of stuff more easily with Hill at the helm. There's no doubt in my mind that Loria's meddling got worse over time and specifically when Beinfest left and Hill took over.

Dombrowski literally dismantled this entire team following the 97 world series at the directions of the owner in bad trades. Billy Beane too has had to make bad moves due to the demands of the owner. If you dont think Brian Cashman was given a directive to make certain moves when George was alive youre naive. This happens to most GMs where they are forced to make bad baseball moves at the insistence of a meddling owner.

[Nick]

Dombrowski literally dismantled this entire team following the 97 world series at the directions of the owner in bad trades. Billy Beane too has had to make bad moves due to the demands of the owner. If you dont think Brian Cashman was given a directive to make certain moves when George was alive youre naive. This happens to most GMs where they are forced to make bad baseball moves at the insistence of a meddling owner.

There's a difference between an owner forcing the GM to make a move due to financial restraints and an owner determining the details of the move and making that move themselves, you've gotta realize that. I forgot Cashman was around when Steinbrenner was still alive, so maybe that's a bad example, and it's kinda harder to be forced into bad baseball moves when you have unlimited funds. There was certainly a point where Steinbrenner took a step back, after he'd run the Yankees into the ground, when he realized he had to let his FO do their jobs, not that he ever stepped back completely, but it seems Loria never took a step back.

[fish16]

baseball america has updated their top 10 marlins prospects- They go Sixto, Bleday, Gallen, Diaz, Cabrera, Monte, Mesa, Garrett, Rogers, Devers.

[Nick]

baseball america has updated their top 10 marlins prospects- They go Sixto, Bleday, Gallen, Diaz, Cabrera, Monte, Mesa, Garrett, Rogers, Devers.

Not far off from what I'd have. I'd probably swap Gallen and Cabrera. Mesa wouldn't be on there. Maybe Kameron Misner over Devers to round out 9 and 10.

[geemoney]

Just noticed Prado in the dugout. He was activated and Riddle was put on the IL.

[fish16]

caleb smith desperately needs to improve on being more efficient with his pitches. He will never be more than a #3 type guy if he consistently never makes it past the 5th inning because his pitch counts are so high.

[lou]

baseball america has updated their top 10 marlins prospects- They go Sixto, Bleday, Gallen, Diaz, Cabrera, Monte, Mesa, Garrett, Rogers, Devers.

I believe you said Rogers is definitely a top 100 prospect. So the Marlins have 9 or is BA wrong?

I mention not to terrorize you, but to take this as a moment of not being like every fan and over rating your own guys. That top 10 list is great. Rogers is having a good year. But just because this is the first time in a long time the Marlins have a ton of interesting guys in the minors and most are performing well, doesn't mean they collectively are just huge prospects. Even if they are huge prospects/hope for us. We still don't know a lot about these guys.

Personally, I'd put them Sixto, Bleday, Diaz, Gallen, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Monte, Neidert, and Devers. If we assume Gallen and Diaz graduate soon, it's adding VVM and Scott as I will buy their defensive floor and 1st round ceiling. I don't believe in Monte's floor even if his ceiling is astronomical and would take the higher floor pitchers over him. That's pretty much the only major tweak I'd do from BA.

I think the over/under for next year will be 3.5 guys, with the only debate being if Cabrera and Monte end up in the 90s (even if I don't put Monte there, I can see the scouts still doing it). Assuming Gallen/Diaz graduate of course as they are 100% there if not. Maybe someone has a killer second half though and it ticks up. We can hope!

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caleb smith desperately needs to improve on being more efficient with his pitches. He will never be more than a #3 type guy if he consistently never makes it past the 5th inning because his pitch counts are so high.

Eventually the Marlins will start throwing waves of relievers like the Rays and everyone else in baseball, so if Smith is 12-20 batter type pitcher, that is more than fine for him to throw a good 150 innings before handing it over to a fresh arm first time through the lineup.

Potentially epic trade for him and Cooper.

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And Tayron sucks. Change my analysis above to keeping Brice and DFA'ing Tayron.

[fish16]

i would say that rogers is a top prospect, and im not overrating anything. He's been phenomenal, in an admittedly great pitchers ballpark. I would have him ahead of Monte and Mesa. So yes, I believe the marlins have 7 guys who should be at least around the top 100 list for the time being before some of their prospect status goes away in Sixto, Bleday, Diaz, Gallen, Cabrera, Garrett, and Rogers.

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pretty sure you all told me i overrated everyone last year as well when i said we have phenomenal SP depth

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and saying someone is a top 100 prospect in baseball does not make them a "huge prospect"