May Game Thread

[lou]

WHAT? Mike Hill is only the GM to go on TV and Meetings and Denbo is dealing with decisions in the minors right now?

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Everyone knows Mattingly loves going with same 3 RP but they really need to start sending guys down and calling up fresh arms.

Fernandez and Ferrell will be up by July but we have atleast 4/5 arms(SP and RP) in AAA who could be in the majors getting looks instead of wearing out Anderson,Steck,Conley

SP-Elieser/Gallen
RP-Quijada,Keller,Brigham

I wouldn't think wearing out is the right word, but they got to get Steckenrider and Conley straight so they can move them at the deadline. They need to string together 15-20 solid appearances next 2 months to alleviate some SSS concerns. Steckenrider has a sub 1 whip and plus 6 era so something is going to give with him soon.

Certainly they have a ton of guys to call up but who cares. It's not a race. When Urena, Romo, Steckenrider, and Conley are moved, and inevitably others are injured or are sent down for ineffectiveness, they'll have just enough arms to get through the year and we'll see what they got.

There isn't much to do with the team besides treading water and getting to July moves.

[fish16]

I can't believe people want to trade Smith or Anderson either. Those are exactly the kind of breakouts the team needs to start developing a core - a core said fan base needs to see sticking around.

They can trade Chen, Romo, Castro, Prado, Walker, and Granderson, and if they get a good deal (as they have 2+ years of service time at minimum), Conley, Steckenrider, Urena, and Rojas. I mean that is a shitload of guys they can move this summer.

Everyone else stays. Everyone. Who knows what's going to happen.

Smith and Pablo turning into a 2/3, or 3/3, is a best case scenario.

While I agree id prefer to keep Smith, this team desperately needs to do something to improve the hitting in the organization. Depends how they do it, but my only real point here is that id be ok with them dealing from the strength of their SP to address the hitting if they can get really good value. I would only deal Smith if they could get a top 50 hitting prospect and another borderline top 100 hitting guy. Like Yordan Alvarez + another guy. Just saying they might be smart to shop some of these arms for impact bats.

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Exactly u trade Romo,Grandy,Walker,Prado,Castro and if solid offers(NOT Top 5 prospect like they wanted LY) u talk Conley,Steck,Urena,Rojas and Anderson

Now if some team offers u a crazy offer(u know like Jeff used to do) for Smith,Lopez,Gallen then u consider it

Eventually they will have to make decisions because of the 40 man but they are fine right now

youre not going to get anything of significance for Romo, Walker, Granderson, Prado, or Castro if you can get any prospect at all.

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Matt Kemp got released by the reds. He's nothing special but id take a flier on him and see if we can get some OF production out of him for the rest of the year and possibly deal him for a minor prospect at the deadline. We are desperate for actual ML quality bats in the OF.

[tjfla]

While I agree id prefer to keep Smith, this team desperately needs to do something to improve the hitting in the organization. Depends how they do it, but my only real point here is that id be ok with them dealing from the strength of their SP to address the hitting if they can get really good value. I would only deal Smith if they could get a top 50 hitting prospect and another borderline top 100 hitting guy. Like Yordan Alvarez + another guy. Just saying they might be smart to shop some of these arms for impact bats.

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youre not going to get anything of significance for Romo, Walker, Granderson, Prado, or Castro if you can get any prospect at all.

U will get 7-8 prospects and some IFA Cash for them. Will they be Top 100 guys? NO Will they be McKenzie Mills? NO but 7-8 prospects for guys that won't be here in 2020 is solid. This system still needs depth

Paddack/Williams/German/Lopez/Gallen were not great prospects but scouting dept did their jobs

[fish16]

U will get 7-8 prospects and some IFA Cash for them. Will they be Top 100 guys? NO Will they be McKenzie Mills? NO but 7-8 prospects for guys that won't be here in 2020 is solid. This system still needs depth

im cool with depth and the reason they would do that, im just saying there is no chance you get 7-8 different guys for that collection of shitty players. Only guys i could see netting us a prospect are Castro, Romo, maybe Walker if he keeps up the mid .700's OPS, and then conley and Steck.

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Id start off by Dealing Urena for a similar player in a similar situation but as a hitter. A guy who is a quality major league bat who is 2-3 years off from free agency who will be able to plug a position like 1b for 2-3 years. Thats why i think Schwarber is the perfect matchup for Urena and maybe a bullpen arm. They have a surplus of guys and 1b will never be open for Schwarber there and we have a surplus of SP with Gallen also knocking on the door and a hitting deficiency that needs to be adddressed. This makes even more sense if you think about what we have in terms of 1b prospects and power hitting in the organization.

Then you evaluate from there maybe after the draft and deadline and see where your situation might be then. I just dont want to deal Urena for the group of prospects you would get for him. I think it makes more sense to make it a straight up major leaguer for major league move.

[tjfla]

im cool with depth and the reason they would do that, im just saying there is no chance you get 7-8 different guys for that collection of shitty players. Only guys i could see netting us a prospect are Castro, Romo, maybe Walker if he keeps up the mid .700's OPS, and then conley and Steck.

U will get atleast 1 for each of them. Romo and Castro(with buyout cash) probably gets u 2

The Maybin deal LY is the baseline.

Romo-2,Castro-2,Grandy-1,Walker-1,Prado-1

When I say 2 I mean 1 will probably be some DSL or 26 yr old AA guy they like, Its about adding depth/getting guys the scouting guys like into the system

[fish16]

U will get atleast 1 for each of them. Romo and Castro(with buyout cash) probably gets u 2

The Maybin deal LY is the baseline.

Romo-2,Castro-2,Grandy-1,Walker-1,Prado-1

When I say 2 I mean 1 will probably be some DSL or 26 yr old AA guy they like, Its about adding depth/getting guys the scouting guys like into the system

I wouldnt mind attacking some guys they think could be under valued relievers like they did with Anderson. I dont think youre going to get anything of significance with a hitter or SP and the league has shown in recent years that they very often under value these RP prospects that might be a little bit older but put up shut down numbers and have ML stuff.

[lou]

While I agree id prefer to keep Smith, this team desperately needs to do something to improve the hitting in the organization. Depends how they do it, but my only real point here is that id be ok with them dealing from the strength of their SP to address the hitting if they can get really good value. I would only deal Smith if they could get a top 50 hitting prospect and another borderline top 100 hitting guy. Like Yordan Alvarez + another guy. Just saying they might be smart to shop some of these arms for impact bats.

No.

No. No. No. No.

The "strength" in the SP happens in 18 months if 6-7 of these guys look like starters and the full bullpen we expect emerges. You don't trade from this pool -yet- as you need to develop the staff first. Once you get the arms, you can move excess. There is no excess right now. You can't anticipate them all working out. Trading Smith for a top 50 hitting prospect is insane. That is a Loria move.

[emkayseven]

No.

No. No. No. No.

The "strength" in the SP happens in 18 months if 6-7 of these guys look like starters and the full bullpen we expect emerges. You don't trade from this pool -yet- as you need to develop the staff first. Once you get the arms, you can move excess. There is no excess right now. You can't anticipate them all working out. Trading Smith for a top 50 hitting prospect is insane. That is a Loria move.

This is exactly what I was about to post.

If you want to trade from the “strength” of SP then you trade a minor league pitcher for a minor league bat. What you’re suggesting is how you end up with Maybin/Miller trades. You don’t trade an established major league player for a minor league player to clear way for other minor league players. In the Yordan Alvarez scenario we’re down one 2 starter in favor of guys who have never performed in the majors. Just doesn’t make sense.

[fish16]

No.

No. No. No. No.

The "strength" in the SP happens in 18 months if 6-7 of these guys look like starters and the full bullpen we expect emerges. You don't trade from this pool -yet- as you need to develop the staff first. Once you get the arms, you can move excess. There is no excess right now. You can't anticipate them all working out. Trading Smith for a top 50 hitting prospect is insane. That is a Loria move.

It's not insane if you are confident that between the current crop of guys from MLB to Jupiter you have at least 5 other guys who will develop into MLB rotation pieces over the next 2-3 years. It would depend on the exact offer of hitting prospects, but if you can still have confidence that you have 5 quality MLB rotation pieces including a potential ace in Sixto due to the emphasis on building pitching depth the last few years, it could make sense if the right offer presented itself to use smith as the piece to use to get a huge return of hitting prospects.

[lou]

It's not insane if you are confident that between the current crop of guys from MLB to Jupiter you have at least 5 other guys who will develop into MLB rotation pieces over the next 2-3 years. It would depend on the exact offer of hitting prospects, but if you can still have confidence that you have 5 quality MLB rotation pieces including a potential ace in Sixto due to the emphasis on building pitching depth the last few years, it could make sense if the right offer presented itself to use smith as the piece to use to get a huge return of hitting prospects.

Do they have 5 guys that will develop into #3 SP or better? I doubt it.

And following your argument, wouldn't it make more sense to get them all to prove it at the MLB level and then a $20 million dollar minor league FV50/FV45 surplus value asset triples in value.

End of the day, they need to keep all of their arms, keep the best 4 SP, sign another one in 2021, and trade everything else for bats.

You don't need a perfect team on paper in May 2019. You have 2 off seasons to fill holes and don't go creating some. Patience.

Honestly, I'm stunned you aren't happy and want to tinker. Caleb and Pablo with top 10 FIPs in baseball is the literal best case scenario. Getting one breakout like that would have been a home run for the longterm projection. Getting two is incredible.

[fish16]

Do they have 5 guys that will develop into #3 SP or better? I doubt it.

And following your argument, wouldn't it make more sense to get them all to prove it at the MLB level and then a $20 million dollar minor league FV50/FV45 surplus value asset triples in value.

End of the day, they need to keep all of their arms, keep the best 4 SP, sign another one in 2021, and trade everything else for bats.

You don't need a perfect team on paper in May 2019. You have 2 off seasons to fill holes and don't go creating some. Patience.

Honestly, I'm stunned you aren't happy and want to tinker. Caleb and Pablo with top 10 FIPs in baseball is the literal best case scenario. Getting one breakout like that would have been a home run for the longterm projection. Getting two is incredible.

I dont necessarily disagree with you and i love smith and would be cool with him being a long term #2 along with Lopez and then ideally Sixto becomes an ace then you have a great top 3 and you havent even seen Gallen, Rogers, Garrett, Cabrera, etc. My main point was that this team needs to do something to drastically address the hitting but maybe things look differently after the draft and if we are able to steal a fast moving power bat like Vaughn.

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Regardless of anything, I think Pablo and Smith are at least legit #3's with the possibility to be more and that is huge moving forward. If, and this is a huge if, but if Sixto becomes what we think he becomes, we are set up phenomenally at the top of the rotation for years.

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Lou how would you go about addressing the lineup because at this point we need like 6/8ths of a longterm lineup filled out if you consider Alfaro and Anderson to be longterm lineup pieces?

[fauowls44]

Can anyone explain why Isaac Galloway is still here and Harold Ramirez (or Dean) is not? He's hitting .167 with an OPS under .400. He's basically older, less talented Brinson.

I know they don't have any other true CF on the roster, but Herrera or Berti can play out there for the time being. Putting Herrera/Berti in CF, Anderson back at 3rd, and Ramirez in RF would instantly make the offense at least somewhat better.

[fish16]

Can anyone explain why Isaac Galloway is still here and Harold Ramirez (or Dean) is not? He's hitting .167 with an OPS under .400. He's basically older, less talented Brinson.

I know they don't have any other true CF on the roster, but Herrera or Berti can play out there for the time being. Putting Herrera/Berti in CF, Anderson back at 3rd, and Ramirez in RF would instantly make the offense at least somewhat better.

It makes 0 sense. They are taking an already bad hitting roster and not even playing the best or youngest guys. Ramirez, Dean, and Riddle should be up here for Herrera, Galloway, and Burti.

[Erick]

Thats fair but I disagree with you.

There’s no such thing as analytics players or whatever you labeled them. For all we know, they liked Brinson and Harrison because of their exit velocities. Nobody really knows.

[lou]

Lou how would you go about addressing the lineup because at this point we need like 6/8ths of a longterm lineup filled out if you consider Alfaro and Anderson to be longterm lineup pieces?

First, you trade Chen, Romo, Castro, Prado, Walker, and Granderson, and if they get a good deal Conley, Steckenrider, Urena, and Rojas, for BPA. It would be nice to target bats, but they are still in the acquire talent phase of the rebuild. BPA and ties go to bats/bullpen lefties. They aren't getting much here, but optimistically, maybe that turns into 1-2 bench players and 1-2 good pen lefties. That's reasonable, and also important to fill out the back end spots on the team with CC players. They need all the money they can get.

Second, you let things play out with everyone else and see how things look at the end of the year. There are going to be injuries. There are going to be let-downs. There are going to be breakouts. There isn't enough data to know what the 2021 team looks like yet. You flat out, do nothing and let the kids play. I'm encouraged by Monte (BB% increase/K% decrease, BABIP crazy but he's hitting them), Diaz (Big 10% K rate decrease), Sierra (hitting again, was a top 100 FG prospect a year ago. Still profiles as a good player if he is positively defensively and gets on base enough), Devers (he's hitting, BABIP is high but its encouraging), E. Hernandez (dealing, the HBP numbers are crazy though), and especially Gallen (just awesome. He has smoked AAA for 190 IP now). Who knows how that list is going to shift and what can be counted on. Sixto can make a big impact here by July too.

You get the bats when you have viable MLB players to trade and money. $50 million in free agency money in 2 years is 3 big time players. If they develop 7 SP who are #4s or better, trading 2 of the lesser ones is going to be like getting two Anderson and Alfaros on the spot. Also, don't forget they will have super premium picks for the next two years. If they next group of prospects look good, and the Scott/Rogers/Garret/Banfield group start working out, they can then do a reverse-Yelich trade and trade three guys for another bat. If everyone is cheap and they have the team filled out for years, trading prospects is irrelevant to get a big name. This is where the bats come from. Trading 1-2 SP (once the team knows it can fill a rotation which we don't know!), signing 1-2, and dipping into the prospect pool in 21/22 for another one.

Let them play. You're conceptually not wrong with moving SP, but you are, at minimum, 14 months early on wanting to move any SP besides Urena.